Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for Aftenposten, Bergens Tidende and VG, 5–8 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Høyre 20.4% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Rødt 4.7% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Venstre 4.6% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Konservativt 0.4% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Norgesdemokratene 1.1% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Pensjonistpartiet 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 52 49–55 49–56 49–57 46–59
Fremskrittspartiet 21 41 35–42 33–42 33–42 33–43
Høyre 36 28 21–30 21–30 21–30 21–32
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 9–16
Senterpartiet 28 12 9–14 9–15 9–15 9–16
Rødt 8 10 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–13
Venstre 8 9 7–11 7–11 3–11 3–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 7 3–9 3–9 3–9 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–7
Konservativt 0 0 0 0 0 0
Norgesdemokratene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensjonistpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.6% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.4%  
48 0.9% 98.9% Last Result
49 21% 98%  
50 13% 77%  
51 2% 64%  
52 45% 62% Median
53 1.0% 17%  
54 1.5% 16%  
55 9% 15%  
56 3% 6%  
57 0.9% 3%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.8%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 8% 99.9%  
34 2% 92%  
35 0.7% 91%  
36 0.7% 90%  
37 5% 89%  
38 27% 84%  
39 4% 57%  
40 3% 53%  
41 33% 51% Median
42 17% 17%  
43 0.4% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 11% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 89%  
23 2% 88%  
24 3% 86%  
25 19% 83%  
26 3% 64%  
27 1.5% 61%  
28 34% 59% Median
29 2% 25%  
30 22% 23%  
31 0.4% 2%  
32 1.1% 1.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.0%  
11 34% 97%  
12 24% 64% Median
13 8% 40% Last Result
14 23% 31%  
15 7% 9%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 33% 99.9%  
10 4% 67%  
11 9% 63%  
12 18% 53% Median
13 23% 35%  
14 3% 13%  
15 8% 9%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.4% 99.9%  
8 4% 99.5% Last Result
9 9% 96%  
10 47% 87% Median
11 31% 40%  
12 9% 9%  
13 0.6% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.9%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 34% 97%  
8 11% 63% Last Result
9 16% 52% Median
10 23% 36%  
11 12% 14%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.5% 100%  
3 23% 98.5% Last Result
4 0% 75%  
5 0% 75%  
6 0% 75%  
7 26% 75% Median
8 12% 49%  
9 35% 37%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 37% 99.9%  
2 55% 63% Median
3 7% 8% Last Result
4 0% 1.0%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0.1% 1.0%  
7 0.9% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Konservativt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Norgesdemokratene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pensjonistpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 96 94 99.8% 89–94 89–94 87–95 87–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 88 67% 84–93 84–95 84–95 82–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt 97 86 59% 82–91 82–93 82–93 80–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 83 37% 80–90 80–92 80–92 79–92
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 71 83 41% 78–87 76–87 76–87 75–89
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 68 81 33% 76–85 74–85 74–85 73–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 77 1.4% 74–83 74–84 74–84 72–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 75 0.2% 75–80 75–80 74–82 69–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 76 0.2% 72–81 72–82 72–82 70–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 72 0% 66–77 66–80 66–80 66–82
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 65 76 0% 69–78 66–78 66–78 65–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 70 0% 65–76 65–78 65–78 65–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 62 0% 61–68 61–70 61–70 58–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 63 0% 63–67 63–68 61–69 58–71
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 57 68 0% 61–69 58–69 58–69 58–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 47 43 0% 39–44 39–44 37–47 34–48
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 39 26 0% 25–31 25–31 23–31 17–33

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 2% 99.5%  
88 0.7% 97%  
89 8% 97%  
90 3% 89%  
91 9% 86%  
92 2% 77%  
93 12% 75%  
94 59% 62%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.1% 2% Last Result
97 0.3% 1.4% Median
98 0.4% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.5%  
101 0% 0.4%  
102 0.3% 0.4%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.7%  
81 0.1% 99.6%  
82 0.2% 99.5%  
83 0.2% 99.4%  
84 32% 99.2%  
85 1.3% 67% Majority
86 7% 66%  
87 0.4% 59%  
88 36% 59% Median
89 1.3% 23%  
90 8% 22%  
91 2% 14%  
92 2% 12%  
93 1.5% 11%  
94 0.6% 9%  
95 8% 9%  
96 0.6% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1% Last Result
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.9%  
79 0% 99.6%  
80 0.1% 99.5%  
81 0.8% 99.4%  
82 32% 98.6%  
83 6% 67%  
84 2% 61%  
85 1.4% 59% Majority
86 11% 58% Median
87 23% 46%  
88 2% 23%  
89 8% 20%  
90 1.0% 13%  
91 2% 12%  
92 1.1% 10%  
93 8% 9%  
94 0.5% 0.6%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1% Last Result
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.6%  
79 0.1% 99.5%  
80 22% 99.4%  
81 0.8% 78%  
82 0.2% 77%  
83 33% 77%  
84 7% 43%  
85 17% 37% Median, Majority
86 1.3% 19%  
87 2% 18%  
88 3% 16%  
89 2% 13%  
90 1.0% 11%  
91 0.6% 10%  
92 9% 9%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.9%  
76 8% 99.4%  
77 1.1% 91%  
78 2% 90%  
79 1.0% 88%  
80 8% 87%  
81 2% 80%  
82 23% 77%  
83 11% 54%  
84 1.4% 42%  
85 2% 41% Majority
86 6% 39%  
87 32% 33% Median
88 0.8% 1.4%  
89 0.1% 0.6%  
90 0% 0.5%  
91 0.4% 0.4%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9% Last Result
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.8%  
74 8% 99.3%  
75 0.6% 91%  
76 1.5% 91%  
77 2% 89%  
78 2% 88%  
79 8% 86%  
80 1.3% 78%  
81 36% 77%  
82 0.4% 41%  
83 7% 41%  
84 1.3% 34%  
85 32% 33% Median, Majority
86 0.2% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.5%  
89 0% 0.4%  
90 0.3% 0.3%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 0.4% 99.4%  
74 32% 99.1%  
75 0.9% 67%  
76 2% 66%  
77 27% 64%  
78 19% 38% Median
79 3% 19%  
80 3% 16%  
81 0.8% 13%  
82 2% 12%  
83 1.1% 10%  
84 8% 9%  
85 0.5% 1.4% Majority
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1% Last Result
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.4% 100%  
68 0% 99.6%  
69 0.1% 99.6%  
70 0.2% 99.5%  
71 0.4% 99.3%  
72 0.3% 98.9% Last Result
73 0.1% 98.6%  
74 2% 98%  
75 59% 96%  
76 12% 38% Median
77 2% 25%  
78 9% 23%  
79 3% 14%  
80 8% 11%  
81 0.7% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.4%  
72 33% 99.2%  
73 1.3% 67%  
74 6% 65%  
75 1.5% 59%  
76 32% 58% Median
77 9% 26%  
78 2% 17%  
79 2% 15%  
80 0.4% 12%  
81 2% 12%  
82 8% 10%  
83 0.3% 1.2%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 21% 99.7%  
67 0.4% 79%  
68 1.3% 79%  
69 1.5% 77%  
70 6% 76%  
71 6% 70%  
72 33% 64%  
73 13% 31% Median
74 2% 18%  
75 3% 17%  
76 2% 14%  
77 2% 11%  
78 0.8% 9%  
79 0.2% 9%  
80 7% 8%  
81 0.3% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
66 7% 99.4%  
67 0.5% 92%  
68 0.4% 92%  
69 2% 91%  
70 2% 90%  
71 1.1% 88%  
72 9% 86%  
73 4% 78%  
74 12% 74%  
75 0.5% 62%  
76 38% 62%  
77 2% 24%  
78 21% 22% Median
79 0.2% 0.9%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 21% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 79%  
67 1.4% 79%  
68 7% 77%  
69 6% 70%  
70 33% 64%  
71 11% 31% Median
72 3% 20%  
73 0.7% 16%  
74 4% 15%  
75 0.7% 11%  
76 2% 11%  
77 0.4% 9%  
78 7% 8%  
79 0.1% 0.8% Last Result
80 0.6% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.3%  
60 0.2% 98.8%  
61 39% 98.6%  
62 27% 59%  
63 1.4% 33%  
64 12% 32% Median
65 4% 19%  
66 3% 15%  
67 2% 13%  
68 0.8% 10%  
69 0.4% 10%  
70 8% 9%  
71 0.6% 1.4%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.8%  
59 0.9% 99.2%  
60 0.5% 98%  
61 0.8% 98% Last Result
62 0.3% 97%  
63 59% 97%  
64 13% 37% Median
65 7% 25%  
66 2% 18%  
67 9% 16%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 5%  
70 0.4% 2%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.9% Last Result
58 7% 99.8%  
59 0.2% 92%  
60 0.5% 92%  
61 3% 92%  
62 2% 89%  
63 20% 87%  
64 2% 67%  
65 1.0% 65%  
66 1.3% 64%  
67 7% 63%  
68 22% 57%  
69 33% 34% Median
70 1.1% 1.5%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 0.2% 99.3%  
36 0.9% 99.1%  
37 0.7% 98%  
38 1.2% 97%  
39 13% 96%  
40 3% 83%  
41 20% 80%  
42 0.8% 60%  
43 21% 59%  
44 34% 38% Median
45 0.2% 4%  
46 0.6% 4%  
47 2% 3% Last Result
48 0.6% 1.0%  
49 0.1% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.3% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.6% 100%  
18 0% 99.4%  
19 0% 99.4%  
20 0% 99.4%  
21 0.1% 99.4%  
22 1.2% 99.3%  
23 0.6% 98%  
24 2% 97%  
25 33% 96%  
26 22% 62%  
27 8% 40%  
28 6% 32% Median
29 2% 26%  
30 13% 23%  
31 8% 10%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations