Opinion Poll by Simple Lógica for eldebate.es, 2 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 25.3% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.7–28.1% | 21.9–29.0% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 23.1% | 21.4–24.9% | 21.0–25.4% | 20.6–25.8% | 19.8–26.7% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.0–24.7% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 15.9% | 14.5–17.5% | 14.1–17.9% | 13.8–18.3% | 13.1–19.1% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 103 | 93–113 | 91–117 | 90–118 | 88–122 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 81 | 74–94 | 73–97 | 71–98 | 69–103 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 86 | 76–95 | 74–96 | 74–98 | 71–103 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 50 | 41–60 | 40–63 | 37–63 | 35–66 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Vox | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 91 | 5% | 97% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 94 | 2% | 90% | |
| 95 | 5% | 88% | |
| 96 | 6% | 83% | |
| 97 | 2% | 77% | |
| 98 | 5% | 75% | |
| 99 | 6% | 70% | |
| 100 | 4% | 64% | |
| 101 | 4% | 60% | |
| 102 | 5% | 56% | |
| 103 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 104 | 8% | 47% | |
| 105 | 1.2% | 39% | |
| 106 | 2% | 38% | |
| 107 | 4% | 36% | |
| 108 | 3% | 32% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 29% | |
| 110 | 10% | 29% | |
| 111 | 2% | 18% | |
| 112 | 2% | 16% | |
| 113 | 4% | 14% | |
| 114 | 2% | 10% | |
| 115 | 2% | 8% | |
| 116 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 117 | 2% | 5% | |
| 118 | 2% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 73 | 3% | 95% | |
| 74 | 8% | 92% | |
| 75 | 3% | 84% | |
| 76 | 8% | 81% | |
| 77 | 3% | 73% | |
| 78 | 2% | 70% | |
| 79 | 5% | 68% | |
| 80 | 7% | 62% | |
| 81 | 7% | 56% | Median |
| 82 | 4% | 49% | |
| 83 | 2% | 45% | |
| 84 | 5% | 43% | |
| 85 | 6% | 38% | |
| 86 | 3% | 32% | |
| 87 | 4% | 28% | |
| 88 | 2% | 24% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 91 | 4% | 21% | |
| 92 | 4% | 17% | |
| 93 | 2% | 13% | |
| 94 | 2% | 10% | |
| 95 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 97 | 2% | 7% | |
| 98 | 2% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 98% | |
| 75 | 2% | 95% | |
| 76 | 3% | 93% | |
| 77 | 6% | 90% | |
| 78 | 6% | 84% | |
| 79 | 5% | 78% | |
| 80 | 2% | 73% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 71% | |
| 82 | 3% | 70% | |
| 83 | 3% | 67% | |
| 84 | 6% | 64% | |
| 85 | 6% | 57% | |
| 86 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 87 | 5% | 46% | |
| 88 | 3% | 42% | |
| 89 | 7% | 39% | |
| 90 | 7% | 31% | |
| 91 | 6% | 25% | |
| 92 | 2% | 19% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 94 | 4% | 16% | |
| 95 | 5% | 11% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 39 | 2% | 97% | |
| 40 | 3% | 95% | |
| 41 | 7% | 93% | |
| 42 | 5% | 85% | |
| 43 | 2% | 80% | |
| 44 | 2% | 78% | |
| 45 | 3% | 76% | |
| 46 | 4% | 73% | |
| 47 | 6% | 68% | |
| 48 | 3% | 62% | |
| 49 | 6% | 60% | |
| 50 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 51 | 6% | 48% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 42% | |
| 53 | 6% | 41% | |
| 54 | 4% | 35% | |
| 55 | 6% | 31% | |
| 56 | 4% | 25% | |
| 57 | 3% | 21% | |
| 58 | 7% | 19% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 60 | 2% | 10% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 62 | 2% | 8% | |
| 63 | 4% | 6% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular | 254 | 271 | 100% | 263–281 | 259–282 | 258–283 | 256–284 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 236 | 100% | 227–246 | 226–248 | 224–250 | 218–251 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 186 | 89% | 175–197 | 172–200 | 169–204 | 166–208 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 189 | 93% | 177–198 | 175–202 | 172–203 | 168–207 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox | 169 | 170 | 29% | 159–182 | 157–185 | 154–187 | 151–191 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular | 169 | 168 | 17% | 158–180 | 155–183 | 152–185 | 149–189 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 154 | 0.1% | 142–163 | 139–166 | 137–169 | 132–173 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 103 | 0% | 93–113 | 91–117 | 90–118 | 88–122 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 88 | 0% | 78–97 | 76–98 | 75–99 | 73–105 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 86 | 0% | 76–95 | 74–96 | 74–98 | 71–103 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 256 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 257 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 258 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 259 | 2% | 96% | |
| 260 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 261 | 2% | 94% | |
| 262 | 2% | 92% | |
| 263 | 2% | 91% | |
| 264 | 3% | 89% | |
| 265 | 4% | 86% | |
| 266 | 5% | 82% | |
| 267 | 7% | 76% | |
| 268 | 3% | 69% | |
| 269 | 6% | 66% | |
| 270 | 4% | 60% | Median |
| 271 | 8% | 56% | |
| 272 | 5% | 48% | |
| 273 | 5% | 43% | |
| 274 | 4% | 38% | |
| 275 | 6% | 34% | |
| 276 | 3% | 29% | |
| 277 | 2% | 26% | |
| 278 | 3% | 24% | |
| 279 | 4% | 21% | |
| 280 | 5% | 17% | |
| 281 | 5% | 12% | |
| 282 | 3% | 7% | |
| 283 | 2% | 4% | |
| 284 | 2% | 2% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 286 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 100% | |
| 207 | 0% | 100% | |
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 100% | |
| 211 | 0% | 100% | |
| 212 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 214 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 215 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 221 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 222 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 223 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 224 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 225 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 226 | 4% | 96% | |
| 227 | 5% | 92% | |
| 228 | 2% | 88% | |
| 229 | 1.5% | 85% | |
| 230 | 6% | 84% | |
| 231 | 6% | 77% | |
| 232 | 3% | 71% | |
| 233 | 3% | 68% | |
| 234 | 5% | 66% | Median |
| 235 | 8% | 61% | |
| 236 | 7% | 53% | |
| 237 | 5% | 45% | |
| 238 | 6% | 40% | |
| 239 | 3% | 34% | |
| 240 | 2% | 31% | |
| 241 | 2% | 29% | |
| 242 | 3% | 27% | |
| 243 | 6% | 24% | |
| 244 | 2% | 18% | |
| 245 | 4% | 16% | |
| 246 | 2% | 11% | |
| 247 | 3% | 9% | |
| 248 | 2% | 6% | |
| 249 | 2% | 4% | |
| 250 | 2% | 3% | |
| 251 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 172 | 2% | 95% | |
| 173 | 2% | 94% | |
| 174 | 2% | 92% | |
| 175 | 2% | 91% | |
| 176 | 3% | 89% | Majority |
| 177 | 4% | 86% | |
| 178 | 4% | 81% | |
| 179 | 2% | 77% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 75% | |
| 181 | 5% | 74% | |
| 182 | 5% | 69% | |
| 183 | 3% | 64% | |
| 184 | 5% | 61% | Median |
| 185 | 5% | 56% | |
| 186 | 3% | 51% | |
| 187 | 4% | 48% | |
| 188 | 4% | 44% | |
| 189 | 7% | 40% | |
| 190 | 3% | 33% | |
| 191 | 3% | 31% | |
| 192 | 3% | 28% | |
| 193 | 2% | 24% | |
| 194 | 4% | 22% | |
| 195 | 2% | 18% | |
| 196 | 3% | 16% | |
| 197 | 5% | 13% | |
| 198 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 199 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 201 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 204 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 207 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 175 | 3% | 96% | |
| 176 | 3% | 93% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 90% | |
| 178 | 3% | 88% | |
| 179 | 2% | 85% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 83% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 182 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 183 | 1.1% | 81% | |
| 184 | 2% | 80% | |
| 185 | 7% | 78% | |
| 186 | 3% | 71% | |
| 187 | 10% | 68% | |
| 188 | 6% | 58% | |
| 189 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 190 | 2% | 44% | |
| 191 | 4% | 42% | |
| 192 | 4% | 38% | |
| 193 | 0.8% | 34% | |
| 194 | 2% | 33% | |
| 195 | 11% | 31% | |
| 196 | 5% | 20% | |
| 197 | 3% | 15% | |
| 198 | 2% | 12% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 200 | 2% | 9% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 202 | 3% | 6% | |
| 203 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 204 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 154 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 157 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 158 | 2% | 94% | |
| 159 | 2% | 92% | |
| 160 | 3% | 90% | |
| 161 | 4% | 87% | |
| 162 | 6% | 84% | |
| 163 | 3% | 78% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 165 | 3% | 75% | |
| 166 | 4% | 72% | |
| 167 | 7% | 68% | |
| 168 | 7% | 60% | |
| 169 | 3% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 170 | 3% | 50% | |
| 171 | 8% | 47% | |
| 172 | 2% | 39% | |
| 173 | 2% | 36% | |
| 174 | 2% | 35% | |
| 175 | 4% | 33% | |
| 176 | 7% | 29% | Majority |
| 177 | 5% | 22% | |
| 178 | 3% | 17% | |
| 179 | 2% | 14% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 181 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 183 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 184 | 3% | 9% | |
| 185 | 3% | 6% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 156 | 2% | 95% | |
| 157 | 2% | 93% | |
| 158 | 3% | 90% | |
| 159 | 3% | 88% | |
| 160 | 6% | 85% | |
| 161 | 4% | 79% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 76% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 75% | |
| 164 | 5% | 74% | |
| 165 | 8% | 69% | |
| 166 | 7% | 61% | |
| 167 | 2% | 54% | Median |
| 168 | 4% | 51% | |
| 169 | 6% | 48% | Last Result |
| 170 | 5% | 42% | |
| 171 | 2% | 37% | |
| 172 | 2% | 36% | |
| 173 | 4% | 33% | |
| 174 | 7% | 29% | |
| 175 | 5% | 23% | |
| 176 | 3% | 17% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 14% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 182 | 3% | 9% | |
| 183 | 4% | 6% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 136 | 0.9% | 98.5% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 139 | 3% | 97% | |
| 140 | 2% | 94% | |
| 141 | 2% | 92% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 90% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 145 | 3% | 87% | |
| 146 | 4% | 84% | |
| 147 | 3% | 80% | |
| 148 | 4% | 76% | |
| 149 | 6% | 73% | |
| 150 | 2% | 66% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 65% | |
| 152 | 4% | 63% | |
| 153 | 3% | 59% | Median |
| 154 | 7% | 57% | |
| 155 | 5% | 49% | |
| 156 | 11% | 45% | Last Result |
| 157 | 5% | 34% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 28% | |
| 159 | 3% | 27% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 161 | 6% | 24% | |
| 162 | 4% | 18% | |
| 163 | 6% | 15% | |
| 164 | 2% | 9% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 91 | 5% | 97% | |
| 92 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 94 | 2% | 90% | |
| 95 | 5% | 88% | |
| 96 | 6% | 83% | |
| 97 | 2% | 77% | |
| 98 | 5% | 75% | |
| 99 | 6% | 70% | |
| 100 | 4% | 64% | |
| 101 | 4% | 60% | |
| 102 | 5% | 56% | |
| 103 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 104 | 8% | 47% | |
| 105 | 1.2% | 39% | |
| 106 | 2% | 38% | |
| 107 | 4% | 36% | |
| 108 | 3% | 32% | |
| 109 | 0.9% | 29% | |
| 110 | 10% | 29% | |
| 111 | 2% | 18% | |
| 112 | 2% | 16% | |
| 113 | 4% | 14% | |
| 114 | 2% | 10% | |
| 115 | 2% | 8% | |
| 116 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 117 | 2% | 5% | |
| 118 | 2% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 3% | 97% | |
| 77 | 3% | 94% | |
| 78 | 3% | 91% | |
| 79 | 5% | 88% | |
| 80 | 5% | 83% | |
| 81 | 6% | 78% | |
| 82 | 2% | 72% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 84 | 3% | 70% | |
| 85 | 3% | 66% | |
| 86 | 6% | 63% | |
| 87 | 6% | 57% | |
| 88 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 89 | 5% | 46% | |
| 90 | 7% | 41% | |
| 91 | 5% | 34% | |
| 92 | 4% | 29% | |
| 93 | 7% | 25% | |
| 94 | 2% | 18% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 96 | 4% | 15% | |
| 97 | 5% | 11% | |
| 98 | 3% | 6% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 98% | |
| 75 | 2% | 95% | |
| 76 | 3% | 93% | |
| 77 | 6% | 90% | |
| 78 | 6% | 84% | |
| 79 | 5% | 78% | |
| 80 | 2% | 73% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 71% | |
| 82 | 3% | 70% | |
| 83 | 3% | 67% | |
| 84 | 6% | 64% | |
| 85 | 6% | 57% | |
| 86 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 87 | 5% | 46% | |
| 88 | 3% | 42% | |
| 89 | 7% | 39% | |
| 90 | 7% | 31% | |
| 91 | 6% | 25% | |
| 92 | 2% | 19% | |
| 93 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 94 | 4% | 16% | |
| 95 | 5% | 11% | |
| 96 | 3% | 7% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Simple Lógica
- Commissioner(s): eldebate.es
- Fieldwork period: 2 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.30%