Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 28–29 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 26.4% 24.8–28.1% 24.4–28.6% 24.0–29.0% 23.2–29.8%
Partido Popular 33.0% 23.5% 22.0–25.1% 21.6–25.6% 21.2–26.0% 20.5–26.8%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 22.6% 21.1–24.2% 20.7–24.6% 20.3–25.0% 19.6–25.8%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 17.3% 16.0–18.8% 15.6–19.2% 15.3–19.6% 14.7–20.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 94 85–105 83–108 81–110 76–114
Partido Popular 137 94 81–100 80–102 78–105 76–108
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 87 80–92 78–95 76–97 72–100
Unidos Podemos 71 52 42–60 40–62 39–65 39–68

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 0.4% 99.1%  
79 0.4% 98.7%  
80 0.7% 98%  
81 1.1% 98%  
82 0.7% 97%  
83 1.2% 96%  
84 3% 95%  
85 3% 92%  
86 1.2% 89%  
87 2% 88%  
88 5% 85%  
89 6% 81%  
90 6% 74%  
91 3% 68%  
92 4% 65%  
93 6% 61%  
94 8% 55% Median
95 4% 47%  
96 6% 43%  
97 4% 37%  
98 3% 33%  
99 3% 30%  
100 3% 27%  
101 2% 24%  
102 3% 22%  
103 2% 19%  
104 5% 16%  
105 3% 12%  
106 2% 9%  
107 2% 7%  
108 2% 5%  
109 0.5% 3%  
110 0.7% 3%  
111 0.6% 2%  
112 0.3% 1.4%  
113 0.5% 1.1%  
114 0.4% 0.7%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.7%  
76 0.2% 99.6%  
77 0.4% 99.4%  
78 2% 99.0%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 95%  
81 3% 93%  
82 2% 90%  
83 4% 87%  
84 3% 83%  
85 3% 80%  
86 3% 77%  
87 3% 74%  
88 2% 71%  
89 2% 69%  
90 2% 67%  
91 2% 65%  
92 5% 64%  
93 5% 59%  
94 4% 54% Median
95 15% 50%  
96 6% 35%  
97 11% 29%  
98 2% 18%  
99 5% 16%  
100 2% 11%  
101 3% 9%  
102 2% 7%  
103 1.4% 5%  
104 0.7% 3%  
105 0.5% 3%  
106 0.8% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.3%  
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 0.3% 99.5%  
74 0.4% 99.1%  
75 0.4% 98.8%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 2% 93%  
80 2% 91%  
81 2% 89%  
82 2% 87%  
83 4% 85%  
84 9% 80%  
85 4% 71% Last Result
86 6% 67%  
87 20% 61% Median
88 10% 40%  
89 9% 30%  
90 5% 21%  
91 3% 16%  
92 4% 13%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 7%  
95 1.3% 6%  
96 1.2% 4%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.8%  
39 5% 99.7%  
40 1.5% 95%  
41 2% 94%  
42 3% 92%  
43 3% 89%  
44 3% 87%  
45 3% 84%  
46 4% 81%  
47 2% 77%  
48 11% 75%  
49 3% 63%  
50 3% 60%  
51 6% 57%  
52 4% 51% Median
53 11% 47%  
54 8% 36%  
55 5% 28%  
56 4% 23%  
57 2% 19%  
58 4% 17%  
59 2% 13%  
60 3% 11%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.2% 5%  
64 0.8% 3%  
65 1.0% 3%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1% Last Result
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 254 273 100% 265–282 263–285 260–285 257–286
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 188 230 100% 224–244 222–245 220–247 216–249
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular 169 187 95% 178–197 175–199 173–201 169–204
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 117 180 78% 172–192 169–195 167–197 163–200
Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 222 181 68% 168–188 165–190 162–192 158–196
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 138 0% 128–147 125–150 123–152 119–156
Partido Popular 137 94 0% 81–100 80–102 78–105 76–108
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 87 0% 80–92 78–95 76–97 72–100

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9% Last Result
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.2% 99.7%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.6% 99.4%  
259 0.5% 98.8%  
260 1.2% 98%  
261 0.6% 97%  
262 1.3% 96%  
263 2% 95%  
264 2% 94%  
265 3% 92%  
266 2% 89%  
267 3% 86%  
268 3% 83%  
269 4% 80%  
270 5% 76%  
271 8% 71%  
272 11% 64%  
273 4% 53%  
274 6% 49%  
275 3% 43% Median
276 3% 39%  
277 11% 36%  
278 3% 25%  
279 3% 22%  
280 3% 19%  
281 3% 15%  
282 3% 13%  
283 2% 10%  
284 2% 7%  
285 3% 5%  
286 2% 2%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.9%  
215 0.2% 99.8%  
216 0.3% 99.6%  
217 0.4% 99.4%  
218 0.6% 98.9%  
219 0.7% 98%  
220 0.7% 98%  
221 0.9% 97%  
222 2% 96%  
223 2% 94%  
224 3% 92%  
225 2% 90%  
226 5% 88%  
227 3% 83%  
228 10% 80%  
229 6% 70%  
230 14% 64%  
231 4% 50%  
232 5% 46%  
233 5% 41% Median
234 2% 36%  
235 2% 34%  
236 2% 32%  
237 2% 30%  
238 3% 28%  
239 2% 25%  
240 3% 23%  
241 3% 20%  
242 4% 17%  
243 2% 13%  
244 3% 10%  
245 3% 7%  
246 1.5% 4%  
247 2% 3%  
248 0.4% 1.0%  
249 0.2% 0.6%  
250 0.1% 0.4%  
251 0.1% 0.3%  
252 0.1% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
170 0.5% 99.5%  
171 0.5% 98.9%  
172 0.9% 98%  
173 0.7% 98%  
174 1.3% 97%  
175 1.1% 96%  
176 2% 95% Majority
177 2% 92%  
178 3% 90%  
179 3% 87%  
180 3% 85%  
181 2% 82%  
182 4% 80%  
183 7% 75%  
184 5% 68%  
185 8% 63%  
186 4% 55%  
187 5% 51%  
188 3% 46% Median
189 4% 43%  
190 9% 39%  
191 3% 30%  
192 3% 26%  
193 7% 23%  
194 2% 16%  
195 2% 14%  
196 2% 12%  
197 3% 10%  
198 2% 7%  
199 2% 6%  
200 1.3% 4%  
201 1.0% 3%  
202 1.0% 2%  
203 0.2% 1.0%  
204 0.4% 0.7%  
205 0.2% 0.4%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0.1% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.7%  
163 0.3% 99.6%  
164 0.3% 99.3%  
165 0.5% 99.0%  
166 0.7% 98.5%  
167 0.8% 98%  
168 1.2% 97%  
169 1.4% 96%  
170 1.2% 94%  
171 2% 93%  
172 4% 91%  
173 3% 87%  
174 3% 84%  
175 4% 82%  
176 4% 78% Majority
177 8% 74%  
178 5% 66%  
179 4% 61%  
180 8% 57%  
181 5% 49% Median
182 4% 44%  
183 3% 40%  
184 3% 38%  
185 4% 34%  
186 3% 31%  
187 2% 27%  
188 3% 25%  
189 3% 22%  
190 4% 20%  
191 4% 15%  
192 3% 12%  
193 2% 9%  
194 1.3% 7%  
195 1.4% 5%  
196 1.1% 4%  
197 0.9% 3%  
198 0.6% 2%  
199 0.8% 1.3%  
200 0.2% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  

Partido Popular – Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.3% 99.8%  
158 0.2% 99.5%  
159 0.5% 99.3%  
160 0.5% 98.8%  
161 0.5% 98%  
162 0.7% 98%  
163 0.8% 97%  
164 0.9% 96%  
165 1.2% 95%  
166 1.2% 94%  
167 1.3% 93%  
168 4% 92%  
169 3% 88%  
170 2% 85%  
171 3% 83%  
172 4% 80%  
173 3% 76%  
174 3% 73%  
175 2% 70%  
176 3% 68% Majority
177 4% 65%  
178 2% 61%  
179 3% 59%  
180 3% 56%  
181 5% 53% Median
182 8% 48%  
183 13% 40%  
184 7% 27%  
185 3% 20%  
186 3% 16%  
187 3% 13%  
188 2% 10%  
189 3% 8%  
190 1.2% 6%  
191 1.4% 5%  
192 1.3% 3%  
193 0.6% 2%  
194 0.4% 1.2%  
195 0.2% 0.8%  
196 0.3% 0.6%  
197 0% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.3% 99.7%  
120 0.3% 99.5%  
121 0.2% 99.2%  
122 0.8% 99.0%  
123 0.9% 98%  
124 1.2% 97%  
125 1.3% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 2% 93%  
128 2% 91%  
129 2% 88%  
130 1.4% 87%  
131 2% 85%  
132 6% 83%  
133 3% 77%  
134 4% 74%  
135 10% 70%  
136 3% 60%  
137 2% 57%  
138 5% 54%  
139 4% 49% Median
140 8% 45%  
141 5% 37%  
142 7% 32%  
143 5% 24%  
144 2% 20%  
145 2% 18%  
146 3% 15%  
147 3% 13%  
148 2% 10%  
149 2% 8%  
150 1.1% 6%  
151 1.3% 4%  
152 0.7% 3%  
153 0.8% 2%  
154 0.6% 2%  
155 0.5% 1.1%  
156 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.7%  
76 0.2% 99.6%  
77 0.4% 99.4%  
78 2% 99.0%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 95%  
81 3% 93%  
82 2% 90%  
83 4% 87%  
84 3% 83%  
85 3% 80%  
86 3% 77%  
87 3% 74%  
88 2% 71%  
89 2% 69%  
90 2% 67%  
91 2% 65%  
92 5% 64%  
93 5% 59%  
94 4% 54% Median
95 15% 50%  
96 6% 35%  
97 11% 29%  
98 2% 18%  
99 5% 16%  
100 2% 11%  
101 3% 9%  
102 2% 7%  
103 1.4% 5%  
104 0.7% 3%  
105 0.5% 3%  
106 0.8% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.3%  
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 0.3% 99.5%  
74 0.4% 99.1%  
75 0.4% 98.8%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 2% 93%  
80 2% 91%  
81 2% 89%  
82 2% 87%  
83 4% 85%  
84 9% 80%  
85 4% 71% Last Result
86 6% 67%  
87 20% 61% Median
88 10% 40%  
89 9% 30%  
90 5% 21%  
91 3% 16%  
92 4% 13%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 7%  
95 1.3% 6%  
96 1.2% 4%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations