Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 2–5 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 29.8% | 28.1–31.6% | 27.6–32.1% | 27.2–32.6% | 26.4–33.5% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 25.1% | 23.5–26.8% | 23.0–27.3% | 22.6–27.7% | 21.9–28.6% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 18.6% | 17.2–20.2% | 16.8–20.7% | 16.4–21.0% | 15.8–21.8% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 16.9% | 15.5–18.4% | 15.1–18.9% | 14.8–19.3% | 14.2–20.0% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.5–4.0% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 137 | 112 | 112–125 | 112–128 | 110–128 | 106–135 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 95 | 92–97 | 86–97 | 82–102 | 82–105 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 58 | 56–64 | 52–67 | 52–70 | 50–72 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 56 | 50–56 | 44–60 | 39–60 | 38–60 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 9 | 8–9 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–14 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 3–12 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 7 | 4–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 1–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 110 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 112 | 66% | 95% | Median |
| 113 | 0% | 29% | |
| 114 | 0% | 29% | |
| 115 | 3% | 29% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 117 | 0% | 26% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 26% | |
| 119 | 0% | 25% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 121 | 7% | 24% | |
| 122 | 6% | 17% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 125 | 3% | 11% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 128 | 5% | 7% | |
| 129 | 0% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0% | 96% | |
| 84 | 0% | 96% | |
| 85 | 0% | 96% | Last Result |
| 86 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 91 | 3% | 93% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 94 | 3% | 88% | |
| 95 | 74% | 84% | Median |
| 96 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 97 | 6% | 10% | |
| 98 | 0% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 102 | 2% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 52 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 56 | 9% | 91% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 58 | 67% | 82% | Median |
| 59 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 63 | 3% | 13% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 65 | 3% | 10% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 67 | 3% | 7% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 46 | 2% | 94% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 48 | 0% | 92% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 50 | 5% | 90% | |
| 51 | 6% | 86% | |
| 52 | 0% | 80% | |
| 53 | 4% | 80% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 56 | 66% | 76% | Median |
| 57 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 58 | 0% | 9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 60 | 9% | 9% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 11% | 92% | |
| 9 | 75% | 81% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 11 | 3% | 6% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 6% | 98% | |
| 6 | 8% | 92% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 8 | 80% | 83% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 5 | 2% | 90% | Last Result |
| 6 | 13% | 88% | |
| 7 | 68% | 75% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 5% | 89% | Last Result |
| 3 | 7% | 83% | |
| 4 | 72% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 5% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | |
| 1 | 87% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 265 | 100% | 265–277 | 265–279 | 265–283 | 265–287 |
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 222 | 207 | 100% | 207–218 | 206–223 | 204–227 | 201–229 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 209 | 100% | 199–209 | 197–209 | 195–217 | 187–218 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 177 | 99.7% | 177–186 | 177–198 | 177–201 | 177–201 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 171 | 24% | 171–182 | 171–193 | 171–195 | 171–195 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 170 | 24% | 170–181 | 170–192 | 170–195 | 170–195 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 179 | 70% | 168–179 | 157–179 | 155–179 | 155–179 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 168 | 0.1% | 158–168 | 148–168 | 148–169 | 147–169 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 164 | 0% | 155–164 | 145–166 | 141–166 | 141–166 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 162 | 0% | 149–162 | 140–162 | 139–162 | 138–162 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 158 | 0% | 144–158 | 138–158 | 138–160 | 135–160 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 153 | 0.1% | 149–156 | 147–158 | 147–159 | 139–165 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 151 | 0% | 141–151 | 132–155 | 132–155 | 130–155 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 112 | 0% | 112–125 | 112–128 | 110–128 | 106–135 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 95 | 0% | 92–97 | 86–97 | 82–102 | 82–105 |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 100% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 265 | 66% | 99.8% | Median |
| 266 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 267 | 4% | 33% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 30% | |
| 269 | 6% | 29% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 271 | 3% | 23% | |
| 272 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 273 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 274 | 7% | 20% | |
| 275 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 276 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 277 | 4% | 11% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 279 | 2% | 6% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 281 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 282 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 283 | 3% | 3% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 287 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 196 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 202 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 203 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 204 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 205 | 0% | 96% | |
| 206 | 3% | 96% | |
| 207 | 67% | 93% | Median |
| 208 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 210 | 4% | 25% | |
| 211 | 0.9% | 21% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 20% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 215 | 0% | 20% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 217 | 6% | 19% | |
| 218 | 6% | 13% | |
| 219 | 0% | 7% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 221 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 222 | 0.9% | 6% | Last Result |
| 223 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 224 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 226 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 227 | 2% | 3% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 229 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 183 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 98% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 193 | 0% | 98% | |
| 194 | 0% | 98% | |
| 195 | 0% | 98% | |
| 196 | 2% | 97% | |
| 197 | 2% | 95% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 199 | 3% | 93% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 202 | 1.5% | 88% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 204 | 7% | 87% | |
| 205 | 0% | 80% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 80% | |
| 207 | 6% | 80% | |
| 208 | 0.7% | 74% | |
| 209 | 69% | 73% | Median |
| 210 | 0% | 5% | |
| 211 | 0% | 5% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 216 | 0% | 4% | |
| 217 | 3% | 4% | |
| 218 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 177 | 72% | 99.7% | Median |
| 178 | 0% | 28% | |
| 179 | 3% | 28% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 24% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 23% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 184 | 2% | 22% | |
| 185 | 6% | 19% | |
| 186 | 3% | 13% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 190 | 2% | 9% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 192 | 0% | 7% | |
| 193 | 0% | 7% | |
| 194 | 0% | 7% | |
| 195 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 196 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 199 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 201 | 3% | 4% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 171 | 66% | 99.9% | Median |
| 172 | 0.2% | 33% | |
| 173 | 3% | 33% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 30% | |
| 175 | 7% | 30% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 24% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 178 | 7% | 23% | |
| 179 | 0% | 16% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 181 | 3% | 16% | |
| 182 | 3% | 12% | |
| 183 | 0% | 9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 188 | 2% | 9% | |
| 189 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 195 | 3% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 170 | 66% | 99.8% | Median |
| 171 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 173 | 3% | 33% | |
| 174 | 6% | 30% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 24% | Majority |
| 177 | 6% | 22% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 180 | 3% | 16% | |
| 181 | 3% | 12% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 187 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 189 | 0% | 5% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 195 | 3% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 160 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 162 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 167 | 0% | 91% | |
| 168 | 4% | 91% | |
| 169 | 2% | 87% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 171 | 0% | 84% | |
| 172 | 7% | 84% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 77% | |
| 174 | 6% | 77% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 71% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 70% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 70% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 67% | |
| 179 | 66% | 67% | Median |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 148 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 157 | 0% | 91% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 159 | 2% | 89% | |
| 160 | 3% | 87% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 163 | 6% | 84% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 78% | |
| 165 | 2% | 78% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 76% | |
| 168 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 169 | 3% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 143 | 0% | 95% | |
| 144 | 0% | 95% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 146 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 153 | 0% | 91% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 155 | 3% | 90% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 157 | 2% | 86% | |
| 158 | 6% | 84% | |
| 159 | 0% | 77% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 77% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 77% | |
| 163 | 4% | 77% | |
| 164 | 66% | 73% | Median |
| 165 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 166 | 5% | 6% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 139 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 140 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 142 | 0% | 95% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 146 | 2% | 93% | |
| 147 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 148 | 0% | 90% | |
| 149 | 2% | 90% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 151 | 0% | 88% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 154 | 3% | 87% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 157 | 7% | 83% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 76% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 161 | 6% | 75% | |
| 162 | 69% | 70% | Median |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 138 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 144 | 2% | 92% | |
| 145 | 2% | 90% | |
| 146 | 0% | 88% | |
| 147 | 0% | 88% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 150 | 3% | 87% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 156 | 6% | 81% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 158 | 72% | 75% | Median |
| 159 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 160 | 3% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 147 | 7% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 149 | 4% | 91% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 153 | 72% | 85% | Median |
| 154 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 156 | 3% | 13% | |
| 157 | 3% | 10% | |
| 158 | 4% | 7% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 132 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 137 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 138 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 141 | 2% | 90% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 143 | 0% | 87% | |
| 144 | 3% | 87% | |
| 145 | 0% | 84% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 148 | 7% | 83% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 76% | |
| 151 | 67% | 76% | Median |
| 152 | 0% | 9% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 154 | 3% | 9% | |
| 155 | 5% | 6% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 110 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 112 | 66% | 95% | Median |
| 113 | 0% | 29% | |
| 114 | 0% | 29% | |
| 115 | 3% | 29% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 117 | 0% | 26% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 26% | |
| 119 | 0% | 25% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 121 | 7% | 24% | |
| 122 | 6% | 17% | |
| 123 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 125 | 3% | 11% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 128 | 5% | 7% | |
| 129 | 0% | 2% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 134 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0% | 96% | |
| 84 | 0% | 96% | |
| 85 | 0% | 96% | Last Result |
| 86 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 87 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 91 | 3% | 93% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 93 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 94 | 3% | 88% | |
| 95 | 74% | 84% | Median |
| 96 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 97 | 6% | 10% | |
| 98 | 0% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 102 | 2% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 2–5 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.57%