Opinion Poll by Simple Lógica, 1–7 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 28.7% 27.0–30.6% 26.5–31.1% 26.1–31.5% 25.3–32.4%
Partido Popular 33.0% 22.2% 20.6–23.9% 20.1–24.3% 19.8–24.8% 19.0–25.6%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 21.4% 19.9–23.1% 19.4–23.6% 19.0–24.0% 18.3–24.8%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0% 14.9–19.4% 14.2–20.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 109 100–116 96–118 94–120 89–123
Partido Popular 137 84 77–92 75–94 74–99 70–103
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 82 75–88 73–89 71–92 66–97
Unidos Podemos 71 50 40–59 39–61 39–63 37–67

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.2%  
92 0.4% 98.8%  
93 0.6% 98%  
94 0.9% 98%  
95 0.9% 97%  
96 1.2% 96%  
97 2% 95%  
98 1.3% 93%  
99 2% 92%  
100 2% 90%  
101 2% 88%  
102 3% 85%  
103 3% 83%  
104 5% 80%  
105 6% 75%  
106 5% 69%  
107 6% 64%  
108 7% 58%  
109 7% 51% Median
110 6% 45%  
111 6% 39%  
112 5% 33%  
113 5% 28%  
114 4% 24%  
115 6% 19%  
116 4% 13%  
117 2% 9%  
118 3% 7%  
119 1.4% 4%  
120 1.3% 3%  
121 0.8% 2%  
122 0.3% 1.0%  
123 0.2% 0.6%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.2% 99.5%  
71 0.2% 99.4%  
72 0.3% 99.2%  
73 0.5% 98.9%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 3% 91%  
78 5% 89%  
79 3% 83%  
80 4% 80%  
81 10% 76%  
82 8% 66%  
83 5% 58%  
84 5% 53% Median
85 5% 48%  
86 6% 43%  
87 4% 37%  
88 4% 33%  
89 4% 29%  
90 6% 25%  
91 7% 19%  
92 4% 13%  
93 3% 9%  
94 0.6% 5%  
95 0.1% 5%  
96 0.1% 5%  
97 0.5% 5%  
98 0.5% 4%  
99 1.2% 4%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.6% 2%  
102 0.3% 0.9%  
103 0.3% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 0.2% 99.5%  
67 0.2% 99.4%  
68 0.1% 99.1%  
69 0.5% 99.0%  
70 0.5% 98%  
71 1.2% 98%  
72 1.2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 5% 92%  
76 3% 86%  
77 3% 83%  
78 8% 80%  
79 10% 72%  
80 6% 63%  
81 5% 56%  
82 4% 51% Median
83 8% 47%  
84 7% 39%  
85 5% 32% Last Result
86 6% 27%  
87 8% 21%  
88 5% 13%  
89 3% 8%  
90 1.3% 5%  
91 0.7% 4%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.4% 2%  
95 0.3% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.8%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.7%  
37 0.2% 99.5%  
38 0.3% 99.3%  
39 9% 99.0%  
40 3% 90%  
41 3% 87%  
42 4% 84%  
43 3% 80%  
44 4% 77%  
45 4% 73%  
46 6% 69%  
47 3% 63%  
48 5% 60%  
49 4% 55%  
50 3% 51% Median
51 5% 48%  
52 7% 43%  
53 5% 36%  
54 6% 31%  
55 5% 25%  
56 4% 21%  
57 2% 17%  
58 3% 14%  
59 1.4% 11%  
60 2% 9%  
61 3% 7%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.3%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1% Last Result
72 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 254 275 100% 265–284 263–285 261–285 257–286
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 188 240 100% 232–248 230–250 225–251 221–255
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular 169 193 99.1% 183–203 181–204 178–206 174–210
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 117 191 97% 181–199 178–200 175–202 169–206
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 222 167 12% 157–176 155–180 153–182 149–187
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 131 0% 121–141 119–144 118–147 113–151
Partido Popular 137 84 0% 77–92 75–94 74–99 70–103
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 82 0% 75–88 73–89 71–92 66–97

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9% Last Result
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.2% 99.8%  
257 0.3% 99.6%  
258 0.4% 99.3%  
259 0.5% 98.9%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 0.9% 98%  
262 1.0% 97%  
263 2% 96%  
264 3% 94%  
265 1.3% 91%  
266 2% 90%  
267 3% 88%  
268 3% 84%  
269 4% 81%  
270 5% 77%  
271 4% 72%  
272 6% 68%  
273 7% 62%  
274 4% 55%  
275 3% 51% Median
276 4% 47%  
277 5% 43%  
278 4% 39%  
279 5% 35%  
280 5% 30%  
281 5% 25%  
282 4% 20%  
283 4% 16%  
284 3% 12%  
285 7% 9%  
286 2% 2%  
287 0.2% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0.2% 99.8%  
221 0.3% 99.6%  
222 0.3% 99.3%  
223 0.7% 99.0%  
224 0.8% 98%  
225 0.8% 98%  
226 0.7% 97%  
227 0.5% 96%  
228 0.2% 96%  
229 0.2% 95%  
230 0.2% 95%  
231 3% 95%  
232 5% 92%  
233 6% 88%  
234 5% 82%  
235 4% 77%  
236 5% 72%  
237 4% 67%  
238 5% 63%  
239 4% 58%  
240 4% 53%  
241 4% 50% Median
242 8% 45%  
243 6% 37%  
244 8% 31%  
245 5% 23%  
246 2% 18%  
247 5% 16%  
248 2% 10%  
249 2% 8%  
250 3% 6%  
251 1.4% 3%  
252 0.5% 2%  
253 0.3% 1.0%  
254 0.2% 0.8%  
255 0.2% 0.6%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0.1% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100% Last Result
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.2% 99.6%  
175 0.3% 99.4%  
176 0.5% 99.1% Majority
177 0.6% 98.6%  
178 0.8% 98%  
179 1.1% 97%  
180 1.0% 96%  
181 1.3% 95%  
182 2% 94%  
183 2% 92%  
184 3% 90%  
185 3% 86%  
186 5% 83%  
187 4% 78%  
188 3% 74%  
189 4% 71%  
190 4% 67%  
191 5% 62%  
192 4% 58%  
193 5% 54% Median
194 5% 49%  
195 4% 44%  
196 4% 40%  
197 4% 36%  
198 5% 32%  
199 4% 27%  
200 6% 23%  
201 2% 18%  
202 5% 15%  
203 3% 10%  
204 3% 7%  
205 2% 4%  
206 0.7% 3%  
207 0.7% 2%  
208 0.5% 1.2%  
209 0.1% 0.8%  
210 0.2% 0.6%  
211 0.1% 0.4%  
212 0% 0.3%  
213 0.1% 0.2%  
214 0.1% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.2% 99.8%  
169 0.2% 99.6%  
170 0.2% 99.5%  
171 0.3% 99.3%  
172 0.2% 99.0%  
173 0.3% 98.8%  
174 0.4% 98%  
175 0.7% 98%  
176 0.8% 97% Majority
177 0.7% 97%  
178 1.3% 96%  
179 1.1% 94%  
180 3% 93%  
181 2% 91%  
182 2% 88%  
183 3% 86%  
184 3% 83%  
185 5% 81%  
186 5% 76%  
187 7% 71%  
188 3% 64%  
189 4% 61%  
190 5% 57%  
191 6% 53% Median
192 9% 46%  
193 6% 37%  
194 4% 31%  
195 6% 27%  
196 4% 21%  
197 4% 17%  
198 3% 14%  
199 4% 11%  
200 2% 7%  
201 1.1% 5%  
202 2% 4%  
203 0.7% 2%  
204 0.5% 2%  
205 0.4% 1.0%  
206 0.1% 0.6%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0.1% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  

Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0.1% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.6%  
150 0.3% 99.4%  
151 0.4% 99.1%  
152 0.8% 98.7%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 1.3% 97%  
155 2% 96%  
156 2% 93%  
157 3% 92%  
158 3% 89%  
159 5% 86%  
160 4% 80%  
161 5% 77%  
162 5% 72%  
163 4% 67%  
164 4% 63%  
165 5% 59%  
166 4% 54% Median
167 7% 50%  
168 6% 43%  
169 4% 37%  
170 5% 33%  
171 5% 28%  
172 3% 22%  
173 3% 19%  
174 2% 17%  
175 3% 15%  
176 2% 12% Majority
177 2% 10%  
178 1.2% 8%  
179 2% 7%  
180 2% 5%  
181 0.8% 4%  
182 0.5% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.3%  
186 0.4% 1.0%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0.1% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.7%  
114 0.2% 99.4%  
115 0.3% 99.3%  
116 0.8% 98.9%  
117 0.4% 98%  
118 2% 98%  
119 1.5% 96%  
120 3% 95%  
121 3% 92%  
122 4% 89%  
123 2% 85%  
124 5% 83%  
125 4% 77%  
126 4% 73%  
127 4% 69%  
128 3% 65%  
129 4% 62%  
130 5% 58%  
131 3% 53%  
132 5% 50% Median
133 4% 45%  
134 4% 40%  
135 4% 36%  
136 4% 32%  
137 2% 27%  
138 4% 25%  
139 5% 21%  
140 3% 16%  
141 3% 13%  
142 3% 10%  
143 1.4% 7%  
144 1.3% 6%  
145 1.0% 5%  
146 1.0% 4%  
147 0.8% 3%  
148 0.6% 2%  
149 0.5% 1.4%  
150 0.3% 0.9%  
151 0.2% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1% Last Result
157 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.2% 99.5%  
71 0.2% 99.4%  
72 0.3% 99.2%  
73 0.5% 98.9%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 3% 91%  
78 5% 89%  
79 3% 83%  
80 4% 80%  
81 10% 76%  
82 8% 66%  
83 5% 58%  
84 5% 53% Median
85 5% 48%  
86 6% 43%  
87 4% 37%  
88 4% 33%  
89 4% 29%  
90 6% 25%  
91 7% 19%  
92 4% 13%  
93 3% 9%  
94 0.6% 5%  
95 0.1% 5%  
96 0.1% 5%  
97 0.5% 5%  
98 0.5% 4%  
99 1.2% 4%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.6% 2%  
102 0.3% 0.9%  
103 0.3% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 0.2% 99.5%  
67 0.2% 99.4%  
68 0.1% 99.1%  
69 0.5% 99.0%  
70 0.5% 98%  
71 1.2% 98%  
72 1.2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 5% 92%  
76 3% 86%  
77 3% 83%  
78 8% 80%  
79 10% 72%  
80 6% 63%  
81 5% 56%  
82 4% 51% Median
83 8% 47%  
84 7% 39%  
85 5% 32% Last Result
86 6% 27%  
87 8% 21%  
88 5% 13%  
89 3% 8%  
90 1.3% 5%  
91 0.7% 4%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.4% 2%  
95 0.3% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.8%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations