Opinion Poll by IMOP for El Confidencial, 10–13 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 25.8% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.6–28.1% | 23.2–28.5% | 22.4–29.4% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 20.6% | 19.0–22.2% | 18.6–22.7% | 18.2–23.1% | 17.5–24.0% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 19.6% | 18.1–21.2% | 17.6–21.7% | 17.3–22.1% | 16.6–22.9% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 15.5% | 14.2–17.1% | 13.8–17.5% | 13.5–17.9% | 12.8–18.6% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.1–10.4% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 109 | 103–116 | 99–117 | 95–121 | 91–126 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 72 | 67–77 | 65–79 | 65–84 | 60–92 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 78 | 73–86 | 70–86 | 66–90 | 60–93 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 43 | 38–50 | 37–56 | 36–60 | 34–64 |
| Vox | 0 | 16 | 12–20 | 11–21 | 10–24 | 9–25 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 12 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 9–16 | 7–18 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 6 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 3–10 | 1–11 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 2–9 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 5 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 1–7 | 1–8 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 2% | 94% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 102 | 2% | 92% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 105 | 9% | 89% | |
| 106 | 2% | 81% | |
| 107 | 26% | 78% | |
| 108 | 2% | 52% | |
| 109 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 110 | 6% | 46% | |
| 111 | 4% | 40% | |
| 112 | 5% | 36% | |
| 113 | 6% | 31% | |
| 114 | 7% | 25% | |
| 115 | 3% | 18% | |
| 116 | 7% | 15% | |
| 117 | 2% | 7% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 3% | 94% | |
| 67 | 13% | 91% | |
| 68 | 6% | 79% | |
| 69 | 3% | 73% | |
| 70 | 9% | 70% | |
| 71 | 7% | 61% | |
| 72 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 73 | 5% | 41% | |
| 74 | 15% | 36% | |
| 75 | 5% | 22% | |
| 76 | 6% | 17% | |
| 77 | 2% | 11% | |
| 78 | 3% | 9% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 73 | 8% | 91% | |
| 74 | 10% | 82% | |
| 75 | 3% | 72% | |
| 76 | 10% | 69% | |
| 77 | 3% | 59% | |
| 78 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 79 | 7% | 39% | |
| 80 | 1.5% | 32% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 31% | |
| 82 | 5% | 30% | |
| 83 | 6% | 25% | |
| 84 | 2% | 19% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 17% | |
| 86 | 12% | 17% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 90 | 2% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 37 | 4% | 97% | |
| 38 | 13% | 93% | |
| 39 | 4% | 81% | |
| 40 | 5% | 76% | |
| 41 | 4% | 71% | |
| 42 | 6% | 67% | |
| 43 | 24% | 61% | Median |
| 44 | 4% | 37% | |
| 45 | 8% | 33% | |
| 46 | 5% | 26% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 20% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 49 | 5% | 18% | |
| 50 | 5% | 14% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 98% | |
| 11 | 4% | 96% | |
| 12 | 7% | 92% | |
| 13 | 7% | 85% | |
| 14 | 8% | 78% | |
| 15 | 6% | 71% | |
| 16 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 17 | 4% | 47% | |
| 18 | 14% | 43% | |
| 19 | 18% | 29% | |
| 20 | 5% | 11% | |
| 21 | 2% | 6% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 10 | 6% | 92% | |
| 11 | 3% | 86% | |
| 12 | 44% | 83% | Median |
| 13 | 21% | 39% | |
| 14 | 2% | 18% | |
| 15 | 11% | 15% | |
| 16 | 2% | 5% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 4 | 6% | 96% | |
| 5 | 2% | 90% | |
| 6 | 64% | 88% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 24% | |
| 8 | 7% | 17% | Last Result |
| 9 | 3% | 10% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 33% | 33% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 4 | 5% | 91% | |
| 5 | 5% | 86% | Last Result |
| 6 | 57% | 81% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 24% | |
| 8 | 5% | 11% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 8% | 95% | Last Result |
| 3 | 11% | 87% | |
| 4 | 25% | 76% | |
| 5 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 6 | 29% | 37% | |
| 7 | 7% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular | 254 | 259 | 100% | 252–265 | 248–269 | 244–271 | 240–274 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 224 | 100% | 217–234 | 216–238 | 214–240 | 209–246 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 187 | 96% | 181–195 | 176–197 | 172–199 | 166–202 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 180 | 81% | 173–192 | 171–195 | 170–196 | 164–200 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 181 | 90% | 175–189 | 170–192 | 167–193 | 162–199 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 170 | 31% | 163–182 | 161–184 | 159–187 | 154–191 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 168 | 26% | 161–181 | 161–183 | 158–185 | 151–188 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox | 169 | 168 | 17% | 156–176 | 154–177 | 152–179 | 149–184 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 162 | 8% | 155–174 | 154–176 | 153–178 | 145–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 152 | 0.4% | 145–162 | 144–164 | 141–168 | 135–172 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular | 169 | 151 | 0% | 140–158 | 139–162 | 137–164 | 133–169 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 109 | 0% | 103–116 | 99–117 | 95–121 | 91–126 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 94 | 0% | 86–104 | 82–104 | 81–107 | 77–111 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 78 | 0% | 73–86 | 70–86 | 66–90 | 60–93 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 241 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 242 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 247 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 248 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 249 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 250 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 251 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 252 | 4% | 93% | |
| 253 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 254 | 5% | 88% | Last Result |
| 255 | 5% | 83% | |
| 256 | 8% | 78% | |
| 257 | 2% | 70% | |
| 258 | 6% | 68% | |
| 259 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 260 | 9% | 48% | |
| 261 | 4% | 39% | |
| 262 | 4% | 35% | |
| 263 | 4% | 31% | |
| 264 | 2% | 27% | |
| 265 | 16% | 25% | |
| 266 | 3% | 10% | |
| 267 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 268 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 269 | 2% | 5% | |
| 270 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 271 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 272 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 209 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 212 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 216 | 3% | 97% | |
| 217 | 12% | 94% | |
| 218 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 219 | 5% | 81% | |
| 220 | 3% | 77% | |
| 221 | 5% | 74% | |
| 222 | 4% | 69% | |
| 223 | 6% | 65% | |
| 224 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 225 | 6% | 41% | |
| 226 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 227 | 3% | 34% | |
| 228 | 3% | 32% | |
| 229 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 230 | 4% | 27% | |
| 231 | 10% | 23% | |
| 232 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 233 | 2% | 12% | |
| 234 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 235 | 2% | 10% | |
| 236 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 237 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 238 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 239 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 240 | 3% | 4% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 244 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 250 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 176 | 1.2% | 96% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 178 | 2% | 95% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 180 | 2% | 92% | |
| 181 | 6% | 91% | |
| 182 | 3% | 84% | |
| 183 | 4% | 82% | |
| 184 | 7% | 78% | |
| 185 | 17% | 71% | |
| 186 | 2% | 54% | |
| 187 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 188 | 3% | 47% | |
| 189 | 3% | 44% | |
| 190 | 6% | 41% | |
| 191 | 1.3% | 34% | |
| 192 | 4% | 33% | |
| 193 | 13% | 29% | |
| 194 | 2% | 16% | |
| 195 | 6% | 14% | |
| 196 | 3% | 8% | |
| 197 | 2% | 5% | |
| 198 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 157 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 170 | 2% | 98% | |
| 171 | 2% | 96% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 173 | 11% | 93% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 81% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 81% | |
| 178 | 8% | 79% | |
| 179 | 6% | 71% | |
| 180 | 16% | 65% | Last Result |
| 181 | 8% | 49% | Median |
| 182 | 3% | 41% | |
| 183 | 0.9% | 38% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 37% | |
| 185 | 3% | 36% | |
| 186 | 4% | 33% | |
| 187 | 1.1% | 30% | |
| 188 | 3% | 28% | |
| 189 | 2% | 25% | |
| 190 | 6% | 23% | |
| 191 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 192 | 6% | 16% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 194 | 2% | 10% | |
| 195 | 5% | 8% | |
| 196 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 100% | |
| 158 | 0% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 167 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 174 | 1.5% | 92% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 176 | 3% | 90% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 178 | 2% | 85% | |
| 179 | 16% | 83% | |
| 180 | 11% | 68% | |
| 181 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 182 | 4% | 33% | |
| 183 | 3% | 28% | |
| 184 | 3% | 26% | |
| 185 | 2% | 22% | |
| 186 | 5% | 21% | |
| 187 | 3% | 16% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 189 | 2% | 12% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 191 | 4% | 9% | |
| 192 | 2% | 5% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 196 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 159 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 160 | 2% | 97% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 163 | 11% | 94% | |
| 164 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 166 | 4% | 81% | |
| 167 | 5% | 77% | |
| 168 | 16% | 72% | |
| 169 | 2% | 56% | |
| 170 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 171 | 3% | 46% | |
| 172 | 5% | 44% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 39% | Last Result |
| 174 | 4% | 38% | |
| 175 | 3% | 34% | |
| 176 | 3% | 31% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 28% | |
| 178 | 2% | 25% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 180 | 5% | 22% | |
| 181 | 5% | 18% | |
| 182 | 3% | 13% | |
| 183 | 4% | 10% | |
| 184 | 2% | 5% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 161 | 13% | 96% | |
| 162 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 164 | 6% | 82% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 76% | |
| 166 | 5% | 75% | |
| 167 | 6% | 69% | Last Result |
| 168 | 17% | 63% | |
| 169 | 5% | 46% | Median |
| 170 | 4% | 41% | |
| 171 | 4% | 37% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 33% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 33% | |
| 174 | 1.3% | 32% | |
| 175 | 4% | 30% | |
| 176 | 6% | 26% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 178 | 6% | 19% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 180 | 2% | 13% | |
| 181 | 2% | 11% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 183 | 5% | 8% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 185 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 154 | 5% | 97% | |
| 155 | 2% | 92% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 157 | 6% | 90% | |
| 158 | 2% | 84% | |
| 159 | 6% | 82% | |
| 160 | 1.4% | 76% | |
| 161 | 3% | 75% | |
| 162 | 3% | 71% | |
| 163 | 2% | 69% | |
| 164 | 3% | 67% | |
| 165 | 0.7% | 64% | |
| 166 | 0.9% | 63% | Median |
| 167 | 6% | 62% | |
| 168 | 18% | 56% | |
| 169 | 5% | 38% | Last Result |
| 170 | 7% | 33% | |
| 171 | 4% | 25% | |
| 172 | 2% | 21% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 176 | 11% | 17% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 179 | 2% | 4% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 153 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 154 | 4% | 97% | |
| 155 | 12% | 93% | |
| 156 | 2% | 81% | |
| 157 | 4% | 79% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 75% | |
| 159 | 5% | 75% | |
| 160 | 5% | 70% | |
| 161 | 4% | 65% | |
| 162 | 14% | 62% | |
| 163 | 5% | 48% | Last Result, Median |
| 164 | 5% | 43% | |
| 165 | 2% | 38% | |
| 166 | 3% | 36% | |
| 167 | 2% | 33% | |
| 168 | 3% | 31% | |
| 169 | 4% | 28% | |
| 170 | 3% | 25% | |
| 171 | 2% | 21% | |
| 172 | 8% | 19% | |
| 173 | 2% | 12% | |
| 174 | 2% | 10% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 176 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 143 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 144 | 2% | 96% | |
| 145 | 16% | 93% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 147 | 1.4% | 77% | |
| 148 | 5% | 75% | |
| 149 | 2% | 71% | |
| 150 | 15% | 69% | |
| 151 | 4% | 54% | |
| 152 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 153 | 5% | 48% | |
| 154 | 5% | 43% | |
| 155 | 3% | 38% | |
| 156 | 2% | 35% | Last Result |
| 157 | 4% | 32% | |
| 158 | 2% | 29% | |
| 159 | 1.3% | 26% | |
| 160 | 4% | 25% | |
| 161 | 5% | 21% | |
| 162 | 6% | 16% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 164 | 4% | 9% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 166 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 139 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 140 | 5% | 95% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 142 | 2% | 88% | |
| 143 | 4% | 86% | |
| 144 | 8% | 82% | |
| 145 | 4% | 74% | |
| 146 | 2% | 70% | |
| 147 | 3% | 68% | |
| 148 | 4% | 65% | |
| 149 | 7% | 61% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 54% | Median |
| 151 | 8% | 53% | |
| 152 | 14% | 46% | |
| 153 | 2% | 31% | |
| 154 | 3% | 29% | |
| 155 | 6% | 27% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 20% | |
| 158 | 12% | 19% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 162 | 2% | 5% | |
| 163 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 164 | 2% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 100 | 2% | 94% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 102 | 2% | 92% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 105 | 9% | 89% | |
| 106 | 2% | 81% | |
| 107 | 26% | 78% | |
| 108 | 2% | 52% | |
| 109 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 110 | 6% | 46% | |
| 111 | 4% | 40% | |
| 112 | 5% | 36% | |
| 113 | 6% | 31% | |
| 114 | 7% | 25% | |
| 115 | 3% | 18% | |
| 116 | 7% | 15% | |
| 117 | 2% | 7% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 81 | 3% | 98% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 85 | 3% | 94% | |
| 86 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 87 | 10% | 90% | |
| 88 | 4% | 80% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 76% | |
| 90 | 2% | 75% | |
| 91 | 3% | 73% | |
| 92 | 3% | 70% | |
| 93 | 3% | 67% | |
| 94 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 95 | 10% | 47% | |
| 96 | 1.0% | 37% | |
| 97 | 1.5% | 36% | |
| 98 | 7% | 34% | |
| 99 | 1.4% | 28% | |
| 100 | 3% | 26% | |
| 101 | 3% | 23% | |
| 102 | 5% | 20% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 104 | 11% | 14% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 107 | 2% | 3% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 73 | 8% | 91% | |
| 74 | 10% | 82% | |
| 75 | 3% | 72% | |
| 76 | 10% | 69% | |
| 77 | 3% | 59% | |
| 78 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 79 | 7% | 39% | |
| 80 | 1.5% | 32% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 31% | |
| 82 | 5% | 30% | |
| 83 | 6% | 25% | |
| 84 | 2% | 19% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 17% | |
| 86 | 12% | 17% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 90 | 2% | 3% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IMOP
- Commissioner(s): El Confidencial
- Fieldwork period: 10–13 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1036
- Simulations done: 1,048,575
- Error estimate: 1.98%