Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 12–19 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 27.5% 25.7–29.4% 25.2–29.9% 24.8–30.4% 24.0–31.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Høyre 20.4% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 15.0–21.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Rødt 4.7% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Venstre 4.6% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Norgesdemokratene 1.1% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Konservativt 0.4% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 52 50–54 49–56 48–57 46–60
Fremskrittspartiet 21 43 38–43 37–43 37–45 35–46
Høyre 36 34 32–36 30–37 30–38 28–39
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 13 12–15 11–17 10–17 9–18
Senterpartiet 28 12 9–14 9–15 9–15 8–16
Rødt 8 9 1–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 3 3–8 3–9 3–9 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 2 2–3 2–7 1–8 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–4
Norgesdemokratene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Konservativt 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.4%  
48 2% 98% Last Result
49 3% 96%  
50 6% 93%  
51 1.2% 87%  
52 52% 86% Median
53 15% 34%  
54 11% 19%  
55 1.5% 8%  
56 4% 7%  
57 1.2% 3%  
58 0.3% 2%  
59 0.3% 1.2%  
60 0.6% 0.9%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 0.6% 99.6%  
36 0.8% 99.0%  
37 4% 98%  
38 5% 94%  
39 4% 89%  
40 8% 85%  
41 4% 77%  
42 20% 73%  
43 50% 54% Median
44 1.3% 4%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 0.4% 99.3%  
30 5% 98.9%  
31 3% 94%  
32 6% 91%  
33 6% 86%  
34 52% 80% Median
35 15% 28%  
36 8% 13% Last Result
37 2% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0% 0.3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.5%  
10 2% 99.1%  
11 3% 97%  
12 15% 94%  
13 55% 79% Last Result, Median
14 12% 24%  
15 2% 12%  
16 3% 10%  
17 6% 7%  
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 15% 98%  
10 3% 83%  
11 10% 80%  
12 56% 70% Median
13 4% 15%  
14 3% 10%  
15 6% 8%  
16 1.1% 1.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 16% 100%  
2 0.4% 84%  
3 0.1% 84%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 2% 83%  
8 23% 82% Last Result
9 55% 58% Median
10 2% 3%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 62% 99.2% Median
4 0% 37%  
5 0% 37%  
6 0.1% 37%  
7 16% 37%  
8 15% 22% Last Result
9 5% 7%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 1.0% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 4% 99.6%  
2 73% 96% Median
3 16% 22% Last Result
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 2% 7%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 83% 99.8% Median
2 10% 16%  
3 6% 6% Last Result
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0.3% 0.5%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Norgesdemokratene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 1.3%  
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Konservativt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 94 100% 92–98 91–99 90–101 87–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 87 70% 82–88 81–89 80–91 78–94
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 83 33% 82–88 81–90 79–90 76–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 86 67% 81–87 79–87 78–90 75–93
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 82 29% 81–87 80–88 78–89 75–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 80 13% 77–88 77–89 76–89 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 78 9% 75–84 74–87 73–87 72–88
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 65 80 6% 78–84 76–85 74–86 71–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 77 6% 74–82 73–86 71–86 70–86
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 57 77 0% 71–77 69–78 69–79 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 0% 71–76 70–78 68–79 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 67 0% 65–72 64–74 63–76 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 66 0% 64–71 62–72 62–75 61–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 65 0% 63–69 62–71 61–71 58–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–69 58–72
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 39 0% 39–46 39–47 38–49 36–50
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 17 0% 17–24 17–25 17–27 15–30

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.3% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.4% 99.3%  
89 0.8% 98.9%  
90 1.2% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 5% 95%  
93 2% 90%  
94 50% 88% Median
95 14% 38%  
96 8% 24% Last Result
97 4% 16%  
98 5% 11%  
99 3% 7%  
100 0.9% 4%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 1.2% 2%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 0.7% 99.2%  
80 2% 98%  
81 2% 96%  
82 5% 94%  
83 14% 88%  
84 4% 74%  
85 2% 70% Majority
86 2% 69%  
87 51% 67% Median
88 9% 16%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.1% 5%  
91 1.3% 4%  
92 0.3% 2%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 1.0% 1.4%  
95 0% 0.5%  
96 0.4% 0.4%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0.4% 100%  
75 0% 99.6%  
76 0.9% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 98.7%  
78 0.1% 98%  
79 1.0% 98%  
80 0.8% 97%  
81 1.3% 96%  
82 10% 95%  
83 49% 85% Median
84 3% 36%  
85 3% 33% Majority
86 2% 31%  
87 16% 29%  
88 6% 13%  
89 1.3% 8%  
90 4% 7%  
91 0.9% 2%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.8% 99.1%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 5% 97%  
80 2% 93%  
81 5% 91%  
82 16% 86%  
83 2% 71%  
84 3% 69%  
85 3% 67% Majority
86 49% 64% Median
87 10% 15%  
88 1.1% 5%  
89 0.8% 4%  
90 1.0% 3%  
91 0.1% 2%  
92 0.5% 2%  
93 0.9% 1.3%  
94 0% 0.4%  
95 0.4% 0.4%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.4% 100%  
74 0% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 99.5%  
76 0.7% 98.6%  
77 0.3% 98%  
78 1.3% 98%  
79 1.3% 96%  
80 2% 95%  
81 9% 93%  
82 51% 84% Median
83 2% 33%  
84 1.5% 31%  
85 4% 29% Majority
86 15% 26%  
87 6% 11%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 1.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 98.7%  
76 3% 98.5%  
77 12% 95%  
78 2% 83%  
79 2% 82%  
80 50% 79% Median
81 3% 29%  
82 3% 26%  
83 4% 23%  
84 6% 19%  
85 0.6% 13% Majority
86 2% 13%  
87 0.7% 11%  
88 2% 10%  
89 6% 8%  
90 0.4% 2%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.3%  
93 0% 1.0%  
94 0.8% 0.9%  
95 0% 0.1% Last Result
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 2% 99.6%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 15% 95%  
76 2% 80%  
77 2% 77%  
78 50% 76% Median
79 4% 26%  
80 4% 22%  
81 5% 18%  
82 1.0% 13%  
83 1.3% 12%  
84 1.3% 10%  
85 2% 9% Majority
86 1.4% 7%  
87 5% 6%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.5%  
73 0.3% 98%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 0.6% 96%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 3% 91%  
79 6% 88%  
80 53% 81% Median
81 1.1% 29%  
82 2% 27%  
83 3% 25%  
84 17% 22%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 0.6% 3%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.7%  
71 3% 99.1%  
72 0.9% 96%  
73 1.5% 95%  
74 16% 94%  
75 2% 78%  
76 2% 76%  
77 51% 74% Median
78 3% 22%  
79 3% 20%  
80 5% 16%  
81 1.1% 12%  
82 0.8% 10%  
83 1.4% 10%  
84 2% 8%  
85 0.3% 6% Majority
86 5% 6%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.6% 99.4%  
68 0.7% 98.8%  
69 4% 98%  
70 3% 94%  
71 2% 91%  
72 3% 89%  
73 3% 86%  
74 2% 82%  
75 4% 81%  
76 10% 76%  
77 61% 66% Median
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.3% 1.4%  
81 0.4% 1.1%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 1.1% 99.3%  
68 1.1% 98%  
69 0.9% 97%  
70 3% 96%  
71 5% 93%  
72 4% 88% Last Result
73 8% 84%  
74 14% 76%  
75 50% 62% Median
76 2% 12%  
77 5% 10%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.1%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 2% 99.6%  
64 4% 97%  
65 13% 94%  
66 3% 80%  
67 50% 77% Median
68 3% 27%  
69 4% 24%  
70 3% 20%  
71 3% 16%  
72 7% 13%  
73 0.7% 6%  
74 1.2% 6%  
75 0.9% 4%  
76 1.3% 3%  
77 0.2% 2%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.9% 1.1%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 1.2% 99.6%  
62 4% 98%  
63 2% 95%  
64 15% 92%  
65 3% 78%  
66 50% 75% Median
67 4% 25%  
68 4% 22%  
69 3% 18%  
70 3% 15%  
71 7% 12%  
72 1.3% 5%  
73 0.6% 4%  
74 0.5% 4%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.1% 1.1%  
77 0.9% 1.1%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 1.0% 99.8%  
59 0.2% 98.9%  
60 0.5% 98.7%  
61 1.4% 98% Last Result
62 3% 97%  
63 5% 94%  
64 5% 89%  
65 62% 85% Median
66 2% 23%  
67 2% 21%  
68 6% 19%  
69 4% 13%  
70 1.5% 9%  
71 6% 8%  
72 0.3% 1.3%  
73 0.4% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 3% 97%  
61 5% 93%  
62 15% 89%  
63 3% 73%  
64 50% 70% Median
65 4% 20%  
66 2% 17%  
67 4% 14%  
68 0.8% 10%  
69 7% 9%  
70 0.3% 2%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 1.0% 99.4%  
38 2% 98%  
39 49% 97% Median
40 1.4% 47%  
41 8% 46%  
42 4% 38%  
43 4% 34%  
44 18% 30%  
45 2% 13%  
46 2% 10%  
47 4% 8% Last Result
48 1.0% 4%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.5% 99.7%  
16 0.7% 99.3%  
17 50% 98.6% Median
18 15% 49%  
19 3% 34%  
20 7% 31%  
21 3% 24%  
22 8% 21%  
23 3% 13%  
24 4% 10%  
25 1.1% 6%  
26 2% 5%  
27 0.5% 3%  
28 0.9% 2%  
29 0.4% 1.4%  
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations