Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 26 February–2 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 27.9% | 26.1–29.8% | 25.6–30.3% | 25.2–30.8% | 24.4–31.7% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.4–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 22.1% | 20.5–23.9% | 20.0–24.4% | 19.6–24.8% | 18.9–25.6% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–19.0% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 137 | 119 | 106–122 | 105–125 | 102–126 | 97–128 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 90 | 87–96 | 85–99 | 84–103 | 80–111 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 74 | 70–78 | 66–79 | 65–81 | 62–88 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 40 | 38–48 | 37–52 | 36–56 | 34–59 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 11 | 8–14 | 7–14 | 7–14 | 7–15 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 4 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 2–10 | 1–10 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–6 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–10 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 3 | 2–4 | 1–6 | 1–7 | 0–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 105 | 6% | 96% | |
| 106 | 2% | 90% | |
| 107 | 2% | 88% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 114 | 2% | 82% | |
| 115 | 3% | 80% | |
| 116 | 2% | 77% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 118 | 8% | 74% | |
| 119 | 27% | 67% | Median |
| 120 | 0.6% | 39% | |
| 121 | 27% | 39% | |
| 122 | 2% | 12% | |
| 123 | 2% | 10% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 125 | 5% | 8% | |
| 126 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 86 | 3% | 94% | |
| 87 | 5% | 91% | |
| 88 | 29% | 86% | |
| 89 | 3% | 57% | |
| 90 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 91 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 92 | 16% | 46% | |
| 93 | 3% | 30% | |
| 94 | 16% | 27% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 96 | 2% | 10% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 99 | 3% | 6% | |
| 100 | 0% | 4% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 110 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 2% | 97% | |
| 67 | 2% | 95% | |
| 68 | 2% | 93% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 71 | 3% | 89% | |
| 72 | 8% | 86% | |
| 73 | 18% | 78% | |
| 74 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 75 | 2% | 24% | |
| 76 | 7% | 22% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 78 | 9% | 15% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 2% | 96% | |
| 38 | 5% | 93% | |
| 39 | 37% | 89% | |
| 40 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 41 | 0.9% | 42% | |
| 42 | 4% | 41% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 37% | |
| 44 | 2% | 37% | |
| 45 | 4% | 35% | |
| 46 | 15% | 32% | |
| 47 | 2% | 16% | |
| 48 | 7% | 14% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 52 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 6% | 94% | |
| 9 | 21% | 88% | Last Result |
| 10 | 8% | 67% | |
| 11 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 12 | 3% | 47% | |
| 13 | 32% | 44% | |
| 14 | 9% | 11% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 4% | 97% | |
| 4 | 44% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 12% | 49% | |
| 6 | 23% | 37% | |
| 7 | 3% | 14% | |
| 8 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 9 | 2% | 6% | |
| 10 | 4% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 36% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 62% | |
| 5 | 3% | 61% | Last Result |
| 6 | 49% | 59% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 10% | |
| 8 | 6% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 13% | 94% | Last Result |
| 3 | 61% | 80% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 19% | |
| 5 | 2% | 7% | |
| 6 | 3% | 5% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 59% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 31% | 35% | |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 283 | 100% | 273–287 | 273–288 | 268–288 | 264–291 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 207 | 100% | 200–216 | 197–217 | 195–221 | 193–229 |
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 222 | 209 | 100% | 196–213 | 195–215 | 195–218 | 187–222 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 194 | 98% | 184–197 | 180–199 | 177–204 | 172–204 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 193 | 97% | 183–195 | 179–198 | 175–203 | 171–203 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 165 | 3% | 158–170 | 157–174 | 155–178 | 151–185 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 156 | 2% | 153–166 | 151–170 | 146–173 | 146–178 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 150 | 0% | 144–157 | 141–161 | 137–164 | 136–170 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 146 | 0% | 141–155 | 139–160 | 138–162 | 134–168 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 139 | 0% | 136–150 | 133–153 | 131–155 | 130–162 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 133 | 0% | 127–141 | 123–145 | 122–147 | 120–154 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 119 | 0% | 106–122 | 105–125 | 102–126 | 97–128 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 90 | 0% | 87–96 | 85–99 | 84–103 | 80–111 |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 261 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 267 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 268 | 2% | 98% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 270 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 272 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 273 | 7% | 95% | |
| 274 | 2% | 88% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 276 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 277 | 3% | 85% | |
| 278 | 0.9% | 83% | |
| 279 | 2% | 82% | |
| 280 | 3% | 79% | |
| 281 | 3% | 77% | |
| 282 | 3% | 74% | |
| 283 | 27% | 70% | Median |
| 284 | 17% | 43% | |
| 285 | 3% | 26% | |
| 286 | 2% | 23% | |
| 287 | 12% | 22% | |
| 288 | 7% | 9% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 290 | 2% | 2% | |
| 291 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 195 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 197 | 2% | 97% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 199 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 200 | 5% | 93% | |
| 201 | 26% | 88% | |
| 202 | 2% | 62% | |
| 203 | 1.1% | 60% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 59% | Median |
| 205 | 1.3% | 59% | |
| 206 | 3% | 57% | |
| 207 | 9% | 55% | |
| 208 | 1.1% | 45% | |
| 209 | 3% | 44% | |
| 210 | 8% | 42% | |
| 211 | 16% | 34% | |
| 212 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 213 | 2% | 17% | |
| 214 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 215 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 216 | 6% | 14% | |
| 217 | 2% | 7% | |
| 218 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 220 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 221 | 2% | 3% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 185 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 195 | 7% | 98% | |
| 196 | 2% | 91% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 198 | 2% | 89% | |
| 199 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 202 | 2% | 86% | |
| 203 | 0.7% | 83% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 205 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 206 | 4% | 81% | |
| 207 | 0.8% | 77% | |
| 208 | 2% | 77% | |
| 209 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 210 | 2% | 48% | |
| 211 | 17% | 46% | |
| 212 | 10% | 29% | |
| 213 | 11% | 19% | |
| 214 | 2% | 8% | |
| 215 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 216 | 2% | 5% | |
| 217 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 218 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 221 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 173 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 98% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 180 | 2% | 96% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 184 | 8% | 92% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 187 | 3% | 83% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 189 | 4% | 80% | |
| 190 | 2% | 76% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 73% | |
| 192 | 1.2% | 73% | |
| 193 | 16% | 71% | |
| 194 | 13% | 55% | Median |
| 195 | 8% | 42% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 34% | |
| 197 | 25% | 34% | |
| 198 | 3% | 9% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 201 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 202 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 204 | 2% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 97% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 179 | 2% | 96% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 183 | 8% | 92% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 83% | |
| 186 | 1.3% | 82% | |
| 187 | 3% | 81% | |
| 188 | 2% | 78% | |
| 189 | 2% | 75% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 73% | |
| 191 | 2% | 73% | |
| 192 | 16% | 70% | |
| 193 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 194 | 9% | 43% | |
| 195 | 25% | 34% | |
| 196 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 197 | 2% | 8% | |
| 198 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 199 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0% | 3% | |
| 203 | 2% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 155 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 158 | 5% | 95% | |
| 159 | 3% | 90% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 161 | 5% | 86% | |
| 162 | 27% | 81% | |
| 163 | 3% | 54% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 51% | Median |
| 165 | 16% | 51% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 35% | |
| 167 | 3% | 35% | |
| 168 | 15% | 32% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 170 | 8% | 16% | |
| 171 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 7% | |
| 173 | 2% | 7% | |
| 174 | 2% | 5% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 3% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0% | 2% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 152 | 3% | 95% | |
| 153 | 25% | 91% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 66% | Median |
| 155 | 8% | 66% | |
| 156 | 13% | 58% | |
| 157 | 16% | 45% | |
| 158 | 1.2% | 29% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 27% | |
| 160 | 2% | 27% | |
| 161 | 4% | 24% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 20% | |
| 163 | 3% | 19% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 166 | 8% | 16% | |
| 167 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 170 | 2% | 6% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 141 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 142 | 2% | 95% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 144 | 25% | 91% | |
| 145 | 2% | 66% | Median |
| 146 | 4% | 65% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 61% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 60% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 59% | |
| 150 | 19% | 59% | |
| 151 | 15% | 40% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 25% | |
| 153 | 3% | 23% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 155 | 4% | 20% | |
| 156 | 2% | 15% | |
| 157 | 6% | 14% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 161 | 3% | 7% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 138 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 139 | 2% | 95% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 141 | 4% | 94% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 143 | 28% | 89% | |
| 144 | 1.5% | 61% | Median |
| 145 | 1.2% | 60% | |
| 146 | 9% | 58% | |
| 147 | 9% | 50% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 41% | |
| 149 | 4% | 40% | |
| 150 | 17% | 36% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 19% | |
| 152 | 2% | 18% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 155 | 7% | 14% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 159 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 162 | 2% | 4% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 132 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 133 | 3% | 96% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 135 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 136 | 25% | 92% | |
| 137 | 1.2% | 67% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 65% | |
| 139 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 140 | 2% | 48% | |
| 141 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 142 | 4% | 45% | |
| 143 | 4% | 41% | |
| 144 | 16% | 37% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 147 | 7% | 20% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 149 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 151 | 2% | 9% | |
| 152 | 3% | 8% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 154 | 2% | 5% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 122 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 123 | 3% | 97% | |
| 124 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 127 | 25% | 91% | |
| 128 | 2% | 66% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 130 | 1.0% | 64% | Median |
| 131 | 0.9% | 63% | |
| 132 | 3% | 62% | |
| 133 | 11% | 59% | |
| 134 | 7% | 48% | |
| 135 | 5% | 41% | |
| 136 | 2% | 37% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 138 | 21% | 35% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 140 | 3% | 13% | |
| 141 | 2% | 10% | |
| 142 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 145 | 2% | 5% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 2% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 105 | 6% | 96% | |
| 106 | 2% | 90% | |
| 107 | 2% | 88% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 111 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 114 | 2% | 82% | |
| 115 | 3% | 80% | |
| 116 | 2% | 77% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 118 | 8% | 74% | |
| 119 | 27% | 67% | Median |
| 120 | 0.6% | 39% | |
| 121 | 27% | 39% | |
| 122 | 2% | 12% | |
| 123 | 2% | 10% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 125 | 5% | 8% | |
| 126 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 86 | 3% | 94% | |
| 87 | 5% | 91% | |
| 88 | 29% | 86% | |
| 89 | 3% | 57% | |
| 90 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 91 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 92 | 16% | 46% | |
| 93 | 3% | 30% | |
| 94 | 16% | 27% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 96 | 2% | 10% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 99 | 3% | 6% | |
| 100 | 0% | 4% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 110 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 26 February–2 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.12%