Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and VG, 7–12 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 27.0–31.8% 26.6–32.3% 25.8–33.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.0–23.3% 18.6–23.7% 17.9–24.5%
Høyre 20.4% 18.6% 17.1–20.2% 16.6–20.7% 16.3–21.1% 15.6–21.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Rødt 4.7% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Venstre 4.6% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 55 50–58 49–59 49–61 48–62
Fremskrittspartiet 21 39 36–42 35–43 35–44 33–45
Høyre 36 32 30–36 29–37 29–38 27–40
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 11 10–13 9–14 9–15 8–16
Senterpartiet 28 9 7–11 6–11 1–12 0–13
Rødt 8 8 1–10 1–10 1–11 1–11
Venstre 8 7 6–9 3–10 3–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 7 3–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 0–6
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
49 7% 99.0%  
50 4% 92%  
51 5% 88%  
52 8% 83%  
53 5% 75%  
54 13% 70%  
55 11% 57% Median
56 7% 46%  
57 21% 40%  
58 10% 18%  
59 4% 9%  
60 2% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.9% 1.2%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.2%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 94%  
37 6% 88%  
38 15% 81%  
39 18% 66% Median
40 17% 48%  
41 11% 31%  
42 13% 20%  
43 3% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.1% 99.8%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 1.2% 98.8%  
29 7% 98%  
30 4% 91%  
31 19% 86%  
32 24% 67% Median
33 11% 44%  
34 17% 33%  
35 4% 15%  
36 4% 11% Last Result
37 2% 7%  
38 2% 4%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 6% 98%  
10 26% 92%  
11 25% 65% Median
12 17% 40%  
13 15% 22% Last Result
14 4% 8%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.6% 1.0%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 2% 98.7%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 4% 97%  
7 14% 94%  
8 24% 80%  
9 22% 55% Median
10 21% 33%  
11 9% 13%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.9% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100%  
2 0.2% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 4% 89%  
7 22% 85%  
8 33% 63% Last Result, Median
9 17% 30%  
10 10% 13%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.0% 100%  
3 7% 99.0%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 12% 92%  
7 31% 81% Median
8 22% 50% Last Result
9 20% 28%  
10 7% 8%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 5% 99.2%  
3 25% 94% Last Result
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 6% 70%  
7 31% 63% Median
8 23% 32%  
9 8% 9%  
10 1.0% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 74% 99.3% Median
2 20% 25%  
3 4% 5% Last Result
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0.4% 0.8%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 94 99.7% 90–99 88–100 88–100 85–102
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 87 74% 82–91 81–93 80–93 78–96
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 85 65% 81–90 80–91 78–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 84 35% 79–88 78–89 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 82 25% 78–88 77–89 76–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 82 26% 78–87 76–88 76–89 73–91
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 65 79 6% 75–84 73–85 73–85 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 76 0.6% 72–81 71–81 70–82 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 0.3% 70–79 69–81 69–81 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 75 0.1% 70–80 69–80 69–81 66–83
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 57 72 0% 68–76 67–77 66–78 64–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 70 0% 66–77 65–78 65–78 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 69 0% 65–76 64–76 63–77 59–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 67 0% 62–70 60–71 60–72 59–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 64 0% 60–68 59–69 57–70 55–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 46 0% 42–50 41–51 40–52 38–54
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 22 0% 19–26 17–27 16–29 13–30

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.7% Majority
86 0.5% 99.2%  
87 1.0% 98.6%  
88 3% 98%  
89 4% 95%  
90 7% 91%  
91 7% 84%  
92 8% 78%  
93 14% 69%  
94 9% 55% Median
95 13% 46%  
96 8% 33% Last Result
97 10% 25%  
98 4% 16%  
99 6% 12%  
100 3% 5%  
101 0.7% 2%  
102 1.2% 2%  
103 0.1% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.6%  
79 0.8% 99.0%  
80 1.2% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 5% 94%  
83 6% 90%  
84 10% 84%  
85 7% 74% Majority
86 14% 67% Median
87 9% 52%  
88 15% 44%  
89 10% 29%  
90 5% 19%  
91 6% 14%  
92 3% 8%  
93 3% 5%  
94 1.3% 2%  
95 0.4% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 1.3% 99.4%  
78 0.6% 98%  
79 1.1% 97%  
80 3% 96%  
81 5% 94%  
82 6% 89%  
83 11% 82%  
84 6% 71%  
85 15% 65% Median, Majority
86 12% 50%  
87 11% 37%  
88 10% 26%  
89 5% 17%  
90 4% 11%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 1.0% 99.2%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 96%  
79 4% 93%  
80 5% 89%  
81 10% 83%  
82 11% 74%  
83 12% 63%  
84 15% 50% Median
85 6% 35% Majority
86 11% 29%  
87 6% 18%  
88 5% 11%  
89 3% 6%  
90 1.1% 4%  
91 0.6% 3%  
92 1.3% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 1.3% 99.1%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 7% 91%  
79 7% 84%  
80 12% 77%  
81 10% 65%  
82 10% 55%  
83 14% 45% Median
84 6% 31%  
85 6% 25% Majority
86 4% 19%  
87 2% 15%  
88 4% 13%  
89 8% 9%  
90 0.4% 1.1%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.4% 99.4%  
75 1.3% 98.9%  
76 3% 98%  
77 3% 95%  
78 6% 92%  
79 5% 86%  
80 10% 81%  
81 15% 71%  
82 9% 56%  
83 14% 48% Median
84 7% 33%  
85 10% 26% Majority
86 6% 16%  
87 5% 10%  
88 2% 6%  
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.0%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.6%  
72 1.0% 99.3%  
73 4% 98%  
74 3% 95%  
75 5% 92%  
76 3% 87%  
77 6% 84%  
78 12% 77% Median
79 19% 65%  
80 12% 46%  
81 7% 33%  
82 11% 26%  
83 5% 15%  
84 5% 11%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 1.0% 99.1%  
70 3% 98%  
71 4% 95%  
72 4% 91%  
73 10% 87%  
74 9% 77%  
75 8% 68%  
76 16% 59% Median
77 9% 43%  
78 9% 34%  
79 9% 25%  
80 3% 16%  
81 10% 14%  
82 1.5% 4%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 1.2% 99.5%  
68 0.7% 98%  
69 3% 98%  
70 6% 95%  
71 4% 88%  
72 10% 84% Last Result
73 8% 75%  
74 13% 67%  
75 9% 54% Median
76 14% 45%  
77 8% 31%  
78 7% 22%  
79 7% 16%  
80 4% 9%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.4%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.5%  
68 1.1% 98.8%  
69 3% 98%  
70 5% 94%  
71 6% 89%  
72 9% 83%  
73 10% 74%  
74 10% 64%  
75 14% 54% Median
76 8% 39%  
77 10% 32%  
78 7% 22%  
79 2% 15%  
80 10% 13%  
81 1.2% 3%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.8%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 1.1% 99.3%  
66 3% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 5% 91%  
69 4% 87%  
70 13% 82%  
71 7% 70% Median
72 20% 62%  
73 16% 42%  
74 7% 26%  
75 7% 19%  
76 6% 12%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.5%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 1.0% 98.9%  
64 0.4% 98%  
65 4% 98%  
66 5% 94%  
67 6% 89%  
68 8% 83%  
69 14% 75%  
70 13% 61%  
71 7% 49%  
72 6% 41% Median
73 14% 36%  
74 6% 22%  
75 3% 16%  
76 1.3% 14%  
77 6% 12%  
78 5% 6%  
79 0.6% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 0.3% 99.4%  
61 0.5% 99.2%  
62 0.9% 98.7%  
63 1.2% 98%  
64 5% 97%  
65 6% 92%  
66 6% 86%  
67 9% 80%  
68 13% 72%  
69 12% 58%  
70 8% 46%  
71 5% 38% Median
72 16% 33%  
73 3% 18%  
74 2% 15%  
75 1.4% 13%  
76 7% 12%  
77 4% 4%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.6%  
60 4% 98.8%  
61 2% 95% Last Result
62 7% 93%  
63 10% 86%  
64 10% 76%  
65 8% 66%  
66 8% 58% Median
67 16% 51%  
68 10% 35%  
69 5% 25%  
70 13% 20%  
71 5% 7%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.2% 99.5%  
56 0.6% 99.3%  
57 1.5% 98.7%  
58 2% 97%  
59 5% 96%  
60 7% 90%  
61 13% 83%  
62 9% 70%  
63 11% 62%  
64 10% 51% Median
65 15% 41%  
66 9% 26%  
67 3% 17%  
68 8% 14%  
69 3% 5%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 0.7% 99.2%  
40 2% 98%  
41 2% 96%  
42 7% 94%  
43 9% 87%  
44 10% 78%  
45 7% 68%  
46 14% 61% Median
47 16% 47% Last Result
48 12% 31%  
49 4% 19%  
50 8% 16%  
51 4% 8%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.8%  
13 0.4% 99.7%  
14 1.0% 99.3%  
15 0.5% 98%  
16 1.4% 98%  
17 3% 96%  
18 3% 94%  
19 10% 91%  
20 8% 81%  
21 19% 73%  
22 8% 54%  
23 13% 46% Median
24 8% 33%  
25 11% 26%  
26 9% 15%  
27 2% 6%  
28 0.6% 4%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.3% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations