Opinion Poll by Metroscopia for El País, 5–8 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 28.3% | 26.8–29.9% | 26.3–30.4% | 25.9–30.8% | 25.2–31.6% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 21.9% | 20.5–23.4% | 20.1–23.8% | 19.7–24.2% | 19.1–24.9% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 20.1% | 18.8–21.6% | 18.4–22.0% | 18.1–22.4% | 17.4–23.1% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 16.8% | 15.5–18.2% | 15.2–18.6% | 14.9–18.9% | 14.3–19.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 110 | 102–117 | 99–119 | 96–121 | 91–123 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 85 | 78–93 | 77–96 | 75–99 | 73–103 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 78 | 72–85 | 70–87 | 68–88 | 63–90 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 51 | 41–60 | 40–61 | 39–63 | 38–67 |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 100 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 101 | 2% | 93% | |
| 102 | 3% | 91% | |
| 103 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 104 | 4% | 87% | |
| 105 | 4% | 82% | |
| 106 | 4% | 78% | |
| 107 | 7% | 75% | |
| 108 | 10% | 68% | |
| 109 | 7% | 58% | |
| 110 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 111 | 7% | 44% | |
| 112 | 5% | 37% | |
| 113 | 5% | 32% | |
| 114 | 6% | 28% | |
| 115 | 6% | 21% | |
| 116 | 4% | 15% | |
| 117 | 2% | 12% | |
| 118 | 4% | 9% | |
| 119 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 123 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 76 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 77 | 2% | 96% | |
| 78 | 4% | 94% | |
| 79 | 4% | 90% | |
| 80 | 5% | 86% | |
| 81 | 7% | 81% | |
| 82 | 8% | 74% | |
| 83 | 6% | 66% | |
| 84 | 5% | 60% | |
| 85 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 86 | 6% | 49% | |
| 87 | 7% | 42% | |
| 88 | 5% | 35% | |
| 89 | 6% | 30% | |
| 90 | 4% | 24% | |
| 91 | 4% | 19% | |
| 92 | 3% | 15% | |
| 93 | 2% | 12% | |
| 94 | 2% | 10% | |
| 95 | 2% | 8% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 97 | 2% | 5% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 71 | 3% | 94% | |
| 72 | 3% | 91% | |
| 73 | 3% | 88% | |
| 74 | 9% | 85% | |
| 75 | 4% | 75% | |
| 76 | 7% | 71% | |
| 77 | 6% | 64% | |
| 78 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 79 | 11% | 48% | |
| 80 | 10% | 38% | |
| 81 | 5% | 28% | |
| 82 | 4% | 22% | |
| 83 | 3% | 19% | |
| 84 | 3% | 15% | |
| 85 | 3% | 12% | Last Result |
| 86 | 3% | 9% | |
| 87 | 3% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 4% | 96% | |
| 41 | 4% | 92% | |
| 42 | 4% | 88% | |
| 43 | 3% | 84% | |
| 44 | 4% | 81% | |
| 45 | 3% | 77% | |
| 46 | 5% | 74% | |
| 47 | 3% | 69% | |
| 48 | 4% | 66% | |
| 49 | 4% | 62% | |
| 50 | 5% | 58% | |
| 51 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 52 | 7% | 48% | |
| 53 | 6% | 42% | |
| 54 | 6% | 36% | |
| 55 | 5% | 30% | |
| 56 | 5% | 25% | |
| 57 | 3% | 19% | |
| 58 | 4% | 16% | |
| 59 | 2% | 12% | |
| 60 | 3% | 10% | |
| 61 | 3% | 7% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 254 | 273 | 100% | 265–282 | 263–283 | 261–284 | 257–285 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 239 | 100% | 230–246 | 227–247 | 225–249 | 221–252 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular | 169 | 196 | 99.8% | 186–204 | 184–205 | 181–208 | 177–212 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 117 | 188 | 96% | 179–196 | 176–198 | 174–199 | 169–202 |
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 222 | 163 | 5% | 155–173 | 153–176 | 152–179 | 148–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 128 | 0% | 119–139 | 118–141 | 116–143 | 111–147 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 85 | 0% | 78–93 | 77–96 | 75–99 | 73–103 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 78 | 0% | 72–85 | 70–87 | 68–88 | 63–90 |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 259 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 260 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 261 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 262 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 263 | 3% | 96% | |
| 264 | 3% | 93% | |
| 265 | 2% | 90% | |
| 266 | 4% | 88% | |
| 267 | 3% | 84% | |
| 268 | 5% | 81% | |
| 269 | 5% | 76% | |
| 270 | 6% | 70% | |
| 271 | 5% | 65% | |
| 272 | 6% | 60% | |
| 273 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 274 | 5% | 48% | |
| 275 | 4% | 43% | |
| 276 | 4% | 39% | |
| 277 | 3% | 34% | |
| 278 | 6% | 31% | |
| 279 | 4% | 25% | |
| 280 | 4% | 21% | |
| 281 | 4% | 18% | |
| 282 | 5% | 13% | |
| 283 | 4% | 9% | |
| 284 | 3% | 5% | |
| 285 | 2% | 2% | |
| 286 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 225 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 226 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 227 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 228 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 229 | 2% | 94% | |
| 230 | 2% | 92% | |
| 231 | 2% | 90% | |
| 232 | 4% | 88% | |
| 233 | 5% | 84% | |
| 234 | 5% | 79% | |
| 235 | 6% | 74% | |
| 236 | 5% | 68% | |
| 237 | 6% | 63% | |
| 238 | 6% | 57% | |
| 239 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 240 | 5% | 45% | |
| 241 | 6% | 40% | |
| 242 | 8% | 34% | |
| 243 | 5% | 26% | |
| 244 | 6% | 21% | |
| 245 | 5% | 15% | |
| 246 | 3% | 10% | |
| 247 | 3% | 7% | |
| 248 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 249 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 250 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 184 | 2% | 95% | |
| 185 | 3% | 93% | |
| 186 | 3% | 91% | |
| 187 | 3% | 87% | |
| 188 | 3% | 84% | |
| 189 | 4% | 81% | |
| 190 | 3% | 77% | |
| 191 | 4% | 73% | |
| 192 | 4% | 69% | |
| 193 | 4% | 65% | |
| 194 | 4% | 60% | |
| 195 | 6% | 57% | Median |
| 196 | 5% | 51% | |
| 197 | 5% | 46% | |
| 198 | 4% | 40% | |
| 199 | 6% | 36% | |
| 200 | 5% | 30% | |
| 201 | 4% | 25% | |
| 202 | 5% | 20% | |
| 203 | 4% | 15% | |
| 204 | 3% | 11% | |
| 205 | 3% | 8% | |
| 206 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 207 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 208 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 96% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 95% | |
| 178 | 2% | 93% | |
| 179 | 2% | 92% | |
| 180 | 2% | 89% | |
| 181 | 3% | 87% | |
| 182 | 4% | 84% | |
| 183 | 4% | 80% | |
| 184 | 6% | 76% | |
| 185 | 7% | 70% | |
| 186 | 5% | 64% | |
| 187 | 7% | 59% | |
| 188 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 189 | 5% | 47% | |
| 190 | 4% | 41% | |
| 191 | 6% | 37% | |
| 192 | 6% | 31% | |
| 193 | 5% | 24% | |
| 194 | 5% | 19% | |
| 195 | 3% | 14% | |
| 196 | 2% | 11% | |
| 197 | 3% | 9% | |
| 198 | 2% | 6% | |
| 199 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 200 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 153 | 2% | 97% | |
| 154 | 2% | 95% | |
| 155 | 3% | 93% | |
| 156 | 3% | 90% | |
| 157 | 6% | 87% | |
| 158 | 4% | 81% | |
| 159 | 6% | 77% | |
| 160 | 7% | 71% | |
| 161 | 6% | 64% | |
| 162 | 5% | 58% | |
| 163 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 164 | 4% | 49% | |
| 165 | 6% | 45% | |
| 166 | 5% | 39% | |
| 167 | 4% | 34% | |
| 168 | 6% | 29% | |
| 169 | 5% | 24% | |
| 170 | 3% | 19% | |
| 171 | 3% | 15% | |
| 172 | 2% | 13% | |
| 173 | 2% | 11% | |
| 174 | 2% | 9% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 176 | 0.9% | 5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 116 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 3% | 95% | |
| 119 | 3% | 93% | |
| 120 | 3% | 90% | |
| 121 | 4% | 86% | |
| 122 | 4% | 82% | |
| 123 | 4% | 78% | |
| 124 | 5% | 74% | |
| 125 | 6% | 69% | |
| 126 | 4% | 63% | |
| 127 | 5% | 59% | |
| 128 | 5% | 54% | |
| 129 | 6% | 49% | Median |
| 130 | 4% | 44% | |
| 131 | 4% | 40% | |
| 132 | 4% | 36% | |
| 133 | 4% | 32% | |
| 134 | 3% | 27% | |
| 135 | 4% | 24% | |
| 136 | 3% | 20% | |
| 137 | 3% | 17% | |
| 138 | 3% | 13% | |
| 139 | 3% | 11% | |
| 140 | 2% | 8% | |
| 141 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 76 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 77 | 2% | 96% | |
| 78 | 4% | 94% | |
| 79 | 4% | 90% | |
| 80 | 5% | 86% | |
| 81 | 7% | 81% | |
| 82 | 8% | 74% | |
| 83 | 6% | 66% | |
| 84 | 5% | 60% | |
| 85 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 86 | 6% | 49% | |
| 87 | 7% | 42% | |
| 88 | 5% | 35% | |
| 89 | 6% | 30% | |
| 90 | 4% | 24% | |
| 91 | 4% | 19% | |
| 92 | 3% | 15% | |
| 93 | 2% | 12% | |
| 94 | 2% | 10% | |
| 95 | 2% | 8% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 97 | 2% | 5% | |
| 98 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 71 | 3% | 94% | |
| 72 | 3% | 91% | |
| 73 | 3% | 88% | |
| 74 | 9% | 85% | |
| 75 | 4% | 75% | |
| 76 | 7% | 71% | |
| 77 | 6% | 64% | |
| 78 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 79 | 11% | 48% | |
| 80 | 10% | 38% | |
| 81 | 5% | 28% | |
| 82 | 4% | 22% | |
| 83 | 3% | 19% | |
| 84 | 3% | 15% | |
| 85 | 3% | 12% | Last Result |
| 86 | 3% | 9% | |
| 87 | 3% | 6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Metroscopia
- Commissioner(s): El País
- Fieldwork period: 5–8 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1321
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.62%