Opinion Poll by GAD3 for La Vanguardia, 12–14 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 27.3% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.0%
Partido Popular 33.0% 23.8% 22.1–25.6% 21.7–26.1% 21.3–26.6% 20.5–27.4%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.8% 18.9–25.7%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 16.7% 15.2–18.3% 14.8–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.8–19.9%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 2.7% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 2.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Euskal Herria Bildu 0.8% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 0.3% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 101 86–110 86–114 86–114 81–118
Partido Popular 137 92 84–106 81–106 81–107 77–114
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 88 78–93 76–93 75–94 68–97
Unidos Podemos 71 43 39–51 39–55 37–58 36–67
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 9 12 9–13 9–14 8–14 6–16
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 8 5 4–8 4–8 3–8 2–10
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 5 8 5–8 5–9 3–10 3–10
Euskal Herria Bildu 2 1 0–4 0–6 0–7 0–7
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 1 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–4

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0% 99.7%  
81 1.2% 99.6%  
82 0% 98%  
83 0% 98%  
84 0.6% 98%  
85 0.1% 98%  
86 8% 98%  
87 0.5% 90%  
88 2% 89%  
89 0.2% 87%  
90 0.3% 87%  
91 4% 87%  
92 2% 83%  
93 2% 81%  
94 8% 79%  
95 0.1% 72%  
96 2% 71%  
97 2% 70%  
98 1.0% 67%  
99 4% 66%  
100 2% 62%  
101 38% 60% Median
102 0.3% 22%  
103 1.3% 22%  
104 0.7% 21%  
105 1.2% 20%  
106 0.6% 19%  
107 0.8% 18%  
108 1.2% 17%  
109 5% 16%  
110 3% 11%  
111 0.6% 7%  
112 0.6% 7%  
113 0.8% 6%  
114 4% 5%  
115 0.1% 1.2%  
116 0.2% 1.1%  
117 0.3% 0.9%  
118 0.4% 0.6%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.5% 99.4%  
79 1.0% 98.9%  
80 0.3% 98%  
81 5% 98%  
82 0.4% 92%  
83 1.3% 92%  
84 0.8% 91%  
85 2% 90%  
86 2% 88%  
87 1.4% 86%  
88 0.7% 85%  
89 1.1% 84%  
90 4% 83%  
91 1.2% 79%  
92 38% 78% Median
93 8% 40%  
94 2% 32%  
95 1.3% 30%  
96 9% 29%  
97 4% 20%  
98 0.5% 15%  
99 0% 15%  
100 0.7% 15%  
101 0.9% 14%  
102 0.2% 13%  
103 0.8% 13%  
104 0% 12%  
105 2% 12%  
106 8% 10%  
107 0.1% 3%  
108 0.4% 2%  
109 0.1% 2%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 0% 0.8%  
112 0% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.7%  
114 0.6% 0.7%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.5%  
70 0.1% 99.4%  
71 0.5% 99.3%  
72 0.3% 98.8%  
73 0% 98.6%  
74 0% 98.5%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 0.6% 94%  
78 5% 94%  
79 1.0% 88%  
80 6% 87%  
81 5% 82%  
82 0.2% 76%  
83 1.4% 76%  
84 2% 75%  
85 2% 73% Last Result
86 7% 71%  
87 8% 63%  
88 37% 55% Median
89 1.4% 18%  
90 3% 17%  
91 2% 14%  
92 0.3% 12%  
93 8% 11%  
94 1.4% 3%  
95 0.3% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.5%  
97 0.7% 1.1%  
98 0% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.1% 99.7%  
36 0.3% 99.6%  
37 2% 99.4%  
38 1.4% 97%  
39 11% 96%  
40 1.0% 84%  
41 8% 83%  
42 0.4% 75%  
43 36% 75% Median
44 2% 39%  
45 0.4% 37%  
46 13% 37%  
47 0.3% 24%  
48 2% 23%  
49 2% 21%  
50 9% 20%  
51 1.4% 11%  
52 1.5% 9%  
53 0.3% 8%  
54 2% 7%  
55 0.7% 6%  
56 1.1% 5%  
57 0.1% 4%  
58 1.3% 4%  
59 0.5% 2%  
60 0.5% 2%  
61 0.1% 1.5%  
62 0.1% 1.3%  
63 0.2% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 1.0%  
65 0% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0% 0.5%  
68 0% 0.5%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
72 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 0.7% 99.5%  
8 3% 98.8%  
9 18% 96% Last Result
10 1.3% 78%  
11 12% 77%  
12 46% 65% Median
13 12% 18%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.9% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.8%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 1.4% 99.6%  
3 0.9% 98%  
4 18% 97%  
5 39% 79% Median
6 23% 41%  
7 2% 18%  
8 14% 16% Last Result
9 0.5% 2%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.9%  
4 1.0% 97%  
5 7% 96% Last Result
6 16% 89%  
7 10% 73%  
8 55% 63% Median
9 4% 8%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 53% 87% Median
2 15% 34% Last Result
3 2% 19%  
4 9% 17%  
5 2% 7%  
6 2% 5%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 38% 50% Last Result
2 10% 12%  
3 1.4% 2%  
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 254 281 100% 272–283 268–286 264–286 257–287
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 188 232 100% 219–238 219–240 214–244 208–249
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario 170 193 98% 183–203 183–203 180–205 172–208
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular 169 193 98% 182–201 182–202 179–204 171–207
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 117 189 91% 177–192 172–193 167–197 163–203
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 222 180 75% 167–189 159–192 159–192 156–199
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 180 157 2% 147–167 147–167 145–170 142–178
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 173 148 0% 139–158 138–158 136–162 134–168
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu 167 144 0% 135–153 135–153 132–159 127–166
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 163 140 0% 130–152 129–152 127–152 123–159
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 131 0% 121–143 121–143 120–145 115–149
Partido Popular 137 92 0% 84–106 81–106 81–107 77–114
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 88 0% 78–93 76–93 75–94 68–97

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0.3% 100% Last Result
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.3% 99.3%  
259 0.4% 99.0%  
260 0.6% 98.7%  
261 0.2% 98%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 1.1% 98%  
265 0.3% 97%  
266 0.3% 96%  
267 1.1% 96%  
268 0.3% 95%  
269 0.7% 95%  
270 2% 94%  
271 1.3% 92%  
272 0.6% 90%  
273 4% 90%  
274 2% 86%  
275 13% 84%  
276 2% 71%  
277 2% 69%  
278 0.4% 67%  
279 3% 67%  
280 4% 64%  
281 39% 60% Median
282 9% 21%  
283 2% 12%  
284 0.2% 10%  
285 0.8% 9%  
286 7% 9%  
287 1.5% 2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0.1% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0.2% 100%  
208 0.5% 99.7%  
209 0% 99.3%  
210 0% 99.3%  
211 0.1% 99.2%  
212 0% 99.1%  
213 0.1% 99.1%  
214 3% 99.0%  
215 0.1% 96%  
216 0% 96%  
217 0.1% 96%  
218 0.5% 96%  
219 7% 96%  
220 2% 89%  
221 0.4% 87%  
222 0.3% 86%  
223 0.4% 86%  
224 3% 85%  
225 0.6% 82%  
226 2% 82%  
227 3% 80%  
228 3% 77%  
229 10% 74%  
230 7% 64%  
231 1.1% 57%  
232 35% 55% Median
233 3% 20%  
234 0.3% 17%  
235 0.4% 17%  
236 0.2% 17%  
237 4% 16%  
238 4% 13%  
239 2% 8%  
240 2% 6%  
241 0.4% 4%  
242 0% 4%  
243 0.9% 4%  
244 0.7% 3%  
245 1.0% 2%  
246 0.3% 1.3%  
247 0% 1.0%  
248 0.2% 0.9%  
249 0.3% 0.7%  
250 0.2% 0.4%  
251 0.2% 0.2%  
252 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
171 0.1% 99.8%  
172 0.3% 99.7%  
173 0% 99.5%  
174 0.9% 99.4%  
175 0% 98%  
176 0.1% 98% Majority
177 0% 98%  
178 0.2% 98%  
179 0.5% 98%  
180 0.9% 98%  
181 0.4% 97%  
182 0.6% 96%  
183 10% 96%  
184 0.6% 86%  
185 0.5% 85%  
186 0.2% 85%  
187 0.6% 85%  
188 3% 84%  
189 3% 81%  
190 1.1% 78%  
191 2% 77%  
192 3% 75%  
193 38% 72% Median
194 3% 34%  
195 0.3% 30%  
196 5% 30%  
197 0.1% 25%  
198 2% 25%  
199 0.5% 23%  
200 7% 23%  
201 5% 16%  
202 0.3% 10%  
203 6% 10%  
204 0.3% 4%  
205 0.9% 3%  
206 2% 2%  
207 0.3% 0.9%  
208 0.2% 0.6%  
209 0.1% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0% 0.3%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0.1% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.3% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.4%  
173 0.9% 99.4%  
174 0.1% 98.5%  
175 0% 98%  
176 0% 98% Majority
177 0.2% 98%  
178 0.5% 98%  
179 0.7% 98%  
180 0.4% 97%  
181 0.3% 97%  
182 10% 96%  
183 0.4% 86%  
184 0.8% 86%  
185 0.5% 85%  
186 2% 84%  
187 1.0% 83%  
188 5% 82%  
189 0.4% 77%  
190 2% 76%  
191 3% 74%  
192 4% 71%  
193 37% 68% Median
194 1.1% 31%  
195 5% 30%  
196 0.4% 25%  
197 0.5% 25%  
198 2% 24%  
199 1.4% 23%  
200 11% 21%  
201 0.8% 10%  
202 6% 10%  
203 0.1% 4%  
204 2% 4%  
205 0.7% 2%  
206 0.2% 0.8%  
207 0.3% 0.6%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0% 0.3%  
210 0% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.2%  
213 0.1% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.8%  
163 0.5% 99.8%  
164 1.1% 99.3%  
165 0.2% 98%  
166 0.4% 98%  
167 0.5% 98%  
168 0.2% 97%  
169 0.8% 97%  
170 0.1% 96%  
171 0.3% 96%  
172 1.1% 96%  
173 0.1% 95%  
174 2% 94%  
175 0.8% 92%  
176 0.1% 91% Majority
177 1.4% 91%  
178 4% 90%  
179 10% 86%  
180 8% 76%  
181 1.1% 69%  
182 1.4% 68%  
183 0.9% 66%  
184 1.2% 65%  
185 2% 64%  
186 0.1% 62%  
187 0.5% 62%  
188 3% 61%  
189 42% 59% Median
190 0.5% 17%  
191 3% 16%  
192 7% 13%  
193 1.1% 6%  
194 2% 5%  
195 0.1% 3%  
196 0.2% 3%  
197 0.6% 3%  
198 0.3% 2%  
199 0.5% 2%  
200 0.5% 1.4%  
201 0.2% 0.9%  
202 0.2% 0.7%  
203 0.3% 0.5%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0.2% 0.2%  
208 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0.1% 100%  
154 0.2% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.2% 99.6%  
157 0.1% 99.4%  
158 0.1% 99.3%  
159 5% 99.2%  
160 0.2% 94%  
161 0% 94%  
162 0.3% 94%  
163 0.1% 94%  
164 0.3% 94%  
165 1.1% 93%  
166 0.9% 92%  
167 2% 91%  
168 0.3% 90%  
169 0.7% 90%  
170 1.0% 89%  
171 3% 88%  
172 1.2% 84%  
173 7% 83%  
174 0.5% 76%  
175 1.1% 76%  
176 0.7% 75% Majority
177 0.5% 74%  
178 1.4% 73%  
179 3% 72%  
180 39% 69% Median
181 0.4% 30%  
182 0.3% 30%  
183 4% 30%  
184 5% 25%  
185 0.4% 20%  
186 1.3% 20%  
187 0.3% 19%  
188 0.3% 18%  
189 9% 18%  
190 0.1% 9%  
191 0.4% 9%  
192 6% 8%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.1% 0.9%  
195 0.2% 0.9%  
196 0% 0.7%  
197 0% 0.6%  
198 0% 0.6%  
199 0.5% 0.6%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0.1% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.2% 99.6%  
143 0.3% 99.4%  
144 2% 99.1%  
145 0.9% 98%  
146 0.3% 97%  
147 6% 96%  
148 0.3% 90%  
149 5% 90%  
150 7% 84%  
151 0.5% 77%  
152 2% 77%  
153 0.1% 75%  
154 5% 75%  
155 0.3% 70%  
156 3% 70%  
157 38% 66% Median
158 3% 28%  
159 2% 25%  
160 1.1% 23%  
161 3% 22%  
162 3% 19%  
163 0.6% 16%  
164 0.2% 15%  
165 0.5% 15%  
166 0.6% 15%  
167 10% 14%  
168 0.6% 4%  
169 0.4% 4%  
170 0.9% 3%  
171 0.5% 2%  
172 0.2% 2%  
173 0% 2%  
174 0.1% 2%  
175 0% 2%  
176 0.9% 2% Majority
177 0% 0.6%  
178 0.3% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.7%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0% 99.6%  
134 0.4% 99.6%  
135 0.3% 99.2%  
136 1.4% 98.9%  
137 1.0% 97%  
138 2% 96%  
139 6% 95%  
140 4% 89%  
141 0.8% 85%  
142 8% 84%  
143 4% 76%  
144 0.5% 72%  
145 3% 72%  
146 4% 68%  
147 0.8% 65%  
148 36% 64% Median
149 3% 28%  
150 1.2% 24%  
151 2% 23%  
152 2% 22%  
153 4% 20%  
154 0.3% 15%  
155 0.4% 15%  
156 0.1% 15%  
157 0.7% 15%  
158 10% 14%  
159 0.3% 4%  
160 0.3% 3%  
161 0.6% 3%  
162 0.4% 3%  
163 0.1% 2%  
164 0.3% 2%  
165 0% 2%  
166 0.1% 2%  
167 0.3% 1.5%  
168 0.9% 1.2%  
169 0% 0.3%  
170 0.1% 0.3%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.7%  
128 0.1% 99.5%  
129 0.1% 99.4%  
130 0% 99.3%  
131 0.7% 99.3%  
132 2% 98.5%  
133 0.6% 97%  
134 0.7% 96%  
135 6% 96%  
136 0.9% 90%  
137 1.0% 89%  
138 8% 88%  
139 5% 80%  
140 4% 75%  
141 1.0% 71%  
142 3% 70%  
143 3% 67%  
144 36% 65% Median
145 2% 29%  
146 1.2% 27%  
147 7% 26%  
148 1.1% 19%  
149 0.4% 18%  
150 1.2% 17%  
151 1.4% 16%  
152 2% 15%  
153 8% 13%  
154 0.4% 5%  
155 0.4% 4%  
156 0.1% 4%  
157 0.4% 4%  
158 0.7% 3%  
159 0.7% 3%  
160 0.2% 2%  
161 0% 2%  
162 0.2% 2%  
163 0% 2%  
164 0.9% 2%  
165 0% 0.6%  
166 0.1% 0.6%  
167 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
168 0% 0.2%  
169 0% 0.2%  
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0.1% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0% 99.7%  
123 0.3% 99.7%  
124 0.1% 99.4%  
125 0.1% 99.3%  
126 0% 99.2%  
127 2% 99.2%  
128 0.6% 97%  
129 7% 97%  
130 1.4% 90%  
131 0.3% 89%  
132 0.5% 88%  
133 8% 88%  
134 1.4% 80%  
135 4% 78%  
136 4% 74%  
137 0.5% 70%  
138 0.4% 70%  
139 2% 69%  
140 36% 67% Median
141 7% 31%  
142 2% 24%  
143 2% 21%  
144 1.5% 19%  
145 0.5% 18%  
146 1.3% 17%  
147 0.4% 16%  
148 0.7% 16%  
149 0.4% 15%  
150 0.6% 15%  
151 2% 14%  
152 9% 12%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 0.2% 2%  
155 0.1% 2%  
156 0% 2%  
157 0.9% 2%  
158 0% 0.7%  
159 0.2% 0.6%  
160 0% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.4%  
162 0% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0.1% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.8%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0% 99.7%  
113 0% 99.7%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.2% 99.5%  
116 0.1% 99.3%  
117 0% 99.2%  
118 0.2% 99.1%  
119 1.3% 98.9%  
120 2% 98%  
121 7% 96%  
122 1.4% 89%  
123 0.3% 88%  
124 4% 87%  
125 7% 83%  
126 2% 76%  
127 4% 74%  
128 3% 70%  
129 3% 67%  
130 1.0% 64%  
131 35% 63% Median
132 0.9% 28%  
133 6% 27%  
134 2% 21%  
135 2% 20%  
136 2% 18%  
137 0.2% 16%  
138 0.3% 16%  
139 0.4% 15%  
140 0.6% 15%  
141 1.0% 14%  
142 2% 13%  
143 8% 11%  
144 0.2% 3%  
145 0.6% 3%  
146 0.4% 2%  
147 0.1% 2%  
148 0.2% 2%  
149 0.9% 1.3%  
150 0.1% 0.4%  
151 0% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.5% 99.4%  
79 1.0% 98.9%  
80 0.3% 98%  
81 5% 98%  
82 0.4% 92%  
83 1.3% 92%  
84 0.8% 91%  
85 2% 90%  
86 2% 88%  
87 1.4% 86%  
88 0.7% 85%  
89 1.1% 84%  
90 4% 83%  
91 1.2% 79%  
92 38% 78% Median
93 8% 40%  
94 2% 32%  
95 1.3% 30%  
96 9% 29%  
97 4% 20%  
98 0.5% 15%  
99 0% 15%  
100 0.7% 15%  
101 0.9% 14%  
102 0.2% 13%  
103 0.8% 13%  
104 0% 12%  
105 2% 12%  
106 8% 10%  
107 0.1% 3%  
108 0.4% 2%  
109 0.1% 2%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 0% 0.8%  
112 0% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.7%  
114 0.6% 0.7%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.5%  
70 0.1% 99.4%  
71 0.5% 99.3%  
72 0.3% 98.8%  
73 0% 98.6%  
74 0% 98.5%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 0.6% 94%  
78 5% 94%  
79 1.0% 88%  
80 6% 87%  
81 5% 82%  
82 0.2% 76%  
83 1.4% 76%  
84 2% 75%  
85 2% 73% Last Result
86 7% 71%  
87 8% 63%  
88 37% 55% Median
89 1.4% 18%  
90 3% 17%  
91 2% 14%  
92 0.3% 12%  
93 8% 11%  
94 1.4% 3%  
95 0.3% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.5%  
97 0.7% 1.1%  
98 0% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations