Opinion Poll by CIS, 1–11 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español |
22.6% |
30.5% |
29.4–31.6% |
29.1–31.9% |
28.9–32.2% |
28.3–32.7% |
Partido Popular |
33.0% |
20.8% |
19.9–21.8% |
19.6–22.1% |
19.4–22.3% |
18.9–22.8% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
13.1% |
19.6% |
18.7–20.6% |
18.4–20.9% |
18.2–21.1% |
17.8–21.6% |
Unidos Podemos |
21.2% |
16.1% |
15.2–17.0% |
15.0–17.2% |
14.8–17.5% |
14.4–17.9% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí |
2.7% |
4.1% |
3.7–4.6% |
3.6–4.8% |
3.4–4.9% |
3.2–5.1% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català |
2.0% |
1.9% |
1.6–2.3% |
1.5–2.4% |
1.4–2.5% |
1.3–2.6% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal |
1.2% |
1.6% |
1.3–2.0% |
1.3–2.1% |
1.2–2.1% |
1.1–2.3% |
Vox |
0.2% |
1.4% |
1.2–1.7% |
1.1–1.8% |
1.0–1.9% |
0.9–2.1% |
Euskal Herria Bildu |
0.8% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.4% |
0.8–1.5% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco |
1.2% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.2% |
0.7–1.3% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.5–1.5% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.4% |
0.1–0.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0% |
100% |
|
92 |
0% |
100% |
|
93 |
0% |
100% |
|
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
100% |
|
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
100% |
|
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
100% |
|
100 |
0% |
100% |
|
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0% |
100% |
|
104 |
0% |
100% |
|
105 |
0% |
100% |
|
106 |
0% |
100% |
|
107 |
0% |
100% |
|
108 |
0% |
100% |
|
109 |
0% |
100% |
|
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
100% |
|
113 |
0% |
100% |
|
114 |
0% |
100% |
|
115 |
0% |
100% |
|
116 |
0% |
100% |
|
117 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
119 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
120 |
14% |
99.7% |
|
121 |
8% |
85% |
|
122 |
0% |
78% |
|
123 |
0.9% |
78% |
|
124 |
2% |
77% |
|
125 |
9% |
75% |
|
126 |
2% |
65% |
|
127 |
4% |
63% |
|
128 |
3% |
60% |
|
129 |
3% |
57% |
|
130 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
131 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
132 |
49% |
53% |
Median |
133 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
134 |
3% |
4% |
|
135 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
137 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
138 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
139 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
73 |
29% |
87% |
|
74 |
2% |
58% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
56% |
|
76 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
77 |
1.4% |
49% |
|
78 |
0.9% |
48% |
|
79 |
10% |
47% |
|
80 |
14% |
37% |
|
81 |
7% |
23% |
|
82 |
8% |
16% |
|
83 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
84 |
2% |
8% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
86 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
87 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
88 |
2% |
5% |
|
89 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
90 |
2% |
2% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
115 |
0% |
0% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
118 |
0% |
0% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.7% |
99.5% |
|
61 |
0.9% |
98.8% |
|
62 |
2% |
98% |
|
63 |
0% |
96% |
|
64 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
66 |
28% |
95% |
|
67 |
9% |
67% |
|
68 |
51% |
58% |
Median |
69 |
5% |
7% |
|
70 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
38 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
39 |
4% |
95% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
91% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
42 |
12% |
90% |
|
43 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
44 |
10% |
77% |
|
45 |
2% |
67% |
|
46 |
13% |
64% |
|
47 |
15% |
51% |
Median |
48 |
0.4% |
37% |
|
49 |
0.7% |
36% |
|
50 |
28% |
36% |
|
51 |
7% |
7% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
98% |
|
14 |
11% |
93% |
|
15 |
57% |
82% |
Median |
16 |
23% |
25% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
19% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
65% |
81% |
Median |
7 |
8% |
16% |
|
8 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.1% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
14% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
85% |
86% |
Median |
2 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
4 |
35% |
92% |
|
5 |
16% |
57% |
Median |
6 |
30% |
41% |
|
7 |
11% |
12% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
10% |
100% |
|
3 |
35% |
90% |
|
4 |
14% |
55% |
Median |
5 |
17% |
41% |
Last Result |
6 |
24% |
24% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
60% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
40% |
40% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
254 |
271 |
100% |
268–277 |
267–279 |
267–282 |
267–282 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos |
188 |
242 |
100% |
233–248 |
232–248 |
230–248 |
229–249 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular |
222 |
205 |
100% |
200–210 |
200–213 |
200–214 |
200–215 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco |
180 |
204 |
100% |
198–210 |
197–210 |
194–210 |
193–210 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
117 |
198 |
100% |
188–200 |
188–200 |
186–203 |
183–204 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català |
173 |
196 |
100% |
188–203 |
188–203 |
186–203 |
183–203 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu |
167 |
196 |
100% |
186–201 |
186–201 |
185–201 |
182–201 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euskal Herria Bildu – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco |
163 |
182 |
95% |
177–189 |
176–189 |
173–189 |
172–189 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco |
161 |
176 |
60% |
172–185 |
170–185 |
169–185 |
165–185 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos |
156 |
174 |
46% |
167–182 |
165–182 |
165–182 |
162–182 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco |
174 |
146 |
0% |
142–156 |
142–156 |
142–160 |
142–160 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox |
169 |
145 |
0% |
140–151 |
140–153 |
140–156 |
140–157 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario |
170 |
145 |
0% |
139–151 |
139–152 |
139–156 |
139–157 |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía |
169 |
144 |
0% |
139–150 |
139–152 |
139–156 |
139–157 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español |
85 |
132 |
0% |
120–132 |
120–132 |
120–134 |
120–135 |
Partido Popular – Vox |
137 |
77 |
0% |
73–83 |
73–88 |
73–90 |
73–91 |
Partido Popular |
137 |
76 |
0% |
72–82 |
72–88 |
72–89 |
72–90 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
254 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
267 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
268 |
14% |
93% |
|
269 |
0.3% |
78% |
|
270 |
0.4% |
78% |
|
271 |
29% |
78% |
|
272 |
15% |
49% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
34% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
34% |
|
275 |
10% |
34% |
|
276 |
11% |
24% |
Median |
277 |
5% |
13% |
|
278 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
279 |
4% |
8% |
|
280 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
281 |
0% |
3% |
|
282 |
2% |
3% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
188 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
189 |
0% |
100% |
|
190 |
0% |
100% |
|
191 |
0% |
100% |
|
192 |
0% |
100% |
|
193 |
0% |
100% |
|
194 |
0% |
100% |
|
195 |
0% |
100% |
|
196 |
0% |
100% |
|
197 |
0% |
100% |
|
198 |
0% |
100% |
|
199 |
0% |
100% |
|
200 |
0% |
100% |
|
201 |
0% |
100% |
|
202 |
0% |
100% |
|
203 |
0% |
100% |
|
204 |
0% |
100% |
|
205 |
0% |
100% |
|
206 |
0% |
100% |
|
207 |
0% |
100% |
|
208 |
0% |
100% |
|
209 |
0% |
100% |
|
210 |
0% |
100% |
|
211 |
0% |
100% |
|
212 |
0% |
100% |
|
213 |
0% |
100% |
|
214 |
0% |
100% |
|
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
100% |
|
219 |
0% |
100% |
|
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
229 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
230 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
231 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
232 |
2% |
97% |
|
233 |
5% |
95% |
|
234 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
235 |
14% |
89% |
|
236 |
0.7% |
75% |
|
237 |
7% |
74% |
|
238 |
4% |
67% |
|
239 |
7% |
62% |
|
240 |
4% |
55% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
51% |
|
242 |
6% |
51% |
|
243 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
244 |
0.9% |
45% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
44% |
|
246 |
13% |
44% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
31% |
Median |
248 |
30% |
30% |
|
249 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
197 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
200 |
21% |
99.7% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
202 |
0% |
79% |
|
203 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
204 |
13% |
78% |
|
205 |
28% |
65% |
|
206 |
0.5% |
37% |
|
207 |
10% |
36% |
|
208 |
12% |
26% |
Median |
209 |
3% |
14% |
|
210 |
3% |
10% |
|
211 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
212 |
2% |
7% |
|
213 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
214 |
4% |
5% |
|
215 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
216 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
218 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
219 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
221 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
222 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euskal Herria Bildu – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
180 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
181 |
0% |
100% |
|
182 |
0% |
100% |
|
183 |
0% |
100% |
|
184 |
0% |
100% |
|
185 |
0% |
100% |
|
186 |
0% |
100% |
|
187 |
0% |
100% |
|
188 |
0% |
100% |
|
189 |
0% |
100% |
|
190 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
191 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
192 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
193 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
194 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
195 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
197 |
3% |
95% |
|
198 |
7% |
93% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
85% |
|
200 |
21% |
85% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
64% |
|
202 |
3% |
64% |
|
203 |
9% |
61% |
|
204 |
6% |
53% |
|
205 |
1.3% |
47% |
|
206 |
3% |
45% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
43% |
|
208 |
1.0% |
42% |
|
209 |
13% |
41% |
Median |
210 |
28% |
28% |
|
211 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
117 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
118 |
0% |
100% |
|
119 |
0% |
100% |
|
120 |
0% |
100% |
|
121 |
0% |
100% |
|
122 |
0% |
100% |
|
123 |
0% |
100% |
|
124 |
0% |
100% |
|
125 |
0% |
100% |
|
126 |
0% |
100% |
|
127 |
0% |
100% |
|
128 |
0% |
100% |
|
129 |
0% |
100% |
|
130 |
0% |
100% |
|
131 |
0% |
100% |
|
132 |
0% |
100% |
|
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0% |
100% |
|
155 |
0% |
100% |
|
156 |
0% |
100% |
|
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0% |
100% |
|
159 |
0% |
100% |
|
160 |
0% |
100% |
|
161 |
0% |
100% |
|
162 |
0% |
100% |
|
163 |
0% |
100% |
|
164 |
0% |
100% |
|
165 |
0% |
100% |
|
166 |
0% |
100% |
|
167 |
0% |
100% |
|
168 |
0% |
100% |
|
169 |
0% |
100% |
|
170 |
0% |
100% |
|
171 |
0% |
100% |
|
172 |
0% |
100% |
|
173 |
0% |
100% |
|
174 |
0% |
100% |
|
175 |
0% |
100% |
|
176 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
177 |
0% |
100% |
|
178 |
0% |
100% |
|
179 |
0% |
100% |
|
180 |
0% |
100% |
|
181 |
0% |
100% |
|
182 |
0% |
100% |
|
183 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
184 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
185 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
186 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
187 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
188 |
21% |
96% |
|
189 |
0.7% |
75% |
|
190 |
0.3% |
74% |
|
191 |
0.2% |
74% |
|
192 |
0.6% |
74% |
|
193 |
8% |
73% |
|
194 |
2% |
65% |
|
195 |
4% |
63% |
|
196 |
4% |
59% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
56% |
|
198 |
31% |
56% |
|
199 |
0.3% |
25% |
|
200 |
20% |
24% |
Median |
201 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
203 |
2% |
3% |
|
204 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
205 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
206 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
173 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
174 |
0% |
100% |
|
175 |
0% |
100% |
|
176 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
177 |
0% |
100% |
|
178 |
0% |
100% |
|
179 |
0% |
100% |
|
180 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
182 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
183 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
185 |
1.1% |
99.2% |
|
186 |
2% |
98% |
|
187 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
188 |
18% |
95% |
|
189 |
3% |
78% |
|
190 |
7% |
75% |
|
191 |
6% |
68% |
|
192 |
0.5% |
62% |
|
193 |
9% |
62% |
|
194 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
195 |
0.2% |
52% |
|
196 |
7% |
52% |
|
197 |
3% |
46% |
|
198 |
1.0% |
43% |
|
199 |
13% |
42% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
29% |
Median |
201 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
203 |
28% |
28% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
206 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
207 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
167 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
168 |
0% |
100% |
|
169 |
0% |
100% |
|
170 |
0% |
100% |
|
171 |
0% |
100% |
|
172 |
0% |
100% |
|
173 |
0% |
100% |
|
174 |
0% |
100% |
|
175 |
0% |
100% |
|
176 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
177 |
0% |
100% |
|
178 |
0% |
100% |
|
179 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
180 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
182 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
183 |
1.1% |
99.4% |
|
184 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
185 |
2% |
98% |
|
186 |
8% |
96% |
|
187 |
4% |
88% |
|
188 |
16% |
84% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
68% |
|
190 |
3% |
68% |
|
191 |
1.1% |
65% |
|
192 |
10% |
64% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
195 |
2% |
54% |
|
196 |
7% |
52% |
|
197 |
3% |
45% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
42% |
|
199 |
13% |
41% |
Median |
200 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
201 |
28% |
28% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euskal Herria Bildu – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
163 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
164 |
0% |
100% |
|
165 |
0% |
100% |
|
166 |
0% |
100% |
|
167 |
0% |
100% |
|
168 |
0% |
100% |
|
169 |
0% |
100% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
171 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
172 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
173 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
174 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
175 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
176 |
3% |
95% |
Majority |
177 |
11% |
92% |
|
178 |
0.1% |
82% |
|
179 |
15% |
81% |
|
180 |
4% |
67% |
|
181 |
3% |
62% |
|
182 |
13% |
60% |
|
183 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
184 |
1.0% |
47% |
|
185 |
0.7% |
45% |
|
186 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
187 |
1.0% |
45% |
|
188 |
15% |
44% |
Median |
189 |
28% |
29% |
|
190 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
191 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
192 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
194 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
161 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
162 |
0% |
100% |
|
163 |
0% |
100% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
165 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
166 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
167 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
168 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
169 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
170 |
5% |
97% |
|
171 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
172 |
2% |
91% |
|
173 |
18% |
89% |
|
174 |
3% |
70% |
|
175 |
8% |
67% |
|
176 |
13% |
60% |
Majority |
177 |
0.2% |
47% |
|
178 |
0.3% |
46% |
|
179 |
0.9% |
46% |
|
180 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
181 |
0.3% |
45% |
|
182 |
3% |
45% |
|
183 |
13% |
42% |
Median |
184 |
0.1% |
29% |
|
185 |
28% |
29% |
|
186 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
187 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
188 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
156 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0% |
100% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
160 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
161 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
162 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
163 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
164 |
1.1% |
99.2% |
|
165 |
6% |
98% |
|
166 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
167 |
15% |
92% |
|
168 |
3% |
77% |
|
169 |
7% |
75% |
|
170 |
4% |
68% |
|
171 |
3% |
63% |
|
172 |
8% |
60% |
|
173 |
0.5% |
53% |
|
174 |
6% |
52% |
|
175 |
0.2% |
46% |
|
176 |
0.9% |
46% |
Majority |
177 |
1.1% |
45% |
|
178 |
13% |
44% |
|
179 |
2% |
31% |
Median |
180 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
181 |
0% |
28% |
|
182 |
28% |
28% |
|
183 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
185 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
186 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
187 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
138 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
139 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
140 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
142 |
28% |
99.7% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
72% |
|
144 |
0.2% |
72% |
|
145 |
13% |
71% |
|
146 |
9% |
58% |
|
147 |
1.5% |
49% |
|
148 |
2% |
48% |
Median |
149 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
150 |
7% |
46% |
|
151 |
3% |
39% |
|
152 |
4% |
36% |
|
153 |
0.6% |
32% |
|
154 |
17% |
31% |
|
155 |
0.6% |
14% |
|
156 |
9% |
13% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
158 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
160 |
2% |
3% |
|
161 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
137 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
139 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
140 |
28% |
99.6% |
|
141 |
14% |
72% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
58% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
144 |
3% |
57% |
|
145 |
7% |
54% |
Median |
146 |
9% |
47% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
39% |
|
148 |
3% |
39% |
|
149 |
14% |
36% |
|
150 |
7% |
22% |
|
151 |
8% |
15% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
153 |
3% |
7% |
|
154 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
156 |
2% |
3% |
|
157 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
137 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
139 |
28% |
99.7% |
|
140 |
13% |
72% |
|
141 |
1.0% |
59% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
58% |
|
143 |
3% |
57% |
|
144 |
0.8% |
55% |
Median |
145 |
7% |
54% |
|
146 |
2% |
47% |
|
147 |
10% |
46% |
|
148 |
0% |
36% |
|
149 |
18% |
36% |
|
150 |
3% |
18% |
|
151 |
8% |
15% |
|
152 |
3% |
7% |
|
153 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
154 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
156 |
2% |
3% |
|
157 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
135 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
136 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
137 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
139 |
28% |
99.6% |
|
140 |
14% |
72% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
58% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
143 |
3% |
57% |
|
144 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
145 |
3% |
48% |
|
146 |
7% |
46% |
|
147 |
3% |
39% |
|
148 |
14% |
36% |
|
149 |
4% |
22% |
|
150 |
11% |
18% |
|
151 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
152 |
4% |
7% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
154 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
155 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
156 |
2% |
3% |
|
157 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0% |
100% |
|
92 |
0% |
100% |
|
93 |
0% |
100% |
|
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
100% |
|
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
100% |
|
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
100% |
|
100 |
0% |
100% |
|
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0% |
100% |
|
104 |
0% |
100% |
|
105 |
0% |
100% |
|
106 |
0% |
100% |
|
107 |
0% |
100% |
|
108 |
0% |
100% |
|
109 |
0% |
100% |
|
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
100% |
|
113 |
0% |
100% |
|
114 |
0% |
100% |
|
115 |
0% |
100% |
|
116 |
0% |
100% |
|
117 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
119 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
120 |
14% |
99.7% |
|
121 |
8% |
85% |
|
122 |
0% |
78% |
|
123 |
0.9% |
78% |
|
124 |
2% |
77% |
|
125 |
9% |
75% |
|
126 |
2% |
65% |
|
127 |
4% |
63% |
|
128 |
3% |
60% |
|
129 |
3% |
57% |
|
130 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
131 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
132 |
49% |
53% |
Median |
133 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
134 |
3% |
4% |
|
135 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
137 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
138 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
139 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partido Popular – Vox

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
73 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
74 |
29% |
86% |
|
75 |
2% |
58% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
56% |
|
77 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
78 |
2% |
49% |
|
79 |
7% |
47% |
|
80 |
3% |
40% |
|
81 |
17% |
37% |
|
82 |
4% |
20% |
|
83 |
8% |
16% |
|
84 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
85 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
86 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
88 |
2% |
6% |
|
89 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
90 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
91 |
2% |
2% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
115 |
0% |
0% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
118 |
0% |
0% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partido Popular

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
73 |
29% |
87% |
|
74 |
2% |
58% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
56% |
|
76 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
77 |
1.4% |
49% |
|
78 |
0.9% |
48% |
|
79 |
10% |
47% |
|
80 |
14% |
37% |
|
81 |
7% |
23% |
|
82 |
8% |
16% |
|
83 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
84 |
2% |
8% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
86 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
87 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
88 |
2% |
5% |
|
89 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
90 |
2% |
2% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
115 |
0% |
0% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
118 |
0% |
0% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CIS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–11 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2972
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.75%