Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 4–8 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español |
22.6% |
25.8% |
24.2–27.6% |
23.7–28.1% |
23.3–28.5% |
22.5–29.3% |
Partido Popular |
33.0% |
24.3% |
22.7–26.0% |
22.2–26.5% |
21.8–26.9% |
21.1–27.7% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
13.1% |
21.1% |
19.6–22.7% |
19.1–23.2% |
18.8–23.6% |
18.1–24.4% |
Unidos Podemos |
21.2% |
17.4% |
16.0–18.9% |
15.6–19.3% |
15.2–19.7% |
14.6–20.5% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí |
2.7% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.3–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.9–4.6% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català |
2.0% |
1.5% |
1.2–2.1% |
1.1–2.3% |
1.0–2.5% |
0.8–2.8% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal |
1.2% |
1.3% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.8–2.0% |
0.8–2.1% |
0.6–2.4% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco |
1.2% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.7% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.0% |
0.6–2.3% |
Euskal Herria Bildu |
0.8% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.5% |
0.5–1.7% |
0.4–1.9% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.0–0.7% |
0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
86 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
87 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
88 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
89 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
90 |
0% |
98% |
|
91 |
4% |
98% |
|
92 |
25% |
93% |
|
93 |
2% |
69% |
|
94 |
5% |
67% |
|
95 |
0.7% |
61% |
|
96 |
2% |
61% |
|
97 |
34% |
59% |
Median |
98 |
0.2% |
25% |
|
99 |
1.0% |
24% |
|
100 |
0.4% |
23% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
102 |
3% |
23% |
|
103 |
0.6% |
20% |
|
104 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
19% |
|
106 |
0.4% |
19% |
|
107 |
0% |
19% |
|
108 |
0% |
19% |
|
109 |
7% |
19% |
|
110 |
2% |
11% |
|
111 |
2% |
10% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
113 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
114 |
3% |
6% |
|
115 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
116 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
117 |
0% |
2% |
|
118 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
119 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
120 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
121 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
122 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
123 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
80 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
81 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
82 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
83 |
0% |
97% |
|
84 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
85 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
86 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
87 |
2% |
96% |
|
88 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
89 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
90 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
91 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
92 |
25% |
92% |
|
93 |
3% |
66% |
|
94 |
6% |
64% |
|
95 |
34% |
58% |
Median |
96 |
6% |
24% |
|
97 |
2% |
18% |
|
98 |
0% |
16% |
|
99 |
5% |
16% |
|
100 |
2% |
11% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
102 |
3% |
9% |
|
103 |
0% |
6% |
|
104 |
0% |
6% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
106 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
107 |
0% |
6% |
|
108 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
109 |
4% |
5% |
|
110 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
111 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
112 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
113 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
114 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
115 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
116 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
117 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
118 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
63 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
65 |
4% |
95% |
|
66 |
2% |
91% |
|
67 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
88% |
|
69 |
1.2% |
88% |
|
70 |
3% |
87% |
|
71 |
8% |
84% |
|
72 |
5% |
76% |
|
73 |
3% |
71% |
|
74 |
37% |
68% |
Median |
75 |
0.5% |
32% |
|
76 |
2% |
31% |
|
77 |
1.1% |
29% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
79 |
25% |
28% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
81 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
82 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
84 |
0% |
2% |
|
85 |
2% |
2% |
|
86 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
88 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
90 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
91 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
39 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
40 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
41 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
42 |
3% |
97% |
|
43 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
46 |
2% |
91% |
|
47 |
0% |
90% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
90% |
|
49 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
50 |
6% |
89% |
|
51 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
52 |
0.6% |
83% |
|
53 |
0.5% |
82% |
|
54 |
12% |
81% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
69% |
|
56 |
25% |
69% |
Median |
57 |
2% |
44% |
|
58 |
1.1% |
42% |
|
59 |
2% |
41% |
|
60 |
0.4% |
39% |
|
61 |
36% |
38% |
|
62 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
70 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
72 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
9 |
7% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
10 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
11 |
34% |
92% |
|
12 |
9% |
57% |
Median |
13 |
32% |
48% |
|
14 |
8% |
16% |
|
15 |
2% |
8% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
18 |
5% |
5% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
2% |
91% |
|
4 |
6% |
89% |
|
5 |
29% |
83% |
|
6 |
47% |
54% |
Median |
7 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
8 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
10 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
42% |
95% |
|
4 |
0.8% |
53% |
|
5 |
10% |
52% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
33% |
42% |
|
7 |
9% |
9% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
2 |
8% |
98% |
Last Result |
3 |
36% |
90% |
|
4 |
17% |
54% |
Median |
5 |
7% |
37% |
|
6 |
25% |
30% |
|
7 |
4% |
5% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
9 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
43% |
100% |
|
1 |
52% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
5% |
|
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
3% |
10% |
|
2 |
6% |
6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
254 |
266 |
100% |
263–276 |
263–279 |
260–281 |
255–286 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos |
188 |
229 |
100% |
220–232 |
208–234 |
208–238 |
206–244 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular |
222 |
192 |
100% |
184–205 |
184–208 |
184–208 |
181–213 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu |
180 |
181 |
92% |
177–187 |
173–190 |
168–193 |
161–199 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
117 |
171 |
22% |
163–182 |
158–187 |
154–187 |
154–196 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català |
173 |
173 |
11% |
166–179 |
166–183 |
158–183 |
152–191 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu |
167 |
172 |
12% |
166–176 |
162–182 |
160–182 |
148–186 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario |
170 |
169 |
6% |
163–173 |
159–177 |
157–180 |
150–188 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
169 |
169 |
6% |
162–172 |
158–176 |
155–179 |
149–187 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu |
163 |
164 |
3% |
156–168 |
155–175 |
152–177 |
146–179 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos |
156 |
158 |
0.4% |
148–161 |
145–168 |
142–168 |
137–171 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español |
85 |
97 |
0% |
92–110 |
91–114 |
91–116 |
89–122 |
Partido Popular |
137 |
95 |
0% |
92–100 |
87–109 |
82–109 |
80–118 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
248 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
250 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
252 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
254 |
0% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
255 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
257 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
259 |
0% |
98% |
|
260 |
2% |
98% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
263 |
31% |
96% |
|
264 |
0.6% |
65% |
|
265 |
6% |
64% |
|
266 |
35% |
58% |
Median |
267 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
268 |
1.4% |
22% |
|
269 |
1.3% |
21% |
|
270 |
0.9% |
20% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
19% |
|
272 |
0.3% |
19% |
|
273 |
4% |
19% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
276 |
6% |
14% |
|
277 |
2% |
8% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
279 |
2% |
6% |
|
280 |
0% |
4% |
|
281 |
2% |
4% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
283 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
286 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
287 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
288 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
188 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
189 |
0% |
100% |
|
190 |
0% |
100% |
|
191 |
0% |
100% |
|
192 |
0% |
100% |
|
193 |
0% |
100% |
|
194 |
0% |
100% |
|
195 |
0% |
100% |
|
196 |
0% |
100% |
|
197 |
0% |
100% |
|
198 |
0% |
100% |
|
199 |
0% |
100% |
|
200 |
0% |
100% |
|
201 |
0% |
100% |
|
202 |
0% |
100% |
|
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
206 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
207 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
208 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
209 |
0% |
95% |
|
210 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
211 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
212 |
0% |
95% |
|
213 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
214 |
0% |
94% |
|
215 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
216 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
217 |
0% |
94% |
|
218 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
220 |
6% |
94% |
|
221 |
0% |
87% |
|
222 |
3% |
87% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
224 |
2% |
85% |
|
225 |
0.1% |
83% |
|
226 |
0.3% |
83% |
|
227 |
27% |
82% |
Median |
228 |
4% |
55% |
|
229 |
2% |
51% |
|
230 |
6% |
49% |
|
231 |
0.7% |
43% |
|
232 |
34% |
43% |
|
233 |
3% |
8% |
|
234 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
235 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
236 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
238 |
2% |
4% |
|
239 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
240 |
0% |
2% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
242 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
243 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
244 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
245 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
176 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
177 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
178 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
179 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
180 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
182 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
183 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
184 |
24% |
99.4% |
|
185 |
0% |
75% |
|
186 |
0.4% |
75% |
|
187 |
0.1% |
75% |
|
188 |
0.1% |
74% |
|
189 |
2% |
74% |
|
190 |
1.0% |
72% |
|
191 |
2% |
71% |
|
192 |
35% |
69% |
Median |
193 |
7% |
34% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
27% |
|
195 |
0.9% |
27% |
|
196 |
2% |
26% |
|
197 |
0.5% |
24% |
|
198 |
0.7% |
24% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
200 |
5% |
23% |
|
201 |
1.4% |
18% |
|
202 |
0.2% |
17% |
|
203 |
2% |
17% |
|
204 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
205 |
6% |
13% |
|
206 |
2% |
7% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
208 |
3% |
5% |
|
209 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
210 |
0% |
2% |
|
211 |
0% |
2% |
|
212 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
213 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
214 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
215 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
152 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
156 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
157 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
158 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
159 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
161 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
162 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
164 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
165 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
166 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
167 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
168 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
169 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
170 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
171 |
0% |
96% |
|
172 |
0% |
96% |
|
173 |
2% |
96% |
|
174 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
175 |
2% |
94% |
|
176 |
0.4% |
92% |
Majority |
177 |
4% |
91% |
|
178 |
24% |
87% |
|
179 |
6% |
63% |
|
180 |
0.5% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
181 |
35% |
56% |
|
182 |
6% |
22% |
|
183 |
2% |
15% |
|
184 |
2% |
13% |
|
185 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
186 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
187 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
188 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
189 |
1.2% |
10% |
|
190 |
3% |
8% |
|
191 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
192 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
193 |
2% |
4% |
|
194 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
195 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
197 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
198 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
199 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
200 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
201 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
203 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
204 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
205 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
117 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
118 |
0% |
100% |
|
119 |
0% |
100% |
|
120 |
0% |
100% |
|
121 |
0% |
100% |
|
122 |
0% |
100% |
|
123 |
0% |
100% |
|
124 |
0% |
100% |
|
125 |
0% |
100% |
|
126 |
0% |
100% |
|
127 |
0% |
100% |
|
128 |
0% |
100% |
|
129 |
0% |
100% |
|
130 |
0% |
100% |
|
131 |
0% |
100% |
|
132 |
0% |
100% |
|
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
154 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0% |
96% |
|
156 |
0% |
96% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
158 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
160 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
162 |
0% |
95% |
|
163 |
5% |
95% |
|
164 |
0% |
90% |
|
165 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
166 |
5% |
89% |
|
167 |
2% |
84% |
|
168 |
0.1% |
82% |
|
169 |
0.3% |
82% |
|
170 |
0.4% |
82% |
|
171 |
58% |
82% |
Median |
172 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
173 |
0.5% |
23% |
|
174 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
175 |
0.4% |
23% |
|
176 |
1.0% |
22% |
Majority |
177 |
0% |
21% |
|
178 |
0% |
21% |
|
179 |
3% |
21% |
|
180 |
6% |
18% |
|
181 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
182 |
3% |
12% |
|
183 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
184 |
0% |
8% |
|
185 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
186 |
2% |
7% |
|
187 |
4% |
5% |
|
188 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
189 |
0% |
2% |
|
190 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
191 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
192 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
193 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
194 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
195 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
197 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
141 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
143 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
144 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
146 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
147 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
148 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
149 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
152 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
155 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
156 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
157 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
158 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
160 |
0% |
97% |
|
161 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
162 |
0% |
96% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
165 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
166 |
30% |
96% |
|
167 |
0.5% |
66% |
|
168 |
2% |
65% |
|
169 |
0.2% |
63% |
|
170 |
2% |
63% |
|
171 |
6% |
61% |
Median |
172 |
0.2% |
55% |
|
173 |
6% |
55% |
Last Result |
174 |
3% |
48% |
|
175 |
35% |
46% |
|
176 |
0.5% |
11% |
Majority |
177 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
178 |
0% |
10% |
|
179 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
180 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
181 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
182 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
183 |
6% |
8% |
|
184 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
185 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
186 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
187 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
188 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
189 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
190 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
191 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
192 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
193 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
195 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
196 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
197 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
138 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
140 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
141 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
142 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
143 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
144 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
146 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
147 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
148 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
149 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
151 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
152 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
153 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
154 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
155 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
157 |
0% |
98.7% |
|
158 |
0% |
98.6% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
160 |
2% |
98.5% |
|
161 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
162 |
4% |
96% |
|
163 |
0% |
92% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
92% |
|
165 |
0% |
92% |
|
166 |
2% |
92% |
|
167 |
25% |
89% |
Last Result |
168 |
6% |
65% |
|
169 |
0.3% |
58% |
Median |
170 |
0.4% |
58% |
|
171 |
2% |
58% |
|
172 |
35% |
55% |
|
173 |
0.3% |
21% |
|
174 |
2% |
20% |
|
175 |
6% |
19% |
|
176 |
3% |
12% |
Majority |
177 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
178 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
179 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
180 |
2% |
8% |
|
181 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
182 |
3% |
6% |
|
183 |
0% |
2% |
|
184 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
185 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
186 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
187 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
188 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
189 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
190 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
145 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
147 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
149 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
150 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
151 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
152 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
155 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
156 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
157 |
2% |
98% |
|
158 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
159 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
160 |
3% |
95% |
|
161 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
162 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
163 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
164 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
165 |
2% |
89% |
|
166 |
2% |
87% |
|
167 |
1.4% |
85% |
|
168 |
6% |
83% |
|
169 |
34% |
78% |
|
170 |
0.5% |
44% |
Last Result, Median |
171 |
6% |
43% |
|
172 |
24% |
37% |
|
173 |
6% |
13% |
|
174 |
0% |
6% |
|
175 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
176 |
0.1% |
6% |
Majority |
177 |
2% |
6% |
|
178 |
0% |
4% |
|
179 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
180 |
2% |
4% |
|
181 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
182 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
183 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
184 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
185 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
187 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
188 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
189 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
190 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
191 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
192 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
193 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
194 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
195 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
196 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
197 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
144 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
146 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
147 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
149 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
150 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
151 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
153 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
155 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
156 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
157 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
158 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
159 |
4% |
95% |
|
160 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
90% |
|
162 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
90% |
|
164 |
2% |
90% |
|
165 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
166 |
3% |
86% |
|
167 |
6% |
83% |
|
168 |
0% |
78% |
|
169 |
34% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
170 |
4% |
43% |
|
171 |
29% |
40% |
|
172 |
4% |
10% |
|
173 |
0% |
6% |
|
174 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
175 |
0% |
6% |
|
176 |
2% |
6% |
Majority |
177 |
0% |
4% |
|
178 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
179 |
2% |
4% |
|
180 |
0% |
2% |
|
181 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
182 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
183 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
186 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
187 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
188 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
189 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
190 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
191 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
192 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
193 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
194 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
195 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
196 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
137 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
139 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
140 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
141 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
142 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
144 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
146 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
147 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
150 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
151 |
0% |
98% |
|
152 |
2% |
98% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
154 |
0% |
96% |
|
155 |
2% |
96% |
|
156 |
9% |
94% |
|
157 |
2% |
86% |
|
158 |
0% |
83% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
83% |
|
160 |
26% |
83% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
162 |
1.0% |
57% |
Median |
163 |
0.9% |
56% |
Last Result |
164 |
34% |
55% |
|
165 |
1.2% |
20% |
|
166 |
0.4% |
19% |
|
167 |
2% |
19% |
|
168 |
7% |
16% |
|
169 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
171 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
172 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
173 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
174 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
175 |
4% |
6% |
|
176 |
0.1% |
3% |
Majority |
177 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
178 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
179 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
180 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
181 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
182 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
183 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
184 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
185 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
186 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
187 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
126 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
127 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
128 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
129 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
130 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
131 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
133 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
136 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
137 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
138 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
139 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
140 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
141 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
142 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
143 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
144 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
145 |
4% |
96% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
92% |
|
147 |
0% |
92% |
|
148 |
31% |
92% |
|
149 |
0% |
61% |
|
150 |
2% |
61% |
|
151 |
2% |
59% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
153 |
2% |
57% |
Median |
154 |
0.7% |
55% |
|
155 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
156 |
0.2% |
53% |
Last Result |
157 |
2% |
53% |
|
158 |
34% |
51% |
|
159 |
6% |
17% |
|
160 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
161 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
162 |
3% |
10% |
|
163 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
165 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
166 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
167 |
0% |
5% |
|
168 |
4% |
5% |
|
169 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
170 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
171 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
172 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
173 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
174 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
175 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
176 |
0% |
0.4% |
Majority |
177 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
178 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
179 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
86 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
87 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
88 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
89 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
90 |
0% |
98% |
|
91 |
4% |
98% |
|
92 |
25% |
93% |
|
93 |
2% |
69% |
|
94 |
5% |
67% |
|
95 |
0.7% |
61% |
|
96 |
2% |
61% |
|
97 |
34% |
59% |
Median |
98 |
0.2% |
25% |
|
99 |
1.0% |
24% |
|
100 |
0.4% |
23% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
102 |
3% |
23% |
|
103 |
0.6% |
20% |
|
104 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
19% |
|
106 |
0.4% |
19% |
|
107 |
0% |
19% |
|
108 |
0% |
19% |
|
109 |
7% |
19% |
|
110 |
2% |
11% |
|
111 |
2% |
10% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
113 |
1.5% |
8% |
|
114 |
3% |
6% |
|
115 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
116 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
117 |
0% |
2% |
|
118 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
119 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
120 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
121 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
122 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
123 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
80 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
81 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
82 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
83 |
0% |
97% |
|
84 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
85 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
86 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
87 |
2% |
96% |
|
88 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
89 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
90 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
91 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
92 |
25% |
92% |
|
93 |
3% |
66% |
|
94 |
6% |
64% |
|
95 |
34% |
58% |
Median |
96 |
6% |
24% |
|
97 |
2% |
18% |
|
98 |
0% |
16% |
|
99 |
5% |
16% |
|
100 |
2% |
11% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
102 |
3% |
9% |
|
103 |
0% |
6% |
|
104 |
0% |
6% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
106 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
107 |
0% |
6% |
|
108 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
109 |
4% |
5% |
|
110 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
111 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
112 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
113 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
114 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
115 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
116 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
117 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
118 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 4–8 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 3.02%