Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 3–11 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 25.2% | 23.5–26.9% | 23.1–27.4% | 22.7–27.8% | 21.9–28.7% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 24.7% | 23.1–26.5% | 22.6–26.9% | 22.3–27.4% | 21.5–28.2% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 19.4% | 17.9–21.0% | 17.5–21.4% | 17.1–21.8% | 16.4–22.6% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 16.2% | 14.8–17.7% | 14.4–18.1% | 14.1–18.5% | 13.5–19.2% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.5–8.5% | 5.1–9.0% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 93 | 93–97 | 93–101 | 93–101 | 86–108 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 99 | 99–106 | 99–111 | 96–111 | 93–117 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 68 | 59–68 | 59–68 | 58–68 | 55–75 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 59 | 48–61 | 44–61 | 40–61 | 33–61 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6–12 | 6–17 | 6–17 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 10 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–15 | 8–15 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 2 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–8 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 1–6 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 93 | 82% | 98% | Median |
| 94 | 0% | 16% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 97 | 10% | 16% | |
| 98 | 0% | 5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 101 | 3% | 5% | |
| 102 | 0% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 108 | 2% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 96 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 96% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 99 | 73% | 96% | Median |
| 100 | 0% | 24% | |
| 101 | 3% | 24% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 21% | |
| 103 | 10% | 21% | |
| 104 | 0% | 10% | |
| 105 | 0% | 10% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 107 | 0% | 9% | |
| 108 | 0% | 9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 9% | |
| 111 | 7% | 9% | |
| 112 | 0% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 2% | |
| 116 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 10% | 95% | |
| 60 | 3% | 85% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 68 | 80% | 81% | Median |
| 69 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 0% | 98% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 42 | 0% | 97% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 44 | 3% | 97% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 46 | 0% | 94% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 48 | 7% | 94% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 52 | 0% | 86% | |
| 53 | 0% | 86% | |
| 54 | 0% | 86% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 56 | 0% | 86% | |
| 57 | 0% | 86% | |
| 58 | 0% | 86% | |
| 59 | 73% | 86% | Median |
| 60 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 61 | 12% | 12% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 100% | |
| 7 | 83% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 9 | 3% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 10% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 10 | 73% | 89% | Median |
| 11 | 2% | 16% | |
| 12 | 3% | 14% | |
| 13 | 7% | 11% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 14% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 6 | 80% | 85% | Median |
| 7 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 27% | |
| 4 | 7% | 24% | |
| 5 | 3% | 16% | Last Result |
| 6 | 12% | 14% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 11% | 90% | Last Result |
| 3 | 75% | 79% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 3% | 91% | Last Result |
| 2 | 13% | 89% | |
| 3 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloque Nacionalista Galego–Nós Candidatura Galega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 260 | 100% | 259–267 | 257–272 | 252–272 | 251–281 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 220 | 100% | 209–220 | 205–220 | 205–220 | 195–224 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 192 | 100% | 192–203 | 192–204 | 192–205 | 186–224 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 174 | 11% | 169–179 | 169–185 | 169–185 | 168–188 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 173 | 13% | 171–179 | 165–179 | 165–179 | 161–179 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 170 | 8% | 164–170 | 162–179 | 158–179 | 158–180 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 167 | 8% | 162–167 | 159–179 | 156–179 | 156–179 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 168 | 0.1% | 162–171 | 160–171 | 160–171 | 151–173 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 165 | 0% | 157–169 | 155–169 | 155–169 | 145–172 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 157 | 0% | 152–166 | 146–166 | 146–166 | 143–166 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 161 | 0.6% | 156–161 | 156–161 | 151–165 | 146–177 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 152 | 0% | 144–158 | 141–158 | 141–158 | 133–158 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 106 | 0% | 106–117 | 106–117 | 106–121 | 103–126 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 99 | 0% | 99–106 | 99–111 | 96–111 | 93–117 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 93 | 0% | 93–97 | 93–101 | 93–101 | 86–108 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 254 | 0% | 97% | Last Result |
| 255 | 0% | 97% | |
| 256 | 0% | 97% | |
| 257 | 3% | 97% | |
| 258 | 0% | 94% | |
| 259 | 10% | 94% | |
| 260 | 73% | 84% | Median |
| 261 | 0% | 11% | |
| 262 | 0% | 11% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 265 | 0% | 11% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 267 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 268 | 0% | 10% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 270 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 272 | 8% | 9% | |
| 273 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 274 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 275 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 276 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 277 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 278 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 279 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 280 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 281 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 196 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 200 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 201 | 0% | 98% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 203 | 0% | 98% | |
| 204 | 0% | 98% | |
| 205 | 3% | 98% | |
| 206 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 207 | 0% | 94% | |
| 208 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 209 | 7% | 94% | |
| 210 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 211 | 0% | 86% | |
| 212 | 2% | 86% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 214 | 0% | 84% | |
| 215 | 0% | 84% | |
| 216 | 0% | 84% | |
| 217 | 10% | 84% | |
| 218 | 0% | 74% | |
| 219 | 0% | 73% | |
| 220 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 221 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 224 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 185 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 191 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 192 | 73% | 99.3% | Median |
| 193 | 0% | 26% | |
| 194 | 2% | 26% | |
| 195 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 196 | 0% | 24% | |
| 197 | 3% | 24% | |
| 198 | 0% | 20% | |
| 199 | 0% | 20% | |
| 200 | 10% | 20% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 204 | 7% | 10% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 2% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 2% | |
| 214 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 224 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 169 | 10% | 98% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 171 | 0% | 87% | |
| 172 | 0% | 87% | |
| 173 | 3% | 87% | |
| 174 | 73% | 84% | Median |
| 175 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 11% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 178 | 0% | 10% | |
| 179 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 182 | 0% | 8% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 184 | 0% | 8% | |
| 185 | 7% | 8% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 165 | 7% | 98.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 168 | 0% | 91% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 170 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 171 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 173 | 73% | 89% | Median |
| 174 | 0% | 16% | |
| 175 | 3% | 16% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 13% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 178 | 0% | 12% | |
| 179 | 12% | 12% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 0% | 97% | |
| 161 | 0% | 97% | |
| 162 | 3% | 97% | |
| 163 | 0% | 94% | |
| 164 | 10% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0% | 84% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 167 | 0.8% | 84% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 170 | 73% | 82% | Last Result, Median |
| 171 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 172 | 0% | 9% | |
| 173 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 174 | 0% | 8% | |
| 175 | 0% | 8% | |
| 176 | 0% | 8% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 179 | 7% | 8% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0% | 97% | |
| 159 | 2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 162 | 10% | 94% | |
| 163 | 0% | 84% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 165 | 0% | 83% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 167 | 73% | 83% | Median |
| 168 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 9% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0% | 9% | |
| 171 | 0% | 9% | |
| 172 | 0% | 9% | |
| 173 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 174 | 0% | 8% | |
| 175 | 0% | 8% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 8% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 179 | 7% | 8% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 160 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 162 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 165 | 0% | 89% | |
| 166 | 3% | 89% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 168 | 73% | 86% | Median |
| 169 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 171 | 10% | 13% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 173 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 155 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 158 | 0% | 90% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 161 | 3% | 89% | |
| 162 | 0% | 87% | |
| 163 | 0% | 86% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 165 | 73% | 86% | Median |
| 166 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 14% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 169 | 10% | 13% | |
| 170 | 0% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 2% | |
| 172 | 2% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 146 | 7% | 99.2% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 148 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 153 | 0% | 89% | |
| 154 | 3% | 89% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 157 | 73% | 86% | Median |
| 158 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 159 | 0% | 13% | |
| 160 | 3% | 13% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 10% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0% | 10% | |
| 165 | 0% | 10% | |
| 166 | 10% | 10% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 150 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 151 | 2% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0% | 96% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 155 | 0% | 96% | |
| 156 | 10% | 96% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 158 | 0% | 86% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 160 | 0% | 86% | |
| 161 | 82% | 86% | Median |
| 162 | 0% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 141 | 8% | 98.6% | |
| 142 | 0% | 91% | |
| 143 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 145 | 3% | 89% | |
| 146 | 0% | 87% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 148 | 0% | 86% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 151 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 152 | 73% | 85% | Median |
| 153 | 0% | 13% | |
| 154 | 2% | 13% | |
| 155 | 0% | 11% | |
| 156 | 0% | 11% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 158 | 10% | 10% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 106 | 73% | 99.1% | Median |
| 107 | 0% | 26% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 109 | 0% | 26% | |
| 110 | 12% | 26% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 112 | 0% | 14% | |
| 113 | 3% | 14% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 115 | 0% | 10% | |
| 116 | 0% | 10% | |
| 117 | 7% | 10% | |
| 118 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 122 | 2% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 87 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 96 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 96% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 99 | 73% | 96% | Median |
| 100 | 0% | 24% | |
| 101 | 3% | 24% | |
| 102 | 0.5% | 21% | |
| 103 | 10% | 21% | |
| 104 | 0% | 10% | |
| 105 | 0% | 10% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 107 | 0% | 9% | |
| 108 | 0% | 9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 9% | |
| 111 | 7% | 9% | |
| 112 | 0% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 2% | |
| 116 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 93 | 82% | 98% | Median |
| 94 | 0% | 16% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 16% | |
| 97 | 10% | 16% | |
| 98 | 0% | 5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 101 | 3% | 5% | |
| 102 | 0% | 2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 2% | |
| 104 | 0% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0% | 2% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 108 | 2% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 3–11 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.59%