Opinion Poll by Norstat for NRK, 7 July–19 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 26.2% 27.6% 27.1–28.1% 27.0–28.2% 26.9–28.3% 26.7–28.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 11.6% 21.2% 20.8–21.6% 20.7–21.7% 20.5–21.9% 20.3–22.1%
Høyre 20.4% 14.6% 14.2–15.0% 14.1–15.1% 14.0–15.2% 13.9–15.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 7.6% 6.8% 6.5–7.1% 6.5–7.1% 6.4–7.2% 6.3–7.3%
Rødt 4.7% 6.4% 6.1–6.7% 6.1–6.7% 6.0–6.8% 5.9–6.9%
Senterpartiet 13.5% 5.6% 5.4–5.9% 5.3–5.9% 5.2–6.0% 5.1–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 3.8% 4.7% 4.5–4.9% 4.4–5.0% 4.4–5.0% 4.3–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.9% 4.6% 4.4–4.8% 4.3–4.9% 4.3–5.0% 4.2–5.1%
Venstre 4.6% 4.4% 4.2–4.6% 4.1–4.7% 4.1–4.7% 4.0–4.8%
Norgesdemokratene 1.1% 1.0% 0.9–1.1% 0.9–1.1% 0.9–1.2% 0.8–1.2%
Konservativt 0.4% 0.7% 0.6–0.8% 0.6–0.8% 0.6–0.9% 0.5–0.9%
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0.3% 0.6% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.7% 0.4–0.8%
Pensjonistpartiet 0.6% 0.4% 0.3–0.5% 0.3–0.5% 0.3–0.5% 0.3–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 48 54 53–54 52–55 52–55 51–56
Fremskrittspartiet 21 42 41–43 40–43 40–43 39–43
Høyre 36 24 23–27 23–28 23–28 23–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 13 10 10–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Rødt 8 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Senterpartiet 28 9 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 3 7 7 7–8 6–8 6–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Venstre 8 7 6–7 6–7 3–7 3–7
Norgesdemokratene 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konservativt 0 0 0 0 0 0
Industri- og Næringspartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensjonistpartiet 0 0 0 0 0 0

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100% Last Result
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.6% 100%  
52 6% 99.4%  
53 27% 93%  
54 58% 66% Median
55 8% 9%  
56 0.8% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 1.0% 99.9%  
40 8% 98.9%  
41 11% 91%  
42 42% 80% Median
43 38% 38%  
44 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 38% 99.7%  
24 14% 62% Median
25 7% 48%  
26 10% 41%  
27 25% 31%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 9% 100%  
10 78% 91% Median
11 9% 13%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0% 0% Last Result

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100% Last Result
9 74% 99.4% Median
10 24% 25%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 42% 98%  
9 55% 56% Median
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 4% 100%  
7 89% 96% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 18% 100%  
7 77% 82% Median
8 5% 5%  
9 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 21% 95%  
7 74% 74% Median
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Norgesdemokratene

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Norgesdemokratene page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konservativt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konservativt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Industri- og Næringspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Industri- og Næringspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Pensjonistpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pensjonistpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 100 89 100% 86–90 86–91 86–92 85–92
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 96 89 100% 88–91 86–91 86–91 86–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 95 87 80% 84–87 84–88 84–90 83–90
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 71 87 99.6% 86–89 85–89 85–89 85–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet 97 82 0.4% 80–83 80–84 80–84 78–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 72 80 0% 78–81 78–83 78–83 77–83
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 68 80 0% 79–83 78–83 77–83 77–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 92 80 0% 77–80 77–81 77–82 76–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 82 77 0% 74–77 74–78 74–78 74–78
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 65 73 0% 72–76 71–76 69–76 69–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet 89 73 0% 71–73 71–74 70–74 69–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 79 70 0% 68–70 68–70 67–70 67–71
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 57 66 0% 66–69 65–69 65–69 64–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 61 64 0% 63–65 62–65 62–65 61–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 76 62 0% 61–63 61–63 60–63 60–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 47 38 0% 37–41 37–41 35–41 35–42
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 39 22 0% 21–23 20–23 20–23 19–24

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.8% 100% Majority
86 14% 99.2%  
87 10% 85%  
88 17% 76%  
89 47% 59% Median
90 4% 12%  
91 3% 8%  
92 5% 5%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.3% 100% Majority
86 6% 99.7%  
87 4% 94%  
88 11% 90%  
89 52% 79% Median
90 9% 27%  
91 17% 18%  
92 1.4% 1.4%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 1.0% 100%  
84 19% 98.9%  
85 8% 80% Majority
86 20% 72%  
87 44% 53% Median
88 4% 9%  
89 0.3% 5%  
90 4% 4%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100% Last Result
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.4% 100%  
85 8% 99.6% Majority
86 3% 91%  
87 49% 88% Median
88 18% 40%  
89 20% 22%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.6% 0.6%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.6% 100%  
79 2% 99.4%  
80 20% 98%  
81 18% 78%  
82 49% 60% Median
83 3% 12%  
84 8% 9%  
85 0.4% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 1.4% 100%  
78 17% 98.6%  
79 9% 82%  
80 52% 73% Median
81 11% 21%  
82 4% 10%  
83 6% 6%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 100%  
77 5% 99.8%  
78 3% 95%  
79 4% 92%  
80 47% 88% Median
81 17% 41%  
82 10% 24%  
83 14% 15%  
84 0.8% 0.8%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.9% 100%  
77 17% 99.1%  
78 10% 82%  
79 22% 73%  
80 42% 51% Median
81 4% 9%  
82 5% 5%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 17% 99.7%  
75 10% 82%  
76 20% 73%  
77 47% 53% Median
78 5% 5%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100% Last Result
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 4% 100%  
70 0.3% 96%  
71 3% 95%  
72 3% 92%  
73 49% 88% Median
74 15% 40%  
75 8% 25%  
76 16% 17%  
77 0.9% 0.9%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.6% 100%  
70 3% 99.4%  
71 22% 96%  
72 23% 74%  
73 42% 51% Median
74 9% 9%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 3% 99.8%  
68 24% 97%  
69 18% 73%  
70 54% 55% Median
71 0.8% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 1.3% 99.8%  
65 4% 98.6%  
66 54% 95% Median
67 5% 41%  
68 14% 36%  
69 20% 22%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 1.4% 100% Last Result
62 5% 98.6%  
63 23% 93%  
64 56% 70% Median
65 11% 13%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 3% 100%  
61 22% 97%  
62 27% 75%  
63 48% 49% Median
64 0.9% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 5% 100%  
36 0.2% 95%  
37 40% 95%  
38 10% 56% Median
39 11% 46%  
40 14% 34%  
41 18% 21%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 8% 99.3%  
21 14% 92%  
22 33% 78%  
23 43% 45% Median
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations