Opinion Poll by Verian for TV2, 4 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 20.4% | 24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.9–27.3% | 21.1–28.2% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 22.2% | 20.6–24.0% | 20.1–24.4% | 19.7–24.9% | 19.0–25.7% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.6–20.4% | 15.0–21.2% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Norgesdemokratene | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Konservativt | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Kystpartiet | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre | 36 | 44 | 40–45 | 39–47 | 39–48 | 35–49 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 41 | 38–46 | 35–46 | 35–46 | 34–47 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 31 | 29–35 | 29–37 | 28–38 | 26–39 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 10–19 |
| Rødt | 8 | 11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–16 | 7–16 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 10 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 7–14 | 1–15 |
| Venstre | 8 | 9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 3–10 | 2–11 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 2 | 1–8 | 1–9 | 1–9 | 1–9 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–7 | 1–7 | 0–8 |
| Norgesdemokratene | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konservativt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kystpartiet | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Industri- og Næringspartiet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 7% | 94% | |
| 41 | 4% | 87% | |
| 42 | 3% | 83% | |
| 43 | 27% | 80% | |
| 44 | 34% | 53% | Median |
| 45 | 11% | 19% | |
| 46 | 2% | 8% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 48 | 2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 35 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 38 | 4% | 93% | |
| 39 | 7% | 89% | |
| 40 | 11% | 82% | |
| 41 | 29% | 71% | Median |
| 42 | 2% | 41% | |
| 43 | 4% | 40% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 36% | |
| 45 | 19% | 35% | |
| 46 | 15% | 16% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98% | |
| 29 | 27% | 96% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 70% | |
| 31 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 32 | 0.7% | 43% | |
| 33 | 9% | 42% | |
| 34 | 16% | 33% | |
| 35 | 8% | 17% | |
| 36 | 2% | 9% | |
| 37 | 4% | 8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 12 | 5% | 97% | |
| 13 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 14 | 20% | 88% | |
| 15 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 32% | 38% | |
| 17 | 2% | 5% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 13% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 9 | 14% | 85% | |
| 10 | 8% | 72% | |
| 11 | 52% | 63% | Median |
| 12 | 8% | 12% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 9 | 31% | 96% | |
| 10 | 22% | 65% | Median |
| 11 | 9% | 43% | |
| 12 | 2% | 34% | |
| 13 | 6% | 32% | |
| 14 | 25% | 25% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 7 | 13% | 94% | |
| 8 | 14% | 81% | Last Result |
| 9 | 44% | 67% | Median |
| 10 | 22% | 23% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14% | 100% | |
| 2 | 50% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 37% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 29% | |
| 5 | 0% | 29% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 29% | |
| 7 | 14% | 28% | |
| 8 | 5% | 15% | |
| 9 | 10% | 10% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 16% | 98.5% | |
| 2 | 67% | 83% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 15% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Norgesdemokratene
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Konservativt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Kystpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kystpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 51% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 45% | 49% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Industri- og Næringspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 96 | 100% | 93–101 | 93–104 | 91–104 | 89–106 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 71 | 88 | 99.7% | 86–95 | 86–96 | 85–96 | 85–103 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 86 | 62% | 84–91 | 83–94 | 82–94 | 78–96 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 65 | 83 | 22% | 82–87 | 81–89 | 80–90 | 76–92 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 82 | 15% | 76–85 | 73–85 | 73–85 | 72–89 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 57 | 74 | 0.1% | 73–79 | 73–81 | 72–83 | 67–83 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet | 97 | 80 | 0.2% | 72–82 | 72–82 | 71–83 | 65–83 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 95 | 74 | 0.1% | 70–78 | 69–78 | 67–78 | 65–82 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 71 | 0% | 67–76 | 63–77 | 62–77 | 62–80 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 71 | 0% | 66–76 | 63–76 | 63–76 | 62–78 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet | 89 | 69 | 0% | 63–71 | 61–71 | 61–71 | 58–73 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 82 | 59 | 0% | 55–63 | 53–63 | 53–63 | 50–67 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 57 | 0% | 53–60 | 51–61 | 51–61 | 48–62 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 55 | 0% | 50–56 | 50–61 | 49–61 | 47–62 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 56 | 0% | 52–58 | 50–59 | 50–59 | 47–62 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 54 | 0% | 49–55 | 45–56 | 45–57 | 45–58 |
| Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 21 | 0% | 18–25 | 18–26 | 16–26 | 12–27 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 93 | 8% | 96% | |
| 94 | 2% | 88% | |
| 95 | 19% | 87% | |
| 96 | 24% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 97 | 2% | 43% | |
| 98 | 25% | 41% | |
| 99 | 2% | 15% | |
| 100 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 101 | 3% | 13% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 104 | 8% | 9% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 3% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 86 | 23% | 96% | |
| 87 | 7% | 73% | |
| 88 | 25% | 67% | Median |
| 89 | 2% | 42% | |
| 90 | 2% | 40% | |
| 91 | 10% | 38% | |
| 92 | 4% | 28% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 94 | 4% | 23% | |
| 95 | 14% | 19% | |
| 96 | 4% | 5% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 83 | 4% | 97% | |
| 84 | 31% | 93% | |
| 85 | 8% | 62% | Majority |
| 86 | 31% | 53% | Median |
| 87 | 4% | 22% | |
| 88 | 3% | 18% | |
| 89 | 2% | 15% | |
| 90 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 91 | 5% | 12% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 94 | 5% | 6% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 4% | 96% | |
| 82 | 25% | 92% | |
| 83 | 18% | 68% | |
| 84 | 28% | 49% | Median |
| 85 | 3% | 22% | Majority |
| 86 | 3% | 19% | |
| 87 | 8% | 16% | |
| 88 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 89 | 3% | 7% | |
| 90 | 3% | 4% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 76 | 5% | 93% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 79 | 3% | 86% | Median |
| 80 | 7% | 83% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 76% | |
| 82 | 35% | 76% | |
| 83 | 2% | 41% | |
| 84 | 23% | 38% | |
| 85 | 13% | 15% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 89 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 73 | 28% | 97% | |
| 74 | 23% | 69% | |
| 75 | 9% | 46% | Median |
| 76 | 6% | 37% | |
| 77 | 13% | 31% | |
| 78 | 8% | 18% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 8% | 97% | |
| 73 | 12% | 89% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 77% | |
| 75 | 4% | 76% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 72% | |
| 77 | 6% | 71% | Median |
| 78 | 10% | 65% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 56% | |
| 80 | 22% | 54% | |
| 81 | 6% | 32% | |
| 82 | 23% | 27% | |
| 83 | 3% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 69 | 5% | 96% | |
| 70 | 7% | 90% | Median |
| 71 | 7% | 84% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 77% | |
| 73 | 21% | 76% | |
| 74 | 7% | 54% | |
| 75 | 34% | 47% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 78 | 10% | 12% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 66 | 2% | 94% | |
| 67 | 2% | 91% | |
| 68 | 4% | 89% | Median |
| 69 | 8% | 85% | |
| 70 | 5% | 78% | |
| 71 | 23% | 73% | |
| 72 | 3% | 49% | |
| 73 | 34% | 47% | |
| 74 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 75 | 2% | 12% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 77 | 9% | 10% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 66 | 3% | 90% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 69 | 5% | 86% | Median |
| 70 | 24% | 81% | |
| 71 | 8% | 57% | |
| 72 | 18% | 50% | Last Result |
| 73 | 18% | 32% | |
| 74 | 2% | 13% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 76 | 9% | 11% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 61 | 5% | 98% | |
| 62 | 2% | 93% | |
| 63 | 3% | 91% | |
| 64 | 12% | 87% | |
| 65 | 3% | 76% | |
| 66 | 4% | 73% | Median |
| 67 | 8% | 69% | |
| 68 | 3% | 62% | |
| 69 | 18% | 58% | |
| 70 | 15% | 40% | |
| 71 | 23% | 26% | |
| 72 | 2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 55 | 6% | 91% | Median |
| 56 | 7% | 85% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 58 | 18% | 77% | |
| 59 | 27% | 59% | |
| 60 | 7% | 32% | |
| 61 | 10% | 25% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 63 | 12% | 14% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 51 | 5% | 98% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 53 | 3% | 92% | |
| 54 | 18% | 90% | |
| 55 | 7% | 72% | |
| 56 | 2% | 65% | Median |
| 57 | 25% | 63% | |
| 58 | 3% | 39% | |
| 59 | 5% | 35% | |
| 60 | 21% | 30% | |
| 61 | 8% | 9% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 8% | 96% | |
| 51 | 2% | 88% | |
| 52 | 16% | 86% | |
| 53 | 10% | 70% | |
| 54 | 5% | 60% | |
| 55 | 39% | 55% | Median |
| 56 | 7% | 16% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 58 | 2% | 9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 61 | 5% | 6% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 3% | 95% | |
| 52 | 15% | 92% | |
| 53 | 7% | 76% | Median |
| 54 | 7% | 69% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 56 | 27% | 61% | |
| 57 | 24% | 34% | |
| 58 | 4% | 10% | |
| 59 | 4% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 48 | 2% | 93% | |
| 49 | 4% | 91% | |
| 50 | 11% | 87% | |
| 51 | 5% | 76% | Median |
| 52 | 9% | 71% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 62% | |
| 54 | 19% | 60% | |
| 55 | 34% | 42% | |
| 56 | 4% | 8% | |
| 57 | 3% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 18 | 13% | 96% | |
| 19 | 10% | 83% | |
| 20 | 7% | 73% | |
| 21 | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 22 | 5% | 44% | |
| 23 | 3% | 39% | |
| 24 | 4% | 36% | |
| 25 | 24% | 31% | |
| 26 | 6% | 7% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): TV2
- Fieldwork period: 4 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.11%