Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 1–7 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 26.6% | 25.0–28.4% | 24.5–28.9% | 24.1–29.3% | 23.3–30.2% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 24.3% | 22.7–26.0% | 22.2–26.5% | 21.8–26.9% | 21.1–27.7% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 23.5% | 22.0–25.3% | 21.5–25.7% | 21.1–26.2% | 20.4–27.0% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 16.2% | 14.8–17.7% | 14.4–18.1% | 14.1–18.5% | 13.5–19.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.1% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.6–2.4% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 137 | 111 | 97–121 | 96–121 | 94–121 | 92–122 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 90 | 84–99 | 84–102 | 84–102 | 77–110 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 78 | 74–90 | 72–93 | 70–93 | 66–98 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 40 | 36–49 | 33–53 | 33–54 | 33–61 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 9 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 7–14 | 6–17 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 4–8 | 3–10 | 3–10 | 3–10 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 4 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 1–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 96 | 2% | 95% | |
| 97 | 3% | 93% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 99 | 5% | 89% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 84% | |
| 101 | 4% | 83% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 103 | 3% | 79% | |
| 104 | 7% | 76% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 69% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 68% | |
| 107 | 0% | 68% | |
| 108 | 3% | 68% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 65% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 64% | |
| 111 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 112 | 12% | 49% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 37% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 37% | |
| 115 | 4% | 37% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 33% | |
| 117 | 3% | 33% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 30% | |
| 119 | 7% | 29% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 121 | 22% | 22% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 84 | 16% | 98% | |
| 85 | 14% | 82% | Last Result |
| 86 | 3% | 68% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 88 | 6% | 65% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 59% | |
| 90 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 91 | 10% | 36% | |
| 92 | 3% | 27% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 94 | 5% | 23% | |
| 95 | 5% | 18% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 97 | 2% | 13% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 99 | 4% | 10% | |
| 100 | 0% | 7% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 102 | 4% | 6% | |
| 103 | 0% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 73 | 2% | 94% | |
| 74 | 4% | 92% | |
| 75 | 9% | 88% | |
| 76 | 15% | 79% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 64% | |
| 78 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 79 | 0.2% | 42% | |
| 80 | 3% | 42% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 39% | |
| 82 | 4% | 38% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 34% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 33% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 33% | |
| 86 | 7% | 33% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 26% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 89 | 3% | 25% | |
| 90 | 13% | 22% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 92 | 3% | 9% | |
| 93 | 5% | 6% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 36 | 27% | 93% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 66% | |
| 38 | 2% | 65% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 64% | |
| 40 | 22% | 63% | Median |
| 41 | 0.6% | 41% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 40% | |
| 43 | 3% | 40% | |
| 44 | 8% | 37% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 47 | 4% | 28% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 49 | 15% | 23% | |
| 50 | 2% | 8% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 52 | 0% | 6% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 8% | 94% | |
| 9 | 46% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 1.5% | 41% | |
| 11 | 2% | 39% | |
| 12 | 30% | 37% | |
| 13 | 3% | 8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 5% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 27% | 94% | |
| 5 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 46% | |
| 7 | 8% | 20% | |
| 8 | 4% | 12% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 10 | 8% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 5 | 4% | 85% | Last Result |
| 6 | 55% | 81% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 25% | |
| 8 | 21% | 23% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 25% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 3 | 8% | 74% | |
| 4 | 33% | 65% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 32% | |
| 6 | 2% | 13% | |
| 7 | 11% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | |
| 1 | 44% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 10% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 15% | |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 283 | 100% | 271–289 | 268–289 | 267–289 | 264–289 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 212 | 100% | 204–224 | 204–228 | 202–228 | 200–233 |
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 222 | 197 | 100% | 193–211 | 192–211 | 191–211 | 181–214 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 195 | 94% | 176–202 | 175–202 | 169–204 | 168–205 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 194 | 89% | 175–202 | 173–202 | 169–203 | 168–203 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 168 | 24% | 160–184 | 160–184 | 160–186 | 156–193 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 155 | 5% | 147–172 | 147–175 | 146–181 | 145–182 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 145 | 0.2% | 139–165 | 139–167 | 137–173 | 136–173 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 143 | 0% | 136–160 | 136–163 | 135–167 | 130–171 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 141 | 0% | 133–155 | 133–158 | 130–161 | 127–164 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 131 | 0% | 125–147 | 125–149 | 119–153 | 118–156 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 111 | 0% | 97–121 | 96–121 | 94–121 | 92–122 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 90 | 0% | 84–99 | 84–102 | 84–102 | 77–110 |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 100% | |
| 261 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 262 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 264 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 265 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 266 | 0% | 98% | |
| 267 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 268 | 3% | 97% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 270 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 271 | 17% | 94% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 77% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 77% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 277 | 4% | 75% | |
| 278 | 0.4% | 72% | |
| 279 | 8% | 72% | Median |
| 280 | 1.2% | 63% | |
| 281 | 3% | 62% | |
| 282 | 7% | 59% | |
| 283 | 6% | 52% | |
| 284 | 0.5% | 47% | |
| 285 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 286 | 0.8% | 45% | |
| 287 | 15% | 44% | |
| 288 | 7% | 29% | |
| 289 | 22% | 22% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 201 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 203 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 204 | 24% | 97% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 73% | |
| 206 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 207 | 6% | 72% | |
| 208 | 0% | 66% | Median |
| 209 | 15% | 66% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 51% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 50% | |
| 212 | 3% | 50% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 47% | |
| 214 | 3% | 47% | |
| 215 | 12% | 44% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 32% | |
| 217 | 5% | 31% | |
| 218 | 0.6% | 27% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 220 | 9% | 25% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 223 | 4% | 16% | |
| 224 | 6% | 11% | |
| 225 | 0% | 5% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 227 | 0% | 5% | |
| 228 | 3% | 5% | |
| 229 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 232 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 233 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 191 | 2% | 98% | |
| 192 | 3% | 96% | |
| 193 | 8% | 93% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 195 | 24% | 84% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 197 | 12% | 60% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 48% | |
| 199 | 3% | 48% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 201 | 6% | 43% | Median |
| 202 | 2% | 38% | |
| 203 | 3% | 36% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 32% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 32% | |
| 206 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 207 | 6% | 31% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 209 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 210 | 0.9% | 24% | |
| 211 | 22% | 23% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 168 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 169 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 170 | 0% | 96% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 174 | 0% | 95% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 176 | 6% | 94% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 178 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 188 | 18% | 85% | |
| 189 | 9% | 66% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 57% | Median |
| 191 | 0.3% | 57% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 57% | |
| 194 | 1.2% | 56% | |
| 195 | 7% | 55% | |
| 196 | 3% | 48% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 45% | |
| 198 | 7% | 45% | |
| 199 | 22% | 38% | |
| 200 | 0.9% | 16% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 202 | 12% | 15% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 204 | 2% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 169 | 2% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 174 | 2% | 95% | |
| 175 | 4% | 92% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 89% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 86% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 185 | 5% | 85% | |
| 186 | 3% | 80% | |
| 187 | 16% | 76% | |
| 188 | 3% | 61% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 57% | Median |
| 190 | 0.4% | 57% | |
| 191 | 0% | 57% | |
| 192 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 55% | |
| 194 | 7% | 55% | |
| 195 | 3% | 48% | |
| 196 | 0% | 45% | |
| 197 | 8% | 45% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 37% | |
| 199 | 22% | 37% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 202 | 12% | 15% | |
| 203 | 2% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 160 | 15% | 98% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 163 | 6% | 83% | |
| 164 | 1.5% | 77% | |
| 165 | 2% | 76% | |
| 166 | 1.1% | 74% | |
| 167 | 3% | 73% | |
| 168 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 169 | 0.1% | 46% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 171 | 6% | 45% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 39% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 39% | |
| 174 | 3% | 39% | |
| 175 | 12% | 36% | |
| 176 | 4% | 24% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 20% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 180 | 5% | 20% | |
| 181 | 0% | 15% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 184 | 11% | 14% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 147 | 12% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 151 | 24% | 84% | |
| 152 | 7% | 60% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 52% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 52% | Median |
| 155 | 6% | 51% | |
| 156 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 44% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 43% | |
| 159 | 3% | 43% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 40% | |
| 161 | 6% | 39% | |
| 162 | 18% | 33% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 172 | 5% | 12% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 174 | 2% | 8% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 176 | 0% | 5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0% | 4% | Last Result |
| 181 | 3% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 139 | 13% | 97% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 141 | 21% | 84% | |
| 142 | 8% | 62% | |
| 143 | 3% | 54% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 52% | Median |
| 145 | 6% | 50% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 44% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 44% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 43% | |
| 149 | 15% | 43% | |
| 150 | 6% | 28% | |
| 151 | 3% | 22% | |
| 152 | 3% | 19% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 163 | 0% | 12% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 165 | 4% | 11% | |
| 166 | 2% | 8% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 168 | 0% | 4% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0% | 3% | |
| 173 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0% | 98% | |
| 132 | 0% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 134 | 0% | 98% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 136 | 12% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0% | 85% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 139 | 22% | 85% | |
| 140 | 1.2% | 63% | |
| 141 | 3% | 62% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 58% | |
| 143 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 144 | 1.1% | 47% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 46% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 45% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 45% | |
| 148 | 6% | 44% | |
| 149 | 5% | 38% | |
| 150 | 15% | 33% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 152 | 3% | 18% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 157 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 160 | 4% | 12% | |
| 161 | 0% | 8% | |
| 162 | 3% | 8% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 166 | 0% | 4% | |
| 167 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0% | 98% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 131 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 133 | 12% | 96% | |
| 134 | 0% | 84% | |
| 135 | 3% | 84% | |
| 136 | 21% | 81% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 59% | |
| 138 | 3% | 59% | |
| 139 | 2% | 56% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 53% | Median |
| 141 | 8% | 53% | |
| 142 | 9% | 45% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 36% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 36% | |
| 145 | 5% | 35% | |
| 146 | 15% | 30% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 149 | 0% | 14% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 152 | 0% | 13% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 155 | 3% | 12% | |
| 156 | 4% | 9% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 160 | 0% | 4% | |
| 161 | 2% | 4% | |
| 162 | 0% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 164 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 120 | 0% | 97% | |
| 121 | 0% | 97% | |
| 122 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 125 | 15% | 96% | |
| 126 | 22% | 81% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 59% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 58% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 57% | |
| 130 | 3% | 56% | Median |
| 131 | 8% | 53% | |
| 132 | 6% | 45% | |
| 133 | 15% | 39% | |
| 134 | 8% | 24% | |
| 135 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 144 | 0% | 12% | |
| 145 | 0% | 12% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 147 | 3% | 12% | |
| 148 | 0% | 9% | |
| 149 | 4% | 9% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 153 | 2% | 4% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 96 | 2% | 95% | |
| 97 | 3% | 93% | |
| 98 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 99 | 5% | 89% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 84% | |
| 101 | 4% | 83% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 103 | 3% | 79% | |
| 104 | 7% | 76% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 69% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 68% | |
| 107 | 0% | 68% | |
| 108 | 3% | 68% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 65% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 64% | |
| 111 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 112 | 12% | 49% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 37% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 37% | |
| 115 | 4% | 37% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 33% | |
| 117 | 3% | 33% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 30% | |
| 119 | 7% | 29% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 121 | 22% | 22% | |
| 122 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 84 | 16% | 98% | |
| 85 | 14% | 82% | Last Result |
| 86 | 3% | 68% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 88 | 6% | 65% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 59% | |
| 90 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 91 | 10% | 36% | |
| 92 | 3% | 27% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 94 | 5% | 23% | |
| 95 | 5% | 18% | |
| 96 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 97 | 2% | 13% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 99 | 4% | 10% | |
| 100 | 0% | 7% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 102 | 4% | 6% | |
| 103 | 0% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 1–7 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.32%