Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 17–22 July 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 26.1% | 25.0–27.2% | 24.8–27.5% | 24.5–27.7% | 24.0–28.3% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 21.0% | 20.0–22.0% | 19.8–22.3% | 19.5–22.5% | 19.1–23.0% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 20.8% | 19.8–21.8% | 19.6–22.1% | 19.3–22.3% | 18.9–22.8% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 18.5% | 17.6–19.5% | 17.3–19.7% | 17.1–20.0% | 16.7–20.5% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.6% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.0% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.0% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.2–1.7% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 103 | 98–108 | 98–110 | 96–118 | 95–119 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 88 | 80–92 | 79–92 | 77–92 | 76–93 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 72 | 69–74 | 69–76 | 69–76 | 67–80 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 61 | 55–66 | 54–66 | 54–67 | 53–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 12 | 12–13 | 11–13 | 9–16 | 9–16 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Vox | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 1–6 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 98 | 22% | 97% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 74% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 73% | |
| 101 | 4% | 72% | |
| 102 | 2% | 68% | |
| 103 | 28% | 66% | Median |
| 104 | 5% | 38% | |
| 105 | 2% | 33% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 107 | 9% | 31% | |
| 108 | 15% | 21% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 113 | 0% | 5% | |
| 114 | 0% | 5% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0% | 4% | |
| 118 | 3% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 79 | 5% | 97% | |
| 80 | 16% | 92% | |
| 81 | 8% | 76% | |
| 82 | 2% | 68% | |
| 83 | 2% | 66% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 65% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 64% | |
| 86 | 10% | 64% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 54% | |
| 88 | 26% | 53% | Median |
| 89 | 0.7% | 27% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 27% | |
| 91 | 3% | 26% | |
| 92 | 22% | 23% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 69 | 14% | 98% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 71 | 27% | 82% | |
| 72 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 73 | 27% | 50% | |
| 74 | 14% | 22% | |
| 75 | 2% | 8% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 14% | 95% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 80% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 80% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 61 | 48% | 79% | Median |
| 62 | 1.0% | 31% | |
| 63 | 3% | 30% | |
| 64 | 6% | 26% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 20% | |
| 66 | 15% | 19% | |
| 67 | 4% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 11 | 2% | 96% | |
| 12 | 78% | 94% | Median |
| 13 | 12% | 16% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 99.2% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 41% | 98% | |
| 4 | 6% | 57% | |
| 5 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 6 | 37% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 13% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 5 | 17% | 86% | Last Result |
| 6 | 59% | 70% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 98.9% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 8% | 43% | |
| 4 | 3% | 35% | |
| 5 | 20% | 32% | |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 261 | 100% | 257–267 | 255–267 | 255–268 | 253–269 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 237 | 100% | 230–243 | 230–243 | 230–246 | 229–247 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 187 | 100% | 185–199 | 185–199 | 185–199 | 180–203 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 190 | 100% | 183–193 | 181–194 | 181–199 | 179–200 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 178 | 75% | 173–191 | 173–191 | 173–191 | 169–191 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 179 | 99.1% | 177–189 | 177–189 | 177–190 | 172–193 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 176 | 68% | 169–182 | 169–185 | 168–187 | 164–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 172 | 27% | 167–184 | 167–184 | 167–184 | 164–186 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 170 | 18% | 165–179 | 165–179 | 165–179 | 161–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 164 | 0.7% | 159–174 | 159–174 | 159–174 | 156–176 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 167 | 0% | 154–169 | 154–169 | 154–169 | 152–173 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 162 | 0% | 150–164 | 150–164 | 150–164 | 146–168 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 161 | 0% | 149–163 | 149–163 | 149–163 | 145–167 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 103 | 0% | 98–108 | 98–110 | 96–118 | 95–119 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 89 | 0% | 81–93 | 80–93 | 79–93 | 77–94 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 88 | 0% | 80–92 | 79–92 | 77–92 | 76–93 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 254 | 0.8% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 255 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 256 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 257 | 17% | 93% | |
| 258 | 2% | 76% | |
| 259 | 0.6% | 73% | |
| 260 | 3% | 73% | |
| 261 | 23% | 70% | |
| 262 | 0.7% | 47% | |
| 263 | 5% | 46% | Median |
| 264 | 26% | 41% | |
| 265 | 2% | 16% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 267 | 10% | 13% | |
| 268 | 2% | 3% | |
| 269 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 100% | |
| 213 | 0% | 100% | |
| 214 | 0% | 100% | |
| 215 | 0% | 100% | |
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 100% | |
| 218 | 0% | 100% | |
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 100% | |
| 221 | 0% | 100% | |
| 222 | 0% | 100% | |
| 223 | 0% | 100% | |
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 100% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 229 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 230 | 24% | 98% | |
| 231 | 0.4% | 74% | |
| 232 | 0.3% | 74% | |
| 233 | 0.3% | 73% | |
| 234 | 0.7% | 73% | |
| 235 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 236 | 14% | 71% | Median |
| 237 | 26% | 58% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 31% | |
| 239 | 1.2% | 30% | |
| 240 | 3% | 29% | |
| 241 | 6% | 27% | |
| 242 | 4% | 21% | |
| 243 | 13% | 17% | |
| 244 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 246 | 2% | 3% | |
| 247 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 185 | 22% | 99.0% | |
| 186 | 3% | 77% | |
| 187 | 26% | 73% | |
| 188 | 11% | 47% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 37% | Median |
| 190 | 0.5% | 37% | |
| 191 | 4% | 36% | |
| 192 | 6% | 32% | |
| 193 | 4% | 27% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 23% | |
| 195 | 2% | 22% | |
| 196 | 2% | 20% | |
| 197 | 2% | 18% | |
| 198 | 2% | 16% | |
| 199 | 12% | 13% | |
| 200 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 176 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 181 | 4% | 98% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 183 | 4% | 93% | |
| 184 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 185 | 5% | 89% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 187 | 2% | 84% | |
| 188 | 11% | 81% | |
| 189 | 6% | 70% | |
| 190 | 23% | 64% | |
| 191 | 26% | 41% | Median |
| 192 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 193 | 9% | 15% | |
| 194 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 196 | 0% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 199 | 3% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 173 | 22% | 99.3% | |
| 174 | 2% | 77% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 75% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 74% | |
| 178 | 26% | 72% | Median |
| 179 | 5% | 46% | |
| 180 | 13% | 41% | |
| 181 | 2% | 28% | |
| 182 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 183 | 2% | 25% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 23% | |
| 185 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 186 | 2% | 22% | |
| 187 | 3% | 19% | |
| 188 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 189 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 191 | 13% | 13% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 25% | 98% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 73% | |
| 179 | 35% | 72% | |
| 180 | 5% | 38% | |
| 181 | 1.3% | 33% | Median |
| 182 | 1.3% | 31% | |
| 183 | 4% | 30% | |
| 184 | 2% | 26% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 186 | 2% | 23% | |
| 187 | 3% | 21% | |
| 188 | 4% | 18% | |
| 189 | 11% | 14% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 193 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 169 | 23% | 97% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 171 | 2% | 74% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 73% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 72% | |
| 174 | 3% | 72% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 69% | Median |
| 176 | 30% | 68% | Majority |
| 177 | 15% | 38% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 180 | 2% | 22% | |
| 181 | 9% | 20% | |
| 182 | 4% | 10% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 184 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 187 | 3% | 4% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 167 | 24% | 99.1% | |
| 168 | 2% | 75% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 74% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 74% | |
| 171 | 10% | 73% | |
| 172 | 26% | 63% | Median |
| 173 | 4% | 37% | |
| 174 | 5% | 33% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 176 | 1.3% | 27% | Majority |
| 177 | 5% | 26% | |
| 178 | 2% | 20% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 180 | 2% | 18% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 183 | 3% | 15% | |
| 184 | 11% | 12% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 159 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 1.5% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 165 | 33% | 98% | |
| 166 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 63% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 63% | |
| 169 | 5% | 63% | |
| 170 | 26% | 58% | Median |
| 171 | 5% | 31% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 27% | |
| 173 | 2% | 26% | |
| 174 | 2% | 24% | |
| 175 | 3% | 22% | |
| 176 | 1.5% | 18% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 178 | 2% | 16% | |
| 179 | 12% | 14% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 159 | 24% | 98% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 73% | |
| 162 | 14% | 73% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 58% | |
| 164 | 26% | 58% | Median |
| 165 | 4% | 32% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 27% | |
| 167 | 2% | 26% | |
| 168 | 3% | 24% | |
| 169 | 2% | 22% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 171 | 4% | 20% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 173 | 4% | 16% | |
| 174 | 11% | 12% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 176 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 11% | 99.1% | |
| 155 | 4% | 88% | |
| 156 | 2% | 85% | |
| 157 | 2% | 83% | |
| 158 | 4% | 81% | |
| 159 | 2% | 77% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 161 | 2% | 75% | |
| 162 | 9% | 73% | |
| 163 | 10% | 64% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 54% | |
| 165 | 2% | 54% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 52% | Median |
| 167 | 26% | 52% | |
| 168 | 2% | 25% | |
| 169 | 23% | 23% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 175 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 150 | 12% | 98% | |
| 151 | 3% | 87% | |
| 152 | 2% | 84% | |
| 153 | 3% | 82% | |
| 154 | 2% | 79% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 77% | |
| 156 | 4% | 77% | |
| 157 | 9% | 73% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 64% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 64% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 63% | |
| 161 | 10% | 63% | Median |
| 162 | 26% | 53% | |
| 163 | 4% | 27% | |
| 164 | 22% | 23% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 149 | 12% | 98% | |
| 150 | 3% | 87% | |
| 151 | 4% | 84% | |
| 152 | 2% | 80% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 78% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 155 | 7% | 77% | |
| 156 | 5% | 69% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 64% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 64% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 63% | |
| 160 | 10% | 63% | Median |
| 161 | 26% | 52% | |
| 162 | 3% | 27% | |
| 163 | 23% | 24% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 96 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 98 | 22% | 97% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 74% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 73% | |
| 101 | 4% | 72% | |
| 102 | 2% | 68% | |
| 103 | 28% | 66% | Median |
| 104 | 5% | 38% | |
| 105 | 2% | 33% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 107 | 9% | 31% | |
| 108 | 15% | 21% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 113 | 0% | 5% | |
| 114 | 0% | 5% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0% | 4% | |
| 118 | 3% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 80 | 4% | 97% | |
| 81 | 17% | 93% | |
| 82 | 4% | 76% | |
| 83 | 6% | 72% | |
| 84 | 2% | 67% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 64% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 64% | |
| 87 | 10% | 64% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 54% | |
| 89 | 26% | 53% | Median |
| 90 | 1.0% | 27% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 27% | |
| 92 | 3% | 26% | |
| 93 | 22% | 23% | |
| 94 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 79 | 5% | 97% | |
| 80 | 16% | 92% | |
| 81 | 8% | 76% | |
| 82 | 2% | 68% | |
| 83 | 2% | 66% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 65% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 64% | |
| 86 | 10% | 64% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 54% | |
| 88 | 26% | 53% | Median |
| 89 | 0.7% | 27% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 27% | |
| 91 | 3% | 26% | |
| 92 | 22% | 23% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 17–22 July 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2848
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.61%