Opinion Poll by Norstat for Dagbladet and Vårt Land, 2–9 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 27.4% | 25.6–29.3% | 25.1–29.8% | 24.7–30.3% | 23.9–31.2% |
| Høyre | 20.4% | 21.5% | 19.9–23.2% | 19.4–23.7% | 19.1–24.2% | 18.3–25.0% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 14.2% | 12.9–15.7% | 12.5–16.1% | 12.2–16.5% | 11.6–17.3% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 51 | 48–56 | 46–57 | 45–57 | 43–59 |
| Høyre | 36 | 38 | 35–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–46 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 27 | 24–32 | 23–33 | 22–33 | 21–34 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 19 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 14–24 | 12–25 |
| Rødt | 8 | 9 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 1–13 |
| Venstre | 8 | 8 | 3–10 | 3–10 | 2–10 | 2–12 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 7 | 3–9 | 2–9 | 2–10 | 1–11 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 2 | 1–7 | 1–7 | 1–8 | 1–9 |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 3% | 96% | |
| 47 | 2% | 93% | |
| 48 | 8% | 91% | |
| 49 | 14% | 83% | |
| 50 | 15% | 69% | |
| 51 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 52 | 12% | 37% | |
| 53 | 6% | 26% | |
| 54 | 6% | 20% | |
| 55 | 4% | 14% | |
| 56 | 5% | 10% | |
| 57 | 4% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 8% | 95% | |
| 36 | 10% | 87% | Last Result |
| 37 | 20% | 77% | |
| 38 | 22% | 57% | Median |
| 39 | 14% | 35% | |
| 40 | 8% | 20% | |
| 41 | 5% | 12% | |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 4% | 97% | |
| 24 | 5% | 93% | |
| 25 | 7% | 88% | |
| 26 | 10% | 80% | |
| 27 | 21% | 70% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 49% | |
| 29 | 9% | 31% | |
| 30 | 8% | 23% | |
| 31 | 3% | 15% | |
| 32 | 6% | 11% | |
| 33 | 5% | 6% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 14 | 3% | 98% | |
| 15 | 5% | 94% | |
| 16 | 7% | 89% | |
| 17 | 6% | 82% | |
| 18 | 8% | 76% | |
| 19 | 32% | 69% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 37% | |
| 21 | 13% | 23% | |
| 22 | 5% | 10% | |
| 23 | 3% | 6% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 7 | 10% | 96% | |
| 8 | 20% | 86% | Last Result |
| 9 | 31% | 66% | Median |
| 10 | 16% | 35% | |
| 11 | 14% | 19% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 6 | 8% | 88% | |
| 7 | 27% | 81% | |
| 8 | 26% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 15% | 27% | |
| 10 | 10% | 12% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 22% | 91% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 69% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 69% | |
| 6 | 11% | 69% | |
| 7 | 27% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 32% | |
| 9 | 8% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 9% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 40% | |
| 3 | 0% | 40% | |
| 4 | 0% | 40% | |
| 5 | 2% | 40% | |
| 6 | 11% | 38% | |
| 7 | 16% | 27% | |
| 8 | 8% | 11% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12% | 100% | |
| 2 | 45% | 88% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 43% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 23% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 23% | |
| 6 | 8% | 22% | |
| 7 | 10% | 14% | |
| 8 | 3% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 71 | 106 | 100% | 100–111 | 99–112 | 97–114 | 95–116 |
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet | 96 | 105 | 100% | 100–111 | 98–113 | 97–114 | 94–116 |
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 103 | 100% | 97–107 | 95–109 | 94–110 | 92–113 |
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre | 65 | 96 | 99.9% | 91–101 | 90–103 | 89–104 | 86–107 |
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre | 57 | 89 | 89% | 84–94 | 83–94 | 82–96 | 80–100 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 62 | 0% | 56–67 | 55–69 | 53–70 | 51–73 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 58 | 0% | 54–64 | 52–66 | 51–68 | 48–70 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 95 | 59 | 0% | 53–64 | 51–66 | 50–68 | 47–70 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet | 97 | 59 | 0% | 53–63 | 51–65 | 50–67 | 48–70 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 53 | 0% | 47–58 | 46–60 | 45–61 | 43–64 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 51 | 0% | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–58 | 42–61 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet | 89 | 50 | 0% | 44–54 | 43–55 | 42–58 | 40–59 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 46 | 0% | 42–51 | 41–52 | 40–53 | 37–55 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 82 | 39 | 0% | 33–46 | 32–47 | 30–48 | 28–51 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet | 79 | 36 | 0% | 31–42 | 29–44 | 29–45 | 26–48 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 30 | 0% | 26–35 | 25–37 | 24–39 | 23–40 |
| Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet | 39 | 16 | 0% | 11–22 | 10–23 | 9–24 | 5–26 |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 97 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 99 | 2% | 96% | |
| 100 | 6% | 94% | |
| 101 | 6% | 88% | |
| 102 | 7% | 82% | |
| 103 | 8% | 76% | |
| 104 | 4% | 68% | |
| 105 | 11% | 65% | |
| 106 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 107 | 13% | 45% | |
| 108 | 10% | 32% | |
| 109 | 7% | 21% | |
| 110 | 3% | 14% | |
| 111 | 5% | 11% | |
| 112 | 2% | 6% | |
| 113 | 2% | 5% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 97 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 98 | 2% | 97% | |
| 99 | 2% | 94% | |
| 100 | 8% | 92% | |
| 101 | 5% | 84% | |
| 102 | 7% | 80% | |
| 103 | 10% | 73% | |
| 104 | 9% | 63% | Median |
| 105 | 7% | 54% | |
| 106 | 9% | 47% | |
| 107 | 7% | 38% | |
| 108 | 7% | 30% | |
| 109 | 4% | 23% | |
| 110 | 4% | 19% | |
| 111 | 5% | 15% | |
| 112 | 4% | 10% | |
| 113 | 2% | 5% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 94 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 95 | 2% | 97% | |
| 96 | 3% | 95% | |
| 97 | 5% | 92% | |
| 98 | 4% | 87% | |
| 99 | 7% | 83% | |
| 100 | 10% | 76% | |
| 101 | 6% | 66% | |
| 102 | 8% | 60% | |
| 103 | 10% | 52% | |
| 104 | 9% | 42% | Median |
| 105 | 10% | 33% | |
| 106 | 8% | 22% | |
| 107 | 6% | 15% | |
| 108 | 3% | 9% | |
| 109 | 3% | 6% | |
| 110 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 111 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 2% | 96% | |
| 91 | 5% | 94% | |
| 92 | 4% | 89% | |
| 93 | 9% | 85% | |
| 94 | 7% | 76% | |
| 95 | 8% | 68% | |
| 96 | 15% | 60% | |
| 97 | 8% | 46% | Median |
| 98 | 10% | 38% | |
| 99 | 7% | 28% | |
| 100 | 7% | 22% | |
| 101 | 6% | 15% | |
| 102 | 2% | 9% | |
| 103 | 3% | 6% | |
| 104 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 2% | 98% | |
| 83 | 2% | 97% | |
| 84 | 5% | 94% | |
| 85 | 5% | 89% | Majority |
| 86 | 9% | 84% | |
| 87 | 9% | 75% | |
| 88 | 12% | 67% | |
| 89 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 90 | 8% | 41% | |
| 91 | 10% | 33% | |
| 92 | 6% | 23% | |
| 93 | 7% | 17% | |
| 94 | 6% | 10% | |
| 95 | 2% | 5% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 97% | |
| 55 | 4% | 95% | |
| 56 | 3% | 92% | |
| 57 | 8% | 88% | Median |
| 58 | 4% | 80% | |
| 59 | 7% | 76% | |
| 60 | 9% | 69% | |
| 61 | 7% | 60% | |
| 62 | 9% | 54% | |
| 63 | 12% | 44% | |
| 64 | 8% | 32% | |
| 65 | 6% | 24% | |
| 66 | 4% | 18% | |
| 67 | 4% | 13% | |
| 68 | 3% | 9% | |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 4% | 95% | |
| 54 | 5% | 90% | |
| 55 | 7% | 85% | |
| 56 | 6% | 78% | |
| 57 | 14% | 72% | Median |
| 58 | 8% | 58% | |
| 59 | 8% | 50% | |
| 60 | 9% | 42% | |
| 61 | 8% | 33% | |
| 62 | 7% | 25% | |
| 63 | 6% | 18% | |
| 64 | 4% | 12% | |
| 65 | 2% | 8% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 2% | 96% | |
| 52 | 3% | 94% | |
| 53 | 6% | 91% | |
| 54 | 5% | 85% | |
| 55 | 4% | 80% | Median |
| 56 | 7% | 75% | |
| 57 | 7% | 69% | |
| 58 | 11% | 62% | |
| 59 | 7% | 51% | |
| 60 | 10% | 44% | |
| 61 | 8% | 34% | |
| 62 | 6% | 27% | |
| 63 | 10% | 21% | |
| 64 | 2% | 11% | |
| 65 | 2% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 5% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 53 | 7% | 93% | |
| 54 | 5% | 86% | |
| 55 | 10% | 82% | Median |
| 56 | 5% | 72% | |
| 57 | 7% | 67% | |
| 58 | 7% | 59% | |
| 59 | 6% | 52% | |
| 60 | 10% | 46% | |
| 61 | 16% | 36% | |
| 62 | 5% | 20% | |
| 63 | 7% | 15% | |
| 64 | 2% | 9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 6% | |
| 66 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 46 | 5% | 97% | |
| 47 | 3% | 91% | |
| 48 | 5% | 88% | Median |
| 49 | 9% | 83% | |
| 50 | 6% | 75% | |
| 51 | 10% | 69% | |
| 52 | 8% | 59% | |
| 53 | 10% | 51% | |
| 54 | 10% | 42% | |
| 55 | 9% | 32% | |
| 56 | 6% | 23% | |
| 57 | 5% | 17% | |
| 58 | 3% | 12% | |
| 59 | 2% | 9% | |
| 60 | 4% | 7% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 4% | 97% | |
| 47 | 3% | 93% | Last Result |
| 48 | 11% | 89% | |
| 49 | 9% | 79% | |
| 50 | 10% | 70% | |
| 51 | 10% | 60% | |
| 52 | 13% | 50% | |
| 53 | 12% | 37% | Median |
| 54 | 6% | 25% | |
| 55 | 7% | 19% | |
| 56 | 6% | 12% | |
| 57 | 3% | 6% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 43 | 4% | 97% | |
| 44 | 6% | 93% | |
| 45 | 5% | 87% | |
| 46 | 6% | 82% | Median |
| 47 | 10% | 77% | |
| 48 | 9% | 67% | |
| 49 | 7% | 58% | |
| 50 | 11% | 51% | |
| 51 | 9% | 40% | |
| 52 | 12% | 32% | |
| 53 | 6% | 20% | |
| 54 | 7% | 14% | |
| 55 | 3% | 8% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 41 | 2% | 97% | |
| 42 | 5% | 95% | |
| 43 | 8% | 89% | |
| 44 | 9% | 81% | |
| 45 | 11% | 72% | |
| 46 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 47 | 12% | 48% | |
| 48 | 8% | 36% | |
| 49 | 8% | 28% | |
| 50 | 9% | 21% | |
| 51 | 5% | 12% | |
| 52 | 4% | 7% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 32 | 3% | 96% | |
| 33 | 4% | 93% | |
| 34 | 3% | 90% | |
| 35 | 3% | 87% | |
| 36 | 5% | 84% | Median |
| 37 | 11% | 80% | |
| 38 | 9% | 69% | |
| 39 | 12% | 60% | |
| 40 | 7% | 49% | |
| 41 | 8% | 42% | |
| 42 | 6% | 34% | |
| 43 | 5% | 28% | |
| 44 | 8% | 23% | |
| 45 | 4% | 15% | |
| 46 | 3% | 11% | |
| 47 | 3% | 7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98% | |
| 30 | 2% | 94% | |
| 31 | 5% | 92% | |
| 32 | 6% | 87% | |
| 33 | 4% | 81% | |
| 34 | 6% | 77% | Median |
| 35 | 14% | 71% | |
| 36 | 9% | 57% | |
| 37 | 8% | 48% | |
| 38 | 6% | 40% | |
| 39 | 8% | 34% | |
| 40 | 7% | 26% | |
| 41 | 4% | 19% | |
| 42 | 8% | 15% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98% | |
| 25 | 3% | 96% | |
| 26 | 4% | 93% | |
| 27 | 11% | 89% | Median |
| 28 | 18% | 78% | |
| 29 | 7% | 60% | |
| 30 | 6% | 53% | |
| 31 | 4% | 47% | |
| 32 | 10% | 43% | |
| 33 | 13% | 33% | |
| 34 | 5% | 21% | |
| 35 | 5% | 15% | |
| 36 | 3% | 10% | |
| 37 | 2% | 6% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 10 | 3% | 97% | |
| 11 | 7% | 95% | |
| 12 | 4% | 88% | |
| 13 | 7% | 83% | |
| 14 | 12% | 76% | |
| 15 | 6% | 64% | Median |
| 16 | 14% | 58% | |
| 17 | 8% | 43% | |
| 18 | 7% | 36% | |
| 19 | 8% | 29% | |
| 20 | 4% | 21% | |
| 21 | 4% | 17% | |
| 22 | 4% | 13% | |
| 23 | 4% | 9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 5% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Dagbladet and Vårt Land
- Fieldwork period: 2–9 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.52%