Vox (PfE)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 11.0% | 9.5–12.9% | 9.1–13.6% | 8.8–14.1% | 8.2–15.1% |
| 22 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
10.8% | 9.3–12.7% | 8.8–13.2% | 8.5–13.7% | 7.8–14.6% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
10.6% | 9.4–11.9% | 9.1–12.3% | 8.8–12.6% | 8.3–13.3% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
11.2% | 10.4–12.1% | 10.2–12.4% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.6–13.0% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
11.2% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.7–13.0% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.8–14.0% |
| 8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
11.4% | 10.2–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.6–13.5% | 9.0–14.2% |
| 20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
9.5% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.4–10.7% | 8.2–10.9% | 7.9–11.3% |
| 25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
10.5% | 9.7–11.4% | 9.4–11.7% | 9.2–11.9% | 8.8–12.4% |
| 23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
13.0% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.3% | 10.5–16.0% |
| 16–20 September 2024 | InvyMark laSexta |
10.9% | 9.8–12.2% | 9.5–12.5% | 9.3–12.8% | 8.8–13.4% |
| 18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| 1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.2% |
| 3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.5–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
10.4% | 9.3–11.6% | 9.0–12.0% | 8.7–12.3% | 8.2–12.9% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 13.1% | 12.4–13.8% | 12.3–14.0% | 12.1–14.2% | 11.8–14.5% |
| 26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
11.1% | 10.3–12.0% | 10.1–12.2% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.5–12.9% |
| 22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
9.6% | 8.9–10.4% | 8.7–10.7% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.1–11.3% |
| 20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
9.6% | 8.3–11.2% | 7.9–11.7% | 7.6–12.1% | 7.0–13.0% |
| 19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
10.6% | 9.8–11.5% | 9.5–11.8% | 9.3–12.0% | 8.9–12.5% |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
10.4% | 9.0–12.1% | 8.6–12.6% | 8.3–13.0% | 7.7–13.9% |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
9.9% | 9.1–10.8% | 8.9–11.0% | 8.7–11.2% | 8.3–11.7% |
| 22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
10.8% | 9.3–12.5% | 8.9–13.0% | 8.6–13.4% | 8.0–14.3% |
| 18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
11.2% | 10.1–12.4% | 9.8–12.8% | 9.5–13.1% | 9.0–13.7% |
| 12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
9.0% | 8.3–9.8% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% |
| 1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
10.5% | 9.1–12.2% | 8.7–12.7% | 8.4–13.1% | 7.7–14.0% |
| 1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.5–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| 1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 12.2% | 11.6–12.9% | 11.4–13.1% | 11.2–13.3% | 10.9–13.6% |
| 25–28 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
10.9% | 10.0–11.8% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.6–12.3% | 9.2–12.8% |
| 21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
10.4% | 9.6–11.3% | 9.3–11.6% | 9.1–11.8% | 8.7–12.3% |
| 11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
10.3% | 8.9–12.0% | 8.5–12.4% | 8.2–12.8% | 7.5–13.7% |
| 10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
11.0% | 9.0–13.6% | 8.4–14.4% | 7.9–15.1% | 7.1–16.4% |
| 1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vox (PfE).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 10% | 98.6% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 24% | 88% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 31% | 64% | Median |
| 11.5–12.5% | 19% | 33% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 9% | 14% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 22 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
6 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| 16–20 September 2024 | InvyMark laSexta |
8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| 26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
6 | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| 25–28 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
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| 21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–8 |
| 21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
7 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| 1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vox (PfE).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 16% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 39% | 84% | Median |
| 8 | 33% | 45% | |
| 9 | 10% | 12% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |