Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 10–14 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.7% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.6–27.5% | 21.9–28.3% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 24.1% | 22.5–25.7% | 22.1–26.2% | 21.7–26.6% | 21.0–27.4% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 22.1% | 20.6–23.7% | 20.2–24.1% | 19.8–24.5% | 19.1–25.3% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 18.6% | 17.2–20.1% | 16.8–20.5% | 16.5–20.9% | 15.8–21.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 95 | 90–102 | 88–105 | 87–109 | 85–113 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 96 | 89–102 | 86–104 | 84–106 | 79–112 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 73 | 70–79 | 68–82 | 67–84 | 63–89 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 60 | 53–66 | 50–68 | 47–70 | 43–73 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 3% | 97% | |
| 89 | 4% | 94% | |
| 90 | 5% | 90% | |
| 91 | 6% | 85% | |
| 92 | 5% | 79% | |
| 93 | 4% | 75% | |
| 94 | 11% | 71% | |
| 95 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 96 | 11% | 47% | |
| 97 | 10% | 36% | |
| 98 | 3% | 25% | |
| 99 | 6% | 22% | |
| 100 | 2% | 16% | |
| 101 | 2% | 14% | |
| 102 | 3% | 12% | |
| 103 | 2% | 9% | |
| 104 | 2% | 8% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 87 | 2% | 95% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 89 | 3% | 91% | |
| 90 | 2% | 88% | |
| 91 | 4% | 86% | |
| 92 | 5% | 82% | |
| 93 | 6% | 77% | |
| 94 | 10% | 71% | |
| 95 | 6% | 62% | |
| 96 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 97 | 10% | 49% | |
| 98 | 7% | 39% | |
| 99 | 4% | 32% | |
| 100 | 6% | 27% | |
| 101 | 6% | 21% | |
| 102 | 6% | 15% | |
| 103 | 3% | 10% | |
| 104 | 2% | 7% | |
| 105 | 2% | 4% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 98.5% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 3% | 94% | |
| 70 | 4% | 91% | |
| 71 | 4% | 87% | |
| 72 | 20% | 83% | |
| 73 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 45% | |
| 75 | 7% | 32% | |
| 76 | 5% | 25% | |
| 77 | 5% | 20% | |
| 78 | 3% | 15% | |
| 79 | 3% | 12% | |
| 80 | 2% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 7% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 50 | 2% | 96% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 53 | 2% | 91% | |
| 54 | 3% | 89% | |
| 55 | 4% | 86% | |
| 56 | 5% | 82% | |
| 57 | 8% | 77% | |
| 58 | 5% | 69% | |
| 59 | 11% | 64% | |
| 60 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 37% | |
| 62 | 3% | 25% | |
| 63 | 5% | 22% | |
| 64 | 3% | 17% | |
| 65 | 4% | 14% | |
| 66 | 2% | 11% | |
| 67 | 3% | 9% | |
| 68 | 2% | 6% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 2% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 265 | 100% | 259–272 | 257–275 | 255–277 | 252–281 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 229 | 100% | 222–236 | 220–239 | 218–241 | 213–245 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 192 | 99.4% | 185–198 | 181–201 | 179–205 | 175–209 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 169 | 15% | 163–177 | 161–181 | 160–184 | 157–189 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 170 | 14% | 163–177 | 160–179 | 158–182 | 153–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 155 | 0% | 148–162 | 146–165 | 143–167 | 138–171 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 95 | 0% | 90–102 | 88–105 | 87–109 | 85–113 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 96 | 0% | 89–102 | 86–104 | 84–106 | 79–112 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 253 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 254 | 0.9% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 256 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 257 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 258 | 3% | 94% | |
| 259 | 3% | 92% | |
| 260 | 4% | 89% | |
| 261 | 2% | 85% | |
| 262 | 6% | 83% | |
| 263 | 4% | 77% | |
| 264 | 11% | 73% | Median |
| 265 | 15% | 62% | |
| 266 | 11% | 47% | |
| 267 | 6% | 36% | |
| 268 | 7% | 30% | |
| 269 | 5% | 23% | |
| 270 | 4% | 18% | |
| 271 | 3% | 14% | |
| 272 | 2% | 11% | |
| 273 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 274 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 275 | 2% | 7% | |
| 276 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 277 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 278 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 279 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 280 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 281 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 209 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 218 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 219 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 220 | 2% | 97% | |
| 221 | 2% | 95% | |
| 222 | 3% | 93% | |
| 223 | 5% | 89% | |
| 224 | 6% | 84% | |
| 225 | 6% | 78% | |
| 226 | 4% | 72% | |
| 227 | 7% | 68% | |
| 228 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 229 | 7% | 51% | |
| 230 | 6% | 44% | |
| 231 | 10% | 38% | |
| 232 | 6% | 29% | |
| 233 | 4% | 23% | |
| 234 | 4% | 18% | |
| 235 | 2% | 14% | |
| 236 | 3% | 12% | |
| 237 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 238 | 2% | 7% | |
| 239 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 240 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 241 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 242 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 244 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 171 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 180 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 183 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 184 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 185 | 2% | 91% | |
| 186 | 2% | 88% | |
| 187 | 3% | 86% | |
| 188 | 4% | 83% | |
| 189 | 6% | 78% | |
| 190 | 8% | 73% | |
| 191 | 9% | 65% | Median |
| 192 | 14% | 56% | |
| 193 | 12% | 42% | |
| 194 | 7% | 30% | |
| 195 | 5% | 23% | |
| 196 | 5% | 18% | |
| 197 | 2% | 13% | |
| 198 | 2% | 11% | |
| 199 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 200 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 201 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 202 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 203 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 204 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 206 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 208 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 159 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 160 | 2% | 98% | |
| 161 | 2% | 96% | |
| 162 | 3% | 94% | |
| 163 | 4% | 91% | |
| 164 | 5% | 87% | |
| 165 | 5% | 82% | |
| 166 | 7% | 77% | |
| 167 | 8% | 70% | |
| 168 | 11% | 62% | Median |
| 169 | 9% | 51% | |
| 170 | 4% | 42% | |
| 171 | 6% | 38% | |
| 172 | 6% | 32% | |
| 173 | 5% | 26% | |
| 174 | 3% | 21% | |
| 175 | 3% | 18% | |
| 176 | 2% | 15% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 13% | |
| 178 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 179 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 181 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 182 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 160 | 2% | 96% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 162 | 2% | 93% | |
| 163 | 4% | 91% | |
| 164 | 3% | 87% | |
| 165 | 5% | 85% | |
| 166 | 4% | 80% | |
| 167 | 6% | 76% | |
| 168 | 6% | 70% | |
| 169 | 10% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 170 | 9% | 55% | |
| 171 | 8% | 46% | |
| 172 | 7% | 38% | |
| 173 | 5% | 31% | |
| 174 | 7% | 27% | |
| 175 | 5% | 20% | |
| 176 | 4% | 14% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 11% | |
| 178 | 2% | 8% | |
| 179 | 2% | 6% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 181 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 146 | 2% | 95% | |
| 147 | 2% | 94% | |
| 148 | 3% | 92% | |
| 149 | 3% | 88% | |
| 150 | 5% | 85% | |
| 151 | 6% | 80% | |
| 152 | 5% | 73% | |
| 153 | 7% | 69% | |
| 154 | 8% | 62% | |
| 155 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 156 | 10% | 45% | Last Result |
| 157 | 6% | 35% | |
| 158 | 6% | 30% | |
| 159 | 4% | 23% | |
| 160 | 4% | 20% | |
| 161 | 3% | 15% | |
| 162 | 3% | 13% | |
| 163 | 2% | 9% | |
| 164 | 2% | 7% | |
| 165 | 2% | 6% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 3% | 97% | |
| 89 | 4% | 94% | |
| 90 | 5% | 90% | |
| 91 | 6% | 85% | |
| 92 | 5% | 79% | |
| 93 | 4% | 75% | |
| 94 | 11% | 71% | |
| 95 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 96 | 11% | 47% | |
| 97 | 10% | 36% | |
| 98 | 3% | 25% | |
| 99 | 6% | 22% | |
| 100 | 2% | 16% | |
| 101 | 2% | 14% | |
| 102 | 3% | 12% | |
| 103 | 2% | 9% | |
| 104 | 2% | 8% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 106 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 110 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 86 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 87 | 2% | 95% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 89 | 3% | 91% | |
| 90 | 2% | 88% | |
| 91 | 4% | 86% | |
| 92 | 5% | 82% | |
| 93 | 6% | 77% | |
| 94 | 10% | 71% | |
| 95 | 6% | 62% | |
| 96 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 97 | 10% | 49% | |
| 98 | 7% | 39% | |
| 99 | 4% | 32% | |
| 100 | 6% | 27% | |
| 101 | 6% | 21% | |
| 102 | 6% | 15% | |
| 103 | 3% | 10% | |
| 104 | 2% | 7% | |
| 105 | 2% | 4% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Invymark
- Commissioner(s): laSexta
- Fieldwork period: 10–14 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.10%