Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 3–4 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 21.4% 20.1–22.8% 19.7–23.2% 19.4–23.5% 18.8–24.2%
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 19.3% 18.0–20.6% 17.7–21.0% 17.4–21.3% 16.8–22.0%
Partido Popular 33.0% 19.1% 17.8–20.4% 17.5–20.8% 17.2–21.1% 16.6–21.8%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 17.6% 16.4–18.9% 16.0–19.3% 15.7–19.6% 15.2–20.2%
Vox 0.2% 10.4% 9.4–11.5% 9.2–11.8% 9.0–12.0% 8.5–12.6%
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 2.7% 3.1% 2.6–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 2.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.1–2.3% 0.9–2.6%
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal 1.2% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.1–2.3% 0.9–2.6%
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.2% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.3%
Euskal Herria Bildu 0.8% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 82 73–87 70–87 68–89 67–89
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 81 77–89 75–89 72–89 65–90
Partido Popular 137 76 65–82 65–85 65–87 65–91
Unidos Podemos 71 59 48–68 48–68 48–68 48–72
Vox 0 26 21–28 20–29 19–32 18–41
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí 9 13 10–14 10–15 10–16 9–17
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 8 6 4–8 4–8 4–8 4–10
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 5 6 6–7 5–8 5–10 3–10
Euskal Herria Bildu 2 3 2–6 2–6 1–6 0–7

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.6%  
68 1.2% 98%  
69 0.7% 97%  
70 3% 96%  
71 1.3% 93%  
72 1.0% 92%  
73 2% 91%  
74 1.1% 89%  
75 8% 88%  
76 1.4% 80%  
77 0.7% 79%  
78 9% 78%  
79 0.5% 69%  
80 10% 68%  
81 3% 58%  
82 16% 55% Median
83 1.1% 39%  
84 0.2% 38%  
85 10% 38%  
86 0.2% 27%  
87 25% 27%  
88 0% 3%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.6%  
64 0% 99.6%  
65 0.2% 99.6%  
66 0% 99.4%  
67 0.2% 99.4%  
68 0.5% 99.2%  
69 0% 98.7%  
70 0.1% 98.7%  
71 0.1% 98.6%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 0.2% 97%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 0.8% 91%  
77 10% 90%  
78 10% 80%  
79 19% 71%  
80 2% 52%  
81 10% 50% Median
82 1.1% 40%  
83 0.2% 39%  
84 2% 39%  
85 21% 36% Last Result
86 1.5% 15%  
87 0.9% 14%  
88 0.3% 13%  
89 12% 13%  
90 0.2% 0.7%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 11% 99.6%  
66 10% 89%  
67 0.2% 79%  
68 7% 78%  
69 0% 71%  
70 0.5% 71%  
71 0.1% 71%  
72 4% 71%  
73 4% 66%  
74 4% 63%  
75 1.4% 59%  
76 14% 58% Median
77 26% 44%  
78 2% 18%  
79 0.2% 16%  
80 0.4% 16%  
81 0.9% 15%  
82 9% 14%  
83 0.3% 6%  
84 0.4% 5%  
85 2% 5%  
86 0.1% 3%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 0.4% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 14% 99.5%  
49 0.8% 86%  
50 0.3% 85%  
51 2% 85%  
52 16% 83%  
53 0.2% 67%  
54 0.6% 67%  
55 8% 66%  
56 2% 58%  
57 0.6% 56%  
58 0.1% 56%  
59 10% 56% Median
60 5% 46%  
61 3% 41%  
62 0.4% 38%  
63 1.3% 37%  
64 2% 36%  
65 7% 34%  
66 10% 27%  
67 4% 17%  
68 12% 13%  
69 0.1% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
72 0.5% 0.6%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.6%  
18 0.6% 99.6%  
19 2% 99.0%  
20 7% 97%  
21 0.6% 90%  
22 10% 90%  
23 14% 79%  
24 0.6% 65%  
25 9% 65%  
26 15% 55% Median
27 24% 41%  
28 10% 17%  
29 2% 7%  
30 2% 5%  
31 0.1% 3%  
32 1.1% 3%  
33 0.1% 2%  
34 0.1% 2%  
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0% 0.7%  
37 0% 0.7%  
38 0% 0.7%  
39 0% 0.6%  
40 0% 0.6%  
41 0.6% 0.6%  
42 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 2% 99.6% Last Result
10 11% 98%  
11 1.4% 87%  
12 27% 86%  
13 23% 59% Median
14 30% 36%  
15 3% 6%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.1% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 20% 99.7%  
5 2% 80%  
6 44% 78% Median
7 21% 34%  
8 13% 14% Last Result
9 0.1% 1.3%  
10 0.8% 1.1%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.3% 100%  
4 1.0% 98.7%  
5 6% 98% Last Result
6 56% 92% Median
7 29% 36%  
8 2% 6%  
9 1.5% 5%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Euskal Herria Bildu

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 4% 99.4%  
2 44% 96% Last Result
3 15% 52% Median
4 8% 37%  
5 17% 29%  
6 11% 12%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 254 238 100% 226–246 226–246 222–247 219–247
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 188 218 100% 214–232 211–235 209–235 198–235
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox 169 180 77% 173–190 172–190 172–190 169–194
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 180 169 6% 159–175 159–177 159–177 155–180
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 222 155 0.1% 143–171 143–171 143–174 142–174
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español 117 164 0.1% 153–170 151–170 148–171 141–173
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 173 159 0% 148–167 148–167 148–168 142–171
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu 167 156 0% 149–162 149–163 147–164 139–169
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular 169 155 0.1% 145–164 145–164 145–164 141–170
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu 163 151 0% 142–158 142–158 141–159 135–160
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 140 0% 131–149 131–150 131–150 122–152
Partido Popular – Vox 137 102 0% 89–106 89–110 89–110 89–118
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 81 0% 77–89 75–89 72–89 65–90
Partido Popular 137 76 0% 65–82 65–85 65–87 65–91

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.7% 99.8%  
220 0.6% 99.1%  
221 0.4% 98.5%  
222 1.1% 98%  
223 0.4% 97%  
224 0.4% 97%  
225 0.7% 96%  
226 9% 96%  
227 0.1% 87%  
228 1.2% 87%  
229 0.2% 86%  
230 10% 85%  
231 2% 75%  
232 4% 73%  
233 13% 69%  
234 2% 56%  
235 0.8% 54%  
236 3% 53%  
237 0.3% 50%  
238 7% 50%  
239 0.6% 43% Median
240 0.4% 43%  
241 0.1% 42%  
242 0.9% 42%  
243 28% 41%  
244 2% 13%  
245 0.3% 10%  
246 7% 10%  
247 3% 3%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.2% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0.1% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0.4% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.5%  
200 0% 99.4%  
201 0% 99.4%  
202 0.6% 99.4%  
203 0.2% 98.8%  
204 0% 98.6%  
205 0.1% 98.6%  
206 0.3% 98.5%  
207 0.1% 98%  
208 0.4% 98%  
209 0.5% 98%  
210 1.1% 97%  
211 3% 96%  
212 0.3% 93%  
213 2% 93%  
214 2% 91%  
215 23% 89%  
216 2% 66%  
217 0.7% 64%  
218 15% 64%  
219 7% 49%  
220 3% 41%  
221 3% 39%  
222 0.4% 36% Median
223 0.1% 35%  
224 3% 35%  
225 0.1% 32%  
226 0.1% 32%  
227 12% 32%  
228 0% 20%  
229 0.2% 20%  
230 0% 20%  
231 3% 20%  
232 10% 17%  
233 0% 7%  
234 0% 7%  
235 6% 7%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0.2% 0.2%  
240 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0.2% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.7%  
169 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
170 0.3% 99.0%  
171 0.3% 98.7%  
172 4% 98%  
173 9% 95%  
174 0.6% 85%  
175 8% 85%  
176 11% 77% Majority
177 12% 65%  
178 1.1% 53%  
179 0.9% 52%  
180 2% 51%  
181 0.2% 49%  
182 14% 49%  
183 1.2% 35%  
184 0.1% 34% Median
185 15% 34%  
186 0.7% 18%  
187 0.3% 18%  
188 0.3% 17%  
189 0.1% 17%  
190 15% 17%  
191 0.1% 2%  
192 0.7% 2%  
193 0.2% 1.1%  
194 0.5% 0.8%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0.1% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.7% 99.7%  
156 0% 98.9%  
157 0.7% 98.9%  
158 0.1% 98%  
159 15% 98%  
160 0.3% 83%  
161 0.3% 83%  
162 0.2% 82%  
163 0.7% 82%  
164 15% 82%  
165 0.4% 66%  
166 0.9% 66%  
167 14% 65%  
168 0.2% 51% Median
169 2% 51%  
170 1.2% 49%  
171 0.9% 47%  
172 12% 46%  
173 13% 35%  
174 7% 22%  
175 9% 15%  
176 0.8% 6% Majority
177 4% 5%  
178 0.3% 2%  
179 0.2% 1.2%  
180 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.2% 0.3%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0% 99.5%  
142 0.7% 99.5%  
143 10% 98.9%  
144 0% 89%  
145 0.1% 89%  
146 8% 88%  
147 4% 80%  
148 0.1% 76%  
149 0.8% 76%  
150 0.2% 75%  
151 1.4% 75%  
152 3% 74%  
153 8% 70%  
154 4% 63%  
155 10% 59%  
156 15% 49%  
157 0.8% 34% Median
158 2% 33%  
159 1.1% 31%  
160 0.1% 30%  
161 14% 30%  
162 0.2% 16%  
163 2% 16%  
164 1.4% 14%  
165 0.3% 12%  
166 0.2% 12%  
167 0.2% 12%  
168 0.5% 12%  
169 0.4% 11%  
170 0.3% 11%  
171 7% 10%  
172 0.3% 3%  
173 0.1% 3%  
174 3% 3%  
175 0.1% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1% Majority
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.3% 99.7%  
142 0.1% 99.3%  
143 0.1% 99.2%  
144 0.5% 99.1%  
145 0.1% 98.6%  
146 0.6% 98%  
147 0.4% 98%  
148 1.2% 98%  
149 0.6% 96%  
150 0.2% 96%  
151 1.4% 96%  
152 3% 94%  
153 1.4% 91%  
154 0.7% 90%  
155 0.6% 89%  
156 9% 89%  
157 1.2% 79%  
158 0.8% 78%  
159 2% 77%  
160 8% 75%  
161 9% 67%  
162 0.1% 58%  
163 0.2% 58% Median
164 17% 58%  
165 0.8% 41%  
166 14% 40%  
167 14% 26%  
168 0.5% 12%  
169 0% 11%  
170 7% 11%  
171 3% 5%  
172 0% 2%  
173 2% 2%  
174 0% 0.3%  
175 0.2% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.1% Majority
177 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.4% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.4%  
144 0.1% 99.4%  
145 0.5% 99.3%  
146 0.2% 98.8%  
147 0.2% 98.6%  
148 14% 98%  
149 0.5% 84%  
150 0.9% 84%  
151 0.1% 83%  
152 0.9% 83%  
153 0.6% 82%  
154 14% 81%  
155 12% 68%  
156 0.1% 56%  
157 0.1% 56%  
158 5% 55%  
159 0.2% 50% Median
160 1.2% 50%  
161 6% 49%  
162 1.0% 43%  
163 7% 42%  
164 2% 34%  
165 11% 33%  
166 8% 22%  
167 9% 13%  
168 3% 4%  
169 0% 1.3%  
170 0.4% 1.2%  
171 0.5% 0.9%  
172 0% 0.3%  
173 0% 0.3% Last Result
174 0.2% 0.2%  
175 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.5% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.4%  
141 0.2% 99.4%  
142 0.5% 99.2%  
143 0.2% 98.7%  
144 0% 98%  
145 0.1% 98%  
146 0.5% 98%  
147 0.6% 98%  
148 0.4% 97%  
149 15% 97%  
150 13% 82%  
151 0.9% 68%  
152 0.1% 68%  
153 2% 67%  
154 0.8% 65%  
155 14% 64%  
156 5% 50% Median
157 0.3% 45%  
158 0.2% 45%  
159 9% 45%  
160 2% 36%  
161 19% 34%  
162 8% 15%  
163 4% 7%  
164 1.3% 4%  
165 0.7% 2%  
166 0.3% 2%  
167 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
168 0.2% 1.0%  
169 0.6% 0.8%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0.6% 99.8%  
142 1.1% 99.2%  
143 0.2% 98%  
144 0.1% 98%  
145 10% 98%  
146 0.2% 87%  
147 3% 87%  
148 0.2% 84%  
149 3% 84%  
150 0.1% 81%  
151 0.8% 81%  
152 0.1% 80%  
153 18% 80%  
154 3% 62%  
155 12% 59%  
156 0.4% 47%  
157 11% 47%  
158 15% 36% Median
159 0.3% 21%  
160 2% 21%  
161 0.1% 19%  
162 0.1% 18%  
163 2% 18%  
164 15% 16%  
165 0.5% 2%  
166 0.2% 1.4%  
167 0.2% 1.2%  
168 0% 1.0%  
169 0% 1.0% Last Result
170 0.7% 0.9%  
171 0% 0.3%  
172 0.1% 0.3%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1% Majority
177 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0.7% 99.8%  
136 0.5% 99.1%  
137 0.3% 98.6%  
138 0.2% 98%  
139 0.2% 98%  
140 0.2% 98%  
141 0.3% 98%  
142 14% 97%  
143 14% 83%  
144 2% 69%  
145 0.2% 66%  
146 0.1% 66%  
147 0.6% 66%  
148 0.1% 65%  
149 13% 65% Median
150 0.8% 53%  
151 8% 52%  
152 1.3% 44%  
153 19% 43%  
154 3% 24%  
155 8% 22%  
156 0.8% 13%  
157 0.1% 12%  
158 10% 12%  
159 0.3% 3%  
160 2% 2%  
161 0.2% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1% Last Result
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.6% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.3%  
124 0.1% 99.3%  
125 0% 99.2%  
126 0% 99.2%  
127 0.5% 99.1%  
128 0.7% 98.6%  
129 0.1% 98%  
130 0.2% 98%  
131 14% 98%  
132 0.7% 84%  
133 14% 83%  
134 0.8% 69%  
135 2% 68%  
136 0.3% 66%  
137 10% 66%  
138 0.1% 55%  
139 2% 55%  
140 4% 53% Median
141 2% 50%  
142 4% 48%  
143 1.2% 43%  
144 8% 42%  
145 11% 34%  
146 3% 24%  
147 9% 21%  
148 0.2% 12%  
149 4% 12%  
150 7% 8%  
151 0.8% 1.4%  
152 0.5% 0.7%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Popular – Vox

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.2% 100%  
84 0% 99.8%  
85 0% 99.8%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 0% 99.8%  
88 0% 99.7%  
89 10% 99.7%  
90 9% 90%  
91 0% 81%  
92 0.2% 81%  
93 9% 80%  
94 0.2% 71%  
95 0.1% 71%  
96 5% 71%  
97 4% 66%  
98 0.2% 62%  
99 1.0% 62%  
100 0.3% 61%  
101 2% 60%  
102 9% 59% Median
103 29% 50%  
104 10% 21%  
105 0.3% 11%  
106 0.5% 10%  
107 0.2% 10%  
108 1.3% 10%  
109 2% 8%  
110 4% 6%  
111 0.1% 2%  
112 0.1% 2%  
113 0.2% 2%  
114 0.1% 2%  
115 0.3% 2%  
116 0.3% 1.2%  
117 0.2% 0.9%  
118 0.6% 0.7%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.6%  
64 0% 99.6%  
65 0.2% 99.6%  
66 0% 99.4%  
67 0.2% 99.4%  
68 0.5% 99.2%  
69 0% 98.7%  
70 0.1% 98.7%  
71 0.1% 98.6%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 0.2% 97%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 0.8% 91%  
77 10% 90%  
78 10% 80%  
79 19% 71%  
80 2% 52%  
81 10% 50% Median
82 1.1% 40%  
83 0.2% 39%  
84 2% 39%  
85 21% 36% Last Result
86 1.5% 15%  
87 0.9% 14%  
88 0.3% 13%  
89 12% 13%  
90 0.2% 0.7%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 11% 99.6%  
66 10% 89%  
67 0.2% 79%  
68 7% 78%  
69 0% 71%  
70 0.5% 71%  
71 0.1% 71%  
72 4% 71%  
73 4% 66%  
74 4% 63%  
75 1.4% 59%  
76 14% 58% Median
77 26% 44%  
78 2% 18%  
79 0.2% 16%  
80 0.4% 16%  
81 0.9% 15%  
82 9% 14%  
83 0.3% 6%  
84 0.4% 5%  
85 2% 5%  
86 0.1% 3%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 0.4% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations