Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 10–14 December 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremskrittspartiet | 11.6% | 27.6% | 25.8–29.5% | 25.3–30.0% | 24.9–30.5% | 24.1–31.4% |
| Høyre | 20.4% | 20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.6–24.2% |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 26.2% | 16.8% | 15.4–18.4% | 15.0–18.9% | 14.6–19.3% | 13.9–20.0% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| Rødt | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Venstre | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Senterpartiet | 13.5% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremskrittspartiet | 21 | 52 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 46–59 | 44–61 |
| Høyre | 36 | 36 | 34–39 | 33–40 | 33–41 | 32–43 |
| Arbeiderpartiet | 48 | 33 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 29–38 | 27–39 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 13 | 11 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| Rødt | 8 | 10 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| Venstre | 8 | 7 | 5–9 | 3–10 | 3–10 | 2–11 |
| Senterpartiet | 28 | 7 | 1–9 | 1–10 | 1–10 | 0–12 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 3 | 6 | 3–8 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 1–10 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3 | 3 | 2–7 | 2–8 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 4% | 96% | |
| 48 | 6% | 92% | |
| 49 | 14% | 86% | |
| 50 | 7% | 72% | |
| 51 | 12% | 65% | |
| 52 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 53 | 14% | 41% | |
| 54 | 7% | 27% | |
| 55 | 4% | 20% | |
| 56 | 5% | 15% | |
| 57 | 4% | 10% | |
| 58 | 3% | 6% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 5% | 98% | |
| 34 | 9% | 93% | |
| 35 | 20% | 84% | |
| 36 | 15% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 37 | 15% | 50% | |
| 38 | 11% | 34% | |
| 39 | 16% | 23% | |
| 40 | 4% | 7% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 42 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 7% | 98% | |
| 30 | 8% | 91% | |
| 31 | 6% | 84% | |
| 32 | 15% | 78% | |
| 33 | 16% | 62% | Median |
| 34 | 18% | 46% | |
| 35 | 12% | 28% | |
| 36 | 6% | 15% | |
| 37 | 6% | 9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 18% | 92% | |
| 10 | 20% | 74% | |
| 11 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 12 | 20% | 33% | |
| 13 | 8% | 13% | Last Result |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 10% | 98% | Last Result |
| 9 | 16% | 88% | |
| 10 | 23% | 71% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 48% | |
| 12 | 14% | 27% | |
| 13 | 9% | 13% | |
| 14 | 2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 90% | |
| 5 | 2% | 90% | |
| 6 | 15% | 88% | |
| 7 | 29% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 26% | 44% | Last Result |
| 9 | 13% | 19% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 87% | |
| 3 | 0% | 87% | |
| 4 | 0% | 87% | |
| 5 | 3% | 87% | |
| 6 | 20% | 84% | |
| 7 | 31% | 65% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 34% | |
| 9 | 10% | 15% | |
| 10 | 4% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 28% | 92% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 65% | |
| 5 | 2% | 65% | |
| 6 | 21% | 63% | Median |
| 7 | 27% | 41% | |
| 8 | 11% | 14% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 21% | 98% | |
| 3 | 29% | 77% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 48% | |
| 5 | 5% | 48% | |
| 6 | 20% | 43% | |
| 7 | 16% | 23% | |
| 8 | 6% | 7% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 96 | 107 | 100% | 103–113 | 102–114 | 100–116 | 98–118 |
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 71 | 105 | 100% | 100–111 | 99–112 | 97–114 | 95–115 |
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 68 | 101 | 100% | 96–106 | 94–108 | 93–109 | 91–111 |
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre | 65 | 95 | 99.8% | 91–101 | 89–102 | 88–103 | 86–105 |
| Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre | 57 | 88 | 88% | 84–93 | 83–95 | 82–96 | 80–98 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 100 | 66 | 0% | 59–71 | 58–72 | 56–74 | 55–76 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet | 97 | 61 | 0% | 55–67 | 54–68 | 53–69 | 50–71 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 95 | 60 | 0% | 55–65 | 53–67 | 52–68 | 50–70 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 72 | 59 | 0% | 53–64 | 52–65 | 51–66 | 49–68 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 92 | 55 | 0% | 49–60 | 48–61 | 47–62 | 45–65 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet | 89 | 51 | 0% | 46–55 | 44–56 | 43–57 | 41–59 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 82 | 50 | 0% | 44–54 | 43–55 | 41–57 | 38–59 |
| Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti | 47 | 49 | 0% | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–55 | 41–57 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 79 | 45 | 0% | 41–49 | 39–51 | 38–52 | 35–54 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 61 | 44 | 0% | 40–47 | 39–49 | 38–49 | 37–51 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 76 | 40 | 0% | 36–43 | 34–44 | 33–46 | 30–48 |
| Venstre – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 39 | 19 | 0% | 15–23 | 14–25 | 12–25 | 11–27 |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 101 | 2% | 97% | |
| 102 | 3% | 95% | |
| 103 | 5% | 93% | |
| 104 | 10% | 88% | |
| 105 | 7% | 78% | |
| 106 | 13% | 71% | |
| 107 | 11% | 58% | |
| 108 | 12% | 47% | Median |
| 109 | 7% | 35% | |
| 110 | 6% | 29% | |
| 111 | 6% | 22% | |
| 112 | 5% | 16% | |
| 113 | 4% | 11% | |
| 114 | 2% | 7% | |
| 115 | 2% | 5% | |
| 116 | 2% | 3% | |
| 117 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 96 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 99 | 3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 4% | 93% | |
| 101 | 7% | 89% | |
| 102 | 4% | 82% | |
| 103 | 9% | 78% | |
| 104 | 11% | 69% | Median |
| 105 | 10% | 58% | |
| 106 | 9% | 48% | |
| 107 | 10% | 39% | |
| 108 | 6% | 29% | |
| 109 | 5% | 23% | |
| 110 | 6% | 18% | |
| 111 | 4% | 12% | |
| 112 | 3% | 7% | |
| 113 | 2% | 5% | |
| 114 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 94 | 3% | 97% | |
| 95 | 2% | 95% | |
| 96 | 3% | 93% | |
| 97 | 8% | 89% | |
| 98 | 10% | 81% | |
| 99 | 9% | 72% | |
| 100 | 9% | 62% | |
| 101 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 102 | 9% | 43% | |
| 103 | 7% | 34% | |
| 104 | 9% | 28% | |
| 105 | 5% | 19% | |
| 106 | 4% | 14% | |
| 107 | 4% | 10% | |
| 108 | 2% | 6% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 89 | 2% | 97% | |
| 90 | 4% | 95% | |
| 91 | 4% | 91% | |
| 92 | 5% | 87% | |
| 93 | 7% | 82% | |
| 94 | 16% | 76% | |
| 95 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 96 | 8% | 45% | |
| 97 | 10% | 37% | |
| 98 | 6% | 27% | |
| 99 | 5% | 21% | |
| 100 | 4% | 16% | |
| 101 | 5% | 12% | |
| 102 | 3% | 7% | |
| 103 | 2% | 4% | |
| 104 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 3% | 98% | |
| 83 | 3% | 95% | |
| 84 | 4% | 92% | |
| 85 | 6% | 88% | Majority |
| 86 | 11% | 81% | |
| 87 | 9% | 70% | |
| 88 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 89 | 8% | 45% | |
| 90 | 12% | 37% | |
| 91 | 5% | 25% | |
| 92 | 5% | 20% | |
| 93 | 5% | 14% | |
| 94 | 4% | 9% | |
| 95 | 2% | 5% | |
| 96 | 2% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 58 | 3% | 96% | |
| 59 | 3% | 93% | |
| 60 | 5% | 90% | |
| 61 | 5% | 85% | |
| 62 | 5% | 79% | |
| 63 | 7% | 74% | |
| 64 | 8% | 68% | Median |
| 65 | 8% | 59% | |
| 66 | 9% | 51% | |
| 67 | 8% | 42% | |
| 68 | 8% | 34% | |
| 69 | 7% | 26% | |
| 70 | 8% | 19% | |
| 71 | 5% | 11% | |
| 72 | 2% | 6% | |
| 73 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98% | |
| 54 | 2% | 96% | |
| 55 | 5% | 94% | |
| 56 | 6% | 88% | |
| 57 | 6% | 83% | |
| 58 | 8% | 77% | |
| 59 | 8% | 68% | |
| 60 | 6% | 60% | |
| 61 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 62 | 8% | 47% | |
| 63 | 9% | 38% | |
| 64 | 10% | 29% | |
| 65 | 4% | 20% | |
| 66 | 4% | 15% | |
| 67 | 6% | 12% | |
| 68 | 2% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 2% | 97% | |
| 54 | 3% | 95% | |
| 55 | 5% | 92% | |
| 56 | 5% | 86% | |
| 57 | 7% | 82% | |
| 58 | 6% | 74% | |
| 59 | 7% | 68% | |
| 60 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 9% | 50% | |
| 62 | 9% | 41% | |
| 63 | 11% | 33% | |
| 64 | 9% | 22% | |
| 65 | 4% | 12% | |
| 66 | 3% | 8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 5% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 97% | |
| 53 | 3% | 93% | |
| 54 | 4% | 90% | |
| 55 | 4% | 86% | |
| 56 | 10% | 82% | |
| 57 | 8% | 72% | Median |
| 58 | 9% | 64% | |
| 59 | 8% | 55% | |
| 60 | 13% | 48% | |
| 61 | 9% | 35% | |
| 62 | 10% | 26% | |
| 63 | 4% | 16% | |
| 64 | 5% | 12% | |
| 65 | 3% | 6% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 94% | |
| 50 | 4% | 88% | |
| 51 | 5% | 84% | |
| 52 | 6% | 79% | |
| 53 | 8% | 73% | |
| 54 | 9% | 65% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 57% | |
| 56 | 9% | 46% | |
| 57 | 11% | 37% | |
| 58 | 8% | 26% | |
| 59 | 6% | 17% | |
| 60 | 4% | 12% | |
| 61 | 5% | 8% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 2% | 97% | |
| 45 | 3% | 95% | |
| 46 | 7% | 92% | |
| 47 | 7% | 85% | |
| 48 | 14% | 78% | |
| 49 | 7% | 64% | |
| 50 | 7% | 58% | |
| 51 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 52 | 9% | 42% | |
| 53 | 13% | 34% | |
| 54 | 8% | 20% | |
| 55 | 5% | 12% | |
| 56 | 3% | 7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 43 | 3% | 96% | |
| 44 | 4% | 93% | |
| 45 | 3% | 89% | |
| 46 | 8% | 86% | |
| 47 | 8% | 78% | |
| 48 | 9% | 70% | |
| 49 | 6% | 62% | Median |
| 50 | 11% | 56% | |
| 51 | 13% | 45% | |
| 52 | 10% | 33% | |
| 53 | 7% | 23% | |
| 54 | 8% | 16% | |
| 55 | 3% | 8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 4% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 96% | |
| 45 | 8% | 94% | |
| 46 | 6% | 86% | |
| 47 | 8% | 80% | Last Result |
| 48 | 12% | 71% | |
| 49 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 50 | 16% | 48% | |
| 51 | 12% | 32% | |
| 52 | 5% | 21% | |
| 53 | 8% | 16% | |
| 54 | 4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 39 | 2% | 97% | |
| 40 | 4% | 95% | |
| 41 | 6% | 91% | |
| 42 | 6% | 85% | |
| 43 | 11% | 79% | |
| 44 | 9% | 68% | |
| 45 | 17% | 59% | |
| 46 | 7% | 43% | Median |
| 47 | 9% | 35% | |
| 48 | 11% | 26% | |
| 49 | 6% | 16% | |
| 50 | 4% | 9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 5% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 7% | 93% | |
| 41 | 10% | 86% | |
| 42 | 13% | 76% | |
| 43 | 8% | 63% | |
| 44 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 45 | 10% | 47% | |
| 46 | 18% | 36% | |
| 47 | 9% | 18% | |
| 48 | 3% | 9% | |
| 49 | 4% | 6% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 34 | 3% | 97% | |
| 35 | 3% | 95% | |
| 36 | 5% | 91% | |
| 37 | 10% | 86% | |
| 38 | 9% | 76% | |
| 39 | 12% | 67% | |
| 40 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 43% | |
| 42 | 14% | 28% | |
| 43 | 7% | 15% | |
| 44 | 3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 2% | 5% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Venstre – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 14 | 2% | 95% | |
| 15 | 5% | 93% | |
| 16 | 9% | 88% | |
| 17 | 7% | 79% | |
| 18 | 15% | 72% | |
| 19 | 14% | 57% | |
| 20 | 9% | 43% | Median |
| 21 | 11% | 34% | |
| 22 | 9% | 23% | |
| 23 | 4% | 14% | |
| 24 | 4% | 9% | |
| 25 | 4% | 6% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): Aftenposten and NRK
- Fieldwork period: 10–14 December 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.41%