Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 16–25 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 25.6% | 23.9–27.4% | 23.4–28.0% | 23.0–28.4% | 22.2–29.3% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 24.4% | 22.7–26.2% | 22.2–26.7% | 21.8–27.2% | 21.0–28.0% |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 23.6% | 21.9–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% | 21.1–26.3% | 20.3–27.2% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–19.0% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 137 | 100 | 92–115 | 92–117 | 92–120 | 86–120 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 90 | 75–96 | 75–96 | 73–97 | 70–103 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 89 | 85–100 | 83–102 | 81–102 | 79–108 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 40 | 37–53 | 36–56 | 34–58 | 33–60 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 11 | 9–15 | 9–16 | 8–16 | 6–17 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 2–8 | 1–10 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 2–5 | 1–7 | 1–7 | 1–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 92 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 93 | 10% | 90% | |
| 94 | 3% | 80% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 77% | |
| 96 | 1.2% | 76% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 75% | |
| 98 | 11% | 73% | |
| 99 | 6% | 63% | |
| 100 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 101 | 0.6% | 46% | |
| 102 | 1.5% | 46% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 44% | |
| 104 | 7% | 43% | |
| 105 | 5% | 37% | |
| 106 | 3% | 32% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 29% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 28% | |
| 109 | 9% | 28% | |
| 110 | 5% | 19% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 115 | 3% | 13% | |
| 116 | 5% | 10% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 120 | 3% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 74 | 2% | 97% | |
| 75 | 5% | 95% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 77 | 2% | 89% | |
| 78 | 6% | 88% | |
| 79 | 3% | 82% | |
| 80 | 3% | 78% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 82 | 2% | 76% | |
| 83 | 10% | 74% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 85 | 2% | 63% | |
| 86 | 2% | 61% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 59% | |
| 88 | 0.9% | 58% | |
| 89 | 5% | 58% | |
| 90 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 91 | 5% | 48% | |
| 92 | 3% | 44% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 41% | |
| 94 | 18% | 40% | |
| 95 | 10% | 21% | |
| 96 | 9% | 12% | |
| 97 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 100 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 85 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 86 | 5% | 88% | |
| 87 | 2% | 82% | |
| 88 | 9% | 80% | |
| 89 | 23% | 71% | Median |
| 90 | 11% | 49% | |
| 91 | 2% | 38% | |
| 92 | 6% | 35% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 29% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 28% | |
| 95 | 7% | 27% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 20% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 100 | 10% | 18% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 102 | 5% | 7% | |
| 103 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 35 | 2% | 97% | |
| 36 | 3% | 95% | |
| 37 | 4% | 93% | |
| 38 | 20% | 89% | |
| 39 | 17% | 69% | |
| 40 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 41 | 0.6% | 46% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 46% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 45% | |
| 44 | 4% | 45% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 40% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 40% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 39% | |
| 48 | 10% | 38% | |
| 49 | 6% | 28% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 22% | |
| 51 | 10% | 20% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 31% | 97% | Last Result |
| 10 | 11% | 66% | |
| 11 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 12 | 10% | 46% | |
| 13 | 18% | 36% | |
| 14 | 3% | 18% | |
| 15 | 6% | 14% | |
| 16 | 7% | 9% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 5% | 98% | |
| 3 | 6% | 94% | |
| 4 | 35% | 88% | |
| 5 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 6 | 27% | 40% | |
| 7 | 8% | 13% | |
| 8 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 22% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 15% | 77% | |
| 5 | 2% | 62% | Last Result |
| 6 | 41% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 20% | |
| 8 | 12% | 13% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 41% | 91% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 27% | 49% | |
| 4 | 9% | 22% | |
| 5 | 5% | 13% | |
| 6 | 2% | 8% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 35% | 47% | Last Result |
| 2 | 8% | 12% | |
| 3 | 2% | 4% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 254 | 281 | 100% | 271–288 | 269–288 | 267–289 | 264–293 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 221 | 100% | 209–234 | 207–237 | 205–237 | 203–237 |
| Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 222 | 193 | 99.8% | 182–204 | 182–209 | 182–211 | 179–214 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 192 | 96% | 178–198 | 178–201 | 174–202 | 169–209 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 192 | 96% | 177–198 | 177–201 | 174–201 | 168–208 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 117 | 180 | 63% | 166–194 | 164–195 | 163–195 | 156–195 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 158 | 3% | 152–172 | 149–172 | 148–176 | 141–181 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 150 | 0% | 142–164 | 140–164 | 139–168 | 131–172 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 148 | 0% | 141–162 | 139–163 | 137–164 | 130–172 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 143 | 0% | 134–153 | 132–159 | 128–161 | 126–163 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 135 | 0% | 125–146 | 124–151 | 120–153 | 116–157 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 100 | 0% | 92–115 | 92–117 | 92–120 | 86–120 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 89 | 0% | 85–100 | 83–102 | 81–102 | 79–108 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 261 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 266 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 267 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 268 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 269 | 2% | 95% | |
| 270 | 3% | 94% | |
| 271 | 2% | 90% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 273 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 275 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 276 | 2% | 87% | |
| 277 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 278 | 9% | 85% | |
| 279 | 6% | 76% | Median |
| 280 | 1.5% | 70% | |
| 281 | 18% | 68% | |
| 282 | 4% | 50% | |
| 283 | 12% | 46% | |
| 284 | 6% | 34% | |
| 285 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 286 | 3% | 27% | |
| 287 | 8% | 24% | |
| 288 | 13% | 16% | |
| 289 | 2% | 3% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 291 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 205 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 207 | 2% | 96% | |
| 208 | 3% | 94% | |
| 209 | 3% | 91% | |
| 210 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 211 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 212 | 2% | 85% | |
| 213 | 6% | 83% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 215 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 216 | 6% | 76% | |
| 217 | 5% | 70% | |
| 218 | 3% | 65% | |
| 219 | 6% | 63% | Median |
| 220 | 0.6% | 56% | |
| 221 | 10% | 56% | |
| 222 | 0.8% | 46% | |
| 223 | 0.8% | 46% | |
| 224 | 1.4% | 45% | |
| 225 | 2% | 43% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 42% | |
| 227 | 3% | 41% | |
| 228 | 0.6% | 39% | |
| 229 | 7% | 38% | |
| 230 | 0.7% | 31% | |
| 231 | 10% | 30% | |
| 232 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 233 | 0% | 19% | |
| 234 | 10% | 19% | |
| 235 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 237 | 9% | 9% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 182 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 184 | 2% | 89% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 187 | 10% | 85% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 189 | 10% | 74% | Median |
| 190 | 4% | 65% | |
| 191 | 3% | 60% | |
| 192 | 5% | 58% | |
| 193 | 10% | 52% | |
| 194 | 2% | 42% | |
| 195 | 3% | 40% | |
| 196 | 7% | 37% | |
| 197 | 3% | 31% | |
| 198 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 199 | 2% | 27% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 25% | |
| 201 | 12% | 24% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 203 | 0% | 12% | |
| 204 | 4% | 12% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 206 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 208 | 2% | 7% | |
| 209 | 2% | 5% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 211 | 3% | 4% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 174 | 2% | 98% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 96% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 178 | 6% | 96% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 180 | 2% | 90% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 183 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 184 | 2% | 85% | |
| 185 | 3% | 84% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 81% | |
| 187 | 2% | 80% | |
| 188 | 19% | 78% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 60% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 59% | Median |
| 191 | 1.2% | 59% | |
| 192 | 19% | 58% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 38% | |
| 194 | 5% | 38% | |
| 195 | 11% | 33% | |
| 196 | 5% | 22% | |
| 197 | 2% | 18% | |
| 198 | 6% | 16% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 201 | 5% | 9% | |
| 202 | 2% | 4% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 206 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 207 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 209 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 174 | 2% | 98% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 96% | Majority |
| 177 | 7% | 96% | |
| 178 | 2% | 89% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 182 | 2% | 86% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 185 | 3% | 83% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 80% | |
| 187 | 0.8% | 79% | |
| 188 | 19% | 78% | |
| 189 | 0.8% | 59% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 58% | Median |
| 191 | 4% | 58% | |
| 192 | 16% | 54% | |
| 193 | 5% | 38% | |
| 194 | 11% | 33% | |
| 195 | 5% | 22% | |
| 196 | 2% | 17% | |
| 197 | 2% | 15% | |
| 198 | 4% | 13% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 200 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 201 | 6% | 8% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 208 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 163 | 2% | 98% | |
| 164 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 165 | 2% | 94% | |
| 166 | 3% | 92% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 169 | 2% | 87% | |
| 170 | 5% | 85% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 80% | |
| 172 | 3% | 80% | |
| 173 | 3% | 77% | |
| 174 | 1.1% | 73% | |
| 175 | 9% | 72% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 63% | Majority |
| 177 | 10% | 63% | |
| 178 | 0.9% | 53% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 52% | Median |
| 180 | 6% | 51% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 45% | |
| 182 | 0.6% | 45% | |
| 183 | 20% | 44% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 185 | 2% | 24% | |
| 186 | 9% | 22% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 195 | 10% | 10% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 144 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 148 | 2% | 98% | |
| 149 | 5% | 96% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 152 | 6% | 90% | |
| 153 | 2% | 84% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 82% | |
| 155 | 11% | 78% | |
| 156 | 5% | 67% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 62% | |
| 158 | 19% | 62% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 42% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 41% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 41% | |
| 162 | 19% | 40% | |
| 163 | 2% | 22% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 165 | 3% | 19% | |
| 166 | 2% | 16% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 169 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 170 | 2% | 12% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 172 | 6% | 10% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 176 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 140 | 3% | 97% | |
| 141 | 3% | 95% | |
| 142 | 5% | 92% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 144 | 2% | 86% | |
| 145 | 12% | 84% | Median |
| 146 | 9% | 72% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 63% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 62% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 61% | |
| 150 | 19% | 61% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 42% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 41% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 40% | |
| 154 | 1.0% | 40% | |
| 155 | 11% | 39% | |
| 156 | 9% | 28% | |
| 157 | 2% | 19% | |
| 158 | 3% | 16% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 164 | 7% | 11% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 167 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 168 | 2% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 138 | 2% | 97% | |
| 139 | 5% | 95% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 141 | 6% | 90% | |
| 142 | 9% | 84% | Median |
| 143 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 144 | 3% | 74% | |
| 145 | 2% | 72% | |
| 146 | 8% | 69% | |
| 147 | 1.2% | 62% | |
| 148 | 17% | 61% | |
| 149 | 1.4% | 44% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 42% | |
| 151 | 4% | 42% | |
| 152 | 10% | 38% | |
| 153 | 9% | 28% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 19% | |
| 155 | 3% | 19% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 160 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 161 | 2% | 12% | |
| 162 | 5% | 10% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 164 | 3% | 4% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 167 | 0% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 128 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 129 | 0% | 97% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 132 | 5% | 96% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 134 | 3% | 92% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 136 | 4% | 88% | |
| 137 | 13% | 84% | Median |
| 138 | 12% | 71% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 59% | |
| 140 | 4% | 59% | |
| 141 | 4% | 55% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 51% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 51% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 50% | |
| 145 | 10% | 49% | |
| 146 | 13% | 39% | |
| 147 | 9% | 26% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 151 | 3% | 16% | |
| 152 | 2% | 13% | |
| 153 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 157 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 159 | 5% | 8% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 124 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 125 | 5% | 95% | |
| 126 | 6% | 90% | |
| 127 | 9% | 84% | |
| 128 | 7% | 75% | |
| 129 | 2% | 68% | Median |
| 130 | 6% | 66% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 59% | |
| 132 | 4% | 59% | |
| 133 | 4% | 55% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 51% | |
| 135 | 1.4% | 50% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 49% | |
| 137 | 10% | 48% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 38% | |
| 139 | 13% | 38% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 25% | |
| 141 | 9% | 24% | |
| 142 | 2% | 15% | |
| 143 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 146 | 2% | 11% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 151 | 5% | 8% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 153 | 2% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 92 | 9% | 98.8% | |
| 93 | 10% | 90% | |
| 94 | 3% | 80% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 77% | |
| 96 | 1.2% | 76% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 75% | |
| 98 | 11% | 73% | |
| 99 | 6% | 63% | |
| 100 | 10% | 57% | Median |
| 101 | 0.6% | 46% | |
| 102 | 1.5% | 46% | |
| 103 | 0.9% | 44% | |
| 104 | 7% | 43% | |
| 105 | 5% | 37% | |
| 106 | 3% | 32% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 29% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 28% | |
| 109 | 9% | 28% | |
| 110 | 5% | 19% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 115 | 3% | 13% | |
| 116 | 5% | 10% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 120 | 3% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 81 | 2% | 98% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 85 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 86 | 5% | 88% | |
| 87 | 2% | 82% | |
| 88 | 9% | 80% | |
| 89 | 23% | 71% | Median |
| 90 | 11% | 49% | |
| 91 | 2% | 38% | |
| 92 | 6% | 35% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 29% | |
| 94 | 1.1% | 28% | |
| 95 | 7% | 27% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 20% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 100 | 10% | 18% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 102 | 5% | 7% | |
| 103 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 16–25 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.07%