Opinion Poll by Invymark for laSexta, 3–7 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 22.6% 23.2% 21.7–24.8% 21.2–25.2% 20.9–25.7% 20.1–26.4%
Partido Popular 33.0% 22.9% 21.4–24.5% 21.0–25.0% 20.6–25.4% 19.9–26.2%
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 13.1% 22.9% 21.4–24.5% 21.0–25.0% 20.6–25.4% 19.9–26.2%
Unidos Podemos 21.2% 14.8% 13.6–16.2% 13.2–16.6% 12.9–17.0% 12.3–17.6%
Vox 0.2% 7.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.2–8.7% 6.0–9.0% 5.6–9.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 92 85–101 84–104 83–106 80–110
Partido Popular 137 94 87–102 85–106 83–109 77–113
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 32 81 73–91 71–93 70–96 67–100
Unidos Podemos 71 41 34–51 33–53 32–55 30–59
Vox 0 12 9–17 9–18 7–18 6–20

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.6%  
81 0.4% 99.4%  
82 1.2% 99.0%  
83 2% 98%  
84 4% 96%  
85 5% 92% Last Result
86 7% 87%  
87 6% 80%  
88 6% 74%  
89 5% 68%  
90 4% 63%  
91 5% 59%  
92 5% 54% Median
93 5% 49%  
94 4% 44%  
95 4% 40%  
96 5% 35%  
97 5% 30%  
98 5% 25%  
99 5% 20%  
100 3% 15%  
101 3% 12%  
102 2% 9%  
103 2% 7%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.0% 4%  
106 0.8% 3%  
107 0.4% 2%  
108 0.4% 1.4%  
109 0.3% 0.9%  
110 0.2% 0.7%  
111 0.1% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.2% 99.4%  
79 0.3% 99.2%  
80 0.3% 98.9%  
81 0.5% 98.6%  
82 0.5% 98%  
83 0.7% 98%  
84 0.9% 97%  
85 1.5% 96%  
86 3% 94%  
87 3% 91%  
88 4% 88%  
89 6% 84%  
90 6% 79%  
91 5% 72%  
92 6% 67%  
93 8% 61%  
94 9% 53% Median
95 8% 44%  
96 5% 36%  
97 6% 31%  
98 4% 25%  
99 4% 21%  
100 3% 17%  
101 2% 14%  
102 2% 12%  
103 2% 9%  
104 1.0% 8%  
105 1.1% 7%  
106 1.1% 6%  
107 1.1% 4%  
108 0.8% 3%  
109 0.7% 3%  
110 0.3% 2%  
111 0.4% 2%  
112 0.5% 1.2%  
113 0.2% 0.7%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.7% 99.4%  
69 1.0% 98.7%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 3% 95%  
73 4% 92%  
74 4% 88%  
75 4% 84%  
76 4% 80%  
77 5% 76%  
78 5% 72%  
79 5% 67%  
80 6% 62%  
81 7% 56% Median
82 4% 50%  
83 5% 45%  
84 5% 41%  
85 4% 36%  
86 3% 32%  
87 5% 29%  
88 3% 24%  
89 5% 21%  
90 4% 16%  
91 3% 12%  
92 2% 9%  
93 2% 6%  
94 0.9% 5%  
95 1.2% 4%  
96 0.7% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 1.0%  
100 0.3% 0.7%  
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Unidos Podemos

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 0.8% 99.4%  
32 2% 98.6%  
33 3% 97%  
34 4% 93%  
35 9% 89%  
36 6% 80%  
37 3% 74%  
38 3% 71%  
39 5% 68%  
40 10% 62%  
41 7% 52% Median
42 6% 45%  
43 8% 39%  
44 4% 31%  
45 3% 27%  
46 4% 24%  
47 2% 20%  
48 2% 17%  
49 2% 15%  
50 3% 13%  
51 2% 11%  
52 2% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.4% 5%  
55 1.1% 3%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.5% 1.5%  
58 0.4% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.0% 100%  
7 2% 99.0%  
8 2% 97%  
9 10% 95%  
10 13% 85%  
11 9% 72%  
12 16% 63% Median
13 17% 47%  
14 9% 30%  
15 3% 21%  
16 7% 18%  
17 5% 12%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.6% 1.1%  
21 0.2% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular 254 270 100% 260–276 258–278 256–279 252–281
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos 188 217 100% 207–225 203–227 200–229 196–234
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox 169 189 96% 179–199 177–201 174–202 170–204
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular 222 187 95% 178–196 176–198 173–200 168–204
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular 169 176 53% 166–186 164–188 161–190 157–193
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía 117 175 49% 164–185 161–187 159–189 155–193
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos 156 134 0% 124–144 121–147 120–149 117–154
Partido Popular – Vox 137 106 0% 99–116 97–119 95–121 90–126
Partido Popular 137 94 0% 87–102 85–106 83–109 77–113
Partido Socialista Obrero Español 85 92 0% 85–101 84–104 83–106 80–110

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.6%  
253 0.3% 99.5%  
254 0.5% 99.1% Last Result
255 0.8% 98.6%  
256 1.2% 98%  
257 1.5% 97%  
258 2% 95%  
259 2% 93%  
260 2% 91%  
261 3% 89%  
262 3% 86%  
263 3% 83%  
264 3% 80%  
265 4% 76%  
266 4% 72%  
267 5% 68% Median
268 5% 63%  
269 6% 58%  
270 6% 52%  
271 7% 46%  
272 7% 40%  
273 6% 33%  
274 7% 27%  
275 7% 20%  
276 5% 13%  
277 3% 9%  
278 2% 5%  
279 2% 3%  
280 0.8% 2%  
281 0.4% 0.7%  
282 0.2% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100% Last Result
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 100%  
192 0.1% 100%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.3% 99.6%  
197 0.3% 99.3%  
198 0.5% 99.0%  
199 0.5% 98.5%  
200 0.6% 98%  
201 0.8% 97%  
202 1.0% 97%  
203 0.8% 96%  
204 1.5% 95%  
205 1.3% 93%  
206 2% 92%  
207 2% 90%  
208 2% 88%  
209 2% 86%  
210 3% 84%  
211 4% 81%  
212 4% 77%  
213 5% 73%  
214 4% 69% Median
215 6% 64%  
216 5% 58%  
217 6% 53%  
218 6% 46%  
219 6% 40%  
220 5% 34%  
221 6% 29%  
222 5% 23%  
223 4% 18%  
224 3% 14%  
225 3% 11%  
226 2% 8%  
227 1.4% 6%  
228 1.1% 4%  
229 0.8% 3%  
230 0.6% 2%  
231 0.4% 2%  
232 0.3% 1.3%  
233 0.2% 0.9%  
234 0.2% 0.7%  
235 0.1% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0.1% 0.2%  
238 0.1% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
170 0.2% 99.6%  
171 0.3% 99.4%  
172 0.4% 99.1%  
173 0.5% 98.6%  
174 0.7% 98%  
175 1.1% 97%  
176 1.2% 96% Majority
177 2% 95%  
178 2% 94%  
179 2% 92%  
180 3% 89%  
181 3% 87%  
182 4% 84%  
183 4% 80%  
184 4% 75%  
185 5% 71%  
186 5% 66%  
187 6% 62% Median
188 5% 56%  
189 5% 51%  
190 5% 46%  
191 5% 41%  
192 4% 36%  
193 5% 32%  
194 4% 27%  
195 4% 23%  
196 3% 20%  
197 4% 17%  
198 3% 13%  
199 3% 10%  
200 3% 8%  
201 2% 5%  
202 1.2% 3%  
203 0.9% 2%  
204 0.3% 0.7%  
205 0.2% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0.1% 99.7%  
168 0.2% 99.6%  
169 0.2% 99.4%  
170 0.3% 99.3%  
171 0.5% 99.0%  
172 0.5% 98%  
173 0.6% 98%  
174 1.0% 97%  
175 1.2% 96%  
176 2% 95% Majority
177 2% 93%  
178 2% 92%  
179 3% 90%  
180 3% 87%  
181 5% 83%  
182 4% 79%  
183 5% 75%  
184 6% 69%  
185 5% 64%  
186 5% 58% Median
187 6% 53%  
188 6% 47%  
189 5% 41%  
190 5% 36%  
191 5% 31%  
192 5% 26%  
193 4% 21%  
194 4% 17%  
195 3% 14%  
196 3% 11%  
197 2% 8%  
198 2% 6%  
199 1.2% 4%  
200 0.8% 3%  
201 0.7% 2%  
202 0.4% 1.4%  
203 0.3% 1.0%  
204 0.2% 0.7%  
205 0.2% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.2% 99.7%  
157 0.2% 99.6%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.1%  
160 0.5% 98.6%  
161 0.6% 98%  
162 0.9% 97%  
163 1.3% 97%  
164 2% 95%  
165 2% 94%  
166 2% 92%  
167 2% 89%  
168 3% 87%  
169 3% 84% Last Result
170 4% 81%  
171 4% 77%  
172 4% 72%  
173 5% 68%  
174 5% 63%  
175 6% 58% Median
176 4% 53% Majority
177 5% 48%  
178 4% 44%  
179 4% 39%  
180 4% 35%  
181 4% 30%  
182 4% 27%  
183 4% 22%  
184 3% 19%  
185 3% 15%  
186 2% 12%  
187 2% 10%  
188 3% 7%  
189 2% 5%  
190 1.4% 3%  
191 0.8% 2%  
192 0.4% 0.9%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.2% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100% Last Result
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.5%  
156 0.4% 99.3%  
157 0.5% 98.9%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 1.0% 98%  
160 0.9% 97%  
161 2% 96%  
162 2% 94%  
163 2% 93%  
164 2% 91%  
165 2% 88%  
166 3% 86%  
167 3% 83%  
168 3% 81%  
169 3% 78%  
170 3% 74%  
171 4% 71%  
172 4% 67%  
173 5% 63% Median
174 5% 58%  
175 5% 54%  
176 6% 49% Majority
177 5% 43%  
178 4% 38%  
179 5% 34%  
180 6% 30%  
181 3% 24%  
182 4% 21%  
183 3% 17%  
184 3% 14%  
185 3% 11%  
186 2% 8%  
187 2% 6%  
188 1.2% 4%  
189 1.0% 3%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.4%  
192 0.3% 1.0%  
193 0.2% 0.7%  
194 0.2% 0.5%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0.1% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.7% 99.4%  
119 0.9% 98.8%  
120 2% 98%  
121 2% 96%  
122 2% 94%  
123 2% 92%  
124 3% 90%  
125 3% 88%  
126 3% 85%  
127 3% 82%  
128 3% 79%  
129 4% 76%  
130 4% 72%  
131 5% 68%  
132 4% 63%  
133 5% 59% Median
134 5% 55%  
135 5% 50%  
136 5% 45%  
137 5% 40%  
138 5% 35%  
139 4% 31%  
140 4% 26%  
141 5% 22%  
142 3% 18%  
143 3% 15%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 2% 7%  
147 1.5% 6%  
148 1.3% 4%  
149 0.8% 3%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.5% 2%  
152 0.4% 1.1%  
153 0.2% 0.7%  
154 0.2% 0.5%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.2% 99.5%  
91 0.2% 99.3%  
92 0.3% 99.1%  
93 0.4% 98.7%  
94 0.5% 98%  
95 0.9% 98%  
96 1.1% 97%  
97 2% 96%  
98 2% 94%  
99 3% 92%  
100 4% 89%  
101 5% 85%  
102 6% 80%  
103 7% 74%  
104 6% 67%  
105 7% 61%  
106 7% 55% Median
107 6% 47%  
108 6% 41%  
109 6% 35%  
110 4% 30%  
111 4% 25%  
112 4% 21%  
113 3% 17%  
114 3% 15%  
115 2% 12%  
116 2% 10%  
117 2% 9%  
118 1.3% 7%  
119 1.4% 6%  
120 0.9% 4%  
121 1.0% 3%  
122 0.6% 2%  
123 0.5% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.3%  
125 0.4% 1.0%  
126 0.2% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.2% 99.4%  
79 0.3% 99.2%  
80 0.3% 98.9%  
81 0.5% 98.6%  
82 0.5% 98%  
83 0.7% 98%  
84 0.9% 97%  
85 1.5% 96%  
86 3% 94%  
87 3% 91%  
88 4% 88%  
89 6% 84%  
90 6% 79%  
91 5% 72%  
92 6% 67%  
93 8% 61%  
94 9% 53% Median
95 8% 44%  
96 5% 36%  
97 6% 31%  
98 4% 25%  
99 4% 21%  
100 3% 17%  
101 2% 14%  
102 2% 12%  
103 2% 9%  
104 1.0% 8%  
105 1.1% 7%  
106 1.1% 6%  
107 1.1% 4%  
108 0.8% 3%  
109 0.7% 3%  
110 0.3% 2%  
111 0.4% 2%  
112 0.5% 1.2%  
113 0.2% 0.7%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0% Last Result

Partido Socialista Obrero Español

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.6%  
81 0.4% 99.4%  
82 1.2% 99.0%  
83 2% 98%  
84 4% 96%  
85 5% 92% Last Result
86 7% 87%  
87 6% 80%  
88 6% 74%  
89 5% 68%  
90 4% 63%  
91 5% 59%  
92 5% 54% Median
93 5% 49%  
94 4% 44%  
95 4% 40%  
96 5% 35%  
97 5% 30%  
98 5% 25%  
99 5% 20%  
100 3% 15%  
101 3% 12%  
102 2% 9%  
103 2% 7%  
104 2% 5%  
105 1.0% 4%  
106 0.8% 3%  
107 0.4% 2%  
108 0.4% 1.4%  
109 0.3% 0.9%  
110 0.2% 0.7%  
111 0.1% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations