Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 7–8 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 28.8% | 26.8–30.9% | 26.2–31.5% | 25.7–32.0% | 24.8–33.0% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 25.6% | 23.7–27.7% | 23.2–28.3% | 22.7–28.8% | 21.8–29.8% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 21.1% | 19.4–23.1% | 18.9–23.6% | 18.4–24.1% | 17.6–25.1% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 13.1% | 11.7–14.8% | 11.3–15.2% | 11.0–15.7% | 10.3–16.5% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–2.8% | 0.8–3.2% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.5% | 0.6–2.8% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.2–2.0% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.0–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 120 | 106–126 | 101–127 | 98–127 | 95–129 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 100 | 92–111 | 90–114 | 88–118 | 86–122 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 70 | 63–78 | 62–83 | 61–85 | 58–91 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 31 | 25–39 | 25–39 | 24–41 | 23–47 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 14 | 9–16 | 9–17 | 8–17 | 7–19 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 4–8 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 1–11 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Vox | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 2–10 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 3 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 1–7 | 0–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 99 | 2% | 97% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 104 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 106 | 3% | 92% | |
| 107 | 3% | 90% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 109 | 6% | 85% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 111 | 2% | 78% | |
| 112 | 7% | 76% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 70% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 69% | |
| 115 | 2% | 67% | |
| 116 | 2% | 66% | |
| 117 | 5% | 63% | |
| 118 | 3% | 59% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 120 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 121 | 0.6% | 45% | |
| 122 | 2% | 44% | |
| 123 | 8% | 42% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 34% | |
| 125 | 2% | 33% | |
| 126 | 24% | 31% | |
| 127 | 5% | 7% | |
| 128 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 88 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 91 | 5% | 95% | |
| 92 | 2% | 90% | |
| 93 | 6% | 89% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 83% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 81% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 80% | |
| 98 | 9% | 79% | |
| 99 | 20% | 70% | |
| 100 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 101 | 5% | 49% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 44% | |
| 103 | 5% | 43% | |
| 104 | 9% | 37% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 106 | 5% | 27% | |
| 107 | 6% | 22% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 111 | 5% | 14% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 113 | 3% | 9% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 11% | 92% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 81% | |
| 65 | 2% | 80% | |
| 66 | 3% | 78% | |
| 67 | 3% | 76% | |
| 68 | 9% | 73% | |
| 69 | 6% | 64% | |
| 70 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 71 | 3% | 38% | |
| 72 | 4% | 35% | |
| 73 | 5% | 31% | |
| 74 | 3% | 26% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 23% | |
| 76 | 3% | 23% | |
| 77 | 4% | 19% | |
| 78 | 7% | 16% | |
| 79 | 2% | 9% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 3% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 6% | 96% | |
| 26 | 3% | 90% | |
| 27 | 20% | 87% | |
| 28 | 4% | 66% | |
| 29 | 6% | 62% | |
| 30 | 5% | 57% | |
| 31 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 32 | 8% | 39% | |
| 33 | 5% | 31% | |
| 34 | 2% | 25% | |
| 35 | 5% | 23% | |
| 36 | 3% | 18% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 15% | |
| 38 | 4% | 14% | |
| 39 | 6% | 11% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 41 | 2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 10% | 95% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 86% | |
| 11 | 7% | 83% | |
| 12 | 13% | 76% | |
| 13 | 6% | 63% | |
| 14 | 25% | 57% | Median |
| 15 | 22% | 32% | |
| 16 | 4% | 10% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 3 | 3% | 98% | |
| 4 | 37% | 95% | |
| 5 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 37% | |
| 7 | 9% | 29% | |
| 8 | 12% | 20% | Last Result |
| 9 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 29% | 29% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 65% | Median |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 10% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 11% | 89% | |
| 5 | 13% | 78% | Last Result |
| 6 | 54% | 64% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 11% | |
| 8 | 3% | 6% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 2 | 37% | 93% | Last Result |
| 3 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 4 | 30% | 40% | |
| 5 | 4% | 10% | |
| 6 | 2% | 6% | |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | |
| 1 | 36% | 69% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 31% | 33% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 289 | 100% | 283–296 | 282–299 | 280–299 | 276–300 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 221 | 100% | 208–232 | 206–233 | 202–235 | 198–238 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 220 | 100% | 208–228 | 205–230 | 204–230 | 201–233 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 190 | 94% | 179–196 | 172–199 | 168–200 | 165–201 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 175 | 48% | 165–190 | 165–191 | 164–196 | 160–201 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 171 | 36% | 162–185 | 161–186 | 159–192 | 156–196 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 169 | 32% | 161–183 | 160–186 | 158–191 | 155–194 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 170 | 33% | 162–184 | 161–187 | 158–191 | 156–195 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 179 | 55% | 164–187 | 163–188 | 158–191 | 154–193 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 171 | 17% | 155–181 | 154–181 | 148–183 | 144–185 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 167 | 12% | 152–177 | 149–179 | 146–181 | 140–182 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 160 | 2% | 146–169 | 142–171 | 140–174 | 133–176 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 157 | 0.1% | 142–164 | 138–169 | 137–172 | 129–174 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 151 | 0% | 136–159 | 134–165 | 131–167 | 123–168 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 120 | 0% | 106–126 | 101–127 | 98–127 | 95–129 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 100 | 0% | 92–112 | 90–115 | 88–119 | 86–123 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 100 | 0% | 92–111 | 90–114 | 88–118 | 86–122 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0% | 100% | |
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 100% | |
| 263 | 0% | 100% | |
| 264 | 0% | 100% | |
| 265 | 0% | 100% | |
| 266 | 0% | 100% | |
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 100% | |
| 269 | 0% | 100% | |
| 270 | 0% | 100% | |
| 271 | 0% | 100% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 273 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 276 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 278 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 280 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 281 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 282 | 3% | 96% | |
| 283 | 4% | 93% | |
| 284 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 285 | 4% | 87% | |
| 286 | 6% | 83% | |
| 287 | 16% | 77% | |
| 288 | 6% | 61% | |
| 289 | 6% | 55% | |
| 290 | 8% | 49% | Median |
| 291 | 6% | 41% | |
| 292 | 5% | 35% | |
| 293 | 3% | 30% | |
| 294 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 295 | 16% | 27% | |
| 296 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 297 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 298 | 3% | 9% | |
| 299 | 4% | 6% | |
| 300 | 2% | 2% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 303 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 203 | 2% | 97% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 206 | 5% | 95% | |
| 207 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 208 | 2% | 90% | |
| 209 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 211 | 3% | 87% | |
| 212 | 3% | 85% | |
| 213 | 2% | 82% | |
| 214 | 10% | 80% | |
| 215 | 2% | 71% | |
| 216 | 3% | 68% | |
| 217 | 6% | 65% | |
| 218 | 3% | 59% | |
| 219 | 5% | 56% | |
| 220 | 0.5% | 51% | |
| 221 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 222 | 9% | 50% | |
| 223 | 22% | 41% | |
| 224 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 225 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 226 | 0.4% | 18% | |
| 227 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 228 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 229 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 230 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 231 | 3% | 14% | |
| 232 | 2% | 10% | |
| 233 | 6% | 8% | |
| 234 | 0% | 3% | |
| 235 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 236 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 237 | 0% | 2% | |
| 238 | 2% | 2% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 204 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 205 | 3% | 97% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 207 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 208 | 4% | 93% | |
| 209 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 210 | 6% | 88% | |
| 211 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 212 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 213 | 6% | 80% | |
| 214 | 3% | 75% | |
| 215 | 6% | 72% | |
| 216 | 1.5% | 66% | |
| 217 | 2% | 64% | |
| 218 | 5% | 62% | |
| 219 | 6% | 57% | |
| 220 | 0.9% | 51% | Median |
| 221 | 3% | 50% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 47% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 224 | 10% | 45% | |
| 225 | 17% | 35% | |
| 226 | 4% | 19% | |
| 227 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 228 | 5% | 14% | |
| 229 | 2% | 8% | |
| 230 | 5% | 6% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 232 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 176 | 2% | 94% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 178 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 179 | 5% | 91% | |
| 180 | 2% | 85% | |
| 181 | 2% | 83% | |
| 182 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 183 | 11% | 80% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 69% | |
| 185 | 3% | 69% | |
| 186 | 5% | 65% | |
| 187 | 2% | 61% | |
| 188 | 1.0% | 59% | |
| 189 | 3% | 58% | |
| 190 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 191 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 192 | 7% | 44% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 37% | |
| 194 | 7% | 36% | |
| 195 | 3% | 29% | |
| 196 | 16% | 26% | |
| 197 | 4% | 10% | |
| 198 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 199 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 200 | 3% | 4% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 165 | 7% | 96% | |
| 166 | 2% | 89% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 169 | 2% | 86% | |
| 170 | 4% | 84% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 80% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 173 | 12% | 78% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 66% | Last Result |
| 175 | 17% | 65% | |
| 176 | 1.4% | 48% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 47% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 44% | |
| 179 | 7% | 44% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 37% | |
| 181 | 11% | 36% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 183 | 0.7% | 24% | |
| 184 | 3% | 23% | |
| 185 | 2% | 20% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 18% | |
| 187 | 4% | 17% | |
| 188 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 189 | 2% | 12% | |
| 190 | 5% | 10% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 200 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 159 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 161 | 2% | 95% | |
| 162 | 6% | 93% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 165 | 4% | 86% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 83% | |
| 167 | 2% | 81% | |
| 168 | 2% | 79% | |
| 169 | 25% | 77% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 52% | Last Result |
| 171 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 172 | 0.5% | 47% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 46% | |
| 174 | 3% | 46% | |
| 175 | 6% | 43% | |
| 176 | 7% | 36% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.9% | 29% | |
| 178 | 5% | 28% | |
| 179 | 4% | 23% | |
| 180 | 2% | 20% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 183 | 2% | 17% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 185 | 7% | 14% | |
| 186 | 2% | 7% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 188 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 158 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 161 | 8% | 95% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 164 | 3% | 86% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 83% | |
| 166 | 3% | 82% | |
| 167 | 10% | 79% | |
| 168 | 2% | 68% | |
| 169 | 17% | 67% | Last Result |
| 170 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 171 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 173 | 7% | 45% | |
| 174 | 2% | 39% | |
| 175 | 4% | 36% | |
| 176 | 8% | 32% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.4% | 24% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 22% | |
| 179 | 3% | 22% | |
| 180 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 182 | 2% | 17% | |
| 183 | 6% | 14% | |
| 184 | 2% | 9% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 186 | 2% | 6% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 158 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 161 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 162 | 7% | 94% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 165 | 4% | 86% | |
| 166 | 3% | 82% | |
| 167 | 10% | 80% | |
| 168 | 2% | 70% | |
| 169 | 2% | 68% | Last Result |
| 170 | 18% | 66% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 47% | Median |
| 172 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 46% | |
| 174 | 8% | 45% | |
| 175 | 4% | 37% | |
| 176 | 5% | 33% | Majority |
| 177 | 5% | 29% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 180 | 4% | 22% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 182 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 183 | 2% | 16% | |
| 184 | 5% | 14% | |
| 185 | 2% | 8% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 187 | 2% | 6% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0% | 3% | |
| 191 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 163 | 2% | 95% | |
| 164 | 7% | 94% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 166 | 2% | 86% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 84% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 169 | 2% | 83% | |
| 170 | 4% | 81% | |
| 171 | 2% | 77% | |
| 172 | 5% | 75% | |
| 173 | 7% | 71% | |
| 174 | 6% | 64% | |
| 175 | 3% | 57% | |
| 176 | 1.2% | 55% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.5% | 54% | |
| 178 | 2% | 53% | |
| 179 | 18% | 51% | Median |
| 180 | 2% | 33% | Last Result |
| 181 | 10% | 31% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 183 | 5% | 20% | |
| 184 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 187 | 6% | 13% | |
| 188 | 2% | 7% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 190 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 191 | 2% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 154 | 3% | 95% | |
| 155 | 3% | 92% | |
| 156 | 4% | 89% | |
| 157 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 159 | 0.9% | 83% | |
| 160 | 2% | 82% | |
| 161 | 2% | 80% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 163 | 7% | 78% | |
| 164 | 8% | 71% | |
| 165 | 3% | 63% | |
| 166 | 5% | 60% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 55% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 53% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 53% | |
| 170 | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 171 | 26% | 50% | |
| 172 | 1.4% | 24% | |
| 173 | 2% | 23% | Last Result |
| 174 | 4% | 21% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 17% | |
| 176 | 2% | 17% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 15% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 181 | 7% | 10% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 183 | 2% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 149 | 2% | 96% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 152 | 3% | 92% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 154 | 4% | 89% | |
| 155 | 4% | 85% | |
| 156 | 2% | 81% | |
| 157 | 1.5% | 80% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 78% | |
| 159 | 2% | 77% | |
| 160 | 4% | 75% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 162 | 3% | 70% | |
| 163 | 6% | 66% | |
| 164 | 5% | 60% | |
| 165 | 3% | 55% | |
| 166 | 0.8% | 53% | |
| 167 | 2% | 52% | Last Result |
| 168 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 169 | 16% | 47% | |
| 170 | 9% | 31% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 21% | |
| 172 | 2% | 21% | |
| 173 | 4% | 19% | |
| 174 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 175 | 2% | 14% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 12% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 179 | 6% | 9% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 181 | 2% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 142 | 3% | 97% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 144 | 2% | 93% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 146 | 3% | 91% | |
| 147 | 3% | 88% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 149 | 2% | 85% | |
| 150 | 5% | 84% | |
| 151 | 6% | 79% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 73% | |
| 153 | 2% | 72% | |
| 154 | 7% | 71% | |
| 155 | 4% | 63% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 59% | |
| 157 | 4% | 59% | |
| 158 | 2% | 55% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 53% | |
| 160 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 161 | 25% | 48% | |
| 162 | 1.5% | 23% | |
| 163 | 1.5% | 22% | Last Result |
| 164 | 3% | 20% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 166 | 2% | 16% | |
| 167 | 4% | 15% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 169 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 171 | 6% | 9% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 176 | 2% | 2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 138 | 3% | 97% | |
| 139 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 142 | 3% | 92% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 144 | 3% | 88% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 146 | 4% | 84% | |
| 147 | 1.5% | 80% | |
| 148 | 2% | 79% | |
| 149 | 5% | 76% | |
| 150 | 9% | 71% | |
| 151 | 1.2% | 63% | |
| 152 | 1.4% | 62% | |
| 153 | 5% | 60% | |
| 154 | 1.1% | 55% | |
| 155 | 2% | 54% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 53% | |
| 157 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 158 | 2% | 40% | |
| 159 | 16% | 38% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 22% | |
| 161 | 3% | 21% | Last Result |
| 162 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 164 | 6% | 16% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 169 | 6% | 9% | |
| 170 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 174 | 2% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 134 | 3% | 96% | |
| 135 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 136 | 3% | 92% | |
| 137 | 3% | 90% | |
| 138 | 2% | 87% | |
| 139 | 1.1% | 85% | |
| 140 | 0.9% | 84% | |
| 141 | 5% | 83% | |
| 142 | 2% | 79% | |
| 143 | 2% | 76% | |
| 144 | 10% | 75% | |
| 145 | 0.9% | 65% | |
| 146 | 2% | 64% | |
| 147 | 2% | 62% | |
| 148 | 4% | 60% | |
| 149 | 2% | 56% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 54% | |
| 151 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 152 | 2% | 41% | |
| 153 | 16% | 39% | |
| 154 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 155 | 3% | 21% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 18% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 158 | 6% | 17% | |
| 159 | 2% | 11% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 165 | 6% | 8% | |
| 166 | 0% | 3% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 168 | 2% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 99 | 2% | 97% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 104 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 106 | 3% | 92% | |
| 107 | 3% | 90% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 109 | 6% | 85% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 111 | 2% | 78% | |
| 112 | 7% | 76% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 70% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 69% | |
| 115 | 2% | 67% | |
| 116 | 2% | 66% | |
| 117 | 5% | 63% | |
| 118 | 3% | 59% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 120 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 121 | 0.6% | 45% | |
| 122 | 2% | 44% | |
| 123 | 8% | 42% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 34% | |
| 125 | 2% | 33% | |
| 126 | 24% | 31% | |
| 127 | 5% | 7% | |
| 128 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 90 | 2% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 5% | 93% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 94 | 7% | 88% | |
| 95 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 96 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 80% | |
| 98 | 5% | 80% | |
| 99 | 5% | 75% | |
| 100 | 20% | 69% | |
| 101 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 102 | 3% | 47% | |
| 103 | 6% | 43% | |
| 104 | 9% | 38% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 29% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 107 | 6% | 27% | |
| 108 | 6% | 21% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 112 | 5% | 13% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 114 | 3% | 9% | |
| 115 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 88 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 91 | 5% | 95% | |
| 92 | 2% | 90% | |
| 93 | 6% | 89% | |
| 94 | 0.9% | 83% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 81% | |
| 97 | 1.3% | 80% | |
| 98 | 9% | 79% | |
| 99 | 20% | 70% | |
| 100 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 101 | 5% | 49% | |
| 102 | 0.9% | 44% | |
| 103 | 5% | 43% | |
| 104 | 9% | 37% | |
| 105 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 106 | 5% | 27% | |
| 107 | 6% | 22% | |
| 108 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 111 | 5% | 14% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 113 | 3% | 9% | |
| 114 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 115 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): ABC
- Fieldwork period: 7–8 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.07%