Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 5–9 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 25.4% 23.9–27.1% 23.4–27.6% 23.0–28.0% 22.3–28.8%
Partido Popular 33.0% 24.2% 22.6–25.8% 22.2–26.3% 21.8–26.7% 21.1–27.5%
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 22.7% 21.2–24.3% 20.7–24.7% 20.4–25.1% 19.7–25.9%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–20.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 98 91–108 89–111 88–113 86–118
Partido Popular 137 96 91–104 88–108 85–111 80–115
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 76 72–85 70–88 69–90 66–94
Unidos Podemos 71 51 42–60 40–61 39–63 37–67

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
86 0.5% 99.8%  
87 0.9% 99.3%  
88 2% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 94%  
91 3% 92%  
92 5% 89%  
93 3% 84%  
94 7% 81%  
95 8% 74%  
96 6% 66%  
97 7% 60%  
98 4% 53% Median
99 4% 49%  
100 6% 45%  
101 5% 39%  
102 5% 34%  
103 3% 29%  
104 5% 26%  
105 3% 21%  
106 3% 19%  
107 2% 15%  
108 3% 13%  
109 3% 10%  
110 1.4% 7%  
111 1.3% 6%  
112 1.2% 4%  
113 0.8% 3%  
114 0.7% 2%  
115 0.4% 2%  
116 0.5% 1.2%  
117 0.2% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.6%  
81 0.2% 99.3%  
82 0.4% 99.1%  
83 0.5% 98.7%  
84 0.4% 98%  
85 0.5% 98%  
86 0.8% 97%  
87 1.1% 96%  
88 0.9% 95%  
89 1.3% 94%  
90 2% 93%  
91 2% 92%  
92 5% 89%  
93 6% 84%  
94 13% 78%  
95 7% 64%  
96 10% 57% Median
97 7% 47%  
98 4% 40%  
99 4% 36%  
100 6% 32%  
101 5% 26%  
102 5% 21%  
103 5% 15%  
104 2% 11%  
105 1.3% 9%  
106 1.1% 7%  
107 1.1% 6%  
108 1.1% 5%  
109 1.0% 4%  
110 0.3% 3%  
111 0.7% 3%  
112 0.9% 2%  
113 0.4% 1.3%  
114 0.4% 0.9%  
115 0.1% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 0.2% 99.6%  
67 0.3% 99.4%  
68 1.1% 99.1%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 3% 93%  
72 9% 90%  
73 13% 81%  
74 8% 68%  
75 8% 60%  
76 7% 52% Median
77 7% 46%  
78 6% 39%  
79 5% 33%  
80 4% 28%  
81 3% 24%  
82 5% 21%  
83 3% 16%  
84 2% 13%  
85 2% 11%  
86 1.3% 9%  
87 2% 8%  
88 0.7% 6%  
89 1.0% 5%  
90 1.4% 4%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.6%  
38 0.8% 99.5%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 3% 97%  
41 3% 94%  
42 4% 92%  
43 2% 88%  
44 3% 86%  
45 2% 83%  
46 4% 81%  
47 4% 77%  
48 6% 73%  
49 7% 67%  
50 8% 60%  
51 3% 53% Median
52 3% 49%  
53 3% 46%  
54 4% 43%  
55 5% 39%  
56 6% 34%  
57 7% 28%  
58 4% 21%  
59 6% 17%  
60 5% 11%  
61 2% 6%  
62 0.8% 3%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.4% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.2%  
66 0.2% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1% Last Result
72 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 254 274 100% 265–282 264–284 262–285 258–286
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos 188 229 100% 221–234 217–237 213–240 210–245
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 222 196 99.8% 188–205 186–207 183–210 179–213
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 117 178 56% 166–185 165–190 163–192 160–196
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 169 173 38% 167–183 165–186 162–189 157–193
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 152 0% 142–158 138–160 135–163 131–168
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 98 0% 91–108 89–111 88–113 86–118
Partido Popular 137 96 0% 91–104 88–108 85–111 80–115

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100% Last Result
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.3% 99.7%  
259 0.2% 99.5%  
260 0.5% 99.3%  
261 0.4% 98.8%  
262 1.1% 98%  
263 1.1% 97%  
264 2% 96%  
265 5% 94%  
266 6% 89%  
267 4% 83%  
268 7% 79%  
269 6% 71%  
270 5% 65% Median
271 4% 61%  
272 3% 57%  
273 3% 54%  
274 3% 51%  
275 8% 47%  
276 7% 40%  
277 6% 33%  
278 5% 26%  
279 4% 22%  
280 3% 18%  
281 3% 15%  
282 3% 12%  
283 2% 9%  
284 3% 7%  
285 2% 4%  
286 2% 2%  
287 0.4% 0.5%  
288 0.1% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.7%  
209 0.1% 99.6%  
210 0.2% 99.5%  
211 0.4% 99.3%  
212 0.4% 99.0%  
213 1.2% 98.6%  
214 0.5% 97%  
215 0.5% 97%  
216 1.2% 96%  
217 1.1% 95%  
218 1.2% 94%  
219 1.0% 93%  
220 1.4% 92%  
221 3% 90%  
222 5% 88%  
223 4% 83%  
224 5% 78%  
225 7% 73% Median
226 3% 66%  
227 4% 63%  
228 7% 59%  
229 10% 52%  
230 7% 43%  
231 13% 35%  
232 7% 22%  
233 6% 16%  
234 2% 10%  
235 1.2% 8%  
236 1.2% 7%  
237 0.9% 5%  
238 1.3% 5%  
239 0.6% 3%  
240 0.6% 3%  
241 0.4% 2%  
242 0.5% 2%  
243 0.4% 1.3%  
244 0.2% 0.8%  
245 0.3% 0.6%  
246 0.2% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.8% Majority
177 0.1% 99.7%  
178 0.1% 99.6%  
179 0.2% 99.6%  
180 0.3% 99.3%  
181 0.4% 99.0%  
182 0.6% 98.6%  
183 0.7% 98%  
184 0.5% 97%  
185 1.0% 97%  
186 1.2% 96%  
187 2% 95%  
188 3% 92%  
189 4% 90%  
190 3% 85%  
191 6% 82%  
192 4% 76%  
193 9% 73%  
194 7% 64% Median
195 6% 56%  
196 6% 50%  
197 5% 45%  
198 5% 40%  
199 5% 35%  
200 4% 30%  
201 3% 26%  
202 3% 22%  
203 4% 19%  
204 5% 16%  
205 3% 11%  
206 2% 8%  
207 2% 6%  
208 1.1% 4%  
209 0.7% 3%  
210 0.7% 3%  
211 0.6% 2%  
212 0.4% 1.3%  
213 0.4% 0.9%  
214 0.2% 0.5%  
215 0.1% 0.3%  
216 0.1% 0.1%  
217 0.1% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.3% 99.7%  
161 0.5% 99.4%  
162 0.8% 98.9%  
163 1.2% 98%  
164 2% 97%  
165 2% 95%  
166 4% 93%  
167 6% 90%  
168 6% 83%  
169 7% 78%  
170 4% 70%  
171 3% 67%  
172 4% 63%  
173 2% 60%  
174 0.6% 58% Median
175 1.1% 57%  
176 0.9% 56% Majority
177 2% 55%  
178 4% 53%  
179 6% 49%  
180 7% 43%  
181 9% 36%  
182 9% 27%  
183 5% 19%  
184 2% 13%  
185 3% 11%  
186 1.0% 9%  
187 0.8% 8%  
188 0.5% 7%  
189 1.0% 6%  
190 1.2% 5%  
191 1.1% 4%  
192 1.1% 3%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.3% 1.3%  
195 0.4% 1.0%  
196 0.3% 0.6%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0.1% 100%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.1% 99.7%  
157 0.1% 99.6%  
158 0.2% 99.4%  
159 0.3% 99.2%  
160 0.6% 99.0%  
161 0.6% 98%  
162 0.7% 98%  
163 1.0% 97%  
164 1.0% 96%  
165 2% 95%  
166 3% 93%  
167 4% 91%  
168 5% 86%  
169 4% 81% Last Result
170 5% 76%  
171 7% 71%  
172 8% 64% Median
173 9% 57%  
174 5% 48%  
175 4% 43%  
176 5% 38% Majority
177 5% 33%  
178 6% 28%  
179 4% 22%  
180 3% 19%  
181 2% 16%  
182 3% 13%  
183 2% 11%  
184 1.0% 8%  
185 1.1% 7%  
186 2% 6%  
187 1.2% 5%  
188 0.8% 4%  
189 0.5% 3%  
190 0.6% 2%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.2%  
193 0.3% 0.8%  
194 0.1% 0.5%  
195 0.2% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.6%  
132 0.4% 99.4%  
133 0.5% 99.1%  
134 0.7% 98.5%  
135 0.5% 98%  
136 0.5% 97%  
137 0.9% 97%  
138 1.1% 96%  
139 2% 95%  
140 1.1% 93%  
141 1.0% 92%  
142 3% 91%  
143 3% 88%  
144 3% 85%  
145 3% 83%  
146 4% 80%  
147 5% 76%  
148 5% 71%  
149 5% 66% Median
150 4% 61%  
151 5% 57%  
152 9% 52%  
153 8% 43%  
154 6% 35%  
155 5% 28%  
156 4% 23% Last Result
157 6% 19%  
158 4% 13%  
159 3% 9%  
160 2% 6%  
161 1.1% 5%  
162 0.9% 4%  
163 0.7% 3%  
164 0.9% 2%  
165 0.4% 1.3%  
166 0.2% 0.9%  
167 0.2% 0.7%  
168 0.1% 0.5%  
169 0.1% 0.4%  
170 0.1% 0.3%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
86 0.5% 99.8%  
87 0.9% 99.3%  
88 2% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 94%  
91 3% 92%  
92 5% 89%  
93 3% 84%  
94 7% 81%  
95 8% 74%  
96 6% 66%  
97 7% 60%  
98 4% 53% Median
99 4% 49%  
100 6% 45%  
101 5% 39%  
102 5% 34%  
103 3% 29%  
104 5% 26%  
105 3% 21%  
106 3% 19%  
107 2% 15%  
108 3% 13%  
109 3% 10%  
110 1.4% 7%  
111 1.3% 6%  
112 1.2% 4%  
113 0.8% 3%  
114 0.7% 2%  
115 0.4% 2%  
116 0.5% 1.2%  
117 0.2% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.6%  
81 0.2% 99.3%  
82 0.4% 99.1%  
83 0.5% 98.7%  
84 0.4% 98%  
85 0.5% 98%  
86 0.8% 97%  
87 1.1% 96%  
88 0.9% 95%  
89 1.3% 94%  
90 2% 93%  
91 2% 92%  
92 5% 89%  
93 6% 84%  
94 13% 78%  
95 7% 64%  
96 10% 57% Median
97 7% 47%  
98 4% 40%  
99 4% 36%  
100 6% 32%  
101 5% 26%  
102 5% 21%  
103 5% 15%  
104 2% 11%  
105 1.3% 9%  
106 1.1% 7%  
107 1.1% 6%  
108 1.1% 5%  
109 1.0% 4%  
110 0.3% 3%  
111 0.7% 3%  
112 0.9% 2%  
113 0.4% 1.3%  
114 0.4% 0.9%  
115 0.1% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations