Opinion Poll by Norstat for Dagbladet and Vårt Land, 2–9 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fremskrittspartiet |
11.6% |
27.4% |
25.6–29.3% |
25.1–29.8% |
24.7–30.3% |
23.9–31.2% |
Høyre |
20.4% |
21.5% |
19.9–23.2% |
19.4–23.7% |
19.1–24.2% |
18.3–25.0% |
Arbeiderpartiet |
26.2% |
14.2% |
12.9–15.7% |
12.5–16.1% |
12.2–16.5% |
11.6–17.3% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
7.6% |
11.0% |
9.8–12.4% |
9.5–12.8% |
9.2–13.1% |
8.7–13.8% |
Rødt |
4.7% |
5.5% |
4.7–6.5% |
4.4–6.8% |
4.3–7.1% |
3.9–7.6% |
Venstre |
4.6% |
4.7% |
3.9–5.7% |
3.7–6.0% |
3.6–6.2% |
3.2–6.7% |
Kristelig Folkeparti |
3.8% |
4.3% |
3.6–5.2% |
3.4–5.5% |
3.2–5.7% |
2.9–6.2% |
Senterpartiet |
13.5% |
3.8% |
3.1–4.7% |
2.9–5.0% |
2.8–5.2% |
2.5–5.6% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
3.9% |
3.5% |
2.9–4.4% |
2.7–4.6% |
2.5–4.8% |
2.2–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
44 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
45 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
46 |
3% |
96% |
|
47 |
2% |
93% |
|
48 |
8% |
91% |
|
49 |
14% |
83% |
|
50 |
15% |
69% |
|
51 |
17% |
54% |
Median |
52 |
12% |
37% |
|
53 |
6% |
26% |
|
54 |
6% |
20% |
|
55 |
4% |
14% |
|
56 |
5% |
10% |
|
57 |
4% |
5% |
|
58 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
3% |
98% |
|
35 |
8% |
95% |
|
36 |
10% |
87% |
Last Result |
37 |
20% |
77% |
|
38 |
22% |
57% |
Median |
39 |
14% |
35% |
|
40 |
8% |
20% |
|
41 |
5% |
12% |
|
42 |
4% |
7% |
|
43 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
44 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
23 |
4% |
97% |
|
24 |
5% |
93% |
|
25 |
7% |
88% |
|
26 |
10% |
80% |
|
27 |
21% |
70% |
Median |
28 |
18% |
49% |
|
29 |
9% |
31% |
|
30 |
8% |
23% |
|
31 |
3% |
15% |
|
32 |
6% |
11% |
|
33 |
5% |
6% |
|
34 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
14 |
3% |
98% |
|
15 |
5% |
94% |
|
16 |
7% |
89% |
|
17 |
6% |
82% |
|
18 |
8% |
76% |
|
19 |
32% |
69% |
Median |
20 |
14% |
37% |
|
21 |
13% |
23% |
|
22 |
5% |
10% |
|
23 |
3% |
6% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
3 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
4 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
6 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
7 |
10% |
96% |
|
8 |
20% |
86% |
Last Result |
9 |
31% |
66% |
Median |
10 |
16% |
35% |
|
11 |
14% |
19% |
|
12 |
4% |
5% |
|
13 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
3% |
100% |
|
3 |
8% |
97% |
|
4 |
0% |
89% |
|
5 |
0.3% |
89% |
|
6 |
8% |
88% |
|
7 |
27% |
81% |
|
8 |
26% |
53% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
15% |
27% |
|
10 |
10% |
12% |
|
11 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
3 |
22% |
91% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
69% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
69% |
|
6 |
11% |
69% |
|
7 |
27% |
58% |
Median |
8 |
21% |
32% |
|
9 |
8% |
11% |
|
10 |
2% |
3% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
50% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
50% |
|
2 |
0.3% |
40% |
|
3 |
0% |
40% |
|
4 |
0% |
40% |
|
5 |
2% |
40% |
|
6 |
11% |
38% |
|
7 |
16% |
27% |
|
8 |
8% |
11% |
|
9 |
2% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
12% |
100% |
|
2 |
45% |
88% |
Median |
3 |
20% |
43% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
23% |
|
5 |
1.4% |
23% |
|
6 |
8% |
22% |
|
7 |
10% |
14% |
|
8 |
3% |
4% |
|
9 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
71 |
106 |
100% |
100–111 |
99–112 |
97–114 |
95–116 |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet |
96 |
105 |
100% |
100–111 |
98–113 |
97–114 |
94–116 |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
68 |
103 |
100% |
97–107 |
95–109 |
94–110 |
92–113 |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre |
65 |
96 |
99.9% |
91–101 |
90–103 |
89–104 |
86–107 |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre |
57 |
89 |
89% |
84–94 |
83–94 |
82–96 |
80–100 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
100 |
62 |
0% |
56–67 |
55–69 |
53–70 |
51–73 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
72 |
58 |
0% |
54–64 |
52–66 |
51–68 |
48–70 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
95 |
59 |
0% |
53–64 |
51–66 |
50–68 |
47–70 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet |
97 |
59 |
0% |
53–63 |
51–65 |
50–67 |
48–70 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
92 |
53 |
0% |
47–58 |
46–60 |
45–61 |
43–64 |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti |
47 |
51 |
0% |
47–56 |
46–57 |
45–58 |
42–61 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet |
89 |
50 |
0% |
44–54 |
43–55 |
42–58 |
40–59 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
61 |
46 |
0% |
42–51 |
41–52 |
40–53 |
37–55 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
82 |
39 |
0% |
33–46 |
32–47 |
30–48 |
28–51 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet |
79 |
36 |
0% |
31–42 |
29–44 |
29–45 |
26–48 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet |
76 |
30 |
0% |
26–35 |
25–37 |
24–39 |
23–40 |
Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet |
39 |
16 |
0% |
11–22 |
10–23 |
9–24 |
5–26 |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
100% |
|
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0% |
100% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
95 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
96 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
97 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
98 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
99 |
2% |
96% |
|
100 |
6% |
94% |
|
101 |
6% |
88% |
|
102 |
7% |
82% |
|
103 |
8% |
76% |
|
104 |
4% |
68% |
|
105 |
11% |
65% |
|
106 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
107 |
13% |
45% |
|
108 |
10% |
32% |
|
109 |
7% |
21% |
|
110 |
3% |
14% |
|
111 |
5% |
11% |
|
112 |
2% |
6% |
|
113 |
2% |
5% |
|
114 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
115 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
116 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
117 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
118 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
119 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
120 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
92 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
93 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
94 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
95 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
96 |
1.0% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
97 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
98 |
2% |
97% |
|
99 |
2% |
94% |
|
100 |
8% |
92% |
|
101 |
5% |
84% |
|
102 |
7% |
80% |
|
103 |
10% |
73% |
|
104 |
9% |
63% |
Median |
105 |
7% |
54% |
|
106 |
9% |
47% |
|
107 |
7% |
38% |
|
108 |
7% |
30% |
|
109 |
4% |
23% |
|
110 |
4% |
19% |
|
111 |
5% |
15% |
|
112 |
4% |
10% |
|
113 |
2% |
5% |
|
114 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
115 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
116 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
117 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
118 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
119 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
120 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
100% |
|
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
90 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
91 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
92 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
93 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
94 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
95 |
2% |
97% |
|
96 |
3% |
95% |
|
97 |
5% |
92% |
|
98 |
4% |
87% |
|
99 |
7% |
83% |
|
100 |
10% |
76% |
|
101 |
6% |
66% |
|
102 |
8% |
60% |
|
103 |
10% |
52% |
|
104 |
9% |
42% |
Median |
105 |
10% |
33% |
|
106 |
8% |
22% |
|
107 |
6% |
15% |
|
108 |
3% |
9% |
|
109 |
3% |
6% |
|
110 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
111 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
112 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
113 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
114 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
115 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
116 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
100% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
85 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
Majority |
86 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
87 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
88 |
0.8% |
98.9% |
|
89 |
2% |
98% |
|
90 |
2% |
96% |
|
91 |
5% |
94% |
|
92 |
4% |
89% |
|
93 |
9% |
85% |
|
94 |
7% |
76% |
|
95 |
8% |
68% |
|
96 |
15% |
60% |
|
97 |
8% |
46% |
Median |
98 |
10% |
38% |
|
99 |
7% |
28% |
|
100 |
7% |
22% |
|
101 |
6% |
15% |
|
102 |
2% |
9% |
|
103 |
3% |
6% |
|
104 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
105 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
106 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
107 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
109 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
110 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
111 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
79 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
80 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
81 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
82 |
2% |
98% |
|
83 |
2% |
97% |
|
84 |
5% |
94% |
|
85 |
5% |
89% |
Majority |
86 |
9% |
84% |
|
87 |
9% |
75% |
|
88 |
12% |
67% |
|
89 |
14% |
55% |
Median |
90 |
8% |
41% |
|
91 |
10% |
33% |
|
92 |
6% |
23% |
|
93 |
7% |
17% |
|
94 |
6% |
10% |
|
95 |
2% |
5% |
|
96 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
97 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
98 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
99 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
101 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
51 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
53 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
54 |
2% |
97% |
|
55 |
4% |
95% |
|
56 |
3% |
92% |
|
57 |
8% |
88% |
Median |
58 |
4% |
80% |
|
59 |
7% |
76% |
|
60 |
9% |
69% |
|
61 |
7% |
60% |
|
62 |
9% |
54% |
|
63 |
12% |
44% |
|
64 |
8% |
32% |
|
65 |
6% |
24% |
|
66 |
4% |
18% |
|
67 |
4% |
13% |
|
68 |
3% |
9% |
|
69 |
3% |
6% |
|
70 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
71 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.7% |
1.5% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
74 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
77 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
98.9% |
|
51 |
2% |
98% |
|
52 |
2% |
97% |
|
53 |
4% |
95% |
|
54 |
5% |
90% |
|
55 |
7% |
85% |
|
56 |
6% |
78% |
|
57 |
14% |
72% |
Median |
58 |
8% |
58% |
|
59 |
8% |
50% |
|
60 |
9% |
42% |
|
61 |
8% |
33% |
|
62 |
7% |
25% |
|
63 |
6% |
18% |
|
64 |
4% |
12% |
|
65 |
2% |
8% |
|
66 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
67 |
2% |
4% |
|
68 |
2% |
3% |
|
69 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
49 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
50 |
3% |
98% |
|
51 |
2% |
96% |
|
52 |
3% |
94% |
|
53 |
6% |
91% |
|
54 |
5% |
85% |
|
55 |
4% |
80% |
Median |
56 |
7% |
75% |
|
57 |
7% |
69% |
|
58 |
11% |
62% |
|
59 |
7% |
51% |
|
60 |
10% |
44% |
|
61 |
8% |
34% |
|
62 |
6% |
27% |
|
63 |
10% |
21% |
|
64 |
2% |
11% |
|
65 |
2% |
8% |
|
66 |
2% |
7% |
|
67 |
2% |
5% |
|
68 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
69 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
70 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
73 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
50 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
51 |
2% |
97% |
|
52 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
53 |
7% |
93% |
|
54 |
5% |
86% |
|
55 |
10% |
82% |
Median |
56 |
5% |
72% |
|
57 |
7% |
67% |
|
58 |
7% |
59% |
|
59 |
6% |
52% |
|
60 |
10% |
46% |
|
61 |
16% |
36% |
|
62 |
5% |
20% |
|
63 |
7% |
15% |
|
64 |
2% |
9% |
|
65 |
2% |
6% |
|
66 |
1.5% |
4% |
|
67 |
2% |
3% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
69 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
70 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
72 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
99.2% |
|
45 |
2% |
98.5% |
|
46 |
5% |
97% |
|
47 |
3% |
91% |
|
48 |
5% |
88% |
Median |
49 |
9% |
83% |
|
50 |
6% |
75% |
|
51 |
10% |
69% |
|
52 |
8% |
59% |
|
53 |
10% |
51% |
|
54 |
10% |
42% |
|
55 |
9% |
32% |
|
56 |
6% |
23% |
|
57 |
5% |
17% |
|
58 |
3% |
12% |
|
59 |
2% |
9% |
|
60 |
4% |
7% |
|
61 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
62 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
65 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
44 |
1.1% |
98.9% |
|
45 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
46 |
4% |
97% |
|
47 |
3% |
93% |
Last Result |
48 |
11% |
89% |
|
49 |
9% |
79% |
|
50 |
10% |
70% |
|
51 |
10% |
60% |
|
52 |
13% |
50% |
|
53 |
12% |
37% |
Median |
54 |
6% |
25% |
|
55 |
7% |
19% |
|
56 |
6% |
12% |
|
57 |
3% |
6% |
|
58 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
60 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
|
61 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
42 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
43 |
4% |
97% |
|
44 |
6% |
93% |
|
45 |
5% |
87% |
|
46 |
6% |
82% |
Median |
47 |
10% |
77% |
|
48 |
9% |
67% |
|
49 |
7% |
58% |
|
50 |
11% |
51% |
|
51 |
9% |
40% |
|
52 |
12% |
32% |
|
53 |
6% |
20% |
|
54 |
7% |
14% |
|
55 |
3% |
8% |
|
56 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
57 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
58 |
2% |
3% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
39 |
0.9% |
98.9% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
41 |
2% |
97% |
|
42 |
5% |
95% |
|
43 |
8% |
89% |
|
44 |
9% |
81% |
|
45 |
11% |
72% |
|
46 |
14% |
62% |
Median |
47 |
12% |
48% |
|
48 |
8% |
36% |
|
49 |
8% |
28% |
|
50 |
9% |
21% |
|
51 |
5% |
12% |
|
52 |
4% |
7% |
|
53 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
54 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
55 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
30 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
31 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
32 |
3% |
96% |
|
33 |
4% |
93% |
|
34 |
3% |
90% |
|
35 |
3% |
87% |
|
36 |
5% |
84% |
Median |
37 |
11% |
80% |
|
38 |
9% |
69% |
|
39 |
12% |
60% |
|
40 |
7% |
49% |
|
41 |
8% |
42% |
|
42 |
6% |
34% |
|
43 |
5% |
28% |
|
44 |
8% |
23% |
|
45 |
4% |
15% |
|
46 |
3% |
11% |
|
47 |
3% |
7% |
|
48 |
2% |
4% |
|
49 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
29 |
3% |
98% |
|
30 |
2% |
94% |
|
31 |
5% |
92% |
|
32 |
6% |
87% |
|
33 |
4% |
81% |
|
34 |
6% |
77% |
Median |
35 |
14% |
71% |
|
36 |
9% |
57% |
|
37 |
8% |
48% |
|
38 |
6% |
40% |
|
39 |
8% |
34% |
|
40 |
7% |
26% |
|
41 |
4% |
19% |
|
42 |
8% |
15% |
|
43 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
44 |
2% |
5% |
|
45 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
46 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
47 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
24 |
3% |
98% |
|
25 |
3% |
96% |
|
26 |
4% |
93% |
|
27 |
11% |
89% |
Median |
28 |
18% |
78% |
|
29 |
7% |
60% |
|
30 |
6% |
53% |
|
31 |
4% |
47% |
|
32 |
10% |
43% |
|
33 |
13% |
33% |
|
34 |
5% |
21% |
|
35 |
5% |
15% |
|
36 |
3% |
10% |
|
37 |
2% |
6% |
|
38 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
39 |
2% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Senterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
1.2% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
0% |
98% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
10 |
3% |
97% |
|
11 |
7% |
95% |
|
12 |
4% |
88% |
|
13 |
7% |
83% |
|
14 |
12% |
76% |
|
15 |
6% |
64% |
Median |
16 |
14% |
58% |
|
17 |
8% |
43% |
|
18 |
7% |
36% |
|
19 |
8% |
29% |
|
20 |
4% |
21% |
|
21 |
4% |
17% |
|
22 |
4% |
13% |
|
23 |
4% |
9% |
|
24 |
3% |
5% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Dagbladet and Vårt Land
- Fieldwork period: 2–9 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.52%