Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 17 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% 33.5% 31.7–35.4% 31.2–35.9% 30.8–36.4% 30.0–37.3%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0.0% 28.6% 26.9–30.4% 26.4–30.9% 26.0–31.4% 25.2–32.3%
Vox (PfE) 0.0% 17.4% 16.0–18.9% 15.6–19.3% 15.2–19.7% 14.6–20.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 26 24–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 22 21–23 20–24 20–24 19–25
Vox (PfE) 0 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–15

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 9% 98.8%  
25 27% 90%  
26 36% 62% Median
27 21% 26%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.6% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.6% 100%  
20 6% 99.4%  
21 25% 93%  
22 38% 68% Median
23 24% 31%  
24 6% 7%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 20% 97%  
13 43% 78% Median
14 28% 35%  
15 6% 7%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Popular (EPP) 0 26 0% 24–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D) 0 22 0% 21–23 20–24 20–24 19–25
Vox (PfE) 0 13 0% 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–15

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 9% 98.8%  
25 27% 90%  
26 36% 62% Median
27 21% 26%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.6% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.6% 100%  
20 6% 99.4%  
21 25% 93%  
22 38% 68% Median
23 24% 31%  
24 6% 7%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0% 0%  

Vox (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 20% 97%  
13 43% 78% Median
14 28% 35%  
15 6% 7%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations