Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 22–26 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 26.1% | 24.5–27.8% | 24.1–28.2% | 23.7–28.7% | 22.9–29.5% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 23.4% | 21.9–25.0% | 21.5–25.5% | 21.1–25.9% | 20.4–26.7% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 23.0% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.1–25.1% | 20.7–25.5% | 20.0–26.3% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 16.2% | 14.9–17.6% | 14.5–18.0% | 14.2–18.4% | 13.6–19.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 137 | 108 | 99–117 | 97–119 | 95–120 | 92–123 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 79 | 74–90 | 72–93 | 71–94 | 70–96 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 88 | 84–95 | 82–98 | 79–100 | 76–105 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 47 | 39–56 | 38–58 | 37–59 | 35–61 |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 95% | |
| 98 | 2% | 93% | |
| 99 | 4% | 91% | |
| 100 | 2% | 87% | |
| 101 | 3% | 85% | |
| 102 | 5% | 82% | |
| 103 | 6% | 77% | |
| 104 | 4% | 71% | |
| 105 | 5% | 67% | |
| 106 | 6% | 62% | |
| 107 | 3% | 56% | |
| 108 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 109 | 7% | 46% | |
| 110 | 6% | 40% | |
| 111 | 5% | 34% | |
| 112 | 5% | 29% | |
| 113 | 3% | 25% | |
| 114 | 6% | 22% | |
| 115 | 2% | 16% | |
| 116 | 3% | 14% | |
| 117 | 3% | 12% | |
| 118 | 3% | 9% | |
| 119 | 2% | 6% | |
| 120 | 3% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 2% | 92% | |
| 74 | 4% | 90% | |
| 75 | 11% | 87% | |
| 76 | 9% | 75% | |
| 77 | 9% | 66% | |
| 78 | 4% | 57% | |
| 79 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 80 | 2% | 50% | |
| 81 | 2% | 48% | |
| 82 | 2% | 46% | |
| 83 | 3% | 44% | |
| 84 | 5% | 42% | |
| 85 | 7% | 36% | |
| 86 | 6% | 29% | |
| 87 | 6% | 23% | |
| 88 | 5% | 17% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 90 | 3% | 11% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 93 | 2% | 6% | |
| 94 | 3% | 4% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 83 | 3% | 94% | |
| 84 | 4% | 91% | |
| 85 | 7% | 87% | Last Result |
| 86 | 14% | 80% | |
| 87 | 12% | 66% | |
| 88 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 89 | 7% | 46% | |
| 90 | 9% | 39% | |
| 91 | 6% | 30% | |
| 92 | 4% | 24% | |
| 93 | 4% | 19% | |
| 94 | 3% | 15% | |
| 95 | 3% | 12% | |
| 96 | 2% | 9% | |
| 97 | 2% | 7% | |
| 98 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 38 | 2% | 97% | |
| 39 | 11% | 95% | |
| 40 | 5% | 83% | |
| 41 | 8% | 79% | |
| 42 | 5% | 71% | |
| 43 | 4% | 65% | |
| 44 | 3% | 61% | |
| 45 | 5% | 59% | |
| 46 | 4% | 54% | |
| 47 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 48 | 5% | 46% | |
| 49 | 7% | 41% | |
| 50 | 3% | 34% | |
| 51 | 5% | 31% | |
| 52 | 4% | 26% | |
| 53 | 4% | 22% | |
| 54 | 3% | 19% | |
| 55 | 4% | 15% | |
| 56 | 4% | 11% | |
| 57 | 2% | 7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 254 | 278 | 100% | 269–285 | 267–286 | 266–286 | 263–288 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 216 | 100% | 207–226 | 205–228 | 204–230 | 200–233 |
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 222 | 196 | 99.9% | 188–206 | 186–208 | 184–209 | 181–213 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 189 | 96% | 179–198 | 176–200 | 175–201 | 171–204 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 117 | 169 | 21% | 161–180 | 159–182 | 158–187 | 153–190 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 135 | 0% | 126–146 | 124–148 | 122–150 | 119–154 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 108 | 0% | 99–117 | 97–119 | 95–120 | 92–123 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 88 | 0% | 84–95 | 82–98 | 79–100 | 76–105 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 262 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 263 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 264 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 265 | 0.8% | 98.7% | |
| 266 | 2% | 98% | |
| 267 | 2% | 96% | |
| 268 | 3% | 94% | |
| 269 | 4% | 91% | |
| 270 | 4% | 87% | |
| 271 | 3% | 84% | |
| 272 | 4% | 81% | |
| 273 | 4% | 76% | |
| 274 | 5% | 72% | |
| 275 | 5% | 67% | Median |
| 276 | 5% | 62% | |
| 277 | 5% | 57% | |
| 278 | 3% | 51% | |
| 279 | 6% | 48% | |
| 280 | 4% | 42% | |
| 281 | 4% | 38% | |
| 282 | 5% | 35% | |
| 283 | 6% | 29% | |
| 284 | 7% | 23% | |
| 285 | 9% | 16% | |
| 286 | 5% | 7% | |
| 287 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 288 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 203 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 204 | 3% | 98% | |
| 205 | 2% | 95% | |
| 206 | 3% | 94% | |
| 207 | 3% | 91% | |
| 208 | 2% | 88% | |
| 209 | 2% | 86% | |
| 210 | 5% | 83% | |
| 211 | 3% | 78% | |
| 212 | 3% | 75% | |
| 213 | 6% | 72% | |
| 214 | 4% | 66% | Median |
| 215 | 7% | 62% | |
| 216 | 7% | 55% | |
| 217 | 4% | 49% | |
| 218 | 4% | 45% | |
| 219 | 6% | 41% | |
| 220 | 5% | 35% | |
| 221 | 3% | 30% | |
| 222 | 5% | 27% | |
| 223 | 4% | 22% | |
| 224 | 3% | 17% | |
| 225 | 2% | 15% | |
| 226 | 4% | 12% | |
| 227 | 2% | 8% | |
| 228 | 2% | 7% | |
| 229 | 2% | 4% | |
| 230 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 231 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 232 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 233 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 184 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 187 | 3% | 95% | |
| 188 | 4% | 92% | |
| 189 | 3% | 88% | |
| 190 | 3% | 85% | |
| 191 | 5% | 82% | |
| 192 | 5% | 77% | |
| 193 | 4% | 71% | |
| 194 | 7% | 67% | |
| 195 | 7% | 60% | |
| 196 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 197 | 4% | 46% | |
| 198 | 6% | 43% | |
| 199 | 4% | 37% | |
| 200 | 5% | 33% | |
| 201 | 5% | 28% | |
| 202 | 2% | 23% | |
| 203 | 3% | 20% | |
| 204 | 3% | 17% | |
| 205 | 3% | 14% | |
| 206 | 2% | 11% | |
| 207 | 3% | 9% | |
| 208 | 2% | 6% | |
| 209 | 2% | 4% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 175 | 2% | 98% | |
| 176 | 1.4% | 96% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 95% | |
| 178 | 2% | 93% | |
| 179 | 3% | 90% | |
| 180 | 2% | 87% | |
| 181 | 3% | 85% | |
| 182 | 3% | 82% | |
| 183 | 4% | 79% | |
| 184 | 3% | 75% | |
| 185 | 4% | 72% | |
| 186 | 6% | 68% | |
| 187 | 5% | 62% | Median |
| 188 | 5% | 57% | |
| 189 | 5% | 53% | |
| 190 | 5% | 48% | |
| 191 | 4% | 43% | |
| 192 | 5% | 40% | |
| 193 | 6% | 35% | |
| 194 | 5% | 29% | |
| 195 | 4% | 23% | |
| 196 | 5% | 20% | |
| 197 | 3% | 15% | |
| 198 | 4% | 12% | |
| 199 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 200 | 3% | 6% | |
| 201 | 2% | 4% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 159 | 2% | 96% | |
| 160 | 2% | 94% | |
| 161 | 5% | 92% | |
| 162 | 3% | 88% | |
| 163 | 4% | 84% | |
| 164 | 6% | 81% | |
| 165 | 5% | 75% | |
| 166 | 5% | 69% | |
| 167 | 6% | 64% | Median |
| 168 | 5% | 58% | |
| 169 | 5% | 54% | |
| 170 | 5% | 48% | |
| 171 | 7% | 44% | |
| 172 | 3% | 37% | |
| 173 | 5% | 34% | |
| 174 | 3% | 29% | |
| 175 | 4% | 25% | |
| 176 | 2% | 21% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 19% | |
| 178 | 3% | 17% | |
| 179 | 3% | 14% | |
| 180 | 2% | 10% | |
| 181 | 2% | 8% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 183 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 97% | |
| 124 | 3% | 96% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 126 | 3% | 91% | |
| 127 | 2% | 88% | |
| 128 | 4% | 85% | |
| 129 | 4% | 81% | |
| 130 | 5% | 77% | |
| 131 | 6% | 73% | |
| 132 | 6% | 67% | |
| 133 | 4% | 61% | |
| 134 | 4% | 58% | |
| 135 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 136 | 4% | 48% | |
| 137 | 4% | 44% | |
| 138 | 5% | 40% | |
| 139 | 6% | 35% | |
| 140 | 3% | 29% | |
| 141 | 3% | 27% | |
| 142 | 4% | 23% | |
| 143 | 3% | 19% | |
| 144 | 2% | 16% | |
| 145 | 3% | 14% | |
| 146 | 2% | 11% | |
| 147 | 2% | 9% | |
| 148 | 2% | 7% | |
| 149 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 150 | 2% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 3% | 95% | |
| 98 | 2% | 93% | |
| 99 | 4% | 91% | |
| 100 | 2% | 87% | |
| 101 | 3% | 85% | |
| 102 | 5% | 82% | |
| 103 | 6% | 77% | |
| 104 | 4% | 71% | |
| 105 | 5% | 67% | |
| 106 | 6% | 62% | |
| 107 | 3% | 56% | |
| 108 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 109 | 7% | 46% | |
| 110 | 6% | 40% | |
| 111 | 5% | 34% | |
| 112 | 5% | 29% | |
| 113 | 3% | 25% | |
| 114 | 6% | 22% | |
| 115 | 2% | 16% | |
| 116 | 3% | 14% | |
| 117 | 3% | 12% | |
| 118 | 3% | 9% | |
| 119 | 2% | 6% | |
| 120 | 3% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 83 | 3% | 94% | |
| 84 | 4% | 91% | |
| 85 | 7% | 87% | Last Result |
| 86 | 14% | 80% | |
| 87 | 12% | 66% | |
| 88 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 89 | 7% | 46% | |
| 90 | 9% | 39% | |
| 91 | 6% | 30% | |
| 92 | 4% | 24% | |
| 93 | 4% | 19% | |
| 94 | 3% | 15% | |
| 95 | 3% | 12% | |
| 96 | 2% | 9% | |
| 97 | 2% | 7% | |
| 98 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Invymark
- Commissioner(s): laSexta
- Fieldwork period: 22–26 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.59%