Opinion Poll by Norstat for Dagbladet, NRK and Vårt Land, 31 March–7 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 27.9% 26.1–29.8% 25.6–30.3% 25.2–30.7% 24.3–31.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 21.0% 19.4–22.8% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.7% 17.9–24.5%
Høyre 20.4% 18.9% 17.4–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.6–21.5% 15.9–22.3%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 7.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.8–9.0% 5.4–9.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 6.3% 5.4–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Venstre 4.6% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Rødt 4.7% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Norgesdemokratene 1.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Konservativt 0.4% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Pensjonistpartiet 0.6% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 51 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–58
Fremskrittspartiet 21 44 38–44 36–44 35–44 34–45
Høyre 36 35 34–37 34–39 33–39 31–42
Senterpartiet 28 12 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–17
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 9–16
Venstre 8 9 3–9 3–9 2–9 2–10
Rødt 8 1 1–9 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–3 1–3 1–7 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 2–3 2–3 1–8 1–10
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Norgesdemokratene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konservativt 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensjonistpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 4% 99.4%  
48 4% 95% Last Result
49 4% 91%  
50 6% 87%  
51 52% 81% Median
52 8% 29%  
53 10% 20%  
54 5% 11%  
55 3% 6%  
56 0.3% 2%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.8%  
35 2% 98%  
36 2% 96%  
37 3% 94%  
38 2% 91%  
39 3% 88%  
40 12% 85%  
41 8% 73%  
42 9% 65%  
43 4% 56%  
44 51% 52% Median
45 0.1% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 1.2% 99.2%  
33 2% 98%  
34 12% 96%  
35 59% 84% Median
36 10% 25% Last Result
37 5% 14%  
38 2% 9%  
39 5% 7%  
40 0.6% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.4%  
42 0.6% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 1.3% 99.6%  
12 61% 98% Median
13 10% 37%  
14 19% 27%  
15 7% 8%  
16 1.2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.6%  
18 0.2% 0.4%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.8%  
10 7% 99.3%  
11 7% 92%  
12 62% 85% Median
13 18% 23% Last Result
14 4% 5%  
15 1.0% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.7%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 25% 97%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 1.0% 72%  
8 5% 71% Last Result
9 65% 66% Median
10 0.5% 0.8%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 71% 100% Median
2 0.5% 29%  
3 0.2% 28%  
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0% 28%  
7 0.5% 28%  
8 13% 28% Last Result
9 14% 15%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 13% 100%  
2 61% 87% Median
3 23% 26% Last Result
4 0.4% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0.6% 3%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 4% 99.7%  
2 18% 96%  
3 75% 78% Last Result, Median
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0.3% 3%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.4% 1.1%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 2%  
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Norgesdemokratene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konservativt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pensjonistpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 103 100% 93–104 92–105 91–105 89–105
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 93 76% 82–93 82–94 80–95 78–95
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 91 71% 80–91 79–91 78–92 77–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 78 28% 78–89 78–90 77–91 77–92
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 65 88 64% 77–88 77–88 76–89 74–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 97 76 24% 76–87 75–87 74–89 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 80 8% 80–84 79–86 79–87 76–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 77 2% 77–81 76–82 76–83 74–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 75 0.5% 75–78 73–80 73–82 71–84
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 57 79 0% 74–79 73–80 71–80 68–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 66 0% 65–76 64–77 64–78 64–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 68 0% 68–73 66–74 66–75 64–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 66 0% 65–71 63–71 63–72 62–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 63 0% 63–67 61–68 60–69 59–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 63 0% 61–66 60–67 60–68 58–72
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 47 0% 40–48 40–49 40–51 36–52
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 24 0% 17–26 17–26 17–26 14–29

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.9%  
90 0.7% 99.5%  
91 3% 98.8%  
92 2% 96%  
93 8% 94%  
94 9% 86%  
95 2% 78%  
96 3% 76% Last Result
97 2% 73%  
98 1.4% 71%  
99 1.4% 70%  
100 0.5% 68%  
101 3% 68%  
102 5% 65%  
103 48% 60% Median
104 4% 12%  
105 7% 7%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 1.4% 100%  
79 0.1% 98.6%  
80 2% 98.5%  
81 0.7% 96%  
82 9% 96%  
83 10% 87%  
84 0.4% 76%  
85 2% 76% Majority
86 0.9% 74%  
87 1.1% 73%  
88 2% 72%  
89 3% 70%  
90 4% 67%  
91 2% 63%  
92 2% 61%  
93 54% 59% Median
94 1.1% 5%  
95 4% 4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.7%  
78 1.1% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 9% 94%  
81 10% 85%  
82 0.9% 75%  
83 2% 74%  
84 0.9% 72%  
85 2% 71% Majority
86 1.2% 69%  
87 3% 68%  
88 5% 65%  
89 0.7% 61%  
90 7% 60%  
91 49% 53% Median
92 4% 4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 4% 99.7%  
78 49% 96% Median
79 7% 47%  
80 0.7% 40%  
81 5% 39%  
82 3% 34%  
83 0.9% 31%  
84 2% 30%  
85 0.5% 28% Majority
86 2% 28%  
87 0.8% 25%  
88 10% 25%  
89 9% 14%  
90 3% 6%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 2% 2%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 1.3% 99.6%  
75 0.6% 98%  
76 2% 98%  
77 9% 95%  
78 2% 87%  
79 10% 85%  
80 2% 75%  
81 3% 73%  
82 2% 70%  
83 2% 68%  
84 3% 67%  
85 5% 64% Majority
86 0.3% 59%  
87 3% 58%  
88 50% 55% Median
89 4% 5%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 4% 99.7%  
75 1.0% 96%  
76 54% 94% Median
77 2% 41%  
78 2% 39%  
79 4% 37%  
80 2% 33%  
81 2% 30%  
82 1.2% 28%  
83 1.4% 27%  
84 2% 26%  
85 0.6% 24% Majority
86 10% 23%  
87 9% 13%  
88 0.7% 4%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.1% 1.5%  
91 1.4% 1.4%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.4%  
78 0.2% 99.0%  
79 6% 98.8%  
80 52% 93% Median
81 13% 40%  
82 1.1% 27%  
83 7% 26%  
84 11% 20%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 1.4% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.4%  
90 0.4% 0.9%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1% Last Result
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.1%  
76 5% 98.6%  
77 49% 93% Median
78 8% 44%  
79 10% 35%  
80 6% 25%  
81 11% 19%  
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 0.5% 2%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.1% 1.2%  
87 0.5% 1.1%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.2% 99.5%  
72 0.8% 99.4%  
73 5% 98.6%  
74 2% 93%  
75 54% 91% Median
76 4% 37%  
77 5% 33%  
78 20% 29%  
79 2% 9%  
80 1.4% 6%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.2% 1.2%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.1%  
70 0.9% 98.8%  
71 2% 98%  
72 0.7% 96%  
73 3% 96%  
74 10% 92%  
75 4% 83%  
76 15% 79%  
77 1.2% 64%  
78 6% 63%  
79 51% 57% Median
80 5% 6%  
81 0.9% 1.2%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 7% 99.6%  
65 4% 93%  
66 48% 88% Median
67 5% 40%  
68 3% 35%  
69 1.0% 32%  
70 1.4% 31%  
71 1.5% 30%  
72 1.4% 28% Last Result
73 3% 27%  
74 2% 24%  
75 9% 22%  
76 8% 14%  
77 2% 6%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.7% 1.2%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 1.2% 99.4%  
66 5% 98%  
67 0.6% 93%  
68 61% 92% Median
69 2% 32%  
70 5% 29%  
71 2% 25%  
72 11% 23%  
73 6% 12%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.5% 4%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.9%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.5%  
63 5% 98.9%  
64 2% 94%  
65 4% 92%  
66 51% 88% Median
67 12% 36%  
68 3% 25%  
69 9% 22%  
70 2% 13%  
71 6% 11%  
72 3% 5%  
73 0.2% 2%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 4% 99.4%  
61 1.2% 95%  
62 3% 94%  
63 53% 91% Median
64 8% 38%  
65 9% 30%  
66 8% 21%  
67 4% 13%  
68 6% 9%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.8%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.6%  
59 0.7% 99.1%  
60 7% 98%  
61 6% 91% Last Result
62 4% 85%  
63 49% 81% Median
64 15% 32%  
65 3% 17%  
66 9% 14%  
67 0.9% 6%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.2% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.8%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.0% 99.9%  
37 0% 98.9%  
38 0.4% 98.9%  
39 0.3% 98.5%  
40 15% 98%  
41 5% 84%  
42 2% 79%  
43 2% 77%  
44 1.2% 75%  
45 2% 74%  
46 6% 72%  
47 52% 66% Last Result, Median
48 8% 14%  
49 1.0% 6%  
50 1.2% 5%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 1.2%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 0.4% 99.3%  
16 0.3% 98.9%  
17 10% 98.6%  
18 0.8% 89%  
19 2% 88%  
20 12% 86%  
21 0.9% 75%  
22 1.3% 74%  
23 4% 72%  
24 49% 69% Median
25 5% 20%  
26 14% 15%  
27 0.4% 1.4%  
28 0.4% 1.1%  
29 0.3% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.4%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations