Opinion Poll by CIS, 2–14 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 26.3% | 25.2–27.5% | 24.8–27.8% | 24.6–28.1% | 24.1–28.6% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 23.1% | 22.0–24.2% | 21.7–24.5% | 21.5–24.8% | 21.0–25.3% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 20.7% | 19.7–21.8% | 19.4–22.1% | 19.2–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 19.0% | 18.0–20.1% | 17.8–20.4% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.1–21.1% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0–3.9% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.6% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 137 | 107 | 102–114 | 100–114 | 97–114 | 94–118 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 87 | 86–92 | 83–93 | 81–93 | 79–94 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 69 | 63–72 | 63–73 | 59–74 | 59–75 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 59 | 56–62 | 54–64 | 52–65 | 48–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 9–15 | 9–15 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–6 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 97 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 2% | 95% | |
| 101 | 2% | 94% | |
| 102 | 17% | 91% | |
| 103 | 3% | 74% | |
| 104 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 105 | 2% | 70% | |
| 106 | 3% | 67% | |
| 107 | 31% | 64% | Median |
| 108 | 2% | 34% | |
| 109 | 7% | 31% | |
| 110 | 9% | 24% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 113 | 3% | 13% | |
| 114 | 9% | 10% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 83 | 2% | 96% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 85 | 2% | 93% | Last Result |
| 86 | 6% | 91% | |
| 87 | 48% | 86% | Median |
| 88 | 9% | 38% | |
| 89 | 9% | 28% | |
| 90 | 2% | 20% | |
| 91 | 2% | 17% | |
| 92 | 8% | 15% | |
| 93 | 5% | 7% | |
| 94 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 3% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 63 | 12% | 97% | |
| 64 | 4% | 85% | |
| 65 | 2% | 81% | |
| 66 | 3% | 79% | |
| 67 | 4% | 76% | |
| 68 | 7% | 72% | |
| 69 | 28% | 64% | Median |
| 70 | 23% | 36% | |
| 71 | 2% | 13% | |
| 72 | 5% | 11% | |
| 73 | 4% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 3% | 96% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 56 | 12% | 92% | |
| 57 | 2% | 79% | |
| 58 | 10% | 77% | |
| 59 | 28% | 67% | Median |
| 60 | 22% | 39% | |
| 61 | 6% | 17% | |
| 62 | 3% | 11% | |
| 63 | 3% | 8% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 65 | 3% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 11 | 8% | 96% | |
| 12 | 7% | 88% | |
| 13 | 20% | 81% | |
| 14 | 29% | 61% | Median |
| 15 | 32% | 32% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 38% | 97% | |
| 6 | 28% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 32% | |
| 8 | 26% | 29% | Last Result |
| 9 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 88% | |
| 5 | 32% | 87% | Last Result |
| 6 | 52% | 55% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 55% | 97% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 13% | 42% | |
| 4 | 28% | 30% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27% | 100% | |
| 1 | 72% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 263 | 100% | 259–266 | 259–267 | 258–271 | 255–274 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 215 | 100% | 208–220 | 207–225 | 207–225 | 204–228 |
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 222 | 194 | 100% | 189–203 | 189–203 | 188–203 | 181–206 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 182 | 90% | 176–185 | 173–187 | 171–189 | 171–192 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 177 | 54% | 170–181 | 169–183 | 168–184 | 167–187 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 176 | 54% | 170–180 | 168–182 | 168–183 | 167–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 173 | 43% | 169–180 | 167–181 | 166–182 | 163–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 165 | 0.6% | 161–172 | 159–174 | 158–175 | 154–177 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 162 | 0.1% | 157–166 | 154–169 | 153–170 | 150–173 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 156 | 0% | 152–159 | 151–161 | 149–165 | 147–168 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 154 | 0% | 150–159 | 146–161 | 146–163 | 143–164 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 152 | 0% | 147–157 | 144–158 | 142–161 | 140–162 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 146 | 0% | 141–152 | 139–154 | 137–155 | 135–157 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 107 | 0% | 102–114 | 100–114 | 97–114 | 94–118 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 87 | 0% | 86–92 | 83–93 | 81–93 | 79–94 |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 256 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 257 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 258 | 2% | 98% | |
| 259 | 21% | 96% | |
| 260 | 7% | 74% | |
| 261 | 3% | 68% | |
| 262 | 6% | 65% | |
| 263 | 26% | 59% | Median |
| 264 | 9% | 33% | |
| 265 | 2% | 24% | |
| 266 | 14% | 22% | |
| 267 | 4% | 8% | |
| 268 | 2% | 5% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 272 | 2% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 274 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 276 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 206 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 207 | 3% | 98% | |
| 208 | 7% | 94% | |
| 209 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 211 | 2% | 86% | |
| 212 | 10% | 84% | |
| 213 | 7% | 74% | |
| 214 | 4% | 67% | |
| 215 | 26% | 63% | Median |
| 216 | 6% | 37% | |
| 217 | 17% | 31% | |
| 218 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 219 | 2% | 12% | |
| 220 | 2% | 11% | |
| 221 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 222 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 225 | 4% | 6% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 228 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 188 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 189 | 21% | 97% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 76% | |
| 191 | 2% | 74% | |
| 192 | 5% | 72% | |
| 193 | 2% | 68% | |
| 194 | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 195 | 12% | 42% | |
| 196 | 5% | 30% | |
| 197 | 5% | 25% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 200 | 3% | 19% | |
| 201 | 2% | 15% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 203 | 11% | 13% | |
| 204 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 171 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 173 | 2% | 96% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 175 | 3% | 93% | |
| 176 | 4% | 90% | Majority |
| 177 | 21% | 86% | |
| 178 | 7% | 66% | |
| 179 | 3% | 59% | |
| 180 | 4% | 55% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 51% | |
| 182 | 29% | 50% | Median |
| 183 | 8% | 21% | |
| 184 | 2% | 13% | |
| 185 | 2% | 12% | |
| 186 | 3% | 9% | |
| 187 | 2% | 6% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 189 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 191 | 2% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 168 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 169 | 4% | 97% | |
| 170 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 171 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 172 | 4% | 88% | |
| 173 | 20% | 84% | |
| 174 | 7% | 64% | |
| 175 | 3% | 57% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 54% | Majority |
| 177 | 37% | 53% | Median |
| 178 | 3% | 16% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 180 | 2% | 12% | |
| 181 | 2% | 10% | |
| 182 | 2% | 9% | |
| 183 | 2% | 6% | |
| 184 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 185 | 2% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 168 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 169 | 1.2% | 93% | Last Result |
| 170 | 3% | 92% | |
| 171 | 4% | 89% | |
| 172 | 19% | 85% | |
| 173 | 8% | 66% | |
| 174 | 2% | 58% | |
| 175 | 2% | 55% | |
| 176 | 28% | 54% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 11% | 25% | |
| 178 | 2% | 14% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 180 | 2% | 12% | |
| 181 | 4% | 10% | |
| 182 | 2% | 6% | |
| 183 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 184 | 0% | 2% | |
| 185 | 2% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 159 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 165 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 167 | 2% | 96% | |
| 168 | 2% | 94% | |
| 169 | 2% | 91% | |
| 170 | 2% | 90% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 172 | 3% | 87% | |
| 173 | 37% | 84% | |
| 174 | 1.1% | 47% | Median |
| 175 | 3% | 46% | |
| 176 | 7% | 43% | Majority |
| 177 | 20% | 36% | |
| 178 | 4% | 16% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 180 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 181 | 4% | 7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 157 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 159 | 2% | 96% | |
| 160 | 3% | 94% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 162 | 3% | 90% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 164 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 165 | 34% | 84% | |
| 166 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 167 | 2% | 46% | |
| 168 | 24% | 44% | |
| 169 | 2% | 20% | |
| 170 | 6% | 18% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 172 | 4% | 11% | |
| 173 | 1.0% | 7% | Last Result |
| 174 | 2% | 6% | |
| 175 | 4% | 4% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 154 | 4% | 97% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 157 | 3% | 92% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 89% | |
| 159 | 2% | 88% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 161 | 3% | 85% | |
| 162 | 38% | 82% | Median |
| 163 | 6% | 44% | |
| 164 | 2% | 38% | |
| 165 | 2% | 36% | |
| 166 | 24% | 34% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 10% | Last Result |
| 168 | 2% | 9% | |
| 169 | 3% | 7% | |
| 170 | 3% | 5% | |
| 171 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 149 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 151 | 3% | 95% | |
| 152 | 10% | 93% | |
| 153 | 3% | 83% | |
| 154 | 2% | 80% | |
| 155 | 8% | 77% | |
| 156 | 28% | 70% | Median |
| 157 | 24% | 42% | |
| 158 | 5% | 18% | |
| 159 | 4% | 14% | |
| 160 | 3% | 9% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 165 | 3% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 146 | 3% | 98% | |
| 147 | 2% | 95% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 149 | 2% | 92% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 151 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 152 | 5% | 88% | |
| 153 | 12% | 84% | |
| 154 | 23% | 72% | Median |
| 155 | 6% | 49% | |
| 156 | 18% | 43% | |
| 157 | 9% | 25% | |
| 158 | 4% | 16% | |
| 159 | 2% | 12% | |
| 160 | 3% | 10% | |
| 161 | 3% | 7% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 164 | 2% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 142 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 144 | 3% | 97% | |
| 145 | 3% | 94% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 147 | 2% | 90% | |
| 148 | 4% | 88% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 150 | 3% | 84% | |
| 151 | 9% | 80% | |
| 152 | 39% | 71% | Median |
| 153 | 7% | 32% | |
| 154 | 7% | 25% | |
| 155 | 5% | 18% | |
| 156 | 3% | 13% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 158 | 5% | 9% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 3% | Last Result |
| 162 | 2% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 139 | 4% | 97% | |
| 140 | 2% | 93% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 142 | 2% | 90% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 145 | 13% | 86% | |
| 146 | 24% | 73% | Median |
| 147 | 23% | 49% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 27% | |
| 149 | 9% | 26% | |
| 150 | 2% | 16% | |
| 151 | 2% | 14% | |
| 152 | 5% | 12% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 154 | 2% | 6% | |
| 155 | 2% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 157 | 2% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 97 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 2% | 95% | |
| 101 | 2% | 94% | |
| 102 | 17% | 91% | |
| 103 | 3% | 74% | |
| 104 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 105 | 2% | 70% | |
| 106 | 3% | 67% | |
| 107 | 31% | 64% | Median |
| 108 | 2% | 34% | |
| 109 | 7% | 31% | |
| 110 | 9% | 24% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 113 | 3% | 13% | |
| 114 | 9% | 10% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 83 | 2% | 96% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 85 | 2% | 93% | Last Result |
| 86 | 6% | 91% | |
| 87 | 48% | 86% | Median |
| 88 | 9% | 38% | |
| 89 | 9% | 28% | |
| 90 | 2% | 20% | |
| 91 | 2% | 17% | |
| 92 | 8% | 15% | |
| 93 | 5% | 7% | |
| 94 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CIS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–14 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2477
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.31%