Opinion Poll by Metroscopia for Henneo, 16–18 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 25.2% | 23.8–26.6% | 23.4–27.0% | 23.1–27.4% | 22.5–28.1% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 22.6% | 21.3–24.0% | 20.9–24.4% | 20.6–24.7% | 20.0–25.4% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 19.2% | 18.0–20.5% | 17.6–20.9% | 17.3–21.2% | 16.8–21.9% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 17.7% | 16.5–19.0% | 16.2–19.3% | 15.9–19.7% | 15.3–20.3% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 5.1% | 4.5–5.9% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.8–6.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 100 | 94–109 | 93–112 | 92–115 | 89–118 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 94 | 85–100 | 82–102 | 81–103 | 78–107 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 65 | 61–71 | 59–72 | 59–73 | 57–76 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 58 | 51–64 | 49–66 | 47–67 | 42–70 |
| Vox | 0 | 6 | 6–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 5% | 96% | |
| 94 | 4% | 91% | |
| 95 | 8% | 87% | |
| 96 | 8% | 79% | |
| 97 | 7% | 70% | |
| 98 | 4% | 63% | |
| 99 | 6% | 59% | |
| 100 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 101 | 9% | 46% | |
| 102 | 4% | 38% | |
| 103 | 5% | 34% | |
| 104 | 4% | 28% | |
| 105 | 3% | 24% | |
| 106 | 3% | 21% | |
| 107 | 5% | 18% | |
| 108 | 2% | 13% | |
| 109 | 1.5% | 11% | |
| 110 | 2% | 10% | |
| 111 | 2% | 8% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 85 | 3% | 92% | |
| 86 | 3% | 89% | |
| 87 | 5% | 86% | |
| 88 | 5% | 81% | |
| 89 | 3% | 76% | |
| 90 | 4% | 73% | |
| 91 | 5% | 69% | |
| 92 | 6% | 65% | |
| 93 | 6% | 59% | |
| 94 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 95 | 11% | 47% | |
| 96 | 8% | 36% | |
| 97 | 7% | 28% | |
| 98 | 3% | 21% | |
| 99 | 6% | 18% | |
| 100 | 4% | 12% | |
| 101 | 3% | 8% | |
| 102 | 2% | 5% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 59 | 4% | 98% | |
| 60 | 3% | 95% | |
| 61 | 5% | 92% | |
| 62 | 4% | 87% | |
| 63 | 13% | 83% | |
| 64 | 10% | 70% | |
| 65 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 66 | 9% | 48% | |
| 67 | 6% | 39% | |
| 68 | 7% | 33% | |
| 69 | 4% | 27% | |
| 70 | 4% | 23% | |
| 71 | 11% | 18% | |
| 72 | 4% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 48 | 2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 2% | 95% | |
| 50 | 2% | 93% | |
| 51 | 3% | 91% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 88% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 55 | 2% | 85% | |
| 56 | 15% | 83% | |
| 57 | 16% | 68% | |
| 58 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 59 | 11% | 44% | |
| 60 | 9% | 32% | |
| 61 | 6% | 23% | |
| 62 | 2% | 17% | |
| 63 | 3% | 15% | |
| 64 | 3% | 13% | |
| 65 | 3% | 10% | |
| 66 | 3% | 7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 97% | |
| 5 | 3% | 94% | |
| 6 | 62% | 91% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 29% | |
| 8 | 16% | 19% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 260 | 100% | 252–266 | 251–269 | 250–271 | 247–275 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 224 | 100% | 218–232 | 216–235 | 214–237 | 210–239 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 194 | 100% | 186–201 | 183–203 | 182–205 | 179–209 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 166 | 10% | 159–176 | 157–178 | 156–181 | 153–185 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 166 | 2% | 158–172 | 154–173 | 153–175 | 149–178 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 158 | 0.2% | 152–166 | 151–169 | 149–171 | 146–174 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 160 | 0.1% | 151–166 | 148–167 | 146–169 | 143–172 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 100 | 0% | 94–109 | 93–112 | 92–115 | 89–118 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 101 | 0% | 92–106 | 89–108 | 87–109 | 84–113 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 94 | 0% | 85–100 | 82–102 | 81–103 | 78–107 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 248 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 249 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 250 | 2% | 98% | |
| 251 | 2% | 97% | |
| 252 | 4% | 94% | |
| 253 | 2% | 90% | |
| 254 | 3% | 88% | Last Result |
| 255 | 3% | 85% | |
| 256 | 5% | 82% | |
| 257 | 6% | 77% | |
| 258 | 11% | 71% | |
| 259 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 260 | 9% | 51% | |
| 261 | 14% | 42% | |
| 262 | 9% | 28% | |
| 263 | 5% | 20% | |
| 264 | 2% | 15% | |
| 265 | 2% | 13% | |
| 266 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 267 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 268 | 2% | 8% | |
| 269 | 2% | 6% | |
| 270 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 271 | 2% | 4% | |
| 272 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 274 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 275 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 214 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 215 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 216 | 2% | 96% | |
| 217 | 3% | 94% | |
| 218 | 6% | 91% | |
| 219 | 5% | 85% | |
| 220 | 5% | 80% | |
| 221 | 9% | 76% | |
| 222 | 8% | 66% | |
| 223 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 224 | 3% | 50% | |
| 225 | 5% | 47% | |
| 226 | 8% | 41% | |
| 227 | 6% | 33% | |
| 228 | 4% | 27% | |
| 229 | 3% | 24% | |
| 230 | 6% | 21% | |
| 231 | 3% | 14% | |
| 232 | 2% | 11% | |
| 233 | 2% | 9% | |
| 234 | 2% | 7% | |
| 235 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 236 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 237 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 238 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 239 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 240 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 176 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 183 | 2% | 97% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 185 | 3% | 93% | |
| 186 | 2% | 90% | |
| 187 | 4% | 89% | |
| 188 | 4% | 84% | |
| 189 | 7% | 80% | |
| 190 | 3% | 74% | |
| 191 | 5% | 70% | |
| 192 | 6% | 65% | |
| 193 | 5% | 59% | |
| 194 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 195 | 7% | 45% | |
| 196 | 7% | 38% | |
| 197 | 5% | 32% | |
| 198 | 6% | 26% | |
| 199 | 4% | 20% | |
| 200 | 3% | 16% | |
| 201 | 3% | 13% | |
| 202 | 2% | 10% | |
| 203 | 3% | 8% | |
| 204 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 205 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 206 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 155 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 157 | 3% | 97% | |
| 158 | 2% | 95% | |
| 159 | 5% | 92% | |
| 160 | 6% | 88% | |
| 161 | 5% | 82% | |
| 162 | 7% | 76% | |
| 163 | 5% | 69% | |
| 164 | 5% | 64% | |
| 165 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 166 | 10% | 52% | |
| 167 | 4% | 42% | |
| 168 | 4% | 39% | |
| 169 | 5% | 35% | |
| 170 | 5% | 29% | |
| 171 | 4% | 25% | |
| 172 | 4% | 21% | |
| 173 | 3% | 17% | |
| 174 | 2% | 14% | |
| 175 | 2% | 12% | |
| 176 | 2% | 10% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 178 | 2% | 7% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 181 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 154 | 2% | 97% | |
| 155 | 2% | 95% | |
| 156 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 157 | 2% | 92% | |
| 158 | 3% | 90% | |
| 159 | 4% | 88% | |
| 160 | 4% | 84% | |
| 161 | 5% | 80% | |
| 162 | 3% | 75% | |
| 163 | 6% | 72% | |
| 164 | 5% | 66% | |
| 165 | 8% | 61% | Median |
| 166 | 10% | 53% | |
| 167 | 5% | 42% | |
| 168 | 6% | 37% | |
| 169 | 5% | 31% | Last Result |
| 170 | 6% | 26% | |
| 171 | 6% | 19% | |
| 172 | 6% | 13% | |
| 173 | 2% | 7% | |
| 174 | 2% | 5% | |
| 175 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 176 | 0.6% | 2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 150 | 2% | 97% | |
| 151 | 2% | 95% | |
| 152 | 5% | 93% | |
| 153 | 7% | 89% | |
| 154 | 6% | 82% | |
| 155 | 7% | 76% | |
| 156 | 7% | 69% | Last Result |
| 157 | 6% | 62% | |
| 158 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 159 | 8% | 44% | |
| 160 | 5% | 36% | |
| 161 | 4% | 31% | |
| 162 | 4% | 28% | |
| 163 | 5% | 23% | |
| 164 | 5% | 18% | |
| 165 | 2% | 13% | |
| 166 | 2% | 11% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 168 | 2% | 7% | |
| 169 | 2% | 6% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 147 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 148 | 2% | 96% | |
| 149 | 2% | 94% | |
| 150 | 2% | 93% | |
| 151 | 2% | 91% | |
| 152 | 3% | 89% | |
| 153 | 4% | 86% | |
| 154 | 4% | 82% | |
| 155 | 5% | 78% | |
| 156 | 4% | 73% | |
| 157 | 6% | 69% | |
| 158 | 5% | 63% | |
| 159 | 6% | 57% | Median |
| 160 | 10% | 51% | |
| 161 | 5% | 41% | |
| 162 | 8% | 36% | |
| 163 | 5% | 28% | |
| 164 | 5% | 23% | |
| 165 | 7% | 18% | |
| 166 | 5% | 12% | |
| 167 | 2% | 7% | |
| 168 | 2% | 5% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 98.5% | |
| 92 | 2% | 98% | |
| 93 | 5% | 96% | |
| 94 | 4% | 91% | |
| 95 | 8% | 87% | |
| 96 | 8% | 79% | |
| 97 | 7% | 70% | |
| 98 | 4% | 63% | |
| 99 | 6% | 59% | |
| 100 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 101 | 9% | 46% | |
| 102 | 4% | 38% | |
| 103 | 5% | 34% | |
| 104 | 4% | 28% | |
| 105 | 3% | 24% | |
| 106 | 3% | 21% | |
| 107 | 5% | 18% | |
| 108 | 2% | 13% | |
| 109 | 1.5% | 11% | |
| 110 | 2% | 10% | |
| 111 | 2% | 8% | |
| 112 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 113 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 86 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 87 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 89 | 2% | 96% | |
| 90 | 2% | 94% | |
| 91 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 92 | 2% | 90% | |
| 93 | 6% | 88% | |
| 94 | 3% | 82% | |
| 95 | 4% | 79% | |
| 96 | 4% | 75% | |
| 97 | 5% | 71% | |
| 98 | 6% | 66% | |
| 99 | 6% | 61% | |
| 100 | 4% | 55% | Median |
| 101 | 10% | 50% | |
| 102 | 8% | 40% | |
| 103 | 9% | 32% | |
| 104 | 4% | 22% | |
| 105 | 5% | 18% | |
| 106 | 5% | 13% | |
| 107 | 3% | 9% | |
| 108 | 2% | 6% | |
| 109 | 2% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 82 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 85 | 3% | 92% | |
| 86 | 3% | 89% | |
| 87 | 5% | 86% | |
| 88 | 5% | 81% | |
| 89 | 3% | 76% | |
| 90 | 4% | 73% | |
| 91 | 5% | 69% | |
| 92 | 6% | 65% | |
| 93 | 6% | 59% | |
| 94 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 95 | 11% | 47% | |
| 96 | 8% | 36% | |
| 97 | 7% | 28% | |
| 98 | 3% | 21% | |
| 99 | 6% | 18% | |
| 100 | 4% | 12% | |
| 101 | 3% | 8% | |
| 102 | 2% | 5% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Metroscopia
- Commissioner(s): Henneo
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1588
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.62%