Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 22–26 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 25.7% | 24.1–27.3% | 23.7–27.8% | 23.3–28.2% | 22.5–29.0% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 24.2% | 22.6–25.8% | 22.2–26.3% | 21.8–26.7% | 21.1–27.5% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 22.0% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.1–24.1% | 19.7–24.4% | 19.1–25.2% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 17.3% | 16.0–18.8% | 15.6–19.2% | 15.3–19.6% | 14.7–20.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 99 | 92–110 | 90–112 | 89–115 | 87–119 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 97 | 91–104 | 88–107 | 85–110 | 80–115 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 73 | 69–81 | 68–84 | 67–86 | 63–91 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 54 | 44–60 | 42–62 | 40–64 | 38–68 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 2% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 4% | 92% | |
| 93 | 3% | 88% | |
| 94 | 7% | 86% | |
| 95 | 9% | 79% | |
| 96 | 6% | 70% | |
| 97 | 10% | 64% | |
| 98 | 4% | 55% | |
| 99 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 100 | 5% | 46% | |
| 101 | 5% | 41% | |
| 102 | 4% | 36% | |
| 103 | 4% | 32% | |
| 104 | 3% | 28% | |
| 105 | 3% | 25% | |
| 106 | 2% | 21% | |
| 107 | 3% | 19% | |
| 108 | 3% | 16% | |
| 109 | 2% | 13% | |
| 110 | 2% | 11% | |
| 111 | 2% | 9% | |
| 112 | 2% | 6% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 90 | 2% | 93% | |
| 91 | 3% | 91% | |
| 92 | 4% | 88% | |
| 93 | 6% | 84% | |
| 94 | 12% | 78% | |
| 95 | 7% | 67% | |
| 96 | 9% | 60% | |
| 97 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 98 | 3% | 42% | |
| 99 | 5% | 39% | |
| 100 | 9% | 34% | |
| 101 | 6% | 25% | |
| 102 | 5% | 19% | |
| 103 | 4% | 14% | |
| 104 | 2% | 11% | |
| 105 | 2% | 9% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 2% | 96% | |
| 69 | 5% | 94% | |
| 70 | 7% | 90% | |
| 71 | 4% | 83% | |
| 72 | 13% | 79% | |
| 73 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 49% | |
| 75 | 9% | 37% | |
| 76 | 4% | 28% | |
| 77 | 3% | 24% | |
| 78 | 3% | 21% | |
| 79 | 4% | 18% | |
| 80 | 3% | 14% | |
| 81 | 3% | 11% | |
| 82 | 2% | 9% | |
| 83 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 84 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 42 | 2% | 96% | |
| 43 | 2% | 94% | |
| 44 | 2% | 92% | |
| 45 | 2% | 90% | |
| 46 | 3% | 88% | |
| 47 | 4% | 85% | |
| 48 | 5% | 81% | |
| 49 | 4% | 76% | |
| 50 | 7% | 73% | |
| 51 | 2% | 65% | |
| 52 | 3% | 63% | |
| 53 | 4% | 60% | |
| 54 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 55 | 6% | 50% | |
| 56 | 5% | 43% | |
| 57 | 10% | 38% | |
| 58 | 4% | 28% | |
| 59 | 7% | 24% | |
| 60 | 8% | 17% | |
| 61 | 3% | 9% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 63 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 271 | 100% | 265–280 | 263–282 | 260–284 | 257–286 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 228 | 100% | 221–234 | 218–237 | 214–240 | 209–245 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 196 | 99.9% | 189–206 | 187–209 | 185–211 | 180–214 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 173 | 41% | 165–185 | 163–188 | 162–190 | 159–194 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 171 | 22% | 165–179 | 162–183 | 159–186 | 154–189 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 154 | 0% | 145–160 | 142–163 | 139–165 | 135–170 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 99 | 0% | 92–110 | 90–112 | 89–115 | 87–119 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 97 | 0% | 91–104 | 88–107 | 85–110 | 80–115 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 259 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 260 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 261 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 262 | 2% | 97% | |
| 263 | 2% | 95% | |
| 264 | 3% | 94% | |
| 265 | 8% | 90% | |
| 266 | 6% | 82% | |
| 267 | 5% | 76% | |
| 268 | 9% | 71% | |
| 269 | 5% | 62% | Median |
| 270 | 6% | 57% | |
| 271 | 6% | 50% | |
| 272 | 4% | 44% | |
| 273 | 3% | 40% | |
| 274 | 2% | 37% | |
| 275 | 8% | 35% | |
| 276 | 4% | 27% | |
| 277 | 5% | 23% | |
| 278 | 4% | 18% | |
| 279 | 3% | 14% | |
| 280 | 3% | 11% | |
| 281 | 2% | 8% | |
| 282 | 2% | 6% | |
| 283 | 2% | 4% | |
| 284 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 285 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 286 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 214 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 215 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 216 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 217 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 218 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 219 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 220 | 2% | 93% | |
| 221 | 2% | 91% | |
| 222 | 3% | 88% | |
| 223 | 5% | 85% | |
| 224 | 6% | 80% | |
| 225 | 9% | 74% | |
| 226 | 5% | 65% | Median |
| 227 | 3% | 60% | |
| 228 | 9% | 57% | |
| 229 | 9% | 48% | |
| 230 | 7% | 39% | |
| 231 | 12% | 32% | |
| 232 | 5% | 21% | |
| 233 | 4% | 16% | |
| 234 | 3% | 12% | |
| 235 | 2% | 9% | |
| 236 | 2% | 7% | |
| 237 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 238 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 239 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 240 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 241 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 185 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 186 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 187 | 2% | 95% | |
| 188 | 2% | 94% | |
| 189 | 3% | 92% | |
| 190 | 3% | 89% | |
| 191 | 4% | 86% | |
| 192 | 5% | 81% | |
| 193 | 8% | 76% | |
| 194 | 6% | 68% | |
| 195 | 6% | 63% | |
| 196 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 197 | 6% | 48% | |
| 198 | 6% | 43% | |
| 199 | 3% | 36% | |
| 200 | 4% | 33% | |
| 201 | 3% | 29% | |
| 202 | 5% | 26% | |
| 203 | 3% | 21% | |
| 204 | 3% | 18% | |
| 205 | 3% | 14% | |
| 206 | 2% | 11% | |
| 207 | 2% | 9% | |
| 208 | 2% | 7% | |
| 209 | 2% | 5% | |
| 210 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 211 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 213 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 215 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 162 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 163 | 2% | 97% | |
| 164 | 3% | 95% | |
| 165 | 3% | 92% | |
| 166 | 4% | 89% | |
| 167 | 4% | 85% | |
| 168 | 6% | 80% | |
| 169 | 6% | 75% | |
| 170 | 5% | 69% | |
| 171 | 4% | 64% | |
| 172 | 6% | 60% | Median |
| 173 | 4% | 54% | |
| 174 | 5% | 50% | |
| 175 | 3% | 44% | |
| 176 | 3% | 41% | Majority |
| 177 | 4% | 38% | |
| 178 | 4% | 33% | |
| 179 | 3% | 29% | |
| 180 | 4% | 26% | |
| 181 | 3% | 22% | |
| 182 | 3% | 19% | |
| 183 | 2% | 16% | |
| 184 | 2% | 14% | |
| 185 | 3% | 11% | |
| 186 | 2% | 9% | |
| 187 | 2% | 7% | |
| 188 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 189 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 190 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 160 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 163 | 2% | 94% | |
| 164 | 2% | 92% | |
| 165 | 3% | 90% | |
| 166 | 5% | 88% | |
| 167 | 4% | 83% | |
| 168 | 10% | 78% | |
| 169 | 7% | 68% | Last Result |
| 170 | 9% | 61% | Median |
| 171 | 5% | 52% | |
| 172 | 5% | 47% | |
| 173 | 7% | 42% | |
| 174 | 5% | 34% | |
| 175 | 7% | 29% | |
| 176 | 5% | 22% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 17% | |
| 178 | 2% | 14% | |
| 179 | 2% | 11% | |
| 180 | 2% | 10% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 187 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 142 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 144 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 145 | 2% | 92% | |
| 146 | 2% | 90% | |
| 147 | 3% | 88% | |
| 148 | 3% | 85% | |
| 149 | 5% | 82% | |
| 150 | 7% | 77% | |
| 151 | 5% | 70% | |
| 152 | 8% | 65% | |
| 153 | 5% | 58% | Median |
| 154 | 5% | 52% | |
| 155 | 9% | 47% | |
| 156 | 7% | 38% | Last Result |
| 157 | 10% | 31% | |
| 158 | 5% | 21% | |
| 159 | 5% | 17% | |
| 160 | 3% | 12% | |
| 161 | 2% | 9% | |
| 162 | 2% | 8% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 89 | 2% | 98% | |
| 90 | 2% | 97% | |
| 91 | 2% | 95% | |
| 92 | 4% | 92% | |
| 93 | 3% | 88% | |
| 94 | 7% | 86% | |
| 95 | 9% | 79% | |
| 96 | 6% | 70% | |
| 97 | 10% | 64% | |
| 98 | 4% | 55% | |
| 99 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 100 | 5% | 46% | |
| 101 | 5% | 41% | |
| 102 | 4% | 36% | |
| 103 | 4% | 32% | |
| 104 | 3% | 28% | |
| 105 | 3% | 25% | |
| 106 | 2% | 21% | |
| 107 | 3% | 19% | |
| 108 | 3% | 16% | |
| 109 | 2% | 13% | |
| 110 | 2% | 11% | |
| 111 | 2% | 9% | |
| 112 | 2% | 6% | |
| 113 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 114 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 120 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 89 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 90 | 2% | 93% | |
| 91 | 3% | 91% | |
| 92 | 4% | 88% | |
| 93 | 6% | 84% | |
| 94 | 12% | 78% | |
| 95 | 7% | 67% | |
| 96 | 9% | 60% | |
| 97 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 98 | 3% | 42% | |
| 99 | 5% | 39% | |
| 100 | 9% | 34% | |
| 101 | 6% | 25% | |
| 102 | 5% | 19% | |
| 103 | 4% | 14% | |
| 104 | 2% | 11% | |
| 105 | 2% | 9% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 108 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Invymark
- Commissioner(s): laSexta
- Fieldwork period: 22–26 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.52%