Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 5–6 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 26.8% 25.0–28.6% 24.6–29.2% 24.1–29.6% 23.3–30.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 20.8% 19.3–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.5% 17.7–24.3%
Høyre 20.4% 14.4% 13.0–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.7–17.4%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 6.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–8.9%
Rødt 4.7% 6.2% 5.4–7.3% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 6.2% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.4%
Venstre 4.6% 5.6% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Konservativt 0.4% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Norgesdemokratene 1.1% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Pensjonistpartiet 0.6% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 51 49–56 48–56 47–56 45–59
Fremskrittspartiet 21 40 34–42 34–43 34–44 34–45
Høyre 36 26 22–31 21–31 21–31 19–31
Senterpartiet 28 13 8–15 8–15 8–15 8–16
Rødt 8 11 9–13 9–13 9–13 7–14
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 10 9–13 9–13 8–13 7–15
Venstre 8 9 7–11 3–11 3–12 3–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 6 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 3 3–7 2–8 2–9 1–9
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Konservativt 0 0 0 0 0 0
Norgesdemokratene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensjonistpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.7%  
46 1.0% 98.9%  
47 1.4% 98%  
48 3% 96% Last Result
49 9% 94%  
50 30% 84%  
51 10% 55% Median
52 11% 44%  
53 4% 33%  
54 1.2% 29%  
55 1.0% 28%  
56 25% 27%  
57 0.4% 1.4%  
58 0.4% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 100%  
34 11% 99.7%  
35 0.6% 89%  
36 4% 88%  
37 0.7% 84%  
38 24% 83%  
39 6% 60%  
40 7% 53% Median
41 9% 46%  
42 26% 36%  
43 5% 10%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.9% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 1.2% 99.5%  
21 5% 98%  
22 5% 93%  
23 8% 88%  
24 16% 80%  
25 7% 64%  
26 21% 57% Median
27 1.2% 36%  
28 21% 35%  
29 2% 14%  
30 0.5% 13%  
31 12% 12%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 28% 99.8%  
9 3% 71%  
10 11% 68%  
11 2% 57%  
12 4% 56%  
13 13% 52% Median
14 26% 39%  
15 12% 13%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.6% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.4% Last Result
9 26% 98.6%  
10 15% 73%  
11 13% 57% Median
12 33% 44%  
13 8% 10%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 2% 98%  
9 40% 96%  
10 9% 56% Median
11 9% 47%  
12 24% 39%  
13 14% 15% Last Result
14 0.4% 1.0%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 7% 100%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 15% 93%  
8 15% 78% Last Result
9 20% 62% Median
10 21% 42%  
11 18% 21%  
12 2% 3%  
13 1.0% 1.1%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 19% 99.8%  
3 18% 81% Last Result
4 0% 63%  
5 0% 63%  
6 26% 63% Median
7 11% 37%  
8 12% 26%  
9 11% 13%  
10 0.4% 3%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 7% 98%  
3 52% 91% Last Result, Median
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 12% 39%  
7 19% 26%  
8 4% 7%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.6%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Konservativt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Norgesdemokratene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pensjonistpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 90 86% 82–98 82–98 82–98 82–99
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 90 98% 86–95 86–95 86–96 83–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 97 85 62% 76–95 76–95 76–95 76–95
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 71 84 37% 74–93 74–93 74–93 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 95 85 52% 79–89 79–89 78–90 75–93
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 79 14% 71–87 71–87 71–87 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 79 15% 73–86 73–86 73–86 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 79 2% 74–83 74–83 73–83 71–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 89 73 0% 67–83 67–83 67–83 67–83
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 65 74 0.1% 68–81 68–81 68–81 67–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 82 74 0.3% 67–77 67–80 67–81 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 67 0% 64–74 62–74 62–74 59–80
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 57 66 0% 58–73 58–73 58–73 57–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 64 0% 58–71 58–71 58–71 57–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 63 0% 59–68 58–68 57–68 55–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 40 0% 33–45 32–45 32–45 31–45
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 24 0% 20–30 20–30 20–31 19–33

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 12% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 88%  
84 2% 87%  
85 1.4% 86% Majority
86 0.8% 84%  
87 2% 84%  
88 14% 81%  
89 16% 67%  
90 2% 51%  
91 12% 49% Median
92 7% 37%  
93 3% 30%  
94 1.1% 26%  
95 10% 25%  
96 3% 15%  
97 0.3% 12%  
98 11% 11%  
99 0.5% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
101 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 1.0% 99.6%  
84 0.1% 98.6%  
85 0.9% 98% Majority
86 21% 98%  
87 7% 77%  
88 12% 70%  
89 3% 58%  
90 6% 54%  
91 13% 48% Median
92 2% 35%  
93 4% 33%  
94 10% 29%  
95 16% 19%  
96 2% 3% Last Result
97 0.3% 1.1%  
98 0.6% 0.8%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 13% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 87%  
78 0.8% 87%  
79 2% 86%  
80 5% 85%  
81 2% 79%  
82 2% 77%  
83 6% 75%  
84 6% 69%  
85 17% 62% Median, Majority
86 16% 45%  
87 11% 29%  
88 2% 18%  
89 4% 16%  
90 0.5% 12%  
91 0.6% 12%  
92 0.6% 11%  
93 0.2% 11%  
94 0% 10%  
95 10% 10%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 10% 99.9%  
75 0% 90%  
76 0.2% 89%  
77 0.6% 89%  
78 0.6% 89%  
79 0.5% 88%  
80 4% 88%  
81 2% 84%  
82 11% 82%  
83 16% 71%  
84 17% 55% Median
85 6% 37% Majority
86 6% 31%  
87 2% 25%  
88 2% 23%  
89 5% 21%  
90 2% 15%  
91 0.9% 14%  
92 0.1% 13%  
93 12% 13%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.5%  
77 1.1% 99.3%  
78 2% 98%  
79 20% 96%  
80 1.2% 76%  
81 2% 75%  
82 14% 72%  
83 5% 58% Median
84 2% 53%  
85 11% 52% Majority
86 15% 40%  
87 5% 25%  
88 4% 20%  
89 11% 16%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 0.8% 1.4%  
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.2%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 11% 99.3%  
72 0.3% 89%  
73 3% 88%  
74 10% 85%  
75 1.2% 75%  
76 3% 74%  
77 7% 70%  
78 12% 63% Median
79 2% 51%  
80 16% 49%  
81 14% 32%  
82 2% 18%  
83 1.2% 16%  
84 1.0% 15%  
85 2% 14% Majority
86 0.4% 13%  
87 12% 12%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.6% 99.8%  
73 12% 99.1%  
74 2% 87%  
75 2% 85%  
76 9% 83%  
77 2% 74%  
78 3% 72%  
79 25% 69%  
80 9% 45% Median
81 3% 35%  
82 13% 33%  
83 2% 20%  
84 4% 18%  
85 3% 15% Majority
86 11% 11%  
87 0.3% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.5%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Rødt – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.1% Last Result
73 2% 98.6%  
74 16% 97%  
75 10% 81%  
76 4% 71%  
77 2% 66%  
78 13% 65% Median
79 6% 52%  
80 3% 46%  
81 12% 42%  
82 7% 30%  
83 21% 23%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.1% 2% Majority
86 1.0% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 13% 99.6%  
68 0.3% 86%  
69 2% 86%  
70 2% 84%  
71 6% 83%  
72 6% 76%  
73 21% 71%  
74 17% 49% Median
75 3% 33%  
76 3% 30%  
77 10% 27%  
78 4% 16%  
79 0.6% 13%  
80 0.8% 12%  
81 0.3% 11%  
82 0.2% 11%  
83 11% 11%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0% 99.8%  
65 0% 99.7% Last Result
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.6% 99.5%  
68 11% 99.0%  
69 3% 87%  
70 6% 84%  
71 19% 79%  
72 4% 60%  
73 5% 56%  
74 1.4% 51%  
75 3% 49% Median
76 5% 46%  
77 15% 42%  
78 13% 27%  
79 0.2% 14%  
80 0.6% 14%  
81 12% 14%  
82 0.8% 1.4%  
83 0.6% 0.7%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 0.6% 99.4%  
67 10% 98.8%  
68 0.7% 89%  
69 11% 88%  
70 16% 77%  
71 1.0% 61%  
72 3% 61%  
73 5% 57% Median
74 4% 53%  
75 7% 49%  
76 10% 42%  
77 22% 32%  
78 3% 10%  
79 0.3% 7%  
80 2% 6%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.2% 2% Last Result
83 0.8% 1.3%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.3% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.9% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.0%  
61 0.9% 98.8%  
62 4% 98%  
63 2% 94%  
64 16% 93%  
65 9% 77%  
66 4% 68%  
67 21% 64% Median
68 6% 42%  
69 1.1% 36%  
70 5% 35%  
71 13% 30%  
72 1.2% 17%  
73 0.9% 16%  
74 13% 15%  
75 0.3% 2%  
76 0.3% 1.4%  
77 0.1% 1.1%  
78 0.4% 1.0%  
79 0% 0.6% Last Result
80 0.5% 0.5%  
81 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.6%  
57 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
58 11% 99.3%  
59 3% 89%  
60 1.0% 85%  
61 4% 84%  
62 5% 81%  
63 4% 76%  
64 15% 72%  
65 4% 57%  
66 16% 53% Median
67 3% 37%  
68 9% 34%  
69 11% 25%  
70 0.5% 14%  
71 0.5% 14%  
72 1.1% 13%  
73 12% 12%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 1.2% 99.7%  
58 13% 98.5%  
59 3% 85%  
60 1.3% 82%  
61 4% 81%  
62 13% 76%  
63 7% 63%  
64 34% 57% Median
65 6% 23%  
66 3% 17%  
67 2% 14%  
68 0.3% 13%  
69 0.4% 12%  
70 0.5% 12%  
71 11% 12%  
72 0.1% 0.4%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 0.6% 99.1%  
57 3% 98%  
58 5% 95%  
59 21% 90%  
60 6% 70%  
61 3% 64% Last Result, Median
62 6% 60%  
63 13% 54%  
64 13% 41%  
65 12% 28%  
66 4% 16%  
67 1.0% 13%  
68 11% 12%  
69 0.3% 0.9%  
70 0.2% 0.6%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.4% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.5%  
32 7% 99.4%  
33 3% 92%  
34 2% 89%  
35 0.7% 87%  
36 4% 86%  
37 16% 82%  
38 9% 65% Median
39 5% 57%  
40 22% 52%  
41 2% 30%  
42 12% 28%  
43 2% 16%  
44 0.3% 13%  
45 13% 13%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0.9% 99.8%  
20 10% 98.9%  
21 2% 89%  
22 34% 87%  
23 3% 53%  
24 5% 51%  
25 4% 46% Median
26 2% 42%  
27 2% 40%  
28 23% 38%  
29 4% 14%  
30 6% 10%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.5% 1.1%  
33 0.5% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations