Opinion Poll by Norstat for Dagbladet, NRK and Vårt Land, 4–8 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.2% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
Høyre 20.4% 16.2% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Rødt 4.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.4%
Venstre 4.6% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 2.7% 2.2–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Pensjonistpartiet 0.6% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Norgesdemokratene 1.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Konservativt 0.4% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 55 53–57 48–59 47–59 47–60
Fremskrittspartiet 21 50 46–50 42–50 40–50 40–51
Høyre 36 27 27–31 26–32 26–32 24–33
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 13 13–16 11–17 10–17 10–18
Senterpartiet 28 12 10–12 10–12 10–12 8–14
Rødt 8 8 8–10 8–11 8–11 2–13
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–7
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 0–8
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–3
Pensjonistpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0
Norgesdemokratene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konservativt 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 5% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 95% Last Result
49 1.5% 95%  
50 0.6% 93%  
51 0.7% 93%  
52 2% 92%  
53 1.0% 91%  
54 0.7% 90%  
55 59% 89% Median
56 20% 30%  
57 2% 10%  
58 3% 9%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.6% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 4% 100%  
41 0.5% 96%  
42 1.2% 95%  
43 0.7% 94%  
44 0.6% 93%  
45 1.3% 92%  
46 2% 91%  
47 28% 89%  
48 4% 61%  
49 0.6% 57%  
50 55% 56% Median
51 0.3% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.4%  
26 4% 98.9%  
27 50% 95% Median
28 11% 45%  
29 3% 34%  
30 19% 31%  
31 6% 12%  
32 5% 6%  
33 0.5% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1% Last Result
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 3% 100%  
11 2% 97%  
12 1.4% 94%  
13 70% 93% Last Result, Median
14 6% 23%  
15 2% 18%  
16 6% 16%  
17 9% 10%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.8%  
9 0.8% 99.4%  
10 31% 98.7%  
11 5% 68%  
12 61% 63% Median
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.8% 0.9%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0% 99.5%  
7 0.1% 99.5%  
8 51% 99.3% Last Result, Median
9 34% 49%  
10 8% 15%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 19% 100%  
2 73% 81% Median
3 7% 8%  
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0.7% 1.2%  
8 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 26% 99.4%  
2 70% 73% Median
3 2% 3% Last Result
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.2% 0.8%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Median
1 25% 28%  
2 0.9% 2%  
3 1.4% 2% Last Result
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Pensjonistpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Norgesdemokratene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konservativt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 90 99.5% 90–92 86–95 86–95 84–97
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 91 98.7% 87–91 86–95 86–95 82–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 88 98% 88–91 85–93 85–94 81–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 82 6% 81–83 76–86 76–86 76–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 82 6% 79–83 76–86 76–86 75–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 80 5% 78–82 75–84 75–85 74–85
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 81 2% 78–81 76–84 75–84 75–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 78 1.3% 78–82 74–83 74–83 73–87
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 79 0.5% 77–79 74–83 74–83 72–85
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 65 79 0.4% 77–79 74–83 74–83 71–84
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 57 77 0.1% 74–77 72–81 72–81 69–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 68 0% 67–72 63–73 63–73 62–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 69 0% 66–71 62–72 60–72 60–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 67 0% 65–69 60–71 59–71 59–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 67 0% 65–68 59–70 59–71 59–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 29 0% 29–33 29–34 29–35 28–38
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 14 0% 12–14 12–15 12–16 11–19

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.7%  
82 0.1% 99.7%  
83 0% 99.6%  
84 0.1% 99.6%  
85 0.3% 99.5% Majority
86 6% 99.2%  
87 0.7% 93%  
88 1.4% 92%  
89 0.6% 91%  
90 68% 90% Median
91 4% 22%  
92 10% 18%  
93 2% 8%  
94 0.4% 6%  
95 4% 6%  
96 0.7% 1.3%  
97 0.6% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.1% 99.4%  
84 0.7% 99.4%  
85 0.2% 98.7% Majority
86 5% 98.5%  
87 9% 93%  
88 2% 84%  
89 23% 82%  
90 0.6% 59%  
91 50% 59% Median
92 0.5% 9%  
93 1.5% 8%  
94 0.4% 7%  
95 6% 7%  
96 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
97 0.1% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.1% 99.7%  
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 0.2% 99.5%  
83 0.3% 99.2%  
84 1.4% 99.0%  
85 5% 98% Majority
86 0.8% 93%  
87 1.5% 92%  
88 68% 90% Median
89 2% 23%  
90 5% 21%  
91 10% 16%  
92 1.2% 6%  
93 0.5% 5%  
94 4% 5%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 5% 99.7%  
77 2% 95%  
78 0.4% 93%  
79 1.3% 93%  
80 0.7% 91%  
81 4% 91%  
82 69% 87% Median
83 11% 18%  
84 1.2% 8%  
85 0.7% 6% Majority
86 5% 6%  
87 0.7% 0.9%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.5%  
76 6% 99.4%  
77 0.6% 93%  
78 0.9% 93%  
79 2% 92%  
80 4% 90%  
81 19% 86%  
82 49% 67% Median
83 11% 18%  
84 0.9% 7%  
85 0.6% 6% Majority
86 5% 5%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.6%  
74 2% 99.5%  
75 5% 98%  
76 0.7% 93%  
77 0.8% 92%  
78 2% 91%  
79 23% 90%  
80 51% 67% Median
81 0.6% 16%  
82 10% 16%  
83 0.5% 6%  
84 0.4% 5%  
85 5% 5% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 4% 99.7%  
76 0.5% 95%  
77 1.2% 95%  
78 10% 94%  
79 5% 84%  
80 2% 79%  
81 68% 77% Median
82 1.5% 10%  
83 0.8% 8%  
84 5% 7%  
85 1.4% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
73 0.2% 99.5%  
74 6% 99.3%  
75 0.4% 93%  
76 1.5% 93%  
77 0.5% 92%  
78 50% 91% Median
79 0.6% 41%  
80 23% 41%  
81 2% 18%  
82 9% 16%  
83 5% 7%  
84 0.2% 1.5%  
85 0.7% 1.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.6%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.6% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.3%  
74 4% 98.7%  
75 0.4% 94%  
76 2% 94%  
77 10% 92%  
78 4% 82%  
79 68% 78% Median
80 0.6% 10%  
81 1.4% 9%  
82 0.7% 8%  
83 6% 7%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.5% Majority
86 0% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0.6% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.3%  
73 0.7% 99.1%  
74 5% 98%  
75 0.5% 93%  
76 2% 93%  
77 13% 91%  
78 19% 78%  
79 50% 59% Median
80 0.7% 9%  
81 0.9% 8%  
82 2% 7%  
83 5% 5%  
84 0.2% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0.4%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 0.8% 99.3%  
71 0.7% 98.5%  
72 5% 98%  
73 0.4% 93%  
74 6% 92%  
75 10% 87%  
76 0.7% 77%  
77 68% 76% Median
78 0.7% 8%  
79 2% 8%  
80 0.1% 5%  
81 5% 5%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
62 0.2% 99.5%  
63 5% 99.3%  
64 2% 94%  
65 0.5% 92%  
66 2% 92%  
67 0.6% 90%  
68 54% 90% Median
69 20% 36%  
70 0.2% 16%  
71 1.2% 16%  
72 9% 15%  
73 5% 5%  
74 0.1% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 5% 100%  
61 0.2% 95%  
62 1.4% 95%  
63 0.4% 94%  
64 0.5% 93%  
65 0.8% 93%  
66 10% 92%  
67 0.8% 82%  
68 0.7% 81%  
69 68% 80% Median
70 0.4% 12%  
71 5% 12%  
72 6% 7%  
73 0.9% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 5% 99.9%  
60 2% 95%  
61 0.2% 94%  
62 0.3% 94%  
63 0.9% 93%  
64 0.5% 93%  
65 12% 92%  
66 0.7% 80%  
67 68% 80% Median
68 0.7% 11%  
69 1.1% 11%  
70 5% 10%  
71 5% 5%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 6% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 94%  
61 0.7% 94%  
62 0.3% 93%  
63 0.8% 93%  
64 1.5% 92%  
65 11% 90%  
66 19% 79%  
67 50% 60% Median
68 0.3% 10%  
69 4% 10%  
70 0.6% 5%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 49% 99.2% Median
30 14% 50%  
31 0.7% 35%  
32 19% 35%  
33 7% 16%  
34 5% 8%  
35 1.3% 3%  
36 0.7% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.5%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.7%  
12 28% 98.9%  
13 0.7% 71%  
14 61% 70% Median
15 6% 10%  
16 2% 4%  
17 0.6% 2%  
18 0.1% 1.2%  
19 0.6% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations