Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 3–7 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 28.2% | 26.5–30.0% | 26.0–30.5% | 25.6–30.9% | 24.8–31.8% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 26.4% | 24.7–28.1% | 24.2–28.6% | 23.8–29.1% | 23.1–29.9% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 18.7% | 17.3–20.3% | 16.9–20.8% | 16.5–21.2% | 15.9–21.9% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 17.1% | 15.7–18.6% | 15.3–19.1% | 15.0–19.4% | 14.3–20.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 115 | 95–127 | 95–127 | 94–128 | 94–128 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 104 | 93–118 | 93–118 | 93–120 | 92–125 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 60 | 58–67 | 56–67 | 56–67 | 51–68 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 44 | 42–53 | 41–61 | 40–62 | 36–63 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 12 | 11–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 7–17 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–10 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 3 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 1–5 | 1–6 | 1–6 | 1–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 17% | 96% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 97 | 2% | 78% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 76% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 101 | 1.4% | 75% | |
| 102 | 3% | 74% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 71% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 71% | |
| 105 | 0% | 71% | |
| 106 | 3% | 71% | |
| 107 | 5% | 68% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 63% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 63% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 62% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 61% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 115 | 36% | 61% | Median |
| 116 | 0.3% | 25% | |
| 117 | 8% | 25% | |
| 118 | 0% | 17% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 121 | 0% | 17% | |
| 122 | 0% | 17% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 17% | |
| 124 | 2% | 16% | |
| 125 | 0% | 14% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 127 | 10% | 14% | |
| 128 | 4% | 4% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 93 | 10% | 99.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 97 | 0% | 89% | |
| 98 | 4% | 89% | |
| 99 | 12% | 85% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 73% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 72% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 71% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 70% | |
| 104 | 36% | 70% | Median |
| 105 | 5% | 34% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 29% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 28% | |
| 112 | 4% | 28% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 24% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 118 | 18% | 23% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 120 | 3% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 122 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 123 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 124 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 94% | |
| 58 | 11% | 92% | |
| 59 | 18% | 81% | |
| 60 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 61 | 2% | 44% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 42% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 42% | |
| 64 | 2% | 41% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 39% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 38% | |
| 67 | 36% | 38% | |
| 68 | 2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 4% | 97% | |
| 42 | 39% | 93% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 54% | |
| 44 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 45 | 11% | 50% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 39% | |
| 47 | 0% | 39% | |
| 48 | 8% | 39% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 31% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 30% | |
| 51 | 20% | 30% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 53 | 4% | 10% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 61 | 2% | 5% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 63 | 2% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 11 | 28% | 93% | |
| 12 | 46% | 64% | Median |
| 13 | 5% | 18% | |
| 14 | 12% | 13% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 2% | 98% | |
| 5 | 53% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 32% | 42% | |
| 7 | 2% | 10% | |
| 8 | 6% | 9% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 46% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 4 | 0.7% | 35% | |
| 5 | 6% | 34% | Last Result |
| 6 | 7% | 28% | |
| 7 | 19% | 22% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 15% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 54% | 85% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 5% | 30% | |
| 4 | 2% | 25% | |
| 5 | 14% | 23% | |
| 6 | 9% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | |
| 1 | 75% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 10% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 2 | 6% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 279 | 100% | 270–286 | 267–286 | 261–286 | 260–286 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 224 | 100% | 206–231 | 205–231 | 200–231 | 198–233 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 219 | 100% | 212–222 | 209–226 | 197–227 | 193–228 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 178 | 76% | 171–197 | 171–197 | 171–197 | 170–197 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 174 | 33% | 163–189 | 163–189 | 163–189 | 161–189 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 171 | 28% | 158–188 | 158–188 | 158–188 | 156–188 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 181 | 61% | 155–186 | 155–186 | 154–186 | 154–186 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 161 | 15% | 154–180 | 153–180 | 152–180 | 149–180 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 172 | 23% | 153–179 | 153–179 | 153–179 | 153–180 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 171 | 23% | 152–178 | 152–178 | 152–178 | 151–179 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 157 | 0.1% | 146–172 | 145–172 | 144–172 | 141–172 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 115 | 0% | 95–127 | 95–127 | 94–128 | 94–128 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 104 | 0% | 93–118 | 93–118 | 93–120 | 92–125 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 100% | |
| 258 | 0% | 100% | |
| 259 | 0% | 100% | |
| 260 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 261 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 262 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 263 | 0% | 97% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 267 | 2% | 96% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 270 | 5% | 94% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 272 | 4% | 88% | |
| 273 | 16% | 85% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 69% | |
| 275 | 8% | 68% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 60% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 60% | |
| 278 | 3% | 59% | |
| 279 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 280 | 1.3% | 42% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 40% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 40% | |
| 283 | 0.5% | 40% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 40% | |
| 285 | 4% | 40% | |
| 286 | 36% | 36% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 200 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 201 | 0% | 95% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 203 | 0% | 95% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 205 | 0% | 95% | |
| 206 | 15% | 95% | |
| 207 | 4% | 80% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 77% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 76% | |
| 211 | 3% | 76% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 73% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 73% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 73% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 73% | |
| 216 | 7% | 73% | |
| 217 | 0.6% | 66% | |
| 218 | 0% | 65% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 65% | Median |
| 220 | 0.5% | 65% | |
| 221 | 2% | 64% | |
| 222 | 0.9% | 62% | |
| 223 | 0% | 61% | |
| 224 | 44% | 61% | |
| 225 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 226 | 2% | 16% | |
| 227 | 4% | 15% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 230 | 0% | 11% | |
| 231 | 10% | 11% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | 2% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 98% | |
| 195 | 0% | 98% | |
| 196 | 0% | 98% | |
| 197 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 201 | 0% | 97% | |
| 202 | 0% | 97% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 204 | 0% | 96% | |
| 205 | 0% | 96% | |
| 206 | 0% | 96% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 209 | 3% | 96% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 212 | 9% | 92% | |
| 213 | 15% | 83% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 69% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 68% | |
| 216 | 9% | 68% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 59% | |
| 218 | 2% | 59% | |
| 219 | 36% | 57% | Median |
| 220 | 10% | 21% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 222 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 224 | 0% | 6% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 226 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 227 | 4% | 4% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 232 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 170 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 171 | 15% | 98% | |
| 172 | 4% | 84% | |
| 173 | 3% | 79% | |
| 174 | 0% | 77% | |
| 175 | 0% | 77% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 76% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 76% | |
| 178 | 36% | 74% | |
| 179 | 3% | 38% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 35% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.1% | 35% | Median |
| 182 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 183 | 2% | 35% | |
| 184 | 5% | 32% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 27% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 26% | |
| 190 | 8% | 25% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 193 | 4% | 16% | |
| 194 | 0% | 13% | |
| 195 | 2% | 13% | |
| 196 | 0% | 11% | |
| 197 | 10% | 11% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 163 | 15% | 99.2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 165 | 4% | 85% | |
| 166 | 4% | 80% | |
| 167 | 2% | 76% | |
| 168 | 0% | 74% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 74% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 73% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 73% | Last Result |
| 174 | 36% | 73% | |
| 175 | 4% | 37% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 33% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 6% | 32% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 27% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 26% | |
| 180 | 0% | 26% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 182 | 9% | 25% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 184 | 6% | 17% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 186 | 0% | 11% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 188 | 0% | 10% | |
| 189 | 10% | 10% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 158 | 15% | 99.4% | |
| 159 | 3% | 85% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 82% | |
| 161 | 0% | 81% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 163 | 2% | 80% | |
| 164 | 4% | 78% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 74% | |
| 166 | 0% | 73% | |
| 167 | 0% | 73% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.4% | 73% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 73% | |
| 170 | 1.1% | 73% | |
| 171 | 36% | 72% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 36% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 35% | Median |
| 174 | 7% | 35% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 28% | |
| 176 | 2% | 28% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 178 | 0% | 25% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 180 | 4% | 25% | |
| 181 | 2% | 21% | |
| 182 | 0% | 19% | |
| 183 | 8% | 19% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 186 | 0% | 10% | |
| 187 | 0% | 10% | |
| 188 | 10% | 10% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 154 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 18% | 96% | |
| 156 | 0% | 78% | |
| 157 | 0% | 78% | |
| 158 | 3% | 78% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 75% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 74% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 73% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 73% | |
| 163 | 2% | 73% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 71% | |
| 165 | 5% | 71% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 66% | |
| 167 | 3% | 66% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 63% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 63% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 63% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 62% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 62% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 61% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 61% | Median |
| 176 | 9% | 61% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 52% | |
| 178 | 0% | 52% | |
| 179 | 0% | 52% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 52% | |
| 181 | 2% | 52% | |
| 182 | 36% | 50% | |
| 183 | 0% | 14% | |
| 184 | 0% | 14% | |
| 185 | 0% | 14% | |
| 186 | 14% | 14% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 151 | 0% | 98% | |
| 152 | 3% | 98% | |
| 153 | 4% | 95% | |
| 154 | 15% | 91% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 156 | 0% | 77% | |
| 157 | 0% | 77% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 76% | |
| 160 | 2% | 76% | |
| 161 | 36% | 74% | |
| 162 | 2% | 37% | |
| 163 | 0% | 35% | Last Result |
| 164 | 1.3% | 35% | Median |
| 165 | 5% | 34% | |
| 166 | 2% | 29% | |
| 167 | 0% | 27% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 169 | 1.1% | 27% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 25% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 25% | |
| 173 | 8% | 25% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 175 | 2% | 17% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 15% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 178 | 4% | 14% | |
| 179 | 0% | 10% | |
| 180 | 10% | 10% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 155 | 2% | 89% | |
| 156 | 0% | 87% | |
| 157 | 4% | 87% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 160 | 8% | 83% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 74% | |
| 163 | 0% | 74% | |
| 164 | 6% | 74% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 68% | Median |
| 166 | 0% | 68% | |
| 167 | 2% | 68% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 65% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 65% | Last Result |
| 171 | 2% | 64% | |
| 172 | 36% | 62% | |
| 173 | 2% | 26% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 24% | |
| 175 | 0% | 23% | |
| 176 | 0% | 23% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 23% | |
| 178 | 4% | 20% | |
| 179 | 15% | 16% | |
| 180 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 10% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 0% | 89% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 155 | 2% | 89% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 157 | 4% | 87% | |
| 158 | 8% | 83% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 75% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 74% | |
| 163 | 5% | 74% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 68% | Median |
| 165 | 1.2% | 68% | |
| 166 | 2% | 67% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 65% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 65% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 65% | Last Result |
| 170 | 2% | 64% | |
| 171 | 36% | 62% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 173 | 2% | 26% | |
| 174 | 0% | 23% | |
| 175 | 0% | 23% | |
| 176 | 3% | 23% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 178 | 18% | 20% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 144 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 146 | 15% | 95% | |
| 147 | 4% | 80% | |
| 148 | 0% | 76% | |
| 149 | 0% | 76% | |
| 150 | 3% | 76% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 74% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 73% | |
| 154 | 0% | 73% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 73% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 73% | Last Result |
| 157 | 36% | 72% | |
| 158 | 9% | 36% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 27% | Median |
| 160 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 163 | 0% | 25% | |
| 164 | 2% | 25% | |
| 165 | 8% | 23% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 169 | 4% | 14% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 172 | 10% | 10% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 17% | 96% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 97 | 2% | 78% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 76% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 101 | 1.4% | 75% | |
| 102 | 3% | 74% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 71% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 71% | |
| 105 | 0% | 71% | |
| 106 | 3% | 71% | |
| 107 | 5% | 68% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 63% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 63% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 62% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 61% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 115 | 36% | 61% | Median |
| 116 | 0.3% | 25% | |
| 117 | 8% | 25% | |
| 118 | 0% | 17% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 121 | 0% | 17% | |
| 122 | 0% | 17% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 17% | |
| 124 | 2% | 16% | |
| 125 | 0% | 14% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 127 | 10% | 14% | |
| 128 | 4% | 4% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 93 | 10% | 99.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 97 | 0% | 89% | |
| 98 | 4% | 89% | |
| 99 | 12% | 85% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 73% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 72% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 71% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 70% | |
| 104 | 36% | 70% | Median |
| 105 | 5% | 34% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 29% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 29% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 28% | |
| 112 | 4% | 28% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 24% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 118 | 18% | 23% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 120 | 3% | 4% | |
| 121 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 122 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 123 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 124 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 3–7 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.71%