Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 1–2 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 20.4% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 16.6% | 15.2–18.2% | 14.8–18.6% | 14.4–19.0% | 13.7–19.8% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 10.2% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.5–12.2% | 7.9–12.9% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.1–9.2% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 36 | 43 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 36–50 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 38 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 32–44 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 31 | 27–36 | 26–37 | 26–37 | 24–37 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 18 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 12 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 8–16 |
| Venstre | 8 | 10 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 3–14 |
| Rødt | 8 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 1–12 | 1–13 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 3 | 2–8 | 1–9 | 1–9 | 1–9 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–7 |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 12% | 91% | |
| 41 | 10% | 80% | |
| 42 | 12% | 70% | |
| 43 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 44 | 22% | 45% | |
| 45 | 6% | 24% | |
| 46 | 5% | 17% | |
| 47 | 6% | 13% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 3% | 97% | |
| 34 | 6% | 94% | |
| 35 | 9% | 88% | |
| 36 | 15% | 79% | |
| 37 | 9% | 65% | |
| 38 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 39 | 14% | 47% | |
| 40 | 23% | 32% | |
| 41 | 5% | 9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 5% | 94% | |
| 28 | 11% | 89% | |
| 29 | 8% | 78% | |
| 30 | 13% | 71% | |
| 31 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 32 | 5% | 46% | |
| 33 | 14% | 41% | |
| 34 | 8% | 27% | |
| 35 | 7% | 19% | |
| 36 | 7% | 12% | |
| 37 | 5% | 5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 14 | 9% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 13% | 90% | |
| 16 | 10% | 77% | |
| 17 | 14% | 66% | |
| 18 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 33% | |
| 20 | 7% | 17% | |
| 21 | 5% | 10% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98% | |
| 10 | 7% | 91% | |
| 11 | 23% | 84% | |
| 12 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 13 | 20% | 44% | |
| 14 | 15% | 24% | |
| 15 | 8% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 7 | 6% | 98% | |
| 8 | 21% | 91% | Last Result |
| 9 | 16% | 71% | |
| 10 | 35% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 9% | 20% | |
| 12 | 8% | 11% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 7 | 6% | 96% | |
| 8 | 25% | 90% | Last Result |
| 9 | 22% | 65% | Median |
| 10 | 28% | 43% | |
| 11 | 8% | 14% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10% | 100% | |
| 2 | 35% | 90% | |
| 3 | 14% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 41% | |
| 5 | 0% | 41% | |
| 6 | 7% | 41% | |
| 7 | 17% | 34% | |
| 8 | 10% | 17% | |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32% | 100% | |
| 1 | 17% | 68% | |
| 2 | 48% | 51% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Industri- og Næringspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 97 | 100% | 93–103 | 91–104 | 90–104 | 88–107 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 71 | 90 | 88% | 84–95 | 83–95 | 80–95 | 78–98 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 85 | 51% | 80–91 | 79–92 | 77–92 | 75–94 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 65 | 83 | 42% | 79–90 | 77–90 | 75–91 | 74–92 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 81 | 21% | 76–87 | 74–88 | 72–89 | 72–92 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt | 97 | 76 | 3% | 71–82 | 70–84 | 70–85 | 68–86 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 95 | 72 | 0.1% | 68–79 | 66–80 | 64–82 | 64–83 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 57 | 74 | 0.1% | 70–79 | 68–80 | 67–81 | 66–83 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 71 | 0% | 67–77 | 65–78 | 63–80 | 63–81 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 69 | 0% | 64–74 | 62–75 | 61–75 | 59–80 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet | 89 | 68 | 0% | 63–72 | 62–74 | 61–75 | 60–76 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 82 | 56 | 0% | 50–60 | 49–62 | 49–63 | 48–65 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 55 | 0% | 51–59 | 50–60 | 50–62 | 48–63 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 54 | 0% | 50–58 | 49–60 | 47–61 | 45–61 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 51 | 0% | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–59 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 50 | 0% | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–56 | 43–58 |
| Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 23 | 0% | 19–26 | 19–27 | 18–27 | 15–29 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 92 | 2% | 95% | |
| 93 | 12% | 93% | |
| 94 | 6% | 81% | |
| 95 | 9% | 75% | |
| 96 | 9% | 65% | Last Result |
| 97 | 8% | 57% | |
| 98 | 14% | 48% | Median |
| 99 | 12% | 34% | |
| 100 | 3% | 22% | |
| 101 | 3% | 19% | |
| 102 | 5% | 17% | |
| 103 | 7% | 12% | |
| 104 | 3% | 5% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 80 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 83 | 3% | 95% | |
| 84 | 5% | 93% | |
| 85 | 6% | 88% | Majority |
| 86 | 6% | 82% | |
| 87 | 5% | 76% | |
| 88 | 4% | 71% | |
| 89 | 16% | 67% | Median |
| 90 | 18% | 51% | |
| 91 | 6% | 33% | |
| 92 | 4% | 27% | |
| 93 | 6% | 23% | |
| 94 | 5% | 17% | |
| 95 | 10% | 13% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 79 | 3% | 95% | |
| 80 | 5% | 92% | |
| 81 | 5% | 88% | |
| 82 | 4% | 83% | |
| 83 | 18% | 79% | |
| 84 | 9% | 60% | |
| 85 | 7% | 51% | Majority |
| 86 | 7% | 44% | Median |
| 87 | 13% | 38% | |
| 88 | 7% | 25% | |
| 89 | 4% | 18% | |
| 90 | 2% | 14% | |
| 91 | 4% | 12% | |
| 92 | 7% | 8% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 94 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 77 | 3% | 96% | |
| 78 | 3% | 93% | |
| 79 | 4% | 90% | |
| 80 | 3% | 86% | |
| 81 | 11% | 83% | |
| 82 | 11% | 71% | |
| 83 | 11% | 60% | |
| 84 | 7% | 49% | Median |
| 85 | 5% | 42% | Majority |
| 86 | 4% | 37% | |
| 87 | 18% | 33% | |
| 88 | 3% | 16% | |
| 89 | 3% | 13% | |
| 90 | 6% | 10% | |
| 91 | 3% | 4% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 74 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 75 | 2% | 95% | |
| 76 | 10% | 93% | |
| 77 | 8% | 83% | |
| 78 | 9% | 75% | |
| 79 | 9% | 66% | |
| 80 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 81 | 13% | 52% | |
| 82 | 8% | 39% | |
| 83 | 5% | 31% | |
| 84 | 5% | 26% | |
| 85 | 8% | 21% | Majority |
| 86 | 3% | 13% | |
| 87 | 3% | 10% | |
| 88 | 3% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 71 | 6% | 95% | |
| 72 | 7% | 89% | |
| 73 | 10% | 82% | |
| 74 | 10% | 71% | |
| 75 | 7% | 62% | |
| 76 | 7% | 55% | |
| 77 | 6% | 47% | Median |
| 78 | 9% | 42% | |
| 79 | 13% | 33% | |
| 80 | 5% | 20% | |
| 81 | 3% | 15% | |
| 82 | 4% | 12% | |
| 83 | 3% | 8% | |
| 84 | 3% | 6% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 3% | Majority |
| 86 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 66 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 67 | 4% | 95% | |
| 68 | 3% | 91% | |
| 69 | 5% | 88% | |
| 70 | 7% | 83% | |
| 71 | 17% | 76% | |
| 72 | 13% | 59% | |
| 73 | 6% | 46% | Median |
| 74 | 4% | 40% | |
| 75 | 10% | 36% | |
| 76 | 9% | 27% | |
| 77 | 4% | 18% | |
| 78 | 3% | 14% | |
| 79 | 3% | 11% | |
| 80 | 4% | 7% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 96% | |
| 69 | 4% | 94% | |
| 70 | 4% | 91% | |
| 71 | 12% | 87% | |
| 72 | 6% | 74% | |
| 73 | 7% | 68% | |
| 74 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 75 | 6% | 45% | |
| 76 | 5% | 39% | |
| 77 | 18% | 34% | |
| 78 | 3% | 17% | |
| 79 | 4% | 14% | |
| 80 | 5% | 10% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 67 | 6% | 93% | |
| 68 | 8% | 87% | |
| 69 | 9% | 79% | |
| 70 | 10% | 70% | |
| 71 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 72 | 4% | 44% | |
| 73 | 6% | 40% | |
| 74 | 7% | 34% | |
| 75 | 11% | 27% | |
| 76 | 3% | 16% | |
| 77 | 5% | 14% | |
| 78 | 4% | 9% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 62 | 3% | 95% | |
| 63 | 2% | 92% | |
| 64 | 7% | 90% | |
| 65 | 8% | 84% | |
| 66 | 10% | 75% | |
| 67 | 5% | 66% | |
| 68 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 69 | 9% | 51% | |
| 70 | 14% | 42% | |
| 71 | 5% | 29% | |
| 72 | 5% | 23% | Last Result |
| 73 | 6% | 18% | |
| 74 | 5% | 12% | |
| 75 | 5% | 7% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 95% | |
| 63 | 8% | 93% | |
| 64 | 9% | 86% | |
| 65 | 9% | 77% | |
| 66 | 10% | 67% | |
| 67 | 6% | 57% | |
| 68 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 69 | 16% | 40% | |
| 70 | 5% | 24% | |
| 71 | 7% | 19% | |
| 72 | 4% | 12% | |
| 73 | 3% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 6% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 50 | 6% | 95% | |
| 51 | 8% | 89% | |
| 52 | 3% | 80% | |
| 53 | 13% | 77% | |
| 54 | 7% | 64% | |
| 55 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 56 | 8% | 53% | |
| 57 | 14% | 44% | |
| 58 | 13% | 31% | |
| 59 | 3% | 17% | |
| 60 | 6% | 15% | |
| 61 | 4% | 9% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 50 | 7% | 98% | |
| 51 | 4% | 91% | |
| 52 | 11% | 86% | |
| 53 | 5% | 75% | |
| 54 | 12% | 70% | |
| 55 | 10% | 58% | |
| 56 | 13% | 48% | Median |
| 57 | 5% | 35% | |
| 58 | 15% | 30% | |
| 59 | 5% | 15% | |
| 60 | 5% | 10% | |
| 61 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 98% | Last Result |
| 48 | 2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 6% | 92% | |
| 51 | 13% | 86% | |
| 52 | 7% | 73% | |
| 53 | 6% | 66% | |
| 54 | 25% | 61% | |
| 55 | 13% | 36% | Median |
| 56 | 7% | 22% | |
| 57 | 4% | 16% | |
| 58 | 3% | 12% | |
| 59 | 3% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 5% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 2% | 96% | |
| 48 | 12% | 94% | |
| 49 | 8% | 82% | |
| 50 | 10% | 74% | |
| 51 | 28% | 64% | |
| 52 | 7% | 36% | Median |
| 53 | 11% | 29% | |
| 54 | 8% | 18% | |
| 55 | 5% | 11% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 97% | |
| 46 | 6% | 95% | |
| 47 | 11% | 89% | |
| 48 | 6% | 78% | |
| 49 | 15% | 72% | |
| 50 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 51 | 26% | 48% | |
| 52 | 7% | 23% | |
| 53 | 9% | 16% | |
| 54 | 3% | 7% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 19 | 8% | 97% | |
| 20 | 4% | 89% | |
| 21 | 18% | 85% | |
| 22 | 14% | 67% | |
| 23 | 12% | 53% | |
| 24 | 13% | 41% | Median |
| 25 | 12% | 28% | |
| 26 | 8% | 16% | |
| 27 | 5% | 7% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norfakta
- Commissioner(s): Klassekampen and Nationen
- Fieldwork period: 1–2 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.55%