Opinion Poll by GAD3 for ABC, 3–7 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 27.0% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Partido Popular 33.0% 25.9% 24.2–27.7% 23.7–28.2% 23.2–28.7% 22.5–29.6%
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.0%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–17.9% 13.7–18.3% 13.1–19.1%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 2.7% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 2.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
Vox 0.2% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.2% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Euskal Herria Bildu 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 103 96–112 93–116 92–121 90–125
Partido Popular 137 102 97–111 92–116 90–117 87–124
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 70 64–75 62–78 59–79 58–83
Unidos Podemos 71 47 37–55 36–60 36–62 33–62
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 9 10 7–14 7–14 7–15 7–15
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 8 6 4–10 4–10 4–10 3–12
Vox 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 5 6 3–7 3–8 3–8 2–10
Euskal Herria Bildu 2 2 1–4 1–5 0–6 0–7

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.1%  
92 1.5% 98.8%  
93 3% 97%  
94 0.8% 95%  
95 2% 94%  
96 3% 92%  
97 5% 89%  
98 1.3% 84%  
99 0.6% 83%  
100 24% 82%  
101 4% 59%  
102 4% 55%  
103 7% 51% Median
104 0.2% 44%  
105 0.5% 44%  
106 1.2% 43%  
107 3% 42%  
108 5% 39%  
109 5% 34%  
110 5% 29%  
111 13% 24%  
112 0.4% 10%  
113 1.1% 10%  
114 1.4% 9%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 6%  
117 0.6% 4%  
118 0.1% 3%  
119 0.4% 3%  
120 0.2% 3%  
121 0.9% 3%  
122 0.7% 2%  
123 0.4% 1.1%  
124 0.1% 0.7%  
125 0.3% 0.6%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 1.1% 99.7%  
88 0.5% 98.7%  
89 0.3% 98%  
90 1.1% 98%  
91 1.2% 97%  
92 2% 96%  
93 0.3% 94%  
94 1.1% 94%  
95 0.9% 93%  
96 0.6% 92%  
97 1.4% 91%  
98 4% 90%  
99 0.9% 86%  
100 14% 85%  
101 5% 71%  
102 23% 66% Median
103 6% 43%  
104 7% 36%  
105 9% 30%  
106 1.0% 20%  
107 0.5% 19%  
108 2% 19%  
109 4% 17%  
110 2% 12%  
111 0.9% 10%  
112 2% 9%  
113 0.7% 7%  
114 1.1% 7%  
115 0.6% 6%  
116 3% 5%  
117 0.1% 3%  
118 0.3% 2%  
119 0.3% 2%  
120 0.3% 2%  
121 0.3% 1.5%  
122 0.2% 1.1%  
123 0.1% 0.9%  
124 0.7% 0.8%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 0.2% 99.6%  
59 2% 99.4%  
60 0.8% 97%  
61 1.1% 96%  
62 2% 95%  
63 0.5% 93%  
64 5% 92%  
65 3% 88%  
66 2% 85%  
67 6% 82%  
68 4% 76%  
69 19% 73%  
70 27% 54% Median
71 9% 27%  
72 2% 19%  
73 3% 17%  
74 1.2% 14%  
75 3% 13%  
76 5% 10%  
77 0.1% 5%  
78 0.4% 5%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.2% 1.4%  
82 0.6% 1.2%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.8%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 0.1% 99.2%  
35 0.7% 99.1%  
36 7% 98%  
37 6% 91%  
38 9% 85%  
39 3% 77%  
40 6% 74%  
41 1.4% 68%  
42 2% 66%  
43 2% 65%  
44 5% 62%  
45 1.1% 57%  
46 2% 56%  
47 14% 55% Median
48 1.2% 40%  
49 3% 39%  
50 0.5% 36%  
51 0.8% 36%  
52 24% 35%  
53 0.1% 11%  
54 0.3% 11%  
55 1.1% 11%  
56 1.1% 10%  
57 0.8% 9%  
58 0% 8%  
59 0.3% 8%  
60 3% 8%  
61 0.1% 5%  
62 4% 5%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 17% 99.5%  
8 4% 83%  
9 8% 79% Last Result
10 30% 70% Median
11 10% 40%  
12 8% 30%  
13 11% 22%  
14 8% 11%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.9%  
4 10% 99.3%  
5 12% 90%  
6 30% 78% Median
7 13% 48%  
8 10% 34% Last Result
9 13% 24%  
10 9% 11%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.8%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 58% 68% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 2% 99.8%  
3 24% 98%  
4 9% 74%  
5 3% 66% Last Result
6 32% 63% Median
7 26% 32%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.8% 1.3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 17% 97%  
2 48% 80% Last Result, Median
3 14% 32%  
4 11% 18%  
5 3% 7%  
6 3% 4%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 254 279 100% 267–285 264–288 261–289 261–289
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos 188 222 100% 210–227 208–230 203–232 197–236
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 222 208 100% 200–217 197–218 194–220 192–225
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 117 172 47% 163–183 161–187 160–191 155–194
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 180 177 67% 166–183 163–186 161–189 158–193
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox 169 172 28% 166–183 163–186 160–188 156–191
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 169 172 27% 165–181 162–185 159–187 154–190
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 173 168 7% 157–175 155–179 152–181 148–186
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu 167 164 4% 153–173 150–174 149–179 146–181
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 163 161 0.4% 146–165 146–168 142–171 141–175
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 152 0% 139–159 138–161 132–163 131–168
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 103 0% 96–112 93–116 92–121 90–125
Partido Popular – Vox 137 102 0% 98–112 93–116 90–118 88–125
Partido Popular 137 102 0% 97–111 92–116 90–117 87–124

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0.1% 100%  
259 0.2% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 3% 99.6%  
262 0.7% 97%  
263 0.1% 96%  
264 5% 96%  
265 0.1% 91%  
266 0.2% 90%  
267 0.2% 90%  
268 0.9% 90%  
269 0.5% 89%  
270 1.2% 89%  
271 3% 87%  
272 23% 84%  
273 0.6% 61%  
274 0.9% 60%  
275 1.2% 59% Median
276 2% 58%  
277 3% 56%  
278 2% 52%  
279 3% 50%  
280 15% 47%  
281 4% 31%  
282 3% 28%  
283 2% 25%  
284 11% 23%  
285 2% 12%  
286 0.9% 9%  
287 0.9% 9%  
288 3% 8%  
289 4% 5%  
290 0.2% 0.4%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0.2% 0.2%  
293 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0.9% 99.8%  
198 0.2% 98.9%  
199 0.3% 98.7%  
200 0.1% 98%  
201 0.4% 98%  
202 0.4% 98%  
203 0.3% 98%  
204 0.2% 97%  
205 0.6% 97%  
206 1.1% 96%  
207 0.1% 95%  
208 2% 95%  
209 2% 93%  
210 3% 91%  
211 0.8% 89%  
212 0.5% 88%  
213 0.2% 88%  
214 2% 87%  
215 6% 86%  
216 10% 80%  
217 0.2% 70%  
218 5% 69%  
219 1.1% 64%  
220 4% 63% Median
221 1.1% 59%  
222 24% 58%  
223 9% 34%  
224 0.7% 25%  
225 1.3% 24%  
226 2% 23%  
227 13% 21%  
228 0.9% 8%  
229 0.8% 7%  
230 3% 6%  
231 0.7% 4%  
232 0.7% 3%  
233 0.2% 2%  
234 0.3% 2%  
235 1.0% 2%  
236 0.2% 0.5%  
237 0% 0.4%  
238 0.2% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0.1% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.8%  
191 0% 99.7%  
192 0.3% 99.7%  
193 0.3% 99.4%  
194 3% 99.1%  
195 0.3% 96%  
196 0.2% 96%  
197 2% 96%  
198 0.6% 94%  
199 2% 93%  
200 5% 91%  
201 1.4% 87%  
202 24% 85%  
203 0.3% 62%  
204 2% 61%  
205 0.8% 59% Median
206 4% 59%  
207 2% 54%  
208 5% 52%  
209 3% 47%  
210 2% 45%  
211 18% 42%  
212 1.3% 24%  
213 6% 23%  
214 2% 16%  
215 2% 14%  
216 2% 12%  
217 0.9% 10%  
218 6% 9%  
219 0.8% 4%  
220 0.5% 3%  
221 0.2% 2%  
222 0.5% 2% Last Result
223 0.2% 1.5%  
224 0.3% 1.2%  
225 0.5% 0.9%  
226 0.3% 0.4%  
227 0% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0.1% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 100%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.6% 99.7%  
156 0.3% 99.2%  
157 0.3% 98.9%  
158 0.7% 98.6%  
159 0.2% 98%  
160 1.4% 98%  
161 5% 96%  
162 0.1% 91%  
163 4% 91%  
164 2% 87%  
165 1.2% 85%  
166 0.8% 84%  
167 6% 83%  
168 0.6% 77%  
169 0.7% 77%  
170 23% 76%  
171 1.1% 53%  
172 2% 52%  
173 0.8% 50% Median
174 1.2% 49%  
175 0.8% 48%  
176 2% 47% Majority
177 0.6% 45%  
178 0.3% 44%  
179 10% 44%  
180 21% 34%  
181 1.3% 14%  
182 2% 12%  
183 1.2% 10%  
184 1.3% 9%  
185 0.8% 8%  
186 2% 7%  
187 1.2% 5%  
188 0.8% 4%  
189 0.4% 3%  
190 0.4% 3%  
191 0.4% 3%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.9% 2%  
194 0.6% 1.0%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0% 0.3%  
197 0.2% 0.2%  
198 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0.1% 100%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0% 99.7%  
157 0% 99.7%  
158 0.7% 99.6%  
159 0.7% 98.9%  
160 0.2% 98%  
161 2% 98%  
162 0.7% 96%  
163 2% 95%  
164 0.9% 93%  
165 2% 92%  
166 1.0% 91%  
167 5% 90%  
168 4% 84%  
169 0.9% 80%  
170 0.4% 79%  
171 1.3% 79%  
172 4% 78%  
173 1.4% 73%  
174 0.7% 72% Median
175 4% 71%  
176 4% 67% Majority
177 25% 64%  
178 5% 39%  
179 13% 34%  
180 4% 21% Last Result
181 5% 17%  
182 1.2% 12%  
183 3% 11%  
184 0.6% 7%  
185 0.8% 7%  
186 1.4% 6%  
187 0.5% 4%  
188 1.0% 4%  
189 0.5% 3%  
190 0.3% 2%  
191 0% 2%  
192 1.3% 2%  
193 0.1% 0.6%  
194 0.3% 0.5%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.3% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 1.3% 99.4%  
158 0% 98%  
159 0.3% 98%  
160 0.5% 98%  
161 1.0% 97%  
162 0.5% 96%  
163 1.4% 96%  
164 0.8% 94%  
165 0.6% 93%  
166 3% 93%  
167 1.2% 89%  
168 5% 88%  
169 4% 83% Last Result
170 13% 79%  
171 5% 66%  
172 25% 61%  
173 4% 36% Median
174 4% 33%  
175 0.7% 29%  
176 1.4% 28% Majority
177 4% 27%  
178 1.3% 22%  
179 0.4% 21%  
180 0.9% 21%  
181 4% 20%  
182 5% 16%  
183 1.0% 10%  
184 2% 9%  
185 0.9% 8%  
186 2% 7%  
187 0.7% 5%  
188 2% 4%  
189 0.2% 2%  
190 0.7% 2%  
191 0.7% 1.1%  
192 0% 0.4%  
193 0% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0.1% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.4% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.5%  
156 1.0% 99.4%  
157 0.4% 98%  
158 0.3% 98%  
159 0.5% 98%  
160 0.3% 97%  
161 1.2% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 0.7% 94%  
164 0.7% 93%  
165 3% 93%  
166 1.1% 90%  
167 5% 88%  
168 1.2% 83%  
169 18% 82% Last Result
170 0.9% 64%  
171 7% 63%  
172 23% 56% Median
173 3% 33%  
174 1.2% 29%  
175 1.4% 28%  
176 5% 27% Majority
177 0.2% 21%  
178 0.4% 21%  
179 0.8% 21%  
180 4% 20%  
181 6% 16%  
182 0.6% 10%  
183 2% 9%  
184 0.8% 7%  
185 2% 7%  
186 0.3% 4%  
187 2% 4%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.8% 2%  
190 0.7% 1.1%  
191 0% 0.4%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0.1% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.7% 99.6%  
149 0.6% 98.9%  
150 0.1% 98%  
151 0.1% 98%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 2% 97%  
154 0.3% 96%  
155 0.8% 95%  
156 3% 94%  
157 1.2% 91%  
158 0.1% 90%  
159 0.2% 90%  
160 5% 90%  
161 5% 85%  
162 1.3% 79%  
163 0.5% 78%  
164 2% 78%  
165 6% 76%  
166 4% 70% Median
167 3% 66%  
168 24% 64%  
169 1.2% 40%  
170 5% 39%  
171 0.3% 34%  
172 4% 33%  
173 2% 30% Last Result
174 14% 28%  
175 7% 14%  
176 0.8% 7% Majority
177 0.2% 6%  
178 0.4% 6%  
179 1.0% 5%  
180 1.0% 4%  
181 1.0% 3%  
182 0% 2%  
183 0.6% 2%  
184 0.4% 2%  
185 0.2% 1.3%  
186 1.0% 1.2%  
187 0% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0.1% 100%  
140 0.2% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.7%  
143 0% 99.7%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0% 99.6%  
146 0.8% 99.5%  
147 0.1% 98.7%  
148 0.5% 98.6%  
149 2% 98%  
150 1.2% 96%  
151 0.2% 95%  
152 3% 94%  
153 2% 92%  
154 1.1% 90%  
155 1.3% 89%  
156 5% 87%  
157 0.4% 83%  
158 4% 82%  
159 4% 78%  
160 0.7% 74%  
161 0.9% 73%  
162 4% 72% Median
163 3% 68%  
164 28% 65%  
165 2% 38%  
166 0.7% 36%  
167 18% 35% Last Result
168 2% 17%  
169 2% 15%  
170 2% 13%  
171 0.4% 11%  
172 0.1% 11%  
173 5% 11%  
174 2% 5%  
175 0.4% 4%  
176 0.4% 4% Majority
177 0.4% 3%  
178 0.3% 3%  
179 0.3% 3%  
180 0.8% 2%  
181 1.0% 1.4%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0.2% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.7%  
140 0% 99.6%  
141 2% 99.6%  
142 0.9% 98%  
143 0.2% 97%  
144 0.1% 97%  
145 1.5% 97%  
146 8% 95%  
147 2% 88%  
148 2% 86%  
149 0.6% 84%  
150 0.2% 83%  
151 0.5% 83%  
152 5% 83%  
153 0.5% 78%  
154 5% 78%  
155 0.5% 73%  
156 0.6% 72%  
157 2% 72%  
158 4% 70% Median
159 6% 66%  
160 5% 60%  
161 24% 55%  
162 0.2% 31%  
163 13% 30% Last Result
164 3% 17%  
165 6% 14%  
166 1.0% 8%  
167 1.0% 7%  
168 1.1% 6%  
169 0.5% 5%  
170 2% 4%  
171 0.8% 3%  
172 0.3% 2%  
173 0.8% 2%  
174 0.2% 0.7%  
175 0.2% 0.6%  
176 0.1% 0.4% Majority
177 0.2% 0.3%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0.1% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 1.3% 99.6%  
132 0.9% 98%  
133 0% 97%  
134 0.5% 97%  
135 0.5% 97%  
136 0.1% 96%  
137 0.4% 96%  
138 1.3% 96%  
139 10% 95%  
140 0.6% 85%  
141 0.4% 84%  
142 1.1% 84%  
143 1.1% 83%  
144 0.2% 82%  
145 4% 81%  
146 0.3% 77%  
147 6% 77%  
148 1.2% 71%  
149 2% 69%  
150 4% 68% Median
151 7% 64%  
152 24% 57%  
153 2% 33%  
154 0.8% 31%  
155 2% 30%  
156 3% 28% Last Result
157 2% 26%  
158 13% 24%  
159 5% 11%  
160 0.4% 6%  
161 0.9% 6%  
162 1.4% 5%  
163 0.9% 3%  
164 0.7% 2%  
165 0.3% 2%  
166 0.4% 1.3%  
167 0% 1.0%  
168 0.5% 0.9%  
169 0.3% 0.5%  
170 0% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.1%  
92 1.5% 98.8%  
93 3% 97%  
94 0.8% 95%  
95 2% 94%  
96 3% 92%  
97 5% 89%  
98 1.3% 84%  
99 0.6% 83%  
100 24% 82%  
101 4% 59%  
102 4% 55%  
103 7% 51% Median
104 0.2% 44%  
105 0.5% 44%  
106 1.2% 43%  
107 3% 42%  
108 5% 39%  
109 5% 34%  
110 5% 29%  
111 13% 24%  
112 0.4% 10%  
113 1.1% 10%  
114 1.4% 9%  
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 6%  
117 0.6% 4%  
118 0.1% 3%  
119 0.4% 3%  
120 0.2% 3%  
121 0.9% 3%  
122 0.7% 2%  
123 0.4% 1.1%  
124 0.1% 0.7%  
125 0.3% 0.6%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.9%  
88 0.8% 99.6%  
89 0.6% 98.8%  
90 0.8% 98%  
91 1.4% 97%  
92 0.5% 96%  
93 2% 96%  
94 0.2% 94%  
95 1.0% 94%  
96 1.0% 93%  
97 0.8% 92%  
98 1.0% 91%  
99 3% 90%  
100 2% 86%  
101 14% 84%  
102 24% 70%  
103 4% 46% Median
104 7% 43%  
105 4% 36%  
106 11% 32%  
107 0.5% 20%  
108 0.4% 20%  
109 2% 19%  
110 6% 17%  
111 0.2% 11%  
112 1.4% 11%  
113 2% 9%  
114 0.3% 7%  
115 1.4% 7%  
116 1.0% 6%  
117 2% 5%  
118 0.4% 3%  
119 0.1% 2%  
120 0.3% 2%  
121 0.3% 2%  
122 0.3% 2%  
123 0.3% 1.2%  
124 0.1% 1.0%  
125 0.8% 0.8%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 1.1% 99.7%  
88 0.5% 98.7%  
89 0.3% 98%  
90 1.1% 98%  
91 1.2% 97%  
92 2% 96%  
93 0.3% 94%  
94 1.1% 94%  
95 0.9% 93%  
96 0.6% 92%  
97 1.4% 91%  
98 4% 90%  
99 0.9% 86%  
100 14% 85%  
101 5% 71%  
102 23% 66% Median
103 6% 43%  
104 7% 36%  
105 9% 30%  
106 1.0% 20%  
107 0.5% 19%  
108 2% 19%  
109 4% 17%  
110 2% 12%  
111 0.9% 10%  
112 2% 9%  
113 0.7% 7%  
114 1.1% 7%  
115 0.6% 6%  
116 3% 5%  
117 0.1% 3%  
118 0.3% 2%  
119 0.3% 2%  
120 0.3% 2%  
121 0.3% 1.5%  
122 0.2% 1.1%  
123 0.1% 0.9%  
124 0.7% 0.8%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations