Opinion Poll by Metroscopia for Henneo, 16–25 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 26.6% 25.4–27.8% 25.1–28.2% 24.8–28.5% 24.2–29.1%
Partido Popular 33.0% 24.4% 23.2–25.6% 22.9–25.9% 22.6–26.2% 22.1–26.8%
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 20.1% 19.0–21.2% 18.7–21.5% 18.5–21.8% 18.0–22.3%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 16.1% 15.2–17.1% 14.9–17.4% 14.6–17.7% 14.2–18.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 108 100–115 98–117 97–118 94–121
Partido Popular 137 99 94–106 92–109 91–111 89–115
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 69 65–73 63–73 62–74 60–78
Unidos Podemos 71 47 41–54 40–56 39–57 36–60

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.5% 99.7%  
95 0.7% 99.2%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 1.2% 98%  
98 3% 96%  
99 2% 94%  
100 3% 91%  
101 3% 89%  
102 6% 86%  
103 5% 79%  
104 5% 74%  
105 3% 70%  
106 4% 67%  
107 8% 63%  
108 6% 55% Median
109 7% 49%  
110 5% 41%  
111 3% 37%  
112 6% 34%  
113 11% 28%  
114 7% 17%  
115 2% 10%  
116 3% 8%  
117 2% 5%  
118 2% 4%  
119 0.7% 2%  
120 0.4% 1.3%  
121 0.4% 0.9%  
122 0.3% 0.5%  
123 0.2% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.8% 99.4%  
91 2% 98.7%  
92 2% 97%  
93 2% 95%  
94 4% 93%  
95 7% 89%  
96 7% 82%  
97 11% 75%  
98 9% 65%  
99 11% 56% Median
100 7% 44%  
101 5% 37%  
102 8% 33%  
103 8% 25%  
104 2% 18%  
105 4% 16%  
106 3% 12%  
107 2% 9%  
108 2% 7%  
109 2% 6%  
110 1.0% 4%  
111 0.4% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.0%  
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 0.6% 99.2%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 2% 97%  
64 4% 95%  
65 3% 91%  
66 7% 88%  
67 15% 81%  
68 8% 65%  
69 8% 57% Median
70 14% 50%  
71 7% 36%  
72 11% 29%  
73 13% 17%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.3% 1.1%  
77 0.1% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.5%  
38 0.3% 99.2%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 4% 97%  
41 6% 93%  
42 6% 87%  
43 6% 81%  
44 5% 75%  
45 8% 70%  
46 6% 62%  
47 8% 56% Median
48 12% 48%  
49 4% 35%  
50 9% 31%  
51 4% 22%  
52 3% 18%  
53 2% 15%  
54 4% 14%  
55 4% 10%  
56 2% 6%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.3%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 254 277 100% 270–282 269–284 267–284 264–286
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos 188 225 100% 218–230 214–232 212–233 208–235
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 222 208 100% 200–214 198–216 197–216 195–219
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 117 179 58% 170–185 168–187 165–189 161–191
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 169 169 8% 163–175 162–177 160–179 158–183
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 156 0% 149–161 146–162 144–164 140–166
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 108 0% 100–115 98–117 97–118 94–121
Partido Popular 137 99 0% 94–106 92–109 91–111 89–115

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.3% 99.8%  
265 0.6% 99.5%  
266 0.5% 98.9%  
267 1.0% 98%  
268 2% 97%  
269 2% 95%  
270 4% 93%  
271 3% 89%  
272 2% 86%  
273 5% 84%  
274 4% 78%  
275 8% 74%  
276 8% 67% Median
277 15% 59%  
278 10% 44%  
279 8% 34%  
280 5% 26%  
281 6% 21%  
282 7% 15%  
283 3% 8%  
284 4% 5%  
285 1.1% 2%  
286 0.5% 0.7%  
287 0.2% 0.2%  
288 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.2% 99.8%  
208 0.3% 99.6%  
209 0.2% 99.2%  
210 0.5% 99.0%  
211 0.7% 98.5%  
212 0.4% 98%  
213 0.7% 97%  
214 2% 97%  
215 1.2% 95%  
216 2% 94%  
217 1.0% 92%  
218 3% 91%  
219 3% 87%  
220 5% 84%  
221 4% 79%  
222 7% 75%  
223 6% 68%  
224 8% 62% Median
225 10% 54%  
226 9% 45%  
227 9% 36%  
228 5% 26%  
229 6% 21%  
230 5% 15%  
231 4% 10%  
232 2% 5%  
233 2% 3%  
234 0.6% 2%  
235 0.4% 0.9%  
236 0.2% 0.4%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0.1% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0% 100%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.2% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.5% 99.6%  
196 1.3% 99.1%  
197 2% 98%  
198 2% 96%  
199 3% 94%  
200 2% 92%  
201 3% 90%  
202 3% 87%  
203 4% 84%  
204 9% 81%  
205 5% 72%  
206 8% 67%  
207 5% 59% Median
208 7% 54%  
209 8% 48%  
210 8% 40%  
211 9% 32%  
212 7% 24%  
213 3% 16%  
214 3% 13%  
215 3% 10%  
216 4% 6%  
217 1.0% 2%  
218 0.7% 1.4%  
219 0.3% 0.8%  
220 0.3% 0.4%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1% Last Result
223 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 100%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.1% 99.7%  
161 0.3% 99.5%  
162 0.4% 99.3%  
163 0.6% 98.9%  
164 0.6% 98%  
165 0.7% 98%  
166 0.9% 97%  
167 0.9% 96%  
168 1.5% 95%  
169 3% 94%  
170 5% 91%  
171 5% 86%  
172 8% 81%  
173 6% 73%  
174 5% 67%  
175 3% 61%  
176 3% 58% Majority
177 2% 55% Median
178 2% 54%  
179 9% 51%  
180 12% 42%  
181 8% 30%  
182 7% 22%  
183 3% 15%  
184 1.4% 11%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 9%  
187 2% 7%  
188 2% 5%  
189 1.0% 3%  
190 1.2% 2%  
191 0.6% 0.8%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.2% 99.7%  
158 0.4% 99.5%  
159 0.8% 99.1%  
160 0.8% 98%  
161 2% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 5% 93%  
164 7% 88%  
165 7% 81%  
166 6% 74%  
167 7% 68%  
168 9% 60% Median
169 9% 51% Last Result
170 8% 41%  
171 7% 33%  
172 5% 27%  
173 7% 22%  
174 2% 15%  
175 4% 13%  
176 2% 8% Majority
177 2% 6%  
178 1.3% 4%  
179 0.6% 3%  
180 0.6% 2%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.4% 1.0%  
183 0.3% 0.6%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.4% 99.8%  
141 0.4% 99.4%  
142 0.3% 99.1%  
143 0.7% 98.8%  
144 0.7% 98%  
145 0.8% 97%  
146 2% 97%  
147 2% 95%  
148 2% 93%  
149 2% 90%  
150 4% 88%  
151 3% 84%  
152 7% 81%  
153 6% 74%  
154 11% 68%  
155 6% 57% Median
156 7% 51% Last Result
157 11% 44%  
158 9% 34%  
159 4% 25%  
160 9% 21%  
161 5% 12%  
162 3% 7%  
163 2% 4%  
164 1.0% 3%  
165 0.7% 2%  
166 0.4% 0.9%  
167 0.2% 0.5%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0.1% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.5% 99.7%  
95 0.7% 99.2%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 1.2% 98%  
98 3% 96%  
99 2% 94%  
100 3% 91%  
101 3% 89%  
102 6% 86%  
103 5% 79%  
104 5% 74%  
105 3% 70%  
106 4% 67%  
107 8% 63%  
108 6% 55% Median
109 7% 49%  
110 5% 41%  
111 3% 37%  
112 6% 34%  
113 11% 28%  
114 7% 17%  
115 2% 10%  
116 3% 8%  
117 2% 5%  
118 2% 4%  
119 0.7% 2%  
120 0.4% 1.3%  
121 0.4% 0.9%  
122 0.3% 0.5%  
123 0.2% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.8% 99.4%  
91 2% 98.7%  
92 2% 97%  
93 2% 95%  
94 4% 93%  
95 7% 89%  
96 7% 82%  
97 11% 75%  
98 9% 65%  
99 11% 56% Median
100 7% 44%  
101 5% 37%  
102 8% 33%  
103 8% 25%  
104 2% 18%  
105 4% 16%  
106 3% 12%  
107 2% 9%  
108 2% 7%  
109 2% 6%  
110 1.0% 4%  
111 0.4% 3%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.4% 1.0%  
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations