Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 1–5 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 27.7% | 26.0–29.5% | 25.6–30.0% | 25.1–30.5% | 24.4–31.3% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 26.3% | 24.6–28.0% | 24.2–28.5% | 23.7–29.0% | 23.0–29.8% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 19.3% | 17.8–20.9% | 17.4–21.3% | 17.0–21.7% | 16.4–22.5% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 17.4% | 16.0–18.9% | 15.6–19.3% | 15.2–19.7% | 14.6–20.5% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 114 | 93–118 | 93–119 | 93–119 | 91–123 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 103 | 95–109 | 95–114 | 92–116 | 85–123 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 64 | 58–70 | 58–70 | 58–70 | 52–74 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 45 | 45–59 | 45–62 | 40–62 | 36–64 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 9 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–15 | 7–15 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–11 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 3 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 2–8 |
| Vox | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 2–5 | 1–6 | 1–6 | 1–7 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0% | 98% | |
| 93 | 9% | 98% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 103 | 2% | 83% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 105 | 3% | 81% | |
| 106 | 7% | 78% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 71% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 71% | |
| 109 | 2% | 70% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 68% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 68% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 67% | |
| 113 | 6% | 67% | |
| 114 | 44% | 61% | Median |
| 115 | 6% | 16% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 118 | 4% | 10% | |
| 119 | 5% | 6% | |
| 120 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 95 | 6% | 95% | |
| 96 | 2% | 89% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 98 | 4% | 87% | |
| 99 | 14% | 82% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 68% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 68% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 67% | |
| 103 | 45% | 67% | Median |
| 104 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 21% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 108 | 5% | 20% | |
| 109 | 6% | 15% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 114 | 3% | 6% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 12% | 98% | |
| 59 | 6% | 87% | |
| 60 | 4% | 81% | |
| 61 | 6% | 77% | |
| 62 | 4% | 71% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 67% | |
| 64 | 45% | 66% | Median |
| 65 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 66 | 6% | 20% | |
| 67 | 2% | 14% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 70 | 9% | 10% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 45 | 56% | 95% | Median |
| 46 | 4% | 39% | |
| 47 | 2% | 35% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 32% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 50 | 3% | 32% | |
| 51 | 7% | 29% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 22% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 57 | 6% | 19% | |
| 58 | 4% | 14% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 62 | 9% | 10% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 58% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 0.6% | 35% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 34% | |
| 12 | 15% | 33% | |
| 13 | 5% | 18% | |
| 14 | 8% | 13% | |
| 15 | 5% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 5 | 5% | 94% | |
| 6 | 15% | 89% | |
| 7 | 10% | 74% | |
| 8 | 62% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 52% | 90% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 38% | |
| 5 | 8% | 28% | Last Result |
| 6 | 12% | 20% | |
| 7 | 7% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 53% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 63% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 12% | 28% | |
| 4 | 5% | 15% | |
| 5 | 5% | 10% | |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | |
| 1 | 73% | 84% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 277 | 100% | 263–281 | 262–281 | 262–281 | 260–289 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 223 | 100% | 214–227 | 206–229 | 204–230 | 199–236 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 216 | 100% | 198–217 | 192–217 | 192–220 | 192–229 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 181 | 93% | 179–191 | 172–191 | 168–196 | 165–202 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 176 | 72% | 171–185 | 164–186 | 156–189 | 156–193 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 170 | 9% | 161–175 | 160–182 | 155–186 | 151–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 170 | 20% | 165–181 | 161–182 | 157–185 | 154–191 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 168 | 6% | 159–170 | 159–178 | 153–182 | 148–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 178 | 62% | 163–180 | 159–181 | 158–181 | 151–186 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 168 | 5% | 158–169 | 158–177 | 153–181 | 146–181 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 167 | 5% | 158–169 | 158–177 | 152–181 | 146–181 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 164 | 7% | 161–175 | 154–176 | 150–176 | 145–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 162 | 0.9% | 157–171 | 151–172 | 144–172 | 141–179 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 159 | 0.1% | 154–164 | 146–170 | 138–170 | 136–174 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 114 | 0% | 93–118 | 93–119 | 93–119 | 91–123 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 104 | 0% | 95–109 | 95–114 | 93–116 | 85–123 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 103 | 0% | 95–109 | 95–114 | 92–116 | 85–123 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 260 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 262 | 9% | 99.0% | |
| 263 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 265 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 267 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 269 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 270 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 271 | 10% | 86% | |
| 272 | 3% | 76% | |
| 273 | 8% | 74% | |
| 274 | 1.0% | 66% | |
| 275 | 1.5% | 65% | |
| 276 | 6% | 63% | |
| 277 | 9% | 57% | |
| 278 | 0.3% | 48% | |
| 279 | 0.4% | 48% | |
| 280 | 0.2% | 48% | |
| 281 | 45% | 48% | Median |
| 282 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 283 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 284 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 285 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 287 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 289 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 290 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 292 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 199 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 201 | 0% | 98% | |
| 202 | 0% | 98% | |
| 203 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 205 | 2% | 97% | |
| 206 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 210 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 214 | 2% | 92% | |
| 215 | 7% | 90% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 81% | |
| 220 | 0.7% | 80% | |
| 221 | 3% | 80% | |
| 222 | 0.4% | 76% | |
| 223 | 45% | 76% | Median |
| 224 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 225 | 13% | 31% | |
| 226 | 8% | 18% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 229 | 7% | 10% | |
| 230 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 231 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 235 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 195 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 197 | 0% | 90% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 204 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 205 | 3% | 88% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 209 | 1.1% | 85% | |
| 210 | 6% | 84% | |
| 211 | 2% | 77% | |
| 212 | 5% | 75% | |
| 213 | 6% | 70% | |
| 214 | 1.3% | 64% | |
| 215 | 9% | 63% | |
| 216 | 5% | 54% | |
| 217 | 46% | 49% | Median |
| 218 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 220 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 221 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 226 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 229 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 168 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 171 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 176 | 0.9% | 93% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.3% | 92% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 180 | 9% | 89% | Last Result |
| 181 | 51% | 80% | Median |
| 182 | 2% | 29% | |
| 183 | 4% | 28% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 24% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 23% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 23% | |
| 187 | 6% | 22% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 191 | 12% | 15% | |
| 192 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0% | 3% | |
| 196 | 2% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 202 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 169 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 171 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 89% | Last Result |
| 174 | 16% | 88% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 72% | |
| 176 | 45% | 72% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 0.9% | 27% | |
| 178 | 4% | 26% | |
| 179 | 5% | 22% | |
| 180 | 6% | 18% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 183 | 0% | 11% | |
| 184 | 0% | 11% | |
| 185 | 2% | 11% | |
| 186 | 5% | 9% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 189 | 2% | 3% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 193 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 155 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0% | 97% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 160 | 5% | 97% | |
| 161 | 2% | 91% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 166 | 4% | 88% | |
| 167 | 7% | 83% | |
| 168 | 3% | 76% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 73% | |
| 170 | 45% | 72% | Median |
| 171 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 172 | 7% | 27% | |
| 173 | 9% | 20% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 11% | Last Result |
| 175 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 9% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 179 | 2% | 8% | |
| 180 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 182 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 187 | 2% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 157 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 162 | 2% | 95% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 164 | 2% | 92% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 90% | Last Result |
| 168 | 7% | 90% | |
| 169 | 9% | 83% | |
| 170 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 171 | 0.2% | 29% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 29% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 28% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 175 | 7% | 27% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 20% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 178 | 8% | 19% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 181 | 5% | 11% | |
| 182 | 2% | 5% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 185 | 2% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 97% | |
| 155 | 0% | 97% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 159 | 12% | 96% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 163 | 6% | 84% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 166 | 4% | 76% | |
| 167 | 7% | 73% | |
| 168 | 45% | 65% | Median |
| 169 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 170 | 9% | 19% | Last Result |
| 171 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 173 | 2% | 9% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 6% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 179 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 182 | 2% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 155 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 158 | 2% | 98% | |
| 159 | 2% | 96% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 162 | 0% | 93% | |
| 163 | 13% | 93% | |
| 164 | 7% | 81% | |
| 165 | 2% | 74% | |
| 166 | 0.9% | 73% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 72% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 71% | |
| 169 | 1.4% | 71% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 70% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 69% | |
| 172 | 6% | 69% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 63% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 63% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 62% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 62% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.4% | 62% | |
| 178 | 45% | 62% | Median |
| 179 | 6% | 17% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 181 | 8% | 10% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 155 | 0% | 97% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 158 | 8% | 96% | |
| 159 | 5% | 89% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 161 | 6% | 84% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 78% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 77% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 77% | |
| 166 | 0.8% | 76% | |
| 167 | 10% | 75% | |
| 168 | 46% | 65% | Median |
| 169 | 9% | 19% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 172 | 2% | 9% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 181 | 3% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 152 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 155 | 0% | 97% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 158 | 7% | 96% | |
| 159 | 5% | 89% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 161 | 6% | 84% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 77% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 76% | |
| 166 | 4% | 76% | |
| 167 | 51% | 71% | Median |
| 168 | 1.5% | 20% | |
| 169 | 9% | 19% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 172 | 2% | 9% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 176 | 0% | 5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 181 | 3% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 150 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 156 | 2% | 94% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 161 | 9% | 91% | |
| 162 | 2% | 82% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 80% | Last Result |
| 164 | 51% | 79% | Median |
| 165 | 0.7% | 28% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 27% | |
| 167 | 6% | 27% | |
| 168 | 4% | 20% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 170 | 3% | 17% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 175 | 6% | 13% | |
| 176 | 6% | 7% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 144 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 146 | 0% | 96% | |
| 147 | 0% | 96% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 150 | 0% | 95% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 155 | 2% | 93% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 159 | 9% | 90% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 80% | |
| 161 | 2% | 80% | Last Result |
| 162 | 51% | 78% | Median |
| 163 | 0.4% | 27% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 165 | 4% | 26% | |
| 166 | 6% | 22% | |
| 167 | 2% | 16% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 171 | 4% | 13% | |
| 172 | 7% | 9% | |
| 173 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 148 | 2% | 94% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 154 | 3% | 90% | |
| 155 | 9% | 88% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 79% | Last Result |
| 157 | 7% | 78% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 159 | 44% | 71% | Median |
| 160 | 6% | 26% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 163 | 4% | 19% | |
| 164 | 6% | 16% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 168 | 0% | 9% | |
| 169 | 2% | 9% | |
| 170 | 5% | 7% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 172 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0% | 98% | |
| 93 | 9% | 98% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 85% | |
| 101 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 103 | 2% | 83% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 105 | 3% | 81% | |
| 106 | 7% | 78% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 71% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 71% | |
| 109 | 2% | 70% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 68% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 68% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 67% | |
| 113 | 6% | 67% | |
| 114 | 44% | 61% | Median |
| 115 | 6% | 16% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 118 | 4% | 10% | |
| 119 | 5% | 6% | |
| 120 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 92 | 0% | 98% | |
| 93 | 2% | 98% | |
| 94 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 95 | 6% | 95% | |
| 96 | 2% | 89% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 98 | 5% | 87% | |
| 99 | 14% | 82% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 68% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 68% | |
| 103 | 0.4% | 67% | |
| 104 | 45% | 67% | Median |
| 105 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 108 | 2% | 20% | |
| 109 | 10% | 18% | |
| 110 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 114 | 3% | 6% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 95 | 6% | 95% | |
| 96 | 2% | 89% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 98 | 4% | 87% | |
| 99 | 14% | 82% | |
| 100 | 0.6% | 68% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 68% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 67% | |
| 103 | 45% | 67% | Median |
| 104 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 21% | |
| 107 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 108 | 5% | 20% | |
| 109 | 6% | 15% | |
| 110 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 112 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 114 | 3% | 6% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 1–5 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.37%