Opinion Poll by Norstat for NRK, 29 April–16 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 29.4% 28.9–29.9% 28.8–30.0% 28.6–30.1% 28.4–30.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 20.6% 20.1–21.0% 20.0–21.1% 19.9–21.2% 19.7–21.4%
Høyre 20.4% 18.4% 18.0–18.8% 17.9–18.9% 17.8–19.0% 17.6–19.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 6.5% 6.2–6.8% 6.2–6.8% 6.1–6.9% 6.0–7.0%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 5.5% 5.3–5.7% 5.2–5.8% 5.1–5.9% 5.0–6.0%
Rødt 4.7% 5.4% 5.2–5.6% 5.1–5.7% 5.0–5.8% 4.9–5.9%
Venstre 4.6% 4.0% 3.8–4.2% 3.7–4.3% 3.7–4.3% 3.6–4.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.5% 3.3–3.7% 3.2–3.7% 3.2–3.8% 3.1–3.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 3.1% 2.9–3.3% 2.9–3.4% 2.8–3.4% 2.7–3.5%
Norgesdemokratene 1.1% 0.8% 0.7–0.9% 0.7–0.9% 0.7–1.0% 0.6–1.0%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 0.7% 0.6–0.8% 0.6–0.8% 0.6–0.9% 0.5–0.9%
Konservativt 0.4% 0.6% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.7% 0.4–0.8%
Pensjonistpartiet 0.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.4% 0.2–0.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 58 54–58 54–58 53–58 53–58
Fremskrittspartiet 21 39 39–40 39–41 39–41 39–41
Høyre 36 32 32–34 32–35 32–35 32–35
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 12 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Senterpartiet 28 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–11
Rødt 8 10 9–10 8–10 8–10 8–11
Venstre 8 3 3–7 3–7 3–7 3–7
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 3 3 3 2–3
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Norgesdemokratene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konservativt 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensjonistpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100% Last Result
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 3% 99.9%  
54 10% 97%  
55 13% 87%  
56 4% 74%  
57 3% 69%  
58 66% 66% Median
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 100%  
39 71% 99.8% Median
40 19% 29%  
41 10% 10%  
42 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 70% 99.8% Median
33 4% 30%  
34 17% 26%  
35 9% 9%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.4% 100%  
10 10% 98.6%  
11 11% 89%  
12 76% 78% Median
13 2% 2% Last Result
14 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.1% 100%  
9 22% 98.9%  
10 76% 77% Median
11 0.9% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 7% 100% Last Result
9 17% 93%  
10 75% 76% Median
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 78% 100% Median
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0.1% 22%  
7 22% 22%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 99.0% 99.1% Last Result, Median
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 95% 98% Median
3 3% 3% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Norgesdemokratene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konservativt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pensjonistpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 87 100% 87–93 87–94 87–94 87–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 92 94% 85–92 84–92 84–92 84–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 90 84% 83–90 82–90 82–90 82–90
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 79 16% 79–86 79–87 79–87 79–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 85 61% 79–85 79–85 78–85 78–85
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 77 6% 77–84 77–85 77–85 77–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 82 0% 76–82 75–82 75–82 75–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 82 0% 76–82 76–82 75–82 75–82
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 65 74 0% 74–81 74–82 74–82 74–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 80 0% 74–80 74–80 73–80 73–80
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 57 71 0% 71–74 71–75 71–75 71–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 73 0% 68–73 68–73 68–73 67–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 71 0% 66–71 66–71 66–71 65–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 70 0% 65–70 65–70 64–70 64–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 68 0% 63–68 63–68 63–68 62–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 38 0% 38–44 38–44 38–44 38–44
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 16 0% 16–19 16–19 15–19 15–20

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 62% 99.9% Median
88 3% 38%  
89 1.0% 34%  
90 9% 33%  
91 6% 24%  
92 3% 18%  
93 8% 15%  
94 7% 7%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 6% 100%  
85 10% 94% Majority
86 0.8% 84%  
87 6% 84%  
88 2% 78%  
89 9% 76%  
90 1.0% 67%  
91 6% 66%  
92 60% 60% Median
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 6% 100%  
83 10% 94%  
84 0.7% 85%  
85 6% 84% Majority
86 2% 78%  
87 10% 76%  
88 3% 66%  
89 4% 63%  
90 60% 60% Median
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 60% 100% Median
80 4% 40%  
81 3% 37%  
82 10% 34%  
83 2% 24%  
84 6% 22%  
85 0.7% 16% Majority
86 10% 15%  
87 6% 6%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 3% 99.9%  
79 13% 97%  
80 1.0% 85%  
81 4% 84%  
82 13% 79%  
83 2% 67%  
84 5% 65%  
85 61% 61% Median, Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 60% 100% Median
78 6% 40%  
79 1.0% 34%  
80 9% 33%  
81 2% 24%  
82 6% 22%  
83 0.8% 16%  
84 10% 16%  
85 6% 6% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 7% 100%  
76 8% 93%  
77 3% 85%  
78 6% 82%  
79 9% 76%  
80 1.0% 67%  
81 3% 66%  
82 62% 62% Median
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 3% 100%  
76 13% 97%  
77 0.9% 85%  
78 4% 84%  
79 13% 79%  
80 2% 67%  
81 4% 65%  
82 61% 61% Median
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 60% 100% Median
75 6% 40%  
76 1.1% 35%  
77 9% 33%  
78 2% 24%  
79 6% 22%  
80 0.8% 16%  
81 9% 15%  
82 6% 6%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 3% 100%  
74 13% 97%  
75 0.5% 84%  
76 4% 84%  
77 13% 80%  
78 4% 67%  
79 2% 63%  
80 61% 61% Median
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 100%  
71 60% 99.9% Median
72 12% 40%  
73 2% 28%  
74 19% 27%  
75 8% 8%  
76 0.3% 0.3%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 2% 99.9%  
68 9% 98%  
69 7% 89%  
70 10% 82%  
71 3% 72%  
72 8% 69%  
73 61% 61% Median
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 2% 99.9%  
66 9% 98%  
67 7% 89%  
68 10% 82%  
69 6% 72%  
70 5% 66%  
71 61% 61% Median
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 4% 99.9%  
65 11% 96%  
66 2% 85%  
67 12% 83%  
68 5% 70%  
69 4% 65%  
70 61% 61% Median
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 2% 100%  
63 9% 98%  
64 7% 89%  
65 10% 82%  
66 6% 72%  
67 5% 67%  
68 61% 61% Median
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 64% 100% Median
39 3% 36%  
40 2% 33%  
41 9% 31%  
42 6% 22%  
43 0.8% 16%  
44 15% 15%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 3% 100%  
16 74% 97% Median
17 0.6% 23%  
18 1.2% 22%  
19 19% 21%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations