Partido Popular (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 32.7% | 26.3–36.1% | 20.0–36.9% | 19.5–37.5% | 18.8–38.7% |
| 6–10 October 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
34.0% | 32.0–36.1% | 31.5–36.7% | 31.0–37.2% | 30.0–38.2% |
| 3–9 October 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
29.0% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| 1–7 October 2025 | CIS | 19.8% | 19.0–20.6% | 18.8–20.9% | 18.6–21.1% | 18.2–21.5% |
| 1–4 October 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
34.4% | 32.5–36.4% | 32.0–36.9% | 31.5–37.4% | 30.6–38.4% |
| 17 September–1 October 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
33.8% | 32.6–35.1% | 32.2–35.5% | 31.9–35.8% | 31.3–36.4% |
| 25–30 September 2025 | Opina 360 Antena 3 |
27.4% | 25.8–29.1% | 25.4–29.6% | 25.0–30.0% | 24.2–30.8% |
| 26–28 September 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
30.5% | 29.2–31.9% | 28.8–32.2% | 28.5–32.6% | 27.9–33.2% |
| 15–19 September 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
36.1% | 34.3–38.0% | 33.7–38.5% | 33.3–39.0% | 32.4–39.9% |
| 10–15 September 2025 | DYM Henneo |
35.2% | 33.3–37.2% | 32.8–37.8% | 32.4–38.2% | 31.5–39.2% |
| 8–12 September 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
34.9% | 33.1–36.8% | 32.6–37.3% | 32.1–37.8% | 31.3–38.7% |
| 10–11 September 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
31.6% | 29.8–33.6% | 29.3–34.1% | 28.9–34.6% | 28.0–35.5% |
| 5–11 September 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
32.0% | 30.1–33.9% | 29.6–34.4% | 29.1–34.9% | 28.3–35.9% |
| 3–9 September 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
34.4% | 32.5–36.4% | 32.0–36.9% | 31.5–37.4% | 30.6–38.4% |
| 1–6 September 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
35.2% | 33.3–37.2% | 32.8–37.7% | 32.3–38.2% | 31.4–39.2% |
| 1–6 September 2025 | CIS | 23.7% | 22.9–24.6% | 22.6–24.8% | 22.4–25.0% | 22.0–25.5% |
| 2–5 September 2025 | Demoscopia y Servicios esRadio |
35.1% | 34.0–36.2% | 33.7–36.5% | 33.4–36.8% | 32.9–37.4% |
| 29 August–1 September 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
30.7% | 29.4–32.1% | 29.0–32.4% | 28.7–32.8% | 28.1–33.4% |
| 26–29 August 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
34.5% | 32.7–36.4% | 32.2–36.9% | 31.8–37.4% | 30.9–38.3% |
| 20–28 August 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
34.4% | 33.0–35.8% | 32.6–36.3% | 32.2–36.6% | 31.5–37.3% |
| 21–30 July 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
34.9% | 33.6–36.2% | 33.3–36.6% | 33.0–36.9% | 32.3–37.5% |
| 21–24 July 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
35.5% | 33.7–37.4% | 33.2–38.0% | 32.8–38.4% | 31.9–39.3% |
| 14–18 July 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
35.0% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| 11–14 July 2025 | DYM Henneo |
36.1% | 34.2–38.1% | 33.6–38.7% | 33.2–39.1% | 32.3–40.1% |
| 10–14 July 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
35.5% | 33.7–37.4% | 33.2–38.0% | 32.8–38.4% | 31.9–39.3% |
| 9–10 July 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
34.6% | 32.7–36.6% | 32.2–37.2% | 31.7–37.6% | 30.8–38.6% |
| 1–7 July 2025 | CIS | 26.5% | 25.6–27.4% | 25.4–27.7% | 25.2–27.9% | 24.7–28.3% |
| 30 June–4 July 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
36.2% | 32.9–40.0% | 31.9–41.0% | 31.1–41.9% | 29.5–43.7% |
| 27–30 June 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
33.3% | 32.0–34.7% | 31.6–35.1% | 31.3–35.4% | 30.6–36.1% |
| 20–27 June 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
34.7% | 33.3–36.1% | 32.9–36.5% | 32.6–36.9% | 31.9–37.5% |
| 18–21 June 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
35.1% | 33.3–37.0% | 32.8–37.5% | 32.4–37.9% | 31.6–38.8% |
| 19–21 June 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
35.7% | 33.8–37.7% | 33.2–38.2% | 32.8–38.7% | 31.9–39.7% |
| 18–20 June 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
34.0% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.1–37.0% | 30.2–38.0% |
| 16–20 June 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
36.6% | 33.2–40.3% | 32.2–41.4% | 31.4–42.3% | 29.8–44.0% |
| 17 June 2025 | DYM Henneo |
36.0% | 34.1–37.9% | 33.6–38.5% | 33.1–39.0% | 32.2–39.9% |
| 9–13 June 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
35.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–12 June 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
30.5% | 28.7–32.4% | 28.2–33.0% | 27.8–33.5% | 26.9–34.4% |
| 2–7 June 2025 | CIS | 27.3% | 26.4–28.2% | 26.2–28.5% | 25.9–28.7% | 25.5–29.2% |
| 27–29 May 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
33.8% | 32.0–35.8% | 31.4–36.3% | 31.0–36.8% | 30.1–37.7% |
| 21 April–28 May 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
34.1% | 33.4–34.8% | 33.2–35.0% | 33.0–35.2% | 32.7–35.5% |
| 23–26 May 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
32.8% | 31.5–34.2% | 31.1–34.6% | 30.8–34.9% | 30.1–35.6% |
| 23–25 May 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
32.8% | 31.5–34.2% | 31.1–34.6% | 30.8–34.9% | 30.1–35.6% |
| 21–23 May 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
33.1% | 31.3–35.1% | 30.7–35.6% | 30.3–36.1% | 29.4–37.1% |
| 20–23 May 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
34.5% | 32.6–36.5% | 32.1–37.0% | 31.6–37.5% | 30.7–38.5% |
| 19–22 May 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
34.9% | 33.5–36.3% | 33.1–36.7% | 32.7–37.1% | 32.0–37.8% |
| 15–21 May 2025 | Ipsos La Vanguardia |
34.4% | 33.0–35.8% | 32.7–36.2% | 32.3–36.5% | 31.7–37.2% |
| 14–19 May 2025 | DYM Henneo |
35.9% | 34.0–37.8% | 33.5–38.3% | 33.0–38.8% | 32.1–39.7% |
| 5–8 May 2025 | CIS | 29.3% | 28.4–30.2% | 28.1–30.5% | 27.9–30.7% | 27.5–31.2% |
| 28 April–6 May 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
34.5% | 32.7–36.4% | 32.2–36.9% | 31.8–37.4% | 30.9–38.3% |
| 24–27 April 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
33.9% | 32.6–35.3% | 32.2–35.7% | 31.9–36.0% | 31.2–36.7% |
| 23–25 April 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
33.5% | 31.6–35.4% | 31.1–36.0% | 30.6–36.4% | 29.8–37.4% |
| 21–25 April 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
34.8% | 32.9–36.8% | 32.4–37.3% | 31.9–37.8% | 31.0–38.8% |
| 14–17 April 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
34.3% | 32.4–36.3% | 31.9–36.8% | 31.4–37.3% | 30.5–38.3% |
| 4–15 April 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
33.9% | 32.5–35.4% | 32.1–35.8% | 31.8–36.1% | 31.1–36.8% |
| 9–15 April 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
34.2% | 32.3–36.2% | 31.8–36.7% | 31.3–37.2% | 30.4–38.1% |
| 1–8 April 2025 | CIS | 26.1% | 25.2–27.0% | 25.0–27.3% | 24.8–27.5% | 24.3–27.9% |
| 28–31 March 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
32.6% | 31.3–34.0% | 30.9–34.4% | 30.6–34.7% | 29.9–35.4% |
| 27–28 March 2025 | Data10 OKDiario |
35.3% | 33.7–36.9% | 33.3–37.3% | 32.9–37.7% | 32.1–38.5% |
| 19–21 March 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
33.1% | 31.2–35.1% | 30.7–35.6% | 30.2–36.1% | 29.4–37.0% |
| 19–21 March 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
34.0% | 32.6–35.4% | 32.2–35.8% | 31.9–36.2% | 31.2–36.9% |
| 14–21 March 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
34.4% | 32.6–36.2% | 32.1–36.8% | 31.6–37.2% | 30.8–38.1% |
| 12–16 March 2025 | DYM Henneo |
35.4% | 33.5–37.3% | 32.9–37.9% | 32.4–38.4% | 31.6–39.3% |
| 24 February–7 March 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
33.8% | 32.7–34.9% | 32.3–35.3% | 32.1–35.6% | 31.5–36.1% |
| 3–7 March 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
34.1% | 32.6–35.7% | 32.1–36.2% | 31.8–36.6% | 31.0–37.4% |
| 28 February–7 March 2025 | CIS | 29.2% | 28.3–30.1% | 28.0–30.4% | 27.8–30.6% | 27.4–31.1% |
| 3–6 March 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
32.1% | 30.2–34.0% | 29.7–34.6% | 29.3–35.1% | 28.4–36.0% |
| 24–28 February 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
34.3% | 32.4–36.3% | 31.9–36.8% | 31.4–37.3% | 30.5–38.3% |
| 21–24 February 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
32.2% | 30.9–33.6% | 30.5–34.0% | 30.2–34.3% | 29.6–34.9% |
| 19–21 February 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
33.1% | 31.2–35.0% | 30.7–35.6% | 30.2–36.0% | 29.3–37.0% |
| 12–17 February 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
34.3% | 32.5–36.2% | 32.0–36.7% | 31.5–37.1% | 30.7–38.0% |
| 12–14 February 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
33.8% | 32.4–35.2% | 32.0–35.6% | 31.6–36.0% | 31.0–36.7% |
| 4–7 February 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
34.8% | 32.9–36.8% | 32.4–37.3% | 31.9–37.8% | 31.0–38.8% |
| 31 January–6 February 2025 | CIS | 28.1% | 27.2–29.0% | 26.9–29.3% | 26.7–29.5% | 26.3–30.0% |
| 24–31 January 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
33.7% | 32.4–35.0% | 32.1–35.3% | 31.8–35.7% | 31.2–36.3% |
| 28–31 January 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
34.5% | 32.6–36.5% | 32.1–37.0% | 31.6–37.5% | 30.7–38.5% |
| 24–27 January 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
32.6% | 31.3–34.0% | 30.9–34.4% | 30.6–34.7% | 29.9–35.4% |
| 22–24 January 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
33.2% | 31.3–35.1% | 30.8–35.7% | 30.3–36.2% | 29.4–37.1% |
| 16–23 January 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
34.9% | 33.0–36.8% | 32.5–37.4% | 32.0–37.8% | 31.2–38.8% |
| 16–20 January 2025 | DYM Henneo |
34.8% | 32.9–36.8% | 32.4–37.3% | 31.9–37.8% | 31.0–38.7% |
| 7–11 January 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
34.1% | 32.3–36.0% | 31.8–36.5% | 31.3–36.9% | 30.5–37.9% |
| 31 December 2024–3 January 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
34.5% | 32.6–36.5% | 32.1–37.0% | 31.6–37.5% | 30.7–38.5% |
| 26–30 December 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
32.7% | 30.9–34.7% | 30.3–35.2% | 29.9–35.7% | 29.0–36.7% |
| 26–30 December 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
33.5% | 32.4–34.6% | 32.1–34.9% | 31.8–35.2% | 31.3–35.8% |
| 20–27 December 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
35.1% | 33.2–37.1% | 32.7–37.6% | 32.2–38.1% | 31.3–39.1% |
| 13–26 December 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
34.4% | 33.2–35.7% | 32.8–36.0% | 32.6–36.3% | 32.0–36.9% |
| 20–26 December 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
33.0% | 31.7–34.4% | 31.3–34.8% | 31.0–35.1% | 30.3–35.8% |
| 10–12 December 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
34.9% | 33.0–36.9% | 32.5–37.4% | 32.0–37.9% | 31.1–38.9% |
| 5–11 December 2024 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
32.6% | 30.8–34.4% | 30.3–34.9% | 29.9–35.4% | 29.1–36.3% |
| 25 November–4 December 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
34.8% | 33.5–36.2% | 33.1–36.6% | 32.8–36.9% | 32.1–37.6% |
| 2–4 December 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
31.1% | 29.2–33.0% | 28.7–33.5% | 28.3–34.0% | 27.4–34.9% |
| 25–29 November 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
35.5% | 33.6–37.5% | 33.1–38.0% | 32.6–38.5% | 31.7–39.5% |
| 25–27 November 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
33.3% | 32.0–34.7% | 31.6–35.1% | 31.3–35.4% | 30.6–36.1% |
| 22–24 November 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
34.8% | 33.1–36.6% | 32.6–37.1% | 32.2–37.5% | 31.4–38.4% |
| 20–22 November 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
32.2% | 30.6–33.9% | 30.1–34.4% | 29.8–34.8% | 29.0–35.7% |
| 18–22 November 2024 | Ipsos La Vanguardia |
33.8% | 32.1–35.6% | 31.6–36.1% | 31.1–36.5% | 30.3–37.4% |
| 7–15 November 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
34.9% | 33.1–36.8% | 32.6–37.3% | 32.1–37.8% | 31.3–38.7% |
| 11–14 November 2024 | GAD3 Mediaset |
32.5% | 30.7–34.4% | 30.2–35.0% | 29.7–35.5% | 28.9–36.4% |
| 8–11 November 2024 | DYM Henneo |
33.1% | 31.2–35.0% | 30.7–35.6% | 30.3–36.1% | 29.4–37.0% |
| 5–8 November 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
35.3% | 33.4–37.3% | 32.9–37.8% | 32.4–38.3% | 31.5–39.3% |
| 24–31 October 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
35.9% | 34.4–37.4% | 34.0–37.8% | 33.7–38.1% | 33.0–38.8% |
| 21–24 October 2024 | GAD3 ABC |
34.1% | 32.2–36.0% | 31.7–36.6% | 31.2–37.1% | 30.3–38.0% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
35.2% | 33.3–37.2% | 32.8–37.7% | 32.3–38.2% | 31.4–39.1% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
35.2% | 33.9–36.5% | 33.5–36.9% | 33.2–37.2% | 32.6–37.8% |
| 16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
36.9% | 35.0–38.9% | 34.4–39.5% | 34.0–39.9% | 33.0–40.9% |
| 8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
35.2% | 33.3–37.2% | 32.8–37.7% | 32.3–38.2% | 31.4–39.2% |
| 4–9 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
35.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
35.5% | 34.1–36.9% | 33.7–37.3% | 33.4–37.7% | 32.7–38.4% |
| 25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
34.6% | 33.2–36.0% | 32.9–36.4% | 32.5–36.7% | 31.9–37.4% |
| 23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
33.3% | 31.4–35.2% | 30.9–35.8% | 30.4–36.2% | 29.5–37.2% |
| 16–20 September 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
37.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
34.6% | 32.7–36.5% | 32.1–37.1% | 31.7–37.6% | 30.8–38.5% |
| 1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
33.5% | 31.7–35.5% | 31.2–36.0% | 30.7–36.5% | 29.8–37.4% |
| 3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
34.9% | 33.0–36.9% | 32.5–37.4% | 32.0–37.9% | 31.1–38.9% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
35.5% | 33.7–37.4% | 33.2–38.0% | 32.8–38.4% | 31.9–39.3% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 28.5% | 27.6–29.4% | 27.3–29.7% | 27.1–29.9% | 26.7–30.4% |
| 26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
34.0% | 32.7–35.3% | 32.4–35.6% | 32.1–36.0% | 31.5–36.6% |
| 22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
35.4% | 34.2–36.7% | 33.8–37.1% | 33.5–37.4% | 32.9–38.0% |
| 20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
35.4% | 33.1–37.9% | 32.4–38.6% | 31.8–39.2% | 30.7–40.3% |
| 19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
34.0% | 32.6–35.4% | 32.3–35.8% | 31.9–36.1% | 31.3–36.8% |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
33.5% | 31.2–35.9% | 30.5–36.6% | 29.9–37.2% | 28.9–38.4% |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
35.3% | 34.0–36.7% | 33.6–37.0% | 33.3–37.4% | 32.6–38.0% |
| 22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
34.0% | 31.7–36.5% | 31.0–37.2% | 30.4–37.8% | 29.3–39.0% |
| 18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
34.4% | 32.7–36.2% | 32.2–36.7% | 31.8–37.2% | 31.0–38.0% |
| 12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
34.8% | 33.6–36.0% | 33.2–36.4% | 33.0–36.7% | 32.4–37.3% |
| 1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
33.5% | 31.2–36.0% | 30.5–36.7% | 30.0–37.3% | 28.9–38.5% |
| 1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
34.6% | 32.7–36.6% | 32.2–37.1% | 31.7–37.6% | 30.8–38.6% |
| 1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 30.2% | 29.3–31.1% | 29.0–31.4% | 28.8–31.6% | 28.3–32.1% |
| 21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
33.8% | 32.4–35.2% | 32.1–35.6% | 31.7–35.9% | 31.1–36.6% |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
34.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
33.3% | 32.0–34.7% | 31.6–35.1% | 31.3–35.4% | 30.6–36.1% |
| 11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
34.4% | 32.0–36.8% | 31.4–37.5% | 30.8–38.1% | 29.7–39.3% |
| 10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
38.5% | 35.2–42.4% | 34.2–43.4% | 33.3–44.3% | 31.7–46.1% |
| 1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
33.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partido Popular (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 4% | 97% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 92% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 92% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 2% | 91% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 3% | 89% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 4% | 86% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 6% | 82% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 7% | 76% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 8% | 69% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 9% | 60% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 33.5–34.5% | 13% | 41% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 12% | 27% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 8% | 16% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 39.5–40.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40.5–41.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 23 | 18–25 | 14–26 | 14–26 | 14–27 |
| 6–10 October 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
23 | 22–23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 |
| 3–9 October 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
20 | 19–21 | 19–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| 1–7 October 2025 | CIS | 14 | 14–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 |
| 1–4 October 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
25 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| 17 September–1 October 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
23 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 |
| 25–30 September 2025 | Opina 360 Antena 3 |
18 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| 26–28 September 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
22 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| 15–19 September 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
25 | 24–26 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| 10–15 September 2025 | DYM Henneo |
25 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–28 |
| 8–12 September 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
23 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| 10–11 September 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| 5–11 September 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
21 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 |
| 3–9 September 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
23 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| 1–6 September 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
25 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 21–28 |
| 1–6 September 2025 | CIS | 17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 15–18 |
| 2–5 September 2025 | Demoscopia y Servicios esRadio |
24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 29 August–1 September 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
22 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| 26–29 August 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
23 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| 20–28 August 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| 21–30 July 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
24 | 23–24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 |
| 21–24 July 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| 14–18 July 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
24 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–28 |
| 11–14 July 2025 | DYM Henneo |
26 | 25–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| 10–14 July 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
24 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| 9–10 July 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
24 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| 1–7 July 2025 | CIS | 19 | 18–19 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–20 |
| 30 June–4 July 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
25 | 22–27 | 22–28 | 21–29 | 20–30 |
| 27–30 June 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| 20–27 June 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| 18–21 June 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
24 | 24 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 21–26 |
| 19–21 June 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
25 | 24–27 | 23–28 | 22–28 | 22–28 |
| 18–20 June 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
24 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| 16–20 June 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
25 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 22–29 | 20–30 |
| 17 June 2025 | DYM Henneo |
26 | 25–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| 9–13 June 2025 | Invymark laSexta |
|||||
| 10–12 June 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| 2–7 June 2025 | CIS | 19 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 |
| 27–29 May 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
23 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| 21 April–28 May 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
24 | 23–24 | 23–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 |
| 23–26 May 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
24 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| 23–25 May 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
24 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| 21–23 May 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| 20–23 May 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
23 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| 19–22 May 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
24 | 23–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 |
| 15–21 May 2025 | Ipsos La Vanguardia |
24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–26 |
| 14–19 May 2025 | DYM Henneo |
25 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–28 |
| 5–8 May 2025 | CIS | 21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–23 |
| 28 April–6 May 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 |
| 24–27 April 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
25 | 24–25 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 |
| 23–25 April 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| 21–25 April 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| 14–17 April 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
23 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| 4–15 April 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
24 | 24 | 23–24 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 9–15 April 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica Vozpópuli |
24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 20–27 |
| 1–8 April 2025 | CIS | 19 | 19 | 18–19 | 18–19 | 17–20 |
| 28–31 March 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 27–28 March 2025 | Data10 OKDiario |
26 | 25–27 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–28 |
| 19–21 March 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| 19–21 March 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
23 | 23–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 |
| 14–21 March 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
23 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| 12–16 March 2025 | DYM Henneo |
25 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–28 |
| 24 February–7 March 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 |
| 3–7 March 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
23 | 23–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 |
| 28 February–7 March 2025 | CIS | 20 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 |
| 3–6 March 2025 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–25 | 20–25 |
| 24–28 February 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
24 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–27 |
| 21–24 February 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
23 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 |
| 19–21 February 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
23 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| 12–17 February 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 21–25 |
| 12–14 February 2025 | SocioMétrica El Español |
23 | 22–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| 4–7 February 2025 | NC Report La Razón |
24 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| 31 January–6 February 2025 | CIS | 20 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 |
| 24–31 January 2025 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
23 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 |
| 28–31 January 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| 24–27 January 2025 | 40dB Prisa |
24 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| 22–24 January 2025 | Target Point El Debate |
23 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| 16–23 January 2025 | GAD3 ABC |
25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–27 |
| 16–20 January 2025 | DYM Henneo |
25 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| 7–11 January 2025 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 |
| 31 December 2024–3 January 2025 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
24 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| 26–30 December 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| 26–30 December 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 |
| 20–27 December 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
24 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–27 |
| 13–26 December 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
23 | 23–24 | 23–24 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 20–26 December 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
24 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| 10–12 December 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| 5–11 December 2024 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
23 | 23–24 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–24 |
| 25 November–4 December 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 2–4 December 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| 25–29 November 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
24 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–27 |
| 25–27 November 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| 22–24 November 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| 20–22 November 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
23 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| 18–22 November 2024 | Ipsos La Vanguardia |
23 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| 7–15 November 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
23 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–27 |
| 11–14 November 2024 | GAD3 Mediaset |
23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 |
| 8–11 November 2024 | DYM Henneo |
24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| 5–8 November 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 |
| 24–31 October 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
25 | 24–26 | 24–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 |
| 21–24 October 2024 | GAD3 ABC |
23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–26 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
25 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–27 | 22–27 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| 16–18 October 2024 | DYM Henneo |
26 | 25–28 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| 8–11 October 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
24 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| 4–9 October 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
|||||
| 20–27 September 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
24 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 |
| 25–27 September 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
25 | 24–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–27 |
| 23–26 September 2024 | GESOP Prensa Ibérica |
23 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| 16–20 September 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
|||||
| 18–19 September 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| 1–13 September 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| 3–6 September 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
24 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | CIS | 20 | 19–20 | 19–20 | 19–21 | 19–21 |
| 26–31 August 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
22 | 22–23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 |
| 22–29 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
25 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 24–26 | 23–26 |
| 20–23 August 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–27 |
| 19–23 August 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
24 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| 1–9 August 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
24 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| 5–8 August 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
25 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| 22 July 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
24 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| 18–20 July 2024 | SocioMétrica El Español |
24 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| 12–18 July 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
24 | 24–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 |
| 1–10 July 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
23 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| 1–4 July 2024 | Hamalgama Métrica VozPópuli |
23 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 |
| 1–4 July 2024 | CIS | 21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 20–22 |
| 21–28 June 2024 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
23 | 23 | 23 | 23–24 | 21–25 |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Target Point El Debate |
|||||
| 21–24 June 2024 | 40dB Prisa |
24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| 11–15 June 2024 | NC Report La Razón |
22 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 20–26 |
| 10–14 June 2024 | Invymark laSexta |
26 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| 1–11 June 2024 | Simple Lógica elDiario.es |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partido Popular (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 18 | 6% | 91% | |
| 19 | 4% | 85% | |
| 20 | 5% | 82% | |
| 21 | 12% | 76% | |
| 22 | 11% | 64% | |
| 23 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 24 | 10% | 30% | |
| 25 | 13% | 21% | |
| 26 | 5% | 7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |