Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 8–9 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.7% 30.8–34.6% 30.3–35.2% 29.9–35.7% 29.0–36.6%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Nowa Nadzieja (NI) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Ruch Narodowy (ID) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Polska Jest Jedna (*) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (ID) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Lewica Razem (NI) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 20–21 18–21 17–21 17–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 15 15–17 15–17 14–18 13–18
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–4 2–5 2–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Nowa Nadzieja (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Ruch Narodowy (ID) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Polska Jest Jedna (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (ID) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Lewica Razem (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 3% 100%  
18 3% 97%  
19 4% 95%  
20 62% 90% Median
21 27% 29%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 1.4% 98%  
15 56% 96% Median
16 18% 40%  
17 18% 22%  
18 5% 5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 40% 93%  
4 41% 53% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 26% 100%  
3 51% 74% Median
4 16% 23%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 22% 99.9%  
3 73% 77% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 0% 52%  
2 11% 52% Median
3 41% 41%  
4 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 78% 99.7% Median
3 22% 22%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 57% 100% Median
2 39% 43%  
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska Jest Jedna (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska Jest Jedna (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (ID)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (ID) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 93% 95% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 88% 90% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 77% 77% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ruch Narodowy (ID) – Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (ID) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Ruch Narodowy (ID) – Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (ID)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 60% 99.5% Median
3 34% 39%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations