Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 4–9 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 20.4% | 23.6% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 21.9% | 20.3–23.7% | 19.8–24.1% | 19.4–24.6% | 18.7–25.4% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 19.8% | 18.2–21.5% | 17.8–22.0% | 17.4–22.4% | 16.7–23.2% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 10.6% | 9.4–11.9% | 9.1–12.3% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.3–13.3% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
| Norgesdemokratene | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Konservativt | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Liberalistene | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Pensjonistpartiet | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 36 | 44 | 38–45 | 38–47 | 38–47 | 38–47 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 46 | 38–46 | 37–46 | 37–46 | 37–46 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 39 | 35–39 | 32–39 | 32–39 | 31–44 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 16 | 16–19 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 |
| Rødt | 8 | 9 | 1–10 | 1–11 | 1–11 | 1–12 |
| Venstre | 8 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 3–11 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 8 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–7 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
| Norgesdemokratene | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konservativt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberalistene | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pensjonistpartiet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 19% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 40 | 2% | 80% | |
| 41 | 5% | 78% | |
| 42 | 13% | 73% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 61% | |
| 44 | 45% | 60% | Median |
| 45 | 7% | 15% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 47 | 8% | 8% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 6% | 91% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 40 | 32% | 85% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 52% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 52% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 52% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 51% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 51% | |
| 46 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 35 | 7% | 93% | |
| 36 | 6% | 86% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 38 | 14% | 79% | |
| 39 | 64% | 65% | Median |
| 40 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 53% | 99.5% | Median |
| 17 | 7% | 46% | |
| 18 | 7% | 39% | |
| 19 | 24% | 32% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 22 | 6% | 7% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 55% | |
| 3 | 0% | 55% | |
| 4 | 0% | 55% | |
| 5 | 0% | 55% | |
| 6 | 0% | 55% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 55% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 55% | Last Result |
| 9 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 10 | 23% | 29% | |
| 11 | 6% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 38% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 9 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 10 | 0.9% | 46% | |
| 11 | 45% | 45% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 60% | 93% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 33% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 20% | |
| 11 | 19% | 19% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 2 | 32% | 92% | |
| 3 | 59% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 63% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 37% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Industri- og Næringspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Norgesdemokratene
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Konservativt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Liberalistene
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalistene page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Pensjonistpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 104 | 100% | 94–105 | 94–105 | 94–105 | 92–105 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 71 | 97 | 99.5% | 89–98 | 88–98 | 88–98 | 84–98 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 96 | 98.8% | 87–97 | 86–97 | 86–97 | 83–97 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 65 | 93 | 92% | 85–94 | 83–94 | 83–94 | 80–94 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 57 | 83 | 8% | 77–83 | 74–85 | 74–85 | 73–85 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 72 | 0.6% | 72–82 | 72–82 | 72–82 | 72–86 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet | 97 | 71 | 0.4% | 71–80 | 71–80 | 71–80 | 71–84 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 95 | 74 | 0% | 69–74 | 65–75 | 65–75 | 65–77 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 64 | 0% | 64–74 | 64–75 | 64–75 | 64–76 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 71 | 0% | 67–72 | 62–73 | 62–73 | 62–74 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet | 89 | 70 | 0% | 66–70 | 61–71 | 61–71 | 61–73 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 62 | 0% | 57–62 | 53–64 | 53–64 | 53–64 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 82 | 56 | 0% | 50–58 | 49–58 | 49–58 | 47–59 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 58 | 0% | 48–58 | 48–58 | 48–58 | 48–58 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 54 | 0% | 48–57 | 48–57 | 48–57 | 46–57 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 53 | 0% | 47–54 | 45–54 | 45–54 | 45–54 |
| Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 21 | 0% | 19–22 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 13–25 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 94 | 12% | 98.6% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 86% | Last Result |
| 97 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 98 | 24% | 85% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 61% | |
| 100 | 7% | 61% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 54% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 54% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 54% | Median |
| 104 | 8% | 53% | |
| 105 | 45% | 45% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 88 | 6% | 98.5% | |
| 89 | 25% | 92% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 67% | |
| 91 | 5% | 67% | |
| 92 | 7% | 62% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 55% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 54% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 54% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 54% | Median |
| 97 | 9% | 53% | |
| 98 | 45% | 45% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 98.8% | Majority |
| 86 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 87 | 25% | 92% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 67% | |
| 89 | 6% | 67% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 91 | 7% | 61% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 54% | |
| 93 | 0% | 54% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 54% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 54% | Median |
| 96 | 8% | 53% | |
| 97 | 45% | 45% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 83 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 85 | 19% | 92% | Majority |
| 86 | 6% | 73% | |
| 87 | 5% | 67% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 89 | 7% | 61% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 54% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 54% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 54% | Median |
| 93 | 9% | 54% | |
| 94 | 45% | 45% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 77 | 19% | 92% | |
| 78 | 7% | 73% | |
| 79 | 5% | 66% | |
| 80 | 7% | 61% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 54% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 54% | |
| 83 | 45% | 54% | Median |
| 84 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 85 | 8% | 8% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 53% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 47% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 75 | 0% | 46% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 77 | 8% | 46% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 38% | |
| 79 | 5% | 38% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 33% | Median |
| 81 | 19% | 32% | |
| 82 | 13% | 14% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 53% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 47% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 46% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 76 | 8% | 45% | |
| 77 | 5% | 38% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 33% | |
| 79 | 19% | 33% | Median |
| 80 | 12% | 14% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 69 | 7% | 91% | |
| 70 | 5% | 83% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 78% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 78% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 74 | 69% | 77% | Median |
| 75 | 6% | 7% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 53% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 47% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 46% | |
| 68 | 8% | 46% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 38% | |
| 70 | 23% | 38% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 14% | Last Result, Median |
| 73 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 74 | 6% | 14% | |
| 75 | 6% | 7% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 67 | 8% | 91% | |
| 68 | 5% | 83% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 78% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 78% | |
| 71 | 45% | 77% | Median |
| 72 | 25% | 33% | |
| 73 | 6% | 7% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 66 | 12% | 90% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 78% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 78% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 70 | 69% | 77% | Median |
| 71 | 7% | 8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 57 | 13% | 91% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 59 | 19% | 78% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 59% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 59% | Last Result |
| 62 | 51% | 58% | Median |
| 63 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 64 | 7% | 7% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 51 | 5% | 89% | |
| 52 | 7% | 85% | |
| 53 | 6% | 78% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 71% | |
| 55 | 19% | 71% | |
| 56 | 6% | 52% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 46% | |
| 58 | 45% | 45% | Median |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 48 | 19% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 81% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 80% | |
| 51 | 12% | 79% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 67% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 67% | |
| 54 | 6% | 66% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 60% | |
| 56 | 7% | 60% | Median |
| 57 | 0.2% | 53% | |
| 58 | 53% | 53% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 9% | 98.5% | |
| 49 | 5% | 90% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 51 | 13% | 84% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 71% | |
| 53 | 19% | 71% | |
| 54 | 6% | 52% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 46% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 45% | |
| 57 | 45% | 45% | Median |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 47 | 6% | 90% | |
| 48 | 7% | 85% | |
| 49 | 7% | 78% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 71% | |
| 51 | 19% | 71% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 52% | |
| 53 | 6% | 51% | |
| 54 | 45% | 45% | Median |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 16 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 19 | 14% | 92% | |
| 20 | 13% | 78% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 65% | |
| 22 | 45% | 46% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Respons Analyse
- Commissioner(s): VG
- Fieldwork period: 4–9 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.99%