Partido Popular
Voting Intentions
Last result: 33.0% (General Election of 26 June 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 20.1% | 17.5–23.3% | 16.8–24.2% | 16.2–24.9% | 15.1–26.1% |
| 14–21 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.2% | 17.1–19.4% | 16.8–19.8% | 16.5–20.1% | 16.0–20.7% |
| 22 February–20 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
19.9% | 19.4–20.4% | 19.3–20.5% | 19.1–20.7% | 18.9–20.9% |
| 13–20 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.4% | 17.3–19.6% | 16.9–20.0% | 16.7–20.3% | 16.1–20.9% |
| 14–20 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
19.8% | 18.5–21.2% | 18.1–21.6% | 17.8–22.0% | 17.2–22.7% |
| 15–20 April 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
23.5% | 22.0–25.3% | 21.5–25.7% | 21.1–26.2% | 20.4–27.0% |
| 22 February–19 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.1% | 19.6–20.6% | 19.5–20.8% | 19.3–20.9% | 19.1–21.1% |
| 12–19 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.5% | 17.4–19.7% | 17.0–20.1% | 16.8–20.4% | 16.2–21.0% |
| 15–19 April 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
23.8% | 22.1–25.6% | 21.7–26.1% | 21.3–26.6% | 20.5–27.4% |
| 15–19 April 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
20.4% | 19.0–22.0% | 18.6–22.4% | 18.2–22.8% | 17.6–23.6% |
| 1–19 April 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
20.1% | 19.6–20.6% | 19.4–20.8% | 19.3–20.9% | 19.1–21.2% |
| 22 February–18 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.3% | 19.8–20.8% | 19.7–21.0% | 19.5–21.1% | 19.3–21.3% |
| 11–18 April 2019 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
18.3% | 16.8–20.0% | 16.4–20.4% | 16.0–20.8% | 15.3–21.6% |
| 11–18 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.6% | 17.5–19.8% | 17.1–20.2% | 16.9–20.5% | 16.3–21.1% |
| 15–18 April 2019 | Demoscopia y Servicios ESdiario |
21.6% | 19.9–23.4% | 19.5–23.9% | 19.1–24.3% | 18.3–25.2% |
| 15–18 April 2019 | 40dB El País |
17.8% | 16.7–18.9% | 16.4–19.3% | 16.2–19.5% | 15.7–20.1% |
| 22 February–17 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.4% | 19.9–20.9% | 19.8–21.1% | 19.6–21.2% | 19.4–21.5% |
| 10–17 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.7% | 17.6–20.0% | 17.3–20.3% | 17.0–20.6% | 16.4–21.2% |
| 3–17 April 2019 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
20.1% | 19.5–20.7% | 19.4–20.9% | 19.2–21.0% | 19.0–21.3% |
| 15–17 April 2019 | Instituto DYM El Independiente |
20.4% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.6% | 18.0–23.0% | 17.3–23.8% |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
23.8% | 22.2–25.5% | 21.8–26.0% | 21.4–26.4% | 20.6–27.3% |
| 22 February–16 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.2% | 19.7–20.7% | 19.5–20.9% | 19.4–21.0% | 19.2–21.2% |
| 9–16 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.8% | 17.6–20.0% | 17.3–20.3% | 17.0–20.7% | 16.5–21.3% |
| 11–16 April 2019 | Metroscopia Henneo |
19.6% | 18.9–20.4% | 18.7–20.6% | 18.5–20.8% | 18.2–21.1% |
| 10–16 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
19.3% | 18.0–20.7% | 17.6–21.1% | 17.3–21.4% | 16.7–22.1% |
| 22 February–15 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.2% | 19.7–20.7% | 19.5–20.9% | 19.4–21.0% | 19.2–21.2% |
| 13–15 April 2019 | Top Position | 22.3% | 20.8–23.9% | 20.4–24.4% | 20.1–24.8% | 19.4–25.6% |
| 8–15 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
19.0% | 17.8–20.2% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.7–21.5% |
| 9–15 April 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
20.9% | 19.8–22.1% | 19.4–22.5% | 19.2–22.7% | 18.6–23.3% |
| 12–15 April 2019 | Demoscopia y Servicios OKDIARIO |
21.3% | 19.6–23.1% | 19.2–23.6% | 18.8–24.1% | 18.0–25.0% |
| 22 February–14 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.0% | 19.5–20.5% | 19.3–20.7% | 19.2–20.8% | 19.0–21.0% |
| 30 March–14 April 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
24.1% | 22.4–25.9% | 21.9–26.4% | 21.6–26.9% | 20.8–27.7% |
| 7–13 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
18.6% | 17.3–20.0% | 16.9–20.4% | 16.6–20.7% | 16.0–21.4% |
| 5–12 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
19.1% | 18.0–20.3% | 17.6–20.7% | 17.4–21.0% | 16.8–21.6% |
| 8–11 April 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
20.8% | 19.4–22.4% | 19.0–22.8% | 18.6–23.2% | 18.0–24.0% |
| 9–11 April 2019 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
21.0% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.3–24.0% | 17.5–24.9% |
| 8–11 April 2019 | Demoscopia y Servicios ESdiario |
20.8% | 19.1–22.6% | 18.7–23.1% | 18.3–23.5% | 17.5–24.4% |
| 4–10 April 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
23.9% | 22.3–25.6% | 21.9–26.1% | 21.5–26.5% | 20.7–27.4% |
| 3–9 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
19.4% | 18.1–20.8% | 17.7–21.2% | 17.4–21.6% | 16.8–22.3% |
| 8–9 April 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
21.3% | 20.1–22.5% | 19.8–22.9% | 19.6–23.2% | 19.0–23.7% |
| 22 February–7 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.1% | 19.6–20.6% | 19.4–20.8% | 19.3–20.9% | 19.1–21.2% |
| 22 February–7 April 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| 31 March–6 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
20.0% | 18.7–21.4% | 18.3–21.8% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.4–22.8% |
| 1–5 April 2019 | Simple Lógica | 16.7% | 15.3–18.3% | 14.9–18.7% | 14.6–19.1% | 13.9–19.8% |
| 1–5 April 2019 | GESOP El Periódico |
21.0% | 19.7–22.4% | 19.3–22.8% | 19.0–23.1% | 18.4–23.8% |
| 26 March–4 April 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
20.9% | 20.1–21.7% | 19.9–22.0% | 19.7–22.2% | 19.3–22.6% |
| 26 March–3 April 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
23.6% | 22.0–25.3% | 21.6–25.8% | 21.2–26.2% | 20.5–27.1% |
| 27 March–2 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
20.8% | 19.5–22.3% | 19.1–22.7% | 18.8–23.0% | 18.2–23.7% |
| 22 February–31 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
19.9% | 19.4–20.5% | 19.2–20.6% | 19.1–20.7% | 18.8–21.0% |
| 28–30 March 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
23.0% | 20.1–26.3% | 19.3–27.3% | 18.6–28.1% | 17.3–29.8% |
| 24–30 March 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
21.6% | 20.3–23.1% | 19.9–23.5% | 19.6–23.9% | 18.9–24.6% |
| 25–29 March 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.8% | 17.6–20.1% | 17.3–20.5% | 17.0–20.8% | 16.4–21.4% |
| 25–29 March 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
20.1% | 18.7–21.6% | 18.3–22.1% | 17.9–22.5% | 17.2–23.2% |
| 24–27 March 2019 | Demoscopia y Servicios OKDIARIO |
21.0% | 19.6–22.6% | 19.1–23.1% | 18.8–23.5% | 18.1–24.2% |
| 21–27 March 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
22.9% | 21.3–24.6% | 20.9–25.1% | 20.5–25.5% | 19.8–26.3% |
| 20–26 March 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
20.0% | 18.7–21.4% | 18.3–21.8% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.4–22.9% |
| 18–25 March 2019 | Metroscopia Henneo |
19.0% | 18.0–20.0% | 17.8–20.3% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.1–21.0% |
| 22 February–24 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.1% | 19.5–20.7% | 19.4–20.9% | 19.2–21.0% | 19.0–21.3% |
| 17–23 March 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
19.5% | 18.2–20.9% | 17.8–21.3% | 17.5–21.7% | 16.9–22.4% |
| 18–22 March 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
22.4% | 20.8–24.2% | 20.3–24.7% | 19.9–25.1% | 19.2–26.0% |
| 1–22 March 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
21.9% | 21.3–22.5% | 21.1–22.7% | 21.0–22.9% | 20.7–23.2% |
| 15–20 March 2019 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
18.9% | 17.4–20.6% | 16.9–21.0% | 16.6–21.5% | 15.9–22.3% |
| 14–19 March 2019 | 40dB El País |
19.3% | 18.1–20.7% | 17.7–21.1% | 17.4–21.4% | 16.8–22.1% |
| 1–18 March 2019 | CIS | 17.2% | 16.8–17.6% | 16.7–17.7% | 16.6–17.8% | 16.4–18.0% |
| 22 February–17 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.7% | 20.1–21.3% | 19.9–21.5% | 19.8–21.6% | 19.5–21.9% |
| 11–15 March 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
23.2% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–25.9% | 19.9–26.8% |
| 4–13 March 2019 | Simple Lógica | 17.1% | 15.7–18.7% | 15.3–19.1% | 15.0–19.5% | 14.4–20.2% |
| 8–11 March 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
22.8% | 21.2–24.5% | 20.8–25.0% | 20.4–25.4% | 19.7–26.2% |
| 22 February–10 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.3% | 19.7–20.9% | 19.5–21.1% | 19.3–21.3% | 19.1–21.6% |
| 5–8 March 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
17.5% | 16.3–18.8% | 16.0–19.1% | 15.7–19.4% | 15.2–20.1% |
| 4–8 March 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
20.4% | 19.0–22.0% | 18.6–22.4% | 18.2–22.8% | 17.6–23.6% |
| 4–8 March 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
22.1% | 20.5–23.9% | 20.0–24.4% | 19.6–24.8% | 18.9–25.6% |
| 22 February–3 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.5% | 19.8–21.2% | 19.6–21.4% | 19.4–21.6% | 19.1–22.0% |
| 19–22 February 2019 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19.1% | 17.7–20.6% | 17.3–21.0% | 16.9–21.4% | 16.3–22.2% |
| 18–22 February 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
23.2% | 21.4–25.3% | 20.9–25.8% | 20.5–26.3% | 19.6–27.3% |
| 13–21 February 2019 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
19.3% | 18.1–20.7% | 17.7–21.1% | 17.4–21.4% | 16.8–22.1% |
| 18–21 February 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
21.0% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.1–23.0% | 18.8–23.4% | 18.1–24.2% |
| 13–15 February 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.6% | 17.1–20.3% | 16.7–20.7% | 16.3–21.1% | 15.6–21.9% |
| 11–15 February 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
23.6% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| 13–15 February 2019 | GESOP El Periódico |
19.9% | 18.4–21.6% | 17.9–22.1% | 17.5–22.5% | 16.8–23.3% |
| 12–15 February 2019 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
23.6% | 22.1–25.2% | 21.6–25.7% | 21.3–26.1% | 20.5–26.9% |
| 11–13 February 2019 | Metroscopia Henneo |
20.5% | 19.4–21.7% | 19.1–22.0% | 18.8–22.3% | 18.3–22.9% |
| 1–8 February 2019 | Simple Lógica | 17.9% | 16.4–19.5% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.7–20.4% | 15.0–21.2% |
| 4–8 February 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
23.1% | 21.5–24.8% | 21.1–25.3% | 20.7–25.7% | 20.0–26.5% |
| 28 January–1 February 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
21.3% | 19.9–22.9% | 19.5–23.4% | 19.1–23.7% | 18.4–24.5% |
| 26–30 January 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
20.1% | 19.2–21.1% | 18.9–21.4% | 18.7–21.6% | 18.2–22.1% |
| 21–25 January 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| 14–24 January 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
23.0% | 21.8–24.3% | 21.4–24.7% | 21.1–25.0% | 20.5–25.7% |
| 14–18 January 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
21.5% | 20.0–23.1% | 19.6–23.5% | 19.3–23.9% | 18.6–24.7% |
| 9–15 January 2019 | Metroscopia Henneo |
19.1% | 18.1–20.2% | 17.8–20.5% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.3% |
| 6–13 January 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
19.1% | 17.8–20.5% | 17.4–20.9% | 17.1–21.2% | 16.5–21.9% |
| 1–13 January 2019 | CIS | 14.9% | 14.1–15.8% | 13.8–16.0% | 13.7–16.2% | 13.3–16.6% |
| 3–9 January 2019 | Simple Lógica | 18.2% | 16.8–19.8% | 16.4–20.3% | 16.0–20.7% | 15.3–21.5% |
| 2–8 January 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
23.8% | 22.2–25.5% | 21.8–26.0% | 21.4–26.4% | 20.6–27.3% |
| 22 December 2018–5 January 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
18.3% | 17.3–19.4% | 17.0–19.7% | 16.8–20.0% | 16.3–20.5% |
| 21–27 December 2018 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
19.2% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.2–21.4% | 16.9–21.8% | 16.2–22.6% |
| 17–21 December 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
21.8% | 20.3–23.4% | 19.9–23.9% | 19.6–24.3% | 18.9–25.0% |
| 16 December 2018 | Sigma Dos Antena 3 |
21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.0–24.7% |
| 10–14 December 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
21.6% | 19.9–23.4% | 19.4–23.9% | 19.0–24.4% | 18.2–25.3% |
| 3–14 December 2018 | Simple Lógica | 18.8% | 17.4–20.3% | 17.0–20.7% | 16.7–21.1% | 16.0–21.8% |
| 5–14 December 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
24.4% | 22.7–26.2% | 22.2–26.7% | 21.8–27.2% | 21.0–28.0% |
| 10–14 December 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–23.9% |
| 10–13 December 2018 | IMOP El Confidencial |
19.6% | 18.1–21.2% | 17.6–21.7% | 17.3–22.1% | 16.6–22.9% |
| 10–12 December 2018 | Metroscopia Henneo |
18.0% | 16.9–19.2% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.3–19.8% | 15.8–20.4% |
| 3–11 December 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
24.7% | 23.1–26.5% | 22.6–26.9% | 22.3–27.4% | 21.5–28.2% |
| 3–7 December 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
22.9% | 21.4–24.5% | 21.0–25.0% | 20.6–25.4% | 19.9–26.2% |
| 5 December 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
20.3% | 18.7–22.1% | 18.2–22.6% | 17.8–23.1% | 17.1–24.0% |
| 3–4 December 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
19.1% | 17.8–20.4% | 17.5–20.8% | 17.2–21.1% | 16.6–21.8% |
| 2–14 November 2018 | Simple Lógica | 19.6% | 18.1–21.3% | 17.7–21.8% | 17.3–22.2% | 16.6–23.0% |
| 5–9 November 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
26.3% | 24.6–28.2% | 24.1–28.7% | 23.7–29.1% | 22.8–30.0% |
| 5–9 November 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
24.2% | 22.6–25.8% | 22.2–26.3% | 21.8–26.7% | 21.1–27.5% |
| 5–9 November 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
25.8% | 24.2–27.6% | 23.7–28.1% | 23.3–28.5% | 22.5–29.3% |
| 2–7 November 2018 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
22.2% | 20.4–24.2% | 19.9–24.8% | 19.5–25.3% | 18.7–26.2% |
| 22–30 October 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
21.3% | 19.6–23.1% | 19.2–23.6% | 18.7–24.1% | 18.0–25.0% |
| 20–26 October 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
23.1% | 21.5–24.9% | 21.1–25.4% | 20.7–25.8% | 19.9–26.7% |
| 22–26 October 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
24.2% | 22.6–25.8% | 22.2–26.3% | 21.8–26.7% | 21.1–27.5% |
| 16–18 October 2018 | Metroscopia Henneo |
22.6% | 21.3–24.0% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.6–24.7% | 20.0–25.4% |
| 1–11 October 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
26.7% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.5–29.1% | 24.1–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| 1–9 October 2018 | CIS | 18.2% | 17.3–19.1% | 17.1–19.4% | 16.8–19.6% | 16.4–20.1% |
| 30 September–5 October 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
23.6% | 22.0–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.4–27.2% |
| 1–5 October 2018 | Simple Lógica | 23.8% | 22.2–25.5% | 21.7–26.0% | 21.3–26.5% | 20.6–27.3% |
| 1–5 October 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
26.3% | 24.6–28.0% | 24.2–28.5% | 23.7–29.0% | 23.0–29.8% |
| 2 October 2018 | Simple Lógica eldebate.es |
21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.0–24.7% |
| 24–28 September 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
24.6% | 23.0–26.2% | 22.6–26.7% | 22.2–27.1% | 21.5–27.9% |
| 17–19 September 2018 | Metroscopia Henneo |
22.8% | 21.3–24.5% | 20.8–25.0% | 20.4–25.4% | 19.7–26.2% |
| 17–19 September 2018 | Instituto DYM El Independiente |
23.4% | 21.8–25.2% | 21.3–25.7% | 20.9–26.1% | 20.1–27.0% |
| 10–14 September 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
24.1% | 22.5–25.7% | 22.1–26.2% | 21.7–26.6% | 21.0–27.4% |
| 6–11 September 2018 | IMOP El Confidencial |
20.3% | 18.7–21.9% | 18.3–22.4% | 17.9–22.8% | 17.2–23.7% |
| 1–11 September 2018 | CIS | 20.8% | 19.9–21.8% | 19.6–22.1% | 19.4–22.3% | 18.9–22.8% |
| 7–9 September 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
24.6% | 22.9–26.3% | 22.5–26.8% | 22.1–27.3% | 21.3–28.1% |
| 3–7 September 2018 | Simple Lógica | 21.1% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.1–23.3% | 18.7–23.7% | 17.9–24.6% |
| 3–7 September 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
25.9% | 24.2–27.7% | 23.7–28.2% | 23.2–28.7% | 22.5–29.6% |
| 3–7 September 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
26.4% | 24.7–28.1% | 24.2–28.6% | 23.8–29.1% | 23.1–29.9% |
| 27–31 August 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
27.5% | 25.7–29.4% | 25.2–29.9% | 24.8–30.4% | 24.0–31.3% |
| 22–30 August 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
22.6% | 21.1–24.2% | 20.7–24.6% | 20.3–25.0% | 19.6–25.8% |
| 1–7 August 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
25.5% | 23.9–27.3% | 23.4–27.8% | 23.0–28.2% | 22.3–29.1% |
| 27 July–3 August 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
22.9% | 21.3–24.6% | 20.9–25.1% | 20.5–25.5% | 19.8–26.3% |
| 1–3 August 2018 | Simple Lógica | 24.4% | 22.7–26.2% | 22.3–26.7% | 21.9–27.1% | 21.1–28.0% |
| 23–27 July 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
26.7% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.5–29.1% | 24.1–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| 23–27 July 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
24.4% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.4–26.5% | 22.1–26.9% | 21.3–27.7% |
| 24–26 July 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
26.2% | 24.3–28.3% | 23.8–28.9% | 23.3–29.4% | 22.4–30.4% |
| 16–25 July 2018 | Metroscopia Henneo |
24.4% | 23.2–25.6% | 22.9–25.9% | 22.6–26.2% | 22.1–26.8% |
| 22–25 July 2018 | Demoscopia y Servicios OKDIARIO |
27.1% | 25.4–28.9% | 25.0–29.4% | 24.6–29.9% | 23.8–30.7% |
| 17–22 July 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
21.0% | 20.0–22.0% | 19.8–22.3% | 19.5–22.5% | 19.1–23.0% |
| 9–13 July 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
23.4% | 21.9–25.0% | 21.5–25.5% | 21.1–25.9% | 20.4–26.7% |
| 9–12 July 2018 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
22.3% | 20.7–24.1% | 20.2–24.6% | 19.8–25.0% | 19.1–25.8% |
| 1–10 July 2018 | CIS | 20.4% | 19.4–21.5% | 19.1–21.8% | 18.9–22.0% | 18.4–22.6% |
| 2–6 July 2018 | Simple Lógica | 18.7% | 17.2–20.3% | 16.8–20.8% | 16.4–21.2% | 15.8–22.0% |
| 2–6 July 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
24.2% | 22.6–25.9% | 22.1–26.4% | 21.7–26.8% | 21.0–27.6% |
| 25–30 June 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
25.2% | 23.5–27.0% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.6–28.0% | 21.8–28.9% |
| 19–22 June 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
19.5% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.5–21.7% | 17.2–22.1% | 16.4–22.9% |
| 18–22 June 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
22.9% | 21.4–24.5% | 21.0–25.0% | 20.6–25.4% | 19.9–26.2% |
| 11–13 June 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
21.0% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.3–24.0% | 17.5–24.9% |
| 11–12 June 2018 | Instituto DYM El Independiente |
24.9% | 23.2–26.7% | 22.8–27.2% | 22.4–27.7% | 21.6–28.6% |
| 1–9 June 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
25.5% | 23.9–27.2% | 23.5–27.6% | 23.1–28.0% | 22.4–28.9% |
| 4–8 June 2018 | Simple Lógica | 20.6% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.6–22.8% | 18.2–23.2% | 17.5–24.0% |
| 4–8 June 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
23.7% | 22.1–25.3% | 21.7–25.8% | 21.3–26.2% | 20.6–27.0% |
| 7–8 June 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
25.6% | 23.7–27.7% | 23.2–28.3% | 22.7–28.8% | 21.8–29.8% |
| 4–8 June 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
24.3% | 22.7–26.0% | 22.2–26.5% | 21.8–26.9% | 21.1–27.7% |
| 6–7 June 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
17.1% | 15.6–18.9% | 15.1–19.4% | 14.7–19.8% | 14.0–20.7% |
| 26 May–2 June 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
18.0% | 16.9–19.1% | 16.7–19.5% | 16.4–19.8% | 15.9–20.3% |
| 28–29 May 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
23.5% | 22.0–25.1% | 21.6–25.6% | 21.2–26.0% | 20.5–26.8% |
| 26–28 May 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
17.9% | 16.6–19.3% | 16.3–19.6% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.4–20.7% |
| 23–28 May 2018 | IMOP El Confidencial |
19.6% | 18.1–21.3% | 17.6–21.7% | 17.3–22.2% | 16.6–23.0% |
| 17–26 May 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
16.8% | 15.7–18.0% | 15.4–18.4% | 15.1–18.7% | 14.6–19.3% |
| 16–25 May 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
25.6% | 23.9–27.4% | 23.4–28.0% | 23.0–28.4% | 22.2–29.3% |
| 3–10 May 2018 | Simple Lógica | 20.9% | 19.4–22.6% | 18.9–23.0% | 18.6–23.5% | 17.8–24.3% |
| 7–9 May 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
19.5% | 18.3–20.8% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.7–21.5% | 17.2–22.1% |
| 26–30 April 2018 | Celeste-Tel PSOE |
26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.8–28.4% | 23.4–28.8% | 22.6–29.7% |
| 12–18 April 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| 9–13 April 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
26.3% | 24.6–28.2% | 24.1–28.7% | 23.7–29.1% | 22.8–30.0% |
| 9–13 April 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
24.8% | 23.3–26.5% | 22.8–27.0% | 22.5–27.4% | 21.7–28.2% |
| 1–10 April 2018 | CIS | 24.0% | 22.9–25.1% | 22.6–25.5% | 22.4–25.7% | 21.8–26.3% |
| 2–9 April 2018 | Simple Lógica | 19.0% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.8–21.5% | 16.1–22.3% |
| 2–6 April 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
24.9% | 23.3–26.6% | 22.8–27.1% | 22.4–27.6% | 21.7–28.4% |
| 4–5 April 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
20.4% | 19.0–21.9% | 18.6–22.4% | 18.3–22.7% | 17.6–23.5% |
| 19–29 March 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
21.9% | 20.3–23.7% | 19.8–24.1% | 19.4–24.6% | 18.7–25.4% |
| 23–27 March 2018 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
23.3% | 21.6–25.1% | 21.2–25.6% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.9% |
| 13–16 March 2018 | MyWord Cadena SER |
24.7% | 23.0–26.5% | 22.5–27.0% | 22.1–27.4% | 21.3–28.3% |
| 12–16 March 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
25.1% | 23.5–26.7% | 23.1–27.2% | 22.7–27.6% | 22.0–28.4% |
| 12–14 March 2018 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
23.8% | 22.1–25.6% | 21.7–26.1% | 21.3–26.6% | 20.5–27.4% |
| 1–7 March 2018 | Simple Lógica | 20.0% | 18.5–21.6% | 18.1–22.1% | 17.7–22.5% | 17.0–23.3% |
| 1–7 March 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
26.6% | 25.0–28.4% | 24.5–28.9% | 24.1–29.3% | 23.3–30.2% |
| 2–5 March 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
21.5% | 20.0–23.1% | 19.6–23.6% | 19.3–24.0% | 18.6–24.8% |
| 26 February–2 March 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
27.9% | 26.1–29.8% | 25.6–30.3% | 25.2–30.8% | 24.4–31.7% |
| 26 February–2 March 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
26.0% | 24.4–27.7% | 24.0–28.2% | 23.6–28.6% | 22.8–29.4% |
| 22–27 February 2018 | IMOP El Confidencial |
21.4% | 20.0–22.9% | 19.6–23.3% | 19.3–23.6% | 18.7–24.3% |
| 12–16 February 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
25.9% | 24.3–27.6% | 23.9–28.1% | 23.5–28.5% | 22.8–29.3% |
| 7–14 February 2018 | MyWord Cadena SER |
24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.9–27.3% | 21.1–28.2% |
| 5–9 February 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
28.9% | 27.2–30.7% | 26.7–31.2% | 26.3–31.7% | 25.5–32.5% |
| 5–8 February 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
21.9% | 20.5–23.4% | 20.1–23.8% | 19.7–24.2% | 19.1–24.9% |
| 1–7 February 2018 | Simple Lógica | 22.2% | 20.6–23.9% | 20.1–24.3% | 19.8–24.8% | 19.0–25.6% |
| 31 January–7 February 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
25.8% | 24.1–27.7% | 23.6–28.2% | 23.2–28.7% | 22.4–29.6% |
| 22–26 January 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
26.1% | 24.5–27.8% | 24.1–28.2% | 23.7–28.7% | 22.9–29.5% |
| 2–14 January 2018 | CIS | 26.3% | 25.2–27.5% | 24.8–27.8% | 24.6–28.1% | 24.1–28.6% |
| 9–11 January 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
23.2% | 21.8–24.7% | 21.4–25.2% | 21.0–25.5% | 20.3–26.3% |
| 8–11 January 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
24.8% | 22.9–26.8% | 22.3–27.4% | 21.9–27.9% | 21.0–28.9% |
| 2–8 January 2018 | Simple Lógica | 21.8% | 20.2–23.5% | 19.8–23.9% | 19.4–24.4% | 18.7–25.2% |
| 2–5 January 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
29.8% | 28.1–31.6% | 27.6–32.1% | 27.2–32.6% | 26.4–33.5% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partido Popular.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 6% | 96% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 10% | 90% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 15% | 80% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 28% | 65% | Median |
| 20.5–21.5% | 13% | 38% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 9% | 24% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 7% | 15% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 5% | 9% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 2% | 4% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 137 seats (General Election of 26 June 2016)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 80 | 68–99 | 65–104 | 62–107 | 56–115 |
| 14–21 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
68 | 66–71 | 65–77 | 65–77 | 60–79 |
| 22 February–20 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
81 | 78–83 | 77–83 | 76–84 | 74–84 |
| 13–20 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
70 | 64–76 | 63–78 | 62–79 | 59–82 |
| 14–20 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
80 | 70–84 | 68–85 | 67–88 | 64–92 |
| 15–20 April 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
104 | 88–113 | 86–115 | 83–115 | 80–116 |
| 22 February–19 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
80 | 77–83 | 77–83 | 77–84 | 76–85 |
| 12–19 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
71 | 63–77 | 63–79 | 61–80 | 57–83 |
| 15–19 April 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
101 | 85–111 | 84–113 | 83–115 | 79–119 |
| 15–19 April 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
81 | 73–89 | 71–92 | 69–95 | 66–101 |
| 1–19 April 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
79 | 76–80 | 73–81 | 72–81 | 70–82 |
| 22 February–18 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
80 | 78–83 | 76–84 | 76–84 | 76–87 |
| 11–18 April 2019 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
69 | 65–80 | 62–80 | 60–84 | 57–89 |
| 11–18 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
69 | 68–72 | 67–74 | 65–77 | 61–80 |
| 15–18 April 2019 | Demoscopia y Servicios ESdiario |
84 | 76–98 | 73–101 | 70–105 | 68–107 |
| 15–18 April 2019 | 40dB El País |
71 | 65–75 | 64–76 | 64–76 | 61–79 |
| 22 February–17 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
81 | 79–85 | 79–85 | 79–85 | 77–87 |
| 10–17 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
77 | 67–78 | 65–82 | 62–82 | 60–83 |
| 3–17 April 2019 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
79 | 74–83 | 73–84 | 72–85 | 71–85 |
| 15–17 April 2019 | Instituto DYM El Independiente |
82 | 72–89 | 70–93 | 68–96 | 65–101 |
| 11–17 April 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
101 | 86–109 | 86–113 | 83–117 | 81–120 |
| 22 February–16 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
81 | 80–83 | 79–84 | 78–85 | 75–85 |
| 9–16 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
71 | 64–77 | 63–78 | 62–80 | 58–84 |
| 11–16 April 2019 | Metroscopia Henneo |
78 | 73–83 | 72–83 | 71–84 | 70–86 |
| 10–16 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
76 | 68–84 | 65–88 | 65–88 | 63–88 |
| 22 February–15 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
81 | 76–82 | 76–84 | 76–84 | 75–85 |
| 13–15 April 2019 | Top Position | 91 | 80–103 | 79–105 | 78–106 | 74–111 |
| 8–15 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
73 | 66–80 | 64–82 | 63–82 | 59–84 |
| 9–15 April 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
83 | 77–89 | 75–92 | 73–94 | 70–99 |
| 12–15 April 2019 | Demoscopia y Servicios OKDIARIO |
84 | 75–96 | 71–99 | 71–102 | 67–105 |
| 22 February–14 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
81 | 78–83 | 77–84 | 77–85 | 76–86 |
| 30 March–14 April 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
101 | 88–108 | 86–112 | 84–113 | 81–119 |
| 7–13 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
70 | 65–80 | 63–80 | 61–82 | 58–85 |
| 5–12 April 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
74 | 66–80 | 66–81 | 64–81 | 63–84 |
| 8–11 April 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
83 | 75–93 | 73–95 | 71–97 | 67–101 |
| 9–11 April 2019 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
84 | 72–97 | 70–103 | 69–103 | 65–104 |
| 8–11 April 2019 | Demoscopia y Servicios ESdiario |
78 | 74–89 | 71–90 | 69–94 | 63–101 |
| 4–10 April 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
99 | 89–114 | 87–116 | 85–120 | 80–120 |
| 3–9 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
72 | 68–81 | 66–84 | 66–86 | 62–87 |
| 8–9 April 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
85 | 80–92 | 78–95 | 76–97 | 72–103 |
| 22 February–7 April 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
82 | 80–83 | 80–84 | 79–85 | 78–86 |
| 22 February–7 April 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
101 | 90–109 | 86–116 | 84–117 | 82–118 |
| 31 March–6 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
78 | 69–84 | 68–84 | 67–86 | 65–90 |
| 1–5 April 2019 | Simple Lógica | 65 | 56–70 | 55–72 | 53–75 | 52–82 |
| 1–5 April 2019 | GESOP El Periódico |
85 | 78–92 | 75–95 | 73–98 | 70–103 |
| 26 March–4 April 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
85 | 79–88 | 78–89 | 76–90 | 73–92 |
| 26 March–3 April 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
98 | 90–106 | 88–110 | 86–112 | 82–118 |
| 27 March–2 April 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
83 | 75–88 | 72–90 | 71–91 | 68–97 |
| 22 February–31 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
80 | 79–84 | 78–84 | 77–84 | 75–86 |
| 28–30 March 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
96 | 80–113 | 75–116 | 72–120 | 65–127 |
| 24–30 March 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
86 | 79–92 | 76–93 | 73–96 | 70–103 |
| 25–29 March 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
73 | 67–77 | 65–79 | 63–82 | 62–84 |
| 25–29 March 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
79 | 72–89 | 70–92 | 68–94 | 64–98 |
| 24–27 March 2019 | Demoscopia y Servicios OKDIARIO |
84 | 76–91 | 74–92 | 72–93 | 65–99 |
| 21–27 March 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
91 | 86–106 | 84–110 | 82–110 | 79–113 |
| 20–26 March 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
77 | 69–84 | 68–86 | 67–89 | 64–94 |
| 18–25 March 2019 | Metroscopia Henneo |
75 | 68–79 | 66–81 | 65–83 | 62–84 |
| 22 February–24 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
80 | 78–84 | 77–85 | 76–85 | 73–86 |
| 17–23 March 2019 | IMOP El Confidencial |
78 | 68–85 | 68–86 | 67–88 | 65–91 |
| 18–22 March 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
91 | 82–99 | 80–103 | 77–105 | 74–111 |
| 1–22 March 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
89 | 86–95 | 85–95 | 84–95 | 82–98 |
| 15–20 March 2019 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
73 | 68–81 | 67–86 | 65–88 | 62–94 |
| 14–19 March 2019 | 40dB El País |
79 | 73–85 | 70–87 | 68–89 | 64–94 |
| 1–18 March 2019 | CIS | 66 | 66 | 65–67 | 65–67 | 65–68 |
| 22 February–17 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
82 | 79–87 | 78–88 | 76–90 | 75–92 |
| 11–15 March 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
94 | 85–105 | 84–107 | 81–110 | 76–115 |
| 4–13 March 2019 | Simple Lógica | 67 | 60–74 | 58–76 | 57–79 | 54–83 |
| 8–11 March 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
94 | 85–103 | 83–107 | 82–109 | 77–114 |
| 22 February–10 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
82 | 78–85 | 77–86 | 76–88 | 75–91 |
| 5–8 March 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
63 | 60–71 | 59–74 | 59–75 | 57–78 |
| 4–8 March 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
82 | 74–90 | 72–92 | 70–93 | 66–98 |
| 4–8 March 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
96 | 79–104 | 77–107 | 75–108 | 72–110 |
| 22 February–3 March 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
83 | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–90 | 75–96 |
| 19–22 February 2019 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
75 | 67–81 | 64–84 | 63–87 | 59–91 |
| 18–22 February 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
92 | 80–105 | 79–110 | 79–113 | 72–117 |
| 13–21 February 2019 | Sondaxe La Voz de Galicia |
75 | 70–80 | 68–82 | 67–84 | 64–88 |
| 18–21 February 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
86 | 76–92 | 75–95 | 73–97 | 70–102 |
| 13–15 February 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
73 | 62–85 | 59–88 | 56–90 | 56–91 |
| 11–15 February 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
95 | 87–106 | 85–109 | 82–113 | 78–116 |
| 13–15 February 2019 | GESOP El Periódico |
79 | 71–89 | 69–92 | 67–96 | 64–101 |
| 12–15 February 2019 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
97 | 87–105 | 87–107 | 85–109 | 81–114 |
| 11–13 February 2019 | Metroscopia Henneo |
81 | 75–88 | 74–91 | 72–93 | 69–97 |
| 1–8 February 2019 | Simple Lógica | 73 | 64–81 | 62–84 | 60–87 | 57–91 |
| 4–8 February 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
93 | 89–108 | 85–108 | 81–109 | 79–115 |
| 28 January–1 February 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
88 | 79–94 | 76–97 | 75–99 | 71–104 |
| 26–30 January 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
83 | 76–88 | 74–88 | 73–89 | 71–92 |
| 21–25 January 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
98 | 88–108 | 86–111 | 84–114 | 81–117 |
| 14–24 January 2019 | GAD3 ABC |
95 | 90–104 | 87–107 | 86–110 | 84–111 |
| 14–18 January 2019 | Invymark laSexta |
88 | 79–95 | 76–98 | 75–100 | 72–104 |
| 9–15 January 2019 | Metroscopia Henneo |
75 | 70–81 | 68–83 | 66–85 | 63–88 |
| 6–13 January 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
74 | 69–83 | 66–86 | 64–88 | 62–91 |
| 1–13 January 2019 | CIS | 65 | 54–65 | 54–65 | 53–65 | 51–68 |
| 3–9 January 2019 | Simple Lógica | 74 | 65–82 | 62–85 | 61–88 | 58–91 |
| 2–8 January 2019 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
98 | 91–107 | 88–112 | 84–112 | 81–117 |
| 22 December 2018–5 January 2019 | SocioMétrica El Español |
72 | 66–77 | 65–78 | 63–79 | 60–84 |
| 21–27 December 2018 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
75 | 68–85 | 66–88 | 64–90 | 60–95 |
| 17–21 December 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
88 | 82–97 | 80–97 | 77–98 | 73–108 |
| 16 December 2018 | Sigma Dos Antena 3 |
87 | 77–96 | 76–98 | 75–101 | 71–107 |
| 10–14 December 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
83 | 79–101 | 75–102 | 75–108 | 71–108 |
| 3–14 December 2018 | Simple Lógica | 76 | 66–85 | 63–87 | 62–89 | 58–92 |
| 5–14 December 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
104 | 92–113 | 86–113 | 86–118 | 81–119 |
| 10–14 December 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
83 | 76–91 | 73–92 | 73–94 | 69–111 |
| 10–13 December 2018 | IMOP El Confidencial |
78 | 73–86 | 70–86 | 66–90 | 60–93 |
| 10–12 December 2018 | Metroscopia Henneo |
69 | 62–75 | 60–77 | 59–78 | 57–82 |
| 3–11 December 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
99 | 99–106 | 99–111 | 96–111 | 93–117 |
| 3–7 December 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
94 | 87–102 | 85–106 | 83–109 | 77–113 |
| 5 December 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
78 | 73–89 | 72–90 | 71–98 | 67–98 |
| 3–4 December 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
76 | 65–82 | 65–85 | 65–87 | 65–91 |
| 2–14 November 2018 | Simple Lógica | 79 | 72–90 | 69–92 | 66–94 | 62–97 |
| 5–9 November 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
107 | 96–120 | 92–120 | 92–120 | 86–122 |
| 5–9 November 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
96 | 91–104 | 88–108 | 85–111 | 80–115 |
| 5–9 November 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
113 | 88–116 | 88–118 | 88–119 | 84–119 |
| 2–7 November 2018 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
89 | 80–90 | 73–95 | 73–99 | 73–110 |
| 22–30 October 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
88 | 77–95 | 75–99 | 74–100 | 71–106 |
| 20–26 October 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
101 | 92–101 | 92–101 | 92–103 | 78–109 |
| 22–26 October 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
97 | 91–104 | 88–107 | 85–110 | 80–115 |
| 16–18 October 2018 | Metroscopia Henneo |
94 | 85–100 | 82–102 | 81–103 | 78–107 |
| 1–11 October 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
115 | 101–116 | 101–117 | 101–120 | 94–126 |
| 1–9 October 2018 | CIS | 67 | 63–70 | 63–71 | 63–72 | 62–76 |
| 30 September–5 October 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
87 | 87–102 | 87–102 | 87–102 | 82–111 |
| 1–5 October 2018 | Simple Lógica | 95 | 88–104 | 85–107 | 82–110 | 79–116 |
| 1–5 October 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
103 | 95–109 | 95–114 | 92–116 | 85–123 |
| 2 October 2018 | Simple Lógica eldebate.es |
86 | 76–95 | 74–96 | 74–98 | 71–103 |
| 24–28 September 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
99 | 92–106 | 90–109 | 88–111 | 82–116 |
| 17–19 September 2018 | Metroscopia Henneo |
93 | 85–101 | 83–103 | 81–105 | 77–110 |
| 17–19 September 2018 | Instituto DYM El Independiente |
94 | 85–101 | 82–104 | 80–107 | 77–113 |
| 10–14 September 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
96 | 89–102 | 86–104 | 84–106 | 79–112 |
| 6–11 September 2018 | IMOP El Confidencial |
82 | 71–91 | 71–91 | 71–92 | 67–95 |
| 1–11 September 2018 | CIS | 76 | 72–82 | 72–88 | 72–89 | 72–90 |
| 7–9 September 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
98 | 93–112 | 91–115 | 89–116 | 84–120 |
| 3–7 September 2018 | Simple Lógica | 87 | 77–95 | 74–96 | 73–98 | 70–103 |
| 3–7 September 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
102 | 97–111 | 92–116 | 90–117 | 87–124 |
| 3–7 September 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
104 | 93–118 | 93–118 | 93–120 | 92–125 |
| 27–31 August 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
112 | 103–121 | 99–123 | 96–127 | 95–128 |
| 22–30 August 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
96 | 76–98 | 75–98 | 74–101 | 73–113 |
| 1–7 August 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
101 | 93–112 | 93–122 | 85–122 | 85–122 |
| 27 July–3 August 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
86 | 83–98 | 81–104 | 80–104 | 78–106 |
| 1–3 August 2018 | Simple Lógica | 98 | 92–109 | 90–111 | 87–114 | 81–118 |
| 23–27 July 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
110 | 104–120 | 101–121 | 95–122 | 90–125 |
| 23–27 July 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
97 | 90–104 | 87–106 | 85–109 | 80–115 |
| 24–26 July 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
101 | 96–116 | 94–117 | 93–121 | 87–125 |
| 16–25 July 2018 | Metroscopia Henneo |
99 | 94–106 | 92–109 | 91–111 | 89–115 |
| 22–25 July 2018 | Demoscopia y Servicios OKDIARIO |
115 | 103–122 | 99–122 | 97–122 | 93–128 |
| 17–22 July 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
88 | 80–92 | 79–92 | 77–92 | 76–93 |
| 9–13 July 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
94 | 83–100 | 80–102 | 79–103 | 78–108 |
| 9–12 July 2018 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
88 | 79–94 | 77–97 | 75–100 | 73–104 |
| 1–10 July 2018 | CIS | 81 | 74–88 | 73–90 | 73–90 | 70–90 |
| 2–6 July 2018 | Simple Lógica | 71 | 60–77 | 58–79 | 58–80 | 56–86 |
| 2–6 July 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
87 | 86–101 | 86–104 | 83–106 | 80–107 |
| 25–30 June 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
99 | 91–116 | 90–117 | 87–118 | 84–121 |
| 19–22 June 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
78 | 69–83 | 68–85 | 68–85 | 59–90 |
| 18–22 June 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
92 | 81–98 | 79–100 | 79–101 | 75–105 |
| 11–13 June 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
80 | 72–91 | 70–93 | 67–95 | 62–99 |
| 11–12 June 2018 | Instituto DYM El Independiente |
101 | 93–112 | 91–115 | 90–117 | 86–122 |
| 1–9 June 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
103 | 95–117 | 92–120 | 92–120 | 89–123 |
| 4–8 June 2018 | Simple Lógica | 77 | 72–88 | 70–91 | 67–93 | 61–95 |
| 4–8 June 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
96 | 89–103 | 86–105 | 83–108 | 79–114 |
| 7–8 June 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
100 | 92–111 | 90–114 | 88–118 | 86–122 |
| 4–8 June 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
95 | 92–100 | 87–109 | 82–109 | 80–118 |
| 6–7 June 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
67 | 51–70 | 51–73 | 51–75 | 50–78 |
| 26 May–2 June 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
66 | 63–79 | 63–79 | 63–79 | 56–79 |
| 28–29 May 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
94 | 81–100 | 80–102 | 78–105 | 76–108 |
| 26–28 May 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
74 | 62–78 | 61–78 | 59–78 | 58–80 |
| 23–28 May 2018 | IMOP El Confidencial |
76 | 66–79 | 66–80 | 62–80 | 58–83 |
| 17–26 May 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
58 | 58–61 | 57–63 | 57–67 | 52–71 |
| 16–25 May 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
100 | 92–115 | 92–117 | 92–120 | 86–120 |
| 3–10 May 2018 | Simple Lógica | 80 | 74–88 | 72–90 | 70–92 | 65–97 |
| 7–9 May 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
74 | 68–79 | 67–81 | 65–82 | 61–85 |
| 26–30 April 2018 | Celeste-Tel PSOE |
106 | 97–116 | 94–117 | 93–120 | 90–122 |
| 12–18 April 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
79 | 74–86 | 71–89 | 69–93 | 63–99 |
| 9–13 April 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
111 | 103–116 | 98–117 | 96–120 | 90–122 |
| 9–13 April 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
100 | 92–108 | 89–110 | 86–113 | 81–117 |
| 1–10 April 2018 | CIS | 100 | 92–103 | 90–104 | 89–104 | 88–105 |
| 2–9 April 2018 | Simple Lógica | 73 | 62–81 | 60–82 | 59–83 | 56–88 |
| 2–6 April 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
93 | 93–106 | 93–106 | 93–113 | 86–114 |
| 4–5 April 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
78 | 73–86 | 72–88 | 69–89 | 67–94 |
| 19–29 March 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
88 | 78–95 | 78–96 | 77–98 | 77–108 |
| 23–27 March 2018 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
93 | 86–98 | 80–100 | 78–107 | 76–112 |
| 13–16 March 2018 | MyWord Cadena SER |
105 | 97–115 | 94–117 | 92–120 | 86–124 |
| 12–16 March 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
100 | 94–109 | 91–112 | 88–114 | 83–119 |
| 12–14 March 2018 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
92 | 84–106 | 81–106 | 81–107 | 77–114 |
| 1–7 March 2018 | Simple Lógica | 76 | 69–83 | 66–86 | 62–87 | 59–92 |
| 1–7 March 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
111 | 97–121 | 96–121 | 94–121 | 92–122 |
| 2–5 March 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
83 | 77–92 | 75–95 | 74–97 | 71–101 |
| 26 February–2 March 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
119 | 106–122 | 105–125 | 102–126 | 97–128 |
| 26 February–2 March 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
106 | 97–114 | 96–117 | 94–119 | 91–121 |
| 22–27 February 2018 | IMOP El Confidencial |
80 | 74–91 | 74–91 | 74–92 | 72–96 |
| 12–16 February 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
106 | 98–115 | 96–117 | 94–119 | 91–122 |
| 7–14 February 2018 | MyWord Cadena SER |
104 | 97–115 | 94–117 | 92–119 | 87–123 |
| 5–9 February 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
115 | 111–123 | 105–126 | 101–130 | 99–130 |
| 5–8 February 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
85 | 78–93 | 77–96 | 75–99 | 73–103 |
| 1–7 February 2018 | Simple Lógica | 84 | 77–92 | 75–94 | 74–99 | 70–103 |
| 31 January–7 February 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
103 | 92–112 | 91–116 | 89–117 | 87–121 |
| 22–26 January 2018 | Invymark laSexta |
108 | 99–117 | 97–119 | 95–120 | 92–123 |
| 2–14 January 2018 | CIS | 107 | 102–114 | 100–114 | 97–114 | 94–118 |
| 9–11 January 2018 | Metroscopia El País |
93 | 86–103 | 84–105 | 82–106 | 80–109 |
| 8–11 January 2018 | GAD3 ABC |
97 | 90–110 | 85–112 | 84–112 | 82–118 |
| 2–8 January 2018 | Simple Lógica | 87 | 78–96 | 76–99 | 74–101 | 71–104 |
| 2–5 January 2018 | Celeste-Tel eldiario.es |
112 | 112–125 | 112–128 | 110–128 | 106–135 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partido Popular.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 68 | 6% | 92% | |
| 69 | 2% | 85% | |
| 70 | 2% | 83% | |
| 71 | 3% | 81% | |
| 72 | 2% | 77% | |
| 73 | 2% | 75% | |
| 74 | 2% | 73% | |
| 75 | 2% | 71% | |
| 76 | 4% | 69% | |
| 77 | 4% | 65% | |
| 78 | 5% | 61% | |
| 79 | 4% | 56% | |
| 80 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 81 | 4% | 45% | |
| 82 | 6% | 42% | |
| 83 | 4% | 35% | |
| 84 | 3% | 31% | |
| 85 | 3% | 28% | |
| 86 | 2% | 25% | |
| 87 | 1.4% | 22% | |
| 88 | 2% | 21% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 19% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 91 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 16% | |
| 93 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 102 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 104 | 3% | 7% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 115 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |