Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 27.7% | 25.5–31.7% | 24.9–34.6% | 24.4–35.2% | 23.5–36.0% |
| 6–10 October 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
26.9% | 25.1–28.9% | 24.5–29.4% | 24.1–29.9% | 23.2–30.8% |
| 3–9 October 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
27.8% | 26.0–29.7% | 25.5–30.2% | 25.1–30.7% | 24.3–31.6% |
| 1–7 October 2025 | CIS | 34.8% | 33.8–35.8% | 33.6–36.0% | 33.3–36.3% | 32.9–36.8% |
| 1–4 October 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
26.6% | 24.9–28.5% | 24.4–29.0% | 23.9–29.4% | 23.1–30.3% |
| 17 September–1 October 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
27.2% | 26.0–28.4% | 25.7–28.8% | 25.4–29.1% | 24.9–29.6% |
| 25–30 September 2025 | Opina 360 Antena 3 |
30.4% | 28.8–32.2% | 28.3–32.7% | 27.9–33.1% | 27.1–33.9% |
| 26–28 September 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
29.4% | 28.1–30.7% | 27.8–31.1% | 27.4–31.4% | 26.8–32.1% |
| 15–19 September 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
28.3% | 26.6–30.1% | 26.1–30.6% | 25.7–31.0% | 24.9–31.9% |
| 10–15 September 2025 | DYM Henneo |
26.9% | 25.1–28.7% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.2–29.7% | 23.4–30.6% |
| 8–12 September 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
26.1% | 24.4–27.8% | 24.0–28.3% | 23.6–28.8% | 22.8–29.6% |
| 10–11 September 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
27.0% | 25.2–28.8% | 24.8–29.3% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| 5–11 September 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
26.9% | 25.1–28.7% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.2–29.7% | 23.4–30.6% |
| 3–9 September 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
25.8% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.6–28.2% | 23.2–28.6% | 22.4–29.5% |
| 1–6 September 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
25.8% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.6–28.2% | 23.2–28.6% | 22.4–29.5% |
| 1–6 September 2025 | CIS | 32.7% | 31.8–33.7% | 31.5–33.9% | 31.3–34.2% | 30.8–34.6% |
| 2–5 September 2025 | Demoscopia y Servicios esRadio |
26.6% | 25.6–27.7% | 25.3–28.0% | 25.0–28.2% | 24.6–28.7% |
| 29 August–1 September 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
27.7% | 26.4–29.0% | 26.1–29.4% | 25.8–29.7% | 25.2–30.3% |
| 26–29 August 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
26.2% | 24.5–27.9% | 24.1–28.4% | 23.7–28.9% | 22.9–29.7% |
| 20–28 August 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
27.0% | 25.7–28.4% | 25.3–28.7% | 25.0–29.1% | 24.3–29.8% |
| 21–30 July 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
26.7% | 25.5–27.9% | 25.2–28.3% | 24.9–28.5% | 24.3–29.1% |
| 21–24 July 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
25.0% | 23.4–26.7% | 22.9–27.2% | 22.5–27.6% | 21.8–28.5% |
| 14–18 July 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
25.4% | 23.7–27.2% | 23.2–27.7% | 22.8–28.2% | 22.0–29.1% |
| 11–14 July 2025 | DYM Henneo |
26.1% | 24.4–27.9% | 23.9–28.5% | 23.5–28.9% | 22.7–29.8% |
| 10–14 July 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
25.6% | 24.0–27.4% | 23.5–27.9% | 23.1–28.3% | 22.4–29.2% |
| 9–10 July 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
26.0% | 24.3–27.9% | 23.8–28.4% | 23.4–28.9% | 22.6–29.8% |
| 1–7 July 2025 | CIS | 27.0% | 26.1–27.9% | 25.9–28.2% | 25.7–28.4% | 25.2–28.9% |
| 30 June–4 July 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
29.2% | 26.1–32.9% | 25.2–33.9% | 24.5–34.7% | 23.0–36.5% |
| 27–30 June 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
27.0% | 25.7–28.3% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.1–29.0% | 24.5–29.6% |
| 20–27 June 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
26.8% | 25.5–28.2% | 25.2–28.5% | 24.9–28.9% | 24.3–29.5% |
| 18–21 June 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
26.7% | 25.1–28.4% | 24.6–28.9% | 24.2–29.3% | 23.5–30.2% |
| 19–21 June 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
25.5% | 23.8–27.3% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.9–28.3% | 22.1–29.2% |
| 18–20 June 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
26.3% | 24.6–28.2% | 24.1–28.7% | 23.7–29.1% | 22.8–30.0% |
| 16–20 June 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
29.3% | 26.1–32.9% | 25.2–33.9% | 24.5–34.7% | 23.0–36.5% |
| 17 June 2025 | DYM Henneo |
26.1% | 24.4–27.9% | 23.9–28.4% | 23.5–28.9% | 22.7–29.7% |
| 9–13 June 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
30.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–12 June 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.4–29.9% | 23.6–30.8% |
| 2–7 June 2025 | CIS | 34.3% | 33.3–35.3% | 33.1–35.5% | 32.8–35.8% | 32.4–36.2% |
| 27–29 May 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
27.6% | 25.8–29.4% | 25.3–29.9% | 24.9–30.4% | 24.1–31.3% |
| 21 April–28 May 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
28.4% | 27.7–29.1% | 27.5–29.3% | 27.4–29.5% | 27.0–29.8% |
| 23–26 May 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
29.8% | 28.5–31.1% | 28.1–31.5% | 27.8–31.9% | 27.2–32.5% |
| 23–25 May 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
29.8% | 28.5–31.1% | 28.1–31.5% | 27.8–31.9% | 27.2–32.5% |
| 21–23 May 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
28.8% | 27.1–30.7% | 26.6–31.3% | 26.1–31.7% | 25.3–32.6% |
| 20–23 May 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
27.6% | 25.8–29.5% | 25.3–30.0% | 24.9–30.5% | 24.1–31.4% |
| 19–22 May 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
29.0% | 27.6–30.4% | 27.3–30.8% | 26.9–31.1% | 26.3–31.8% |
| 15–21 May 2025 | Ipsos La Vanguardia |
30.4% | 29.1–31.7% | 28.7–32.1% | 28.4–32.5% | 27.8–33.1% |
| 14–19 May 2025 | DYM Henneo |
28.7% | 26.9–30.5% | 26.4–31.0% | 26.0–31.5% | 25.2–32.4% |
| 5–8 May 2025 | CIS | 32.0% | 31.1–33.0% | 30.8–33.2% | 30.6–33.5% | 30.1–33.9% |
| 28 April–6 May 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
28.4% | 26.7–30.2% | 26.2–30.7% | 25.8–31.1% | 25.0–32.0% |
| 24–27 April 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
29.3% | 28.0–30.6% | 27.6–31.0% | 27.3–31.3% | 26.7–32.0% |
| 23–25 April 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
28.1% | 26.3–29.9% | 25.8–30.4% | 25.4–30.9% | 24.5–31.8% |
| 21–25 April 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
29.5% | 27.7–31.4% | 27.2–31.9% | 26.7–32.4% | 25.9–33.3% |
| 14–17 April 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
28.6% | 26.8–30.5% | 26.3–31.0% | 25.9–31.5% | 25.0–32.4% |
| 4–15 April 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
27.9% | 26.6–29.3% | 26.2–29.7% | 25.9–30.0% | 25.3–30.7% |
| 9–15 April 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
27.8% | 26.0–29.7% | 25.5–30.2% | 25.1–30.7% | 24.3–31.6% |
| 1–8 April 2025 | CIS | 32.6% | 31.7–33.6% | 31.4–33.8% | 31.2–34.1% | 30.7–34.5% |
| 28–31 March 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
29.5% | 28.2–30.8% | 27.8–31.2% | 27.5–31.6% | 26.9–32.2% |
| 27–28 March 2025 | Data10 OKDiario |
28.6% | 27.1–30.1% | 26.7–30.6% | 26.4–30.9% | 25.7–31.7% |
| 19–21 March 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
30.2% | 28.4–32.1% | 27.9–32.6% | 27.4–33.1% | 26.6–34.0% |
| 19–21 March 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
28.3% | 27.0–29.7% | 26.7–30.1% | 26.3–30.4% | 25.7–31.0% |
| 14–21 March 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
28.0% | 26.3–29.8% | 25.8–30.3% | 25.4–30.7% | 24.6–31.6% |
| 12–16 March 2025 | DYM Henneo |
29.1% | 27.3–31.0% | 26.8–31.5% | 26.3–32.0% | 25.5–32.9% |
| 24 February–7 March 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
27.8% | 26.7–28.9% | 26.4–29.2% | 26.2–29.5% | 25.7–30.0% |
| 3–7 March 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
28.5% | 27.1–30.1% | 26.7–30.5% | 26.3–30.9% | 25.6–31.6% |
| 28 February–7 March 2025 | CIS | 35.9% | 34.9–36.9% | 34.6–37.1% | 34.4–37.4% | 34.0–37.9% |
| 3–6 March 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| 24–28 February 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
27.5% | 25.7–29.4% | 25.2–29.9% | 24.8–30.4% | 24.0–31.3% |
| 21–24 February 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
29.6% | 28.3–30.9% | 28.0–31.3% | 27.6–31.6% | 27.0–32.3% |
| 19–21 February 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
29.9% | 28.1–31.8% | 27.6–32.3% | 27.1–32.8% | 26.3–33.7% |
| 12–17 February 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
27.9% | 26.2–29.7% | 25.7–30.2% | 25.3–30.6% | 24.5–31.5% |
| 12–14 February 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
27.8% | 26.5–29.2% | 26.1–29.6% | 25.8–29.9% | 25.2–30.6% |
| 4–7 February 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
27.9% | 26.1–29.8% | 25.6–30.3% | 25.2–30.8% | 24.4–31.7% |
| 31 January–6 February 2025 | CIS | 33.4% | 32.4–34.4% | 32.2–34.6% | 32.0–34.9% | 31.5–35.3% |
| 24–31 January 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
27.6% | 26.4–28.8% | 26.1–29.2% | 25.8–29.5% | 25.3–30.1% |
| 28–31 January 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
27.8% | 26.0–29.7% | 25.5–30.2% | 25.1–30.7% | 24.3–31.6% |
| 24–27 January 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
28.4% | 27.1–29.7% | 26.8–30.1% | 26.5–30.4% | 25.9–31.1% |
| 22–24 January 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
28.9% | 27.1–30.8% | 26.6–31.3% | 26.1–31.8% | 25.3–32.7% |
| 16–23 January 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
27.3% | 25.6–29.2% | 25.1–29.7% | 24.7–30.1% | 23.9–31.0% |
| 16–20 January 2025 | DYM Henneo |
28.8% | 27.0–30.7% | 26.5–31.2% | 26.1–31.7% | 25.3–32.6% |
| 7–11 January 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
28.1% | 26.4–29.9% | 25.9–30.4% | 25.5–30.8% | 24.7–31.7% |
| 31 December 2024–3 January 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
28.3% | 26.5–30.2% | 26.0–30.7% | 25.6–31.2% | 24.8–32.1% |
| 26–30 December 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
28.5% | 26.8–30.4% | 26.3–31.0% | 25.8–31.4% | 25.0–32.3% |
| 26–30 December 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
28.3% | 27.3–29.4% | 27.0–29.7% | 26.7–30.0% | 26.2–30.5% |
| 20–27 December 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
28.0% | 26.2–29.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.5–31.8% |
| 13–26 December 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
27.1% | 26.0–28.3% | 25.6–28.6% | 25.4–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% |
| 20–26 December 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
29.5% | 28.2–30.8% | 27.8–31.2% | 27.5–31.6% | 26.9–32.2% |
| 10–12 December 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
28.1% | 26.3–30.0% | 25.8–30.5% | 25.4–31.0% | 24.6–31.9% |
| 5–11 December 2024 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
28.2% | 26.5–29.9% | 26.0–30.5% | 25.6–30.9% | 24.8–31.8% |
| 25 November–4 December 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
27.4% | 26.2–28.7% | 25.8–29.1% | 25.5–29.4% | 24.9–30.0% |
| 2–4 December 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
28.3% | 26.5–30.1% | 26.0–30.7% | 25.6–31.2% | 24.7–32.1% |
| 25–29 November 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
28.4% | 26.6–30.3% | 26.1–30.8% | 25.7–31.3% | 24.8–32.2% |
| 25–27 November 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
29.9% | 28.6–31.2% | 28.2–31.6% | 27.9–31.9% | 27.3–32.6% |
| 22–24 November 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
26.7% | 25.1–28.4% | 24.7–28.9% | 24.3–29.3% | 23.6–30.1% |
| 20–22 November 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
28.3% | 26.7–30.0% | 26.3–30.4% | 25.9–30.8% | 25.2–31.6% |
| 18–22 November 2024 | Ipsos La Vanguardia |
28.4% | 26.8–30.2% | 26.3–30.7% | 25.9–31.1% | 25.1–31.9% |
| 7–15 November 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
28.7% | 27.0–30.5% | 26.5–31.0% | 26.1–31.5% | 25.3–32.4% |
| 11–14 November 2024 | GAD3 Mediaset |
27.7% | 26.0–29.5% | 25.5–30.1% | 25.1–30.5% | 24.2–31.4% |
| 8–11 November 2024 | DYM Henneo |
28.2% | 26.4–30.0% | 25.9–30.6% | 25.5–31.0% | 24.7–31.9% |
| 5–8 November 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
28.5% | 26.7–30.4% | 26.2–30.9% | 25.8–31.4% | 25.0–32.3% |
| 24–31 October 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
28.2% | 26.8–29.6% | 26.5–30.0% | 26.2–30.3% | 25.5–31.0% |
| 21–24 October 2024 | GAD3 ABC |
28.2% | 26.4–30.1% | 25.9–30.6% | 25.5–31.0% | 24.7–31.9% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
29.2% | 27.4–31.1% | 26.9–31.6% | 26.5–32.1% | 25.7–33.0% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
28.3% | 27.1–29.6% | 26.8–29.9% | 26.5–30.2% | 25.9–30.8% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
28.8% | 27.0–30.7% | 26.5–31.2% | 26.1–31.7% | 25.2–32.6% |
| 8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
28.9% | 27.1–30.8% | 26.6–31.3% | 26.2–31.8% | 25.3–32.7% |
| 4–9 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
29.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
28.7% | 27.4–30.1% | 27.0–30.5% | 26.7–30.8% | 26.1–31.4% |
| 25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
29.7% | 28.4–31.0% | 28.0–31.4% | 27.7–31.7% | 27.1–32.4% |
| 23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
27.0% | 25.2–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.3–29.8% | 23.5–30.7% |
| 16–20 September 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
30.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
30.3% | 28.5–32.2% | 27.9–32.7% | 27.5–33.2% | 26.6–34.1% |
| 1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
30.6% | 28.8–32.5% | 28.3–33.0% | 27.9–33.5% | 27.0–34.4% |
| 3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
29.2% | 27.4–31.1% | 26.9–31.6% | 26.5–32.1% | 25.6–33.0% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
29.6% | 27.9–31.5% | 27.4–32.0% | 27.0–32.4% | 26.2–33.3% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 33.0% | 32.1–34.0% | 31.8–34.2% | 31.6–34.5% | 31.1–34.9% |
| 26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
29.1% | 27.9–30.3% | 27.6–30.7% | 27.3–31.0% | 26.7–31.6% |
| 22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
28.8% | 27.6–30.0% | 27.3–30.3% | 27.0–30.7% | 26.4–31.2% |
| 20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
28.7% | 26.5–31.0% | 25.9–31.7% | 25.4–32.3% | 24.3–33.4% |
| 19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
30.5% | 29.2–31.9% | 28.8–32.2% | 28.5–32.6% | 27.9–33.2% |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
30.5% | 28.3–32.9% | 27.6–33.6% | 27.1–34.2% | 26.0–35.4% |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
28.9% | 27.6–30.2% | 27.3–30.5% | 27.0–30.9% | 26.4–31.5% |
| 22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
30.7% | 28.5–33.2% | 27.8–33.8% | 27.3–34.4% | 26.2–35.6% |
| 18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
29.3% | 27.7–31.1% | 27.2–31.6% | 26.8–32.0% | 26.0–32.8% |
| 12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
29.9% | 28.7–31.1% | 28.4–31.4% | 28.1–31.7% | 27.6–32.3% |
| 1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
31.7% | 29.4–34.1% | 28.7–34.8% | 28.2–35.4% | 27.1–36.6% |
| 1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
29.9% | 28.1–31.8% | 27.6–32.3% | 27.1–32.8% | 26.3–33.7% |
| 1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 32.9% | 31.9–33.9% | 31.7–34.1% | 31.4–34.4% | 31.0–34.8% |
| 21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
30.0% | 28.7–31.3% | 28.3–31.7% | 28.0–32.1% | 27.4–32.7% |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
29.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
31.2% | 29.9–32.6% | 29.5–32.9% | 29.2–33.3% | 28.6–33.9% |
| 11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
29.8% | 27.5–32.1% | 26.9–32.8% | 26.4–33.4% | 25.3–34.5% |
| 10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
31.7% | 28.4–35.3% | 27.5–36.3% | 26.7–37.1% | 25.1–38.9% |
| 1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
30.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 8% | 97% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 16% | 89% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 21% | 73% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 28.5–29.5% | 13% | 35% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 8% | 22% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 4% | 14% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 2% | 10% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 3% | 8% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 19 | 18–22 | 17–25 | 17–25 | 16–26 |
| 6–10 October 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
19 | 18–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–20 |
| 3–9 October 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
19 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| 1–7 October 2025 | CIS | 25 | 24–26 | 24–26 | 24–27 | 24–27 |
| 1–4 October 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| 17 September–1 October 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 |
| 25–30 September 2025 | Opina 360 Antena 3 |
20 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 |
| 26–28 September 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| 15–19 September 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| 10–15 September 2025 | DYM Henneo |
19 | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| 8–12 September 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 15–21 |
| 10–11 September 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
19 | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 5–11 September 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
18 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| 3–9 September 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
| 1–6 September 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| 1–6 September 2025 | CIS | 23 | 22–23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 |
| 2–5 September 2025 | Demoscopia y Servicios esRadio |
18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 |
| 29 August–1 September 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
20 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| 26–29 August 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| 20–28 August 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| 21–30 July 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
18 | 18–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–20 |
| 21–24 July 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
17 | 16–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| 14–18 July 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 |
| 11–14 July 2025 | DYM Henneo |
19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 10–14 July 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
| 9–10 July 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| 1–7 July 2025 | CIS | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18–19 | 18–20 |
| 30 June–4 July 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 15–25 |
| 27–30 June 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 |
| 20–27 June 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
18 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| 18–21 June 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
17 | 17–18 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| 19–21 June 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| 18–20 June 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 16–20 June 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| 17 June 2025 | DYM Henneo |
19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 9–13 June 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
|||||
| 10–12 June 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
19 | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| 2–7 June 2025 | CIS | 24 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 23–26 | 23–26 |
| 27–29 May 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
19 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 21 April–28 May 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 19–20 | 19–20 | 19–20 | 18–20 |
| 23–26 May 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 21–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 |
| 23–25 May 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 21–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 |
| 21–23 May 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| 20–23 May 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 |
| 19–22 May 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
19 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 |
| 15–21 May 2025 | Ipsos La Vanguardia |
21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 19–22 |
| 14–19 May 2025 | DYM Henneo |
20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| 5–8 May 2025 | CIS | 23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–24 |
| 28 April–6 May 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
19 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| 24–27 April 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| 23–25 April 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| 21–25 April 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| 14–17 April 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
21 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 17–22 |
| 4–15 April 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 19 | 19 | 18–20 | 17–20 |
| 9–15 April 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
19 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| 1–8 April 2025 | CIS | 23 | 23–24 | 23–24 | 23–24 | 22–25 |
| 28–31 March 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| 27–28 March 2025 | Data10 OKDiario |
21 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 |
| 19–21 March 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
21 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 |
| 19–21 March 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 |
| 14–21 March 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
19 | 19 | 19–20 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| 12–16 March 2025 | DYM Henneo |
21 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 |
| 24 February–7 March 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
18 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 |
| 3–7 March 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
21 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 |
| 28 February–7 March 2025 | CIS | 25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–26 |
| 3–6 March 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
19 | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| 24–28 February 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| 21–24 February 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| 19–21 February 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
21 | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 |
| 12–17 February 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
20 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
| 12–14 February 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| 4–7 February 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
18 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| 31 January–6 February 2025 | CIS | 23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 24–31 January 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–21 |
| 28–31 January 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 24–27 January 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 20–22 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 |
| 22–24 January 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| 16–23 January 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
19 | 18–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| 16–20 January 2025 | DYM Henneo |
20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| 7–11 January 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
18 | 18–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| 31 December 2024–3 January 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| 26–30 December 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
20 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| 26–30 December 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
19 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 |
| 20–27 December 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
20 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| 13–26 December 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 |
| 20–26 December 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| 10–12 December 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 |
| 5–11 December 2024 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
18 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 |
| 25 November–4 December 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–21 |
| 2–4 December 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| 25–29 November 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| 25–27 November 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 21–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 |
| 22–24 November 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| 20–22 November 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
20 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 |
| 18–22 November 2024 | Ipsos La Vanguardia |
19 | 18–20 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| 7–15 November 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
19 | 19–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 17–22 |
| 11–14 November 2024 | GAD3 Mediaset |
20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| 8–11 November 2024 | DYM Henneo |
20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| 5–8 November 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
19 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| 24–31 October 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 19–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 |
| 21–24 October 2024 | GAD3 ABC |
19 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
20 | 19–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| 8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| 4–9 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
|||||
| 20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
20 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 |
| 25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| 23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| 16–20 September 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
|||||
| 18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
21 | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| 1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| 3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
20 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
20 | 19–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 24 | 23–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 |
| 26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
20 | 20 | 19–20 | 19–21 | 18–22 |
| 22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 |
| 20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
20 | 20 | 19–20 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| 19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
21 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–22 |
| 22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
21 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| 18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
20 | 20–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| 12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
20 | 20–21 | 20–21 | 19–21 | 19–23 |
| 1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| 1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
20 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 |
| 1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 22 | 22–23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–24 |
| 21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
22 | 22 | 22 | 21–22 | 19–23 |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
|||||
| 21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
22 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| 11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
19 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–23 |
| 10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
22 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 17–27 |
| 1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partido Socialista Obrero Español (S&D).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 7% | 98% | |
| 18 | 20% | 91% | |
| 19 | 34% | 71% | Median |
| 20 | 15% | 37% | |
| 21 | 10% | 22% | |
| 22 | 3% | 12% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 8% | |
| 25 | 6% | 7% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |