Opinion Poll by Metroscopia for Henneo, 16–25 July 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español |
22.6% |
26.6% |
25.4–27.8% |
25.1–28.2% |
24.8–28.5% |
24.2–29.1% |
Partido Popular |
33.0% |
24.4% |
23.2–25.6% |
22.9–25.9% |
22.6–26.2% |
22.1–26.8% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
13.1% |
20.1% |
19.0–21.2% |
18.7–21.5% |
18.5–21.8% |
18.0–22.3% |
Unidos Podemos |
21.2% |
16.1% |
15.2–17.1% |
14.9–17.4% |
14.6–17.7% |
14.2–18.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0% |
100% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
93 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
94 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
95 |
0.7% |
99.2% |
|
96 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
97 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
98 |
3% |
96% |
|
99 |
2% |
94% |
|
100 |
3% |
91% |
|
101 |
3% |
89% |
|
102 |
6% |
86% |
|
103 |
5% |
79% |
|
104 |
5% |
74% |
|
105 |
3% |
70% |
|
106 |
4% |
67% |
|
107 |
8% |
63% |
|
108 |
6% |
55% |
Median |
109 |
7% |
49% |
|
110 |
5% |
41% |
|
111 |
3% |
37% |
|
112 |
6% |
34% |
|
113 |
11% |
28% |
|
114 |
7% |
17% |
|
115 |
2% |
10% |
|
116 |
3% |
8% |
|
117 |
2% |
5% |
|
118 |
2% |
4% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
120 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
121 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
122 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
123 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
124 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
88 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
90 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
91 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
92 |
2% |
97% |
|
93 |
2% |
95% |
|
94 |
4% |
93% |
|
95 |
7% |
89% |
|
96 |
7% |
82% |
|
97 |
11% |
75% |
|
98 |
9% |
65% |
|
99 |
11% |
56% |
Median |
100 |
7% |
44% |
|
101 |
5% |
37% |
|
102 |
8% |
33% |
|
103 |
8% |
25% |
|
104 |
2% |
18% |
|
105 |
4% |
16% |
|
106 |
3% |
12% |
|
107 |
2% |
9% |
|
108 |
2% |
7% |
|
109 |
2% |
6% |
|
110 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
111 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
112 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
113 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
114 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
115 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
117 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
118 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
61 |
0.6% |
99.2% |
|
62 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
63 |
2% |
97% |
|
64 |
4% |
95% |
|
65 |
3% |
91% |
|
66 |
7% |
88% |
|
67 |
15% |
81% |
|
68 |
8% |
65% |
|
69 |
8% |
57% |
Median |
70 |
14% |
50% |
|
71 |
7% |
36% |
|
72 |
11% |
29% |
|
73 |
13% |
17% |
|
74 |
2% |
4% |
|
75 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
76 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
79 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
39 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
40 |
4% |
97% |
|
41 |
6% |
93% |
|
42 |
6% |
87% |
|
43 |
6% |
81% |
|
44 |
5% |
75% |
|
45 |
8% |
70% |
|
46 |
6% |
62% |
|
47 |
8% |
56% |
Median |
48 |
12% |
48% |
|
49 |
4% |
35% |
|
50 |
9% |
31% |
|
51 |
4% |
22% |
|
52 |
3% |
18% |
|
53 |
2% |
15% |
|
54 |
4% |
14% |
|
55 |
4% |
10% |
|
56 |
2% |
6% |
|
57 |
2% |
4% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
60 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
254 |
277 |
100% |
270–282 |
269–284 |
267–284 |
264–286 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos |
188 |
225 |
100% |
218–230 |
214–232 |
212–233 |
208–235 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular |
222 |
208 |
100% |
200–214 |
198–216 |
197–216 |
195–219 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
117 |
179 |
58% |
170–185 |
168–187 |
165–189 |
161–191 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
169 |
169 |
8% |
163–175 |
162–177 |
160–179 |
158–183 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos |
156 |
156 |
0% |
149–161 |
146–162 |
144–164 |
140–166 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español |
85 |
108 |
0% |
100–115 |
98–117 |
97–118 |
94–121 |
Partido Popular |
137 |
99 |
0% |
94–106 |
92–109 |
91–111 |
89–115 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
254 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
265 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
266 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
267 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
268 |
2% |
97% |
|
269 |
2% |
95% |
|
270 |
4% |
93% |
|
271 |
3% |
89% |
|
272 |
2% |
86% |
|
273 |
5% |
84% |
|
274 |
4% |
78% |
|
275 |
8% |
74% |
|
276 |
8% |
67% |
Median |
277 |
15% |
59% |
|
278 |
10% |
44% |
|
279 |
8% |
34% |
|
280 |
5% |
26% |
|
281 |
6% |
21% |
|
282 |
7% |
15% |
|
283 |
3% |
8% |
|
284 |
4% |
5% |
|
285 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
286 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
287 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
188 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
189 |
0% |
100% |
|
190 |
0% |
100% |
|
191 |
0% |
100% |
|
192 |
0% |
100% |
|
193 |
0% |
100% |
|
194 |
0% |
100% |
|
195 |
0% |
100% |
|
196 |
0% |
100% |
|
197 |
0% |
100% |
|
198 |
0% |
100% |
|
199 |
0% |
100% |
|
200 |
0% |
100% |
|
201 |
0% |
100% |
|
202 |
0% |
100% |
|
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
207 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
208 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
209 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
210 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
211 |
0.7% |
98.5% |
|
212 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
213 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
214 |
2% |
97% |
|
215 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
216 |
2% |
94% |
|
217 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
218 |
3% |
91% |
|
219 |
3% |
87% |
|
220 |
5% |
84% |
|
221 |
4% |
79% |
|
222 |
7% |
75% |
|
223 |
6% |
68% |
|
224 |
8% |
62% |
Median |
225 |
10% |
54% |
|
226 |
9% |
45% |
|
227 |
9% |
36% |
|
228 |
5% |
26% |
|
229 |
6% |
21% |
|
230 |
5% |
15% |
|
231 |
4% |
10% |
|
232 |
2% |
5% |
|
233 |
2% |
3% |
|
234 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
235 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
236 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
239 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
240 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
191 |
0% |
100% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
193 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
195 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
196 |
1.3% |
99.1% |
|
197 |
2% |
98% |
|
198 |
2% |
96% |
|
199 |
3% |
94% |
|
200 |
2% |
92% |
|
201 |
3% |
90% |
|
202 |
3% |
87% |
|
203 |
4% |
84% |
|
204 |
9% |
81% |
|
205 |
5% |
72% |
|
206 |
8% |
67% |
|
207 |
5% |
59% |
Median |
208 |
7% |
54% |
|
209 |
8% |
48% |
|
210 |
8% |
40% |
|
211 |
9% |
32% |
|
212 |
7% |
24% |
|
213 |
3% |
16% |
|
214 |
3% |
13% |
|
215 |
3% |
10% |
|
216 |
4% |
6% |
|
217 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
218 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
219 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
220 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
221 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
222 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
117 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
118 |
0% |
100% |
|
119 |
0% |
100% |
|
120 |
0% |
100% |
|
121 |
0% |
100% |
|
122 |
0% |
100% |
|
123 |
0% |
100% |
|
124 |
0% |
100% |
|
125 |
0% |
100% |
|
126 |
0% |
100% |
|
127 |
0% |
100% |
|
128 |
0% |
100% |
|
129 |
0% |
100% |
|
130 |
0% |
100% |
|
131 |
0% |
100% |
|
132 |
0% |
100% |
|
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0% |
100% |
|
155 |
0% |
100% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
160 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
161 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
162 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
163 |
0.6% |
98.9% |
|
164 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
165 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
166 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
167 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
168 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
169 |
3% |
94% |
|
170 |
5% |
91% |
|
171 |
5% |
86% |
|
172 |
8% |
81% |
|
173 |
6% |
73% |
|
174 |
5% |
67% |
|
175 |
3% |
61% |
|
176 |
3% |
58% |
Majority |
177 |
2% |
55% |
Median |
178 |
2% |
54% |
|
179 |
9% |
51% |
|
180 |
12% |
42% |
|
181 |
8% |
30% |
|
182 |
7% |
22% |
|
183 |
3% |
15% |
|
184 |
1.4% |
11% |
|
185 |
2% |
10% |
|
186 |
2% |
9% |
|
187 |
2% |
7% |
|
188 |
2% |
5% |
|
189 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
190 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
191 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
192 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
193 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
194 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
157 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
158 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
159 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
160 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
161 |
2% |
97% |
|
162 |
2% |
96% |
|
163 |
5% |
93% |
|
164 |
7% |
88% |
|
165 |
7% |
81% |
|
166 |
6% |
74% |
|
167 |
7% |
68% |
|
168 |
9% |
60% |
Median |
169 |
9% |
51% |
Last Result |
170 |
8% |
41% |
|
171 |
7% |
33% |
|
172 |
5% |
27% |
|
173 |
7% |
22% |
|
174 |
2% |
15% |
|
175 |
4% |
13% |
|
176 |
2% |
8% |
Majority |
177 |
2% |
6% |
|
178 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
179 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
180 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
181 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
182 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
183 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
185 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
186 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
187 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
138 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
139 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
140 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
141 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
142 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
143 |
0.7% |
98.8% |
|
144 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
145 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
146 |
2% |
97% |
|
147 |
2% |
95% |
|
148 |
2% |
93% |
|
149 |
2% |
90% |
|
150 |
4% |
88% |
|
151 |
3% |
84% |
|
152 |
7% |
81% |
|
153 |
6% |
74% |
|
154 |
11% |
68% |
|
155 |
6% |
57% |
Median |
156 |
7% |
51% |
Last Result |
157 |
11% |
44% |
|
158 |
9% |
34% |
|
159 |
4% |
25% |
|
160 |
9% |
21% |
|
161 |
5% |
12% |
|
162 |
3% |
7% |
|
163 |
2% |
4% |
|
164 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
165 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
166 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
167 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
168 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
169 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
171 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0% |
100% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
93 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
94 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
95 |
0.7% |
99.2% |
|
96 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
97 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
98 |
3% |
96% |
|
99 |
2% |
94% |
|
100 |
3% |
91% |
|
101 |
3% |
89% |
|
102 |
6% |
86% |
|
103 |
5% |
79% |
|
104 |
5% |
74% |
|
105 |
3% |
70% |
|
106 |
4% |
67% |
|
107 |
8% |
63% |
|
108 |
6% |
55% |
Median |
109 |
7% |
49% |
|
110 |
5% |
41% |
|
111 |
3% |
37% |
|
112 |
6% |
34% |
|
113 |
11% |
28% |
|
114 |
7% |
17% |
|
115 |
2% |
10% |
|
116 |
3% |
8% |
|
117 |
2% |
5% |
|
118 |
2% |
4% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
120 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
121 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
122 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
123 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
124 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
88 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
90 |
0.8% |
99.4% |
|
91 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
92 |
2% |
97% |
|
93 |
2% |
95% |
|
94 |
4% |
93% |
|
95 |
7% |
89% |
|
96 |
7% |
82% |
|
97 |
11% |
75% |
|
98 |
9% |
65% |
|
99 |
11% |
56% |
Median |
100 |
7% |
44% |
|
101 |
5% |
37% |
|
102 |
8% |
33% |
|
103 |
8% |
25% |
|
104 |
2% |
18% |
|
105 |
4% |
16% |
|
106 |
3% |
12% |
|
107 |
2% |
9% |
|
108 |
2% |
7% |
|
109 |
2% |
6% |
|
110 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
111 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
112 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
113 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
114 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
115 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
117 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
118 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Metroscopia
- Commissioner(s): Henneo
- Fieldwork period: 16–25 July 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2260
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.10%