Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 12–18 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 28.5% | 26.7–30.4% | 26.2–30.9% | 25.8–31.4% | 25.0–32.3% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–24.0% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.2% | 15.8–20.6% | 15.2–21.4% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 107 | 99–115 | 96–119 | 94–121 | 89–125 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 79 | 74–86 | 71–89 | 69–93 | 63–99 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 78 | 72–86 | 69–88 | 66–89 | 62–92 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 58 | 48–66 | 45–68 | 42–69 | 39–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 11 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 7–15 | 7–16 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 8 | 5–10 | 4–10 | 4–10 | 3–12 |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 95 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 96 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 97 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 98 | 3% | 93% | |
| 99 | 3% | 91% | |
| 100 | 3% | 88% | |
| 101 | 5% | 85% | |
| 102 | 4% | 80% | |
| 103 | 5% | 77% | |
| 104 | 6% | 71% | |
| 105 | 2% | 66% | |
| 106 | 4% | 63% | |
| 107 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 108 | 6% | 48% | |
| 109 | 5% | 42% | |
| 110 | 8% | 37% | |
| 111 | 5% | 29% | |
| 112 | 2% | 24% | |
| 113 | 3% | 22% | |
| 114 | 6% | 19% | |
| 115 | 3% | 13% | |
| 116 | 2% | 10% | |
| 117 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 119 | 2% | 5% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 122 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 72 | 2% | 95% | |
| 73 | 2% | 93% | |
| 74 | 2% | 91% | |
| 75 | 5% | 89% | |
| 76 | 9% | 84% | |
| 77 | 7% | 75% | |
| 78 | 10% | 68% | |
| 79 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 80 | 5% | 42% | |
| 81 | 4% | 36% | |
| 82 | 5% | 32% | |
| 83 | 7% | 27% | |
| 84 | 4% | 20% | |
| 85 | 5% | 16% | |
| 86 | 3% | 12% | |
| 87 | 2% | 9% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 6% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 69 | 2% | 96% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 71 | 2% | 92% | |
| 72 | 2% | 91% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 74 | 7% | 88% | |
| 75 | 6% | 80% | |
| 76 | 6% | 75% | |
| 77 | 10% | 68% | |
| 78 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 79 | 7% | 47% | |
| 80 | 7% | 41% | |
| 81 | 5% | 34% | |
| 82 | 7% | 29% | |
| 83 | 4% | 22% | |
| 84 | 2% | 18% | |
| 85 | 2% | 16% | Last Result |
| 86 | 5% | 13% | |
| 87 | 2% | 9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 45 | 2% | 95% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 47 | 2% | 92% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 49 | 4% | 90% | |
| 50 | 6% | 86% | |
| 51 | 3% | 80% | |
| 52 | 6% | 77% | |
| 53 | 2% | 71% | |
| 54 | 4% | 69% | |
| 55 | 3% | 65% | |
| 56 | 5% | 62% | |
| 57 | 4% | 57% | |
| 58 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 59 | 8% | 47% | |
| 60 | 9% | 39% | |
| 61 | 4% | 30% | |
| 62 | 5% | 26% | |
| 63 | 6% | 21% | |
| 64 | 2% | 15% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 66 | 2% | 12% | |
| 67 | 3% | 10% | |
| 68 | 2% | 7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 4% | 95% | |
| 9 | 17% | 91% | Last Result |
| 10 | 8% | 74% | |
| 11 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 12 | 17% | 44% | |
| 13 | 12% | 27% | |
| 14 | 11% | 15% | |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 13% | 94% | |
| 6 | 20% | 80% | |
| 7 | 8% | 61% | |
| 8 | 36% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 5% | 17% | |
| 10 | 10% | 12% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 254 | 265 | 100% | 257–275 | 254–278 | 252–281 | 249–284 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 243 | 100% | 237–250 | 233–253 | 229–256 | 222–261 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular | 169 | 186 | 93% | 177–197 | 175–200 | 173–203 | 169–208 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 117 | 186 | 92% | 177–195 | 173–198 | 171–201 | 165–205 |
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 222 | 158 | 1.4% | 151–167 | 148–170 | 146–173 | 143–180 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 155 | 0.1% | 144–164 | 141–166 | 138–168 | 133–172 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 136 | 0% | 125–146 | 122–149 | 120–150 | 116–155 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 79 | 0% | 74–86 | 71–89 | 69–93 | 63–99 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 78 | 0% | 72–86 | 69–88 | 66–89 | 62–92 |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 250 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 251 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 252 | 1.2% | 98.5% | |
| 253 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 254 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 255 | 2% | 94% | |
| 256 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 257 | 3% | 91% | |
| 258 | 2% | 88% | |
| 259 | 4% | 86% | |
| 260 | 6% | 82% | |
| 261 | 4% | 76% | |
| 262 | 5% | 72% | |
| 263 | 10% | 67% | |
| 264 | 4% | 57% | Median |
| 265 | 4% | 52% | |
| 266 | 7% | 48% | |
| 267 | 4% | 41% | |
| 268 | 3% | 36% | |
| 269 | 3% | 34% | |
| 270 | 6% | 30% | |
| 271 | 3% | 24% | |
| 272 | 5% | 21% | |
| 273 | 2% | 16% | |
| 274 | 2% | 14% | |
| 275 | 3% | 12% | |
| 276 | 2% | 10% | |
| 277 | 3% | 8% | |
| 278 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 279 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 280 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 281 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 282 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 283 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 284 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 224 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 226 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 229 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 230 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 231 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 232 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 233 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 234 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 235 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 236 | 2% | 93% | |
| 237 | 3% | 91% | |
| 238 | 5% | 88% | |
| 239 | 6% | 83% | |
| 240 | 4% | 77% | |
| 241 | 10% | 73% | |
| 242 | 9% | 63% | |
| 243 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 244 | 10% | 44% | |
| 245 | 6% | 33% | |
| 246 | 9% | 28% | |
| 247 | 3% | 19% | |
| 248 | 3% | 16% | |
| 249 | 2% | 14% | |
| 250 | 2% | 11% | |
| 251 | 2% | 10% | |
| 252 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 253 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 254 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 255 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 256 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 257 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 259 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 173 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 174 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 175 | 2% | 96% | |
| 176 | 2% | 93% | Majority |
| 177 | 4% | 92% | |
| 178 | 3% | 88% | |
| 179 | 4% | 85% | |
| 180 | 3% | 81% | |
| 181 | 2% | 78% | |
| 182 | 7% | 76% | |
| 183 | 3% | 70% | |
| 184 | 7% | 67% | |
| 185 | 5% | 60% | |
| 186 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 187 | 3% | 48% | |
| 188 | 2% | 46% | |
| 189 | 9% | 44% | |
| 190 | 2% | 35% | |
| 191 | 5% | 34% | |
| 192 | 5% | 29% | |
| 193 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 194 | 3% | 22% | |
| 195 | 3% | 19% | |
| 196 | 4% | 16% | |
| 197 | 2% | 12% | |
| 198 | 2% | 10% | |
| 199 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 200 | 2% | 6% | |
| 201 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 172 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 173 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 175 | 2% | 93% | |
| 176 | 1.3% | 92% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 178 | 2% | 89% | |
| 179 | 4% | 87% | |
| 180 | 3% | 83% | |
| 181 | 5% | 80% | |
| 182 | 2% | 76% | |
| 183 | 4% | 73% | |
| 184 | 11% | 69% | |
| 185 | 5% | 58% | Median |
| 186 | 9% | 53% | |
| 187 | 6% | 44% | |
| 188 | 3% | 38% | |
| 189 | 9% | 35% | |
| 190 | 3% | 27% | |
| 191 | 3% | 23% | |
| 192 | 3% | 21% | |
| 193 | 4% | 17% | |
| 194 | 2% | 13% | |
| 195 | 2% | 11% | |
| 196 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 198 | 2% | 7% | |
| 199 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 201 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 145 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 148 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 149 | 2% | 95% | |
| 150 | 2% | 93% | |
| 151 | 4% | 91% | |
| 152 | 3% | 87% | |
| 153 | 6% | 84% | |
| 154 | 7% | 79% | |
| 155 | 5% | 71% | |
| 156 | 9% | 66% | |
| 157 | 5% | 57% | Median |
| 158 | 6% | 51% | |
| 159 | 8% | 45% | |
| 160 | 4% | 37% | |
| 161 | 3% | 33% | |
| 162 | 4% | 29% | |
| 163 | 4% | 26% | |
| 164 | 6% | 21% | |
| 165 | 2% | 15% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 167 | 3% | 12% | |
| 168 | 2% | 9% | |
| 169 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 171 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 1.4% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 138 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 140 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 141 | 2% | 96% | |
| 142 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 143 | 2% | 93% | |
| 144 | 2% | 90% | |
| 145 | 4% | 88% | |
| 146 | 3% | 84% | |
| 147 | 3% | 81% | |
| 148 | 1.3% | 78% | |
| 149 | 5% | 77% | |
| 150 | 5% | 71% | |
| 151 | 2% | 66% | |
| 152 | 9% | 65% | |
| 153 | 2% | 56% | |
| 154 | 3% | 54% | |
| 155 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 156 | 5% | 44% | |
| 157 | 7% | 40% | |
| 158 | 3% | 33% | |
| 159 | 7% | 30% | |
| 160 | 2% | 24% | |
| 161 | 3% | 22% | |
| 162 | 4% | 19% | |
| 163 | 3% | 15% | |
| 164 | 4% | 12% | |
| 165 | 2% | 8% | |
| 166 | 2% | 7% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 117 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 122 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 123 | 2% | 94% | |
| 124 | 2% | 93% | |
| 125 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 126 | 2% | 90% | |
| 127 | 5% | 88% | |
| 128 | 5% | 83% | |
| 129 | 2% | 79% | |
| 130 | 1.5% | 77% | |
| 131 | 5% | 75% | |
| 132 | 3% | 70% | |
| 133 | 3% | 66% | |
| 134 | 5% | 63% | |
| 135 | 5% | 58% | |
| 136 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 137 | 2% | 44% | |
| 138 | 8% | 42% | |
| 139 | 3% | 34% | |
| 140 | 4% | 32% | |
| 141 | 3% | 27% | |
| 142 | 3% | 25% | |
| 143 | 5% | 21% | |
| 144 | 2% | 16% | |
| 145 | 3% | 14% | |
| 146 | 3% | 11% | |
| 147 | 2% | 8% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 149 | 2% | 5% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 72 | 2% | 95% | |
| 73 | 2% | 93% | |
| 74 | 2% | 91% | |
| 75 | 5% | 89% | |
| 76 | 9% | 84% | |
| 77 | 7% | 75% | |
| 78 | 10% | 68% | |
| 79 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 80 | 5% | 42% | |
| 81 | 4% | 36% | |
| 82 | 5% | 32% | |
| 83 | 7% | 27% | |
| 84 | 4% | 20% | |
| 85 | 5% | 16% | |
| 86 | 3% | 12% | |
| 87 | 2% | 9% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 89 | 2% | 6% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 69 | 2% | 96% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 71 | 2% | 92% | |
| 72 | 2% | 91% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 74 | 7% | 88% | |
| 75 | 6% | 80% | |
| 76 | 6% | 75% | |
| 77 | 10% | 68% | |
| 78 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 79 | 7% | 47% | |
| 80 | 7% | 41% | |
| 81 | 5% | 34% | |
| 82 | 7% | 29% | |
| 83 | 4% | 22% | |
| 84 | 2% | 18% | |
| 85 | 2% | 16% | Last Result |
| 86 | 5% | 13% | |
| 87 | 2% | 9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.45%