Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 5–14 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 24.8% | 23.1–26.6% | 22.6–27.1% | 22.2–27.6% | 21.4–28.5% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 24.4% | 22.7–26.2% | 22.2–26.7% | 21.8–27.2% | 21.0–28.0% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 17.2% | 15.7–18.8% | 15.3–19.3% | 15.0–19.7% | 14.3–20.5% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 91 | 91–105 | 88–110 | 88–111 | 85–113 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 104 | 92–113 | 86–113 | 86–118 | 81–119 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 60 | 54–64 | 52–67 | 51–68 | 45–73 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 54 | 45–61 | 42–62 | 39–65 | 39–70 |
| Vox | 0 | 18 | 14–19 | 12–22 | 12–22 | 9–26 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 12 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 7–17 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 4 | 2–8 | 2–8 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 6 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 1–9 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 1–4 | 1–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 4% | 98% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 91 | 49% | 93% | Median |
| 92 | 5% | 44% | |
| 93 | 2% | 39% | |
| 94 | 2% | 37% | |
| 95 | 4% | 35% | |
| 96 | 11% | 31% | |
| 97 | 4% | 20% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 16% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 105 | 5% | 13% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 111 | 2% | 5% | |
| 112 | 2% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 86 | 4% | 98% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 93 | 6% | 90% | |
| 94 | 3% | 84% | |
| 95 | 2% | 81% | |
| 96 | 5% | 80% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 99 | 11% | 74% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 63% | |
| 101 | 2% | 63% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 60% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 59% | |
| 104 | 33% | 59% | Median |
| 105 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 26% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 26% | |
| 108 | 2% | 25% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 110 | 4% | 23% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 113 | 14% | 18% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0% | 3% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 96% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 54 | 3% | 92% | |
| 55 | 5% | 89% | |
| 56 | 2% | 83% | |
| 57 | 12% | 81% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 69% | |
| 59 | 6% | 68% | |
| 60 | 37% | 62% | Median |
| 61 | 8% | 25% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 63 | 6% | 16% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 67 | 5% | 8% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 42 | 4% | 96% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 44 | 1.5% | 92% | |
| 45 | 2% | 90% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 47 | 21% | 88% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 67% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 66% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 66% | |
| 51 | 4% | 66% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 62% | |
| 53 | 3% | 61% | |
| 54 | 32% | 58% | Median |
| 55 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 26% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 59 | 6% | 24% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 61 | 9% | 16% | |
| 62 | 4% | 7% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 12 | 7% | 98% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 14 | 9% | 90% | |
| 15 | 6% | 81% | |
| 16 | 14% | 76% | |
| 17 | 8% | 62% | |
| 18 | 42% | 54% | Median |
| 19 | 5% | 12% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 18% | 98% | Last Result |
| 10 | 3% | 80% | |
| 11 | 3% | 77% | |
| 12 | 47% | 74% | Median |
| 13 | 15% | 27% | |
| 14 | 4% | 13% | |
| 15 | 7% | 8% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 33% | 98% | |
| 3 | 9% | 65% | |
| 4 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 36% | |
| 6 | 15% | 31% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 16% | |
| 8 | 15% | 16% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 98% | |
| 3 | 25% | 95% | |
| 4 | 3% | 70% | |
| 5 | 9% | 67% | Last Result |
| 6 | 50% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 8% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 18% | 97% | |
| 2 | 50% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 8% | 30% | |
| 4 | 13% | 23% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 255 | 100% | 249–263 | 248–266 | 244–270 | 239–272 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 205 | 100% | 195–217 | 193–227 | 191–230 | 187–230 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 195 | 99.7% | 188–206 | 184–212 | 183–213 | 178–217 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 182 | 68% | 167–186 | 161–188 | 161–191 | 155–191 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 167 | 25% | 163–182 | 161–188 | 158–188 | 158–194 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 159 | 14% | 155–176 | 155–182 | 150–182 | 150–187 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 159 | 8% | 149–173 | 149–181 | 149–182 | 149–184 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 164 | 3% | 150–170 | 149–171 | 146–177 | 141–180 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 153 | 1.1% | 146–165 | 145–173 | 142–173 | 141–178 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 151 | 0.5% | 148–165 | 147–168 | 144–169 | 138–177 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 145 | 0% | 138–157 | 138–167 | 134–167 | 133–172 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 122 | 0% | 107–129 | 101–132 | 98–132 | 98–137 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 104 | 0% | 92–113 | 86–113 | 86–118 | 81–119 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 91 | 0% | 91–105 | 88–110 | 88–111 | 85–113 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 239 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 240 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 243 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 246 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 247 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 248 | 5% | 95% | |
| 249 | 2% | 91% | |
| 250 | 6% | 89% | |
| 251 | 5% | 84% | |
| 252 | 0.6% | 78% | |
| 253 | 1.4% | 78% | |
| 254 | 5% | 76% | Last Result |
| 255 | 32% | 72% | Median |
| 256 | 7% | 40% | |
| 257 | 4% | 33% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 29% | |
| 259 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 260 | 0.4% | 28% | |
| 261 | 12% | 27% | |
| 262 | 5% | 16% | |
| 263 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 264 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 266 | 4% | 9% | |
| 267 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 268 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 269 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 270 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 271 | 0% | 2% | |
| 272 | 2% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 186 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 191 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 193 | 2% | 95% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 195 | 12% | 93% | |
| 196 | 2% | 81% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 79% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 79% | |
| 200 | 3% | 78% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 75% | |
| 203 | 0.7% | 75% | |
| 204 | 6% | 74% | |
| 205 | 34% | 69% | Median |
| 206 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 207 | 0.6% | 35% | |
| 208 | 0.8% | 34% | |
| 209 | 1.0% | 33% | |
| 210 | 2% | 32% | |
| 211 | 0.5% | 30% | |
| 212 | 5% | 30% | |
| 213 | 6% | 24% | |
| 214 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 17% | |
| 216 | 3% | 17% | |
| 217 | 5% | 13% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 221 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 223 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 226 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 227 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 229 | 0% | 4% | |
| 230 | 4% | 4% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 0% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 184 | 5% | 97% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 188 | 4% | 90% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 191 | 6% | 85% | |
| 192 | 0.8% | 79% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 79% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 78% | |
| 195 | 42% | 78% | Median |
| 196 | 0.3% | 36% | |
| 197 | 0.6% | 35% | |
| 198 | 5% | 35% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 29% | |
| 200 | 0.6% | 29% | |
| 201 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 28% | |
| 203 | 2% | 27% | |
| 204 | 12% | 24% | |
| 205 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 206 | 2% | 12% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 208 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 210 | 3% | 9% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 212 | 2% | 5% | |
| 213 | 2% | 3% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 217 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 223 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 161 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 162 | 0% | 94% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 166 | 2% | 93% | |
| 167 | 2% | 91% | |
| 168 | 2% | 89% | |
| 169 | 5% | 88% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 81% | |
| 173 | 5% | 80% | |
| 174 | 7% | 75% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 69% | |
| 176 | 1.4% | 68% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 67% | |
| 178 | 7% | 65% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 58% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 58% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 58% | |
| 182 | 32% | 57% | Median |
| 183 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 184 | 4% | 25% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 21% | |
| 186 | 14% | 20% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 189 | 2% | 5% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 191 | 3% | 3% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 158 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 2% | 97% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 163 | 14% | 94% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 165 | 4% | 79% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 167 | 32% | 75% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 43% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 42% | Median |
| 170 | 0.2% | 42% | |
| 171 | 7% | 42% | |
| 172 | 2% | 35% | |
| 173 | 1.4% | 33% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 32% | |
| 175 | 7% | 31% | |
| 176 | 5% | 25% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.8% | 20% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 180 | 5% | 18% | Last Result |
| 181 | 2% | 12% | |
| 182 | 2% | 11% | |
| 183 | 2% | 9% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 187 | 0% | 6% | |
| 188 | 4% | 6% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 155 | 12% | 96% | |
| 156 | 3% | 84% | |
| 157 | 2% | 81% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 159 | 35% | 78% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 43% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 42% | Median |
| 162 | 6% | 42% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 36% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 36% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 34% | |
| 166 | 6% | 33% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 27% | |
| 168 | 5% | 27% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 170 | 1.5% | 20% | |
| 171 | 2% | 19% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 173 | 0.8% | 16% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 175 | 2% | 15% | |
| 176 | 5% | 14% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 178 | 2% | 8% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 182 | 4% | 6% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 184 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 149 | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 150 | 3% | 88% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 155 | 3% | 83% | |
| 156 | 5% | 81% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 158 | 2% | 75% | |
| 159 | 32% | 73% | Median |
| 160 | 0.2% | 41% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 41% | |
| 162 | 7% | 40% | |
| 163 | 5% | 33% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 28% | |
| 165 | 2% | 28% | |
| 166 | 5% | 26% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 21% | Last Result |
| 168 | 1.1% | 20% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 173 | 7% | 16% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 8% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 8% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 182 | 4% | 5% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 139 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 146 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 149 | 4% | 97% | |
| 150 | 2% | 92% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 90% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 154 | 5% | 88% | |
| 155 | 5% | 83% | |
| 156 | 6% | 78% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 72% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 71% | |
| 160 | 11% | 71% | |
| 161 | 1.0% | 60% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 59% | |
| 163 | 1.4% | 59% | |
| 164 | 32% | 57% | Median |
| 165 | 4% | 25% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 21% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 20% | |
| 169 | 3% | 20% | Last Result |
| 170 | 12% | 17% | |
| 171 | 2% | 5% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0% | 3% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 3% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 142 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 144 | 0% | 97% | |
| 145 | 5% | 97% | |
| 146 | 12% | 92% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 80% | |
| 148 | 3% | 79% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 76% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 75% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 152 | 6% | 74% | |
| 153 | 33% | 68% | Median |
| 154 | 2% | 35% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 34% | |
| 156 | 2% | 33% | |
| 157 | 2% | 32% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 30% | |
| 159 | 5% | 29% | |
| 160 | 1.4% | 24% | |
| 161 | 9% | 23% | |
| 162 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 13% | Last Result |
| 164 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 165 | 2% | 11% | |
| 166 | 2% | 9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 7% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 173 | 4% | 6% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 178 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 141 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 98.5% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 145 | 2% | 97% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 147 | 3% | 95% | |
| 148 | 12% | 92% | |
| 149 | 3% | 80% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 151 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 152 | 5% | 40% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 35% | |
| 154 | 4% | 35% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 32% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 31% | |
| 157 | 7% | 30% | |
| 158 | 7% | 23% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 165 | 2% | 12% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 168 | 6% | 9% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 136 | 0% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 138 | 12% | 96% | |
| 139 | 4% | 85% | |
| 140 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 141 | 3% | 80% | |
| 142 | 2% | 77% | |
| 143 | 6% | 75% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 69% | |
| 145 | 33% | 69% | Median |
| 146 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 34% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 34% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 33% | |
| 150 | 6% | 32% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 152 | 2% | 25% | |
| 153 | 5% | 23% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 155 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 16% | Last Result |
| 157 | 6% | 16% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 162 | 2% | 8% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 167 | 4% | 6% | |
| 168 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 171 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 172 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 101 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 102 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 107 | 7% | 93% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 110 | 2% | 85% | |
| 111 | 2% | 84% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 113 | 8% | 81% | |
| 114 | 5% | 74% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 69% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 68% | |
| 117 | 6% | 68% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 61% | |
| 119 | 0.6% | 60% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 60% | |
| 121 | 1.2% | 59% | |
| 122 | 32% | 58% | Median |
| 123 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 124 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 126 | 3% | 25% | |
| 127 | 3% | 22% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 129 | 12% | 19% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 132 | 5% | 7% | |
| 133 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 86 | 4% | 98% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 89 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 93 | 6% | 90% | |
| 94 | 3% | 84% | |
| 95 | 2% | 81% | |
| 96 | 5% | 80% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 99 | 11% | 74% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 63% | |
| 101 | 2% | 63% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 60% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 59% | |
| 104 | 33% | 59% | Median |
| 105 | 0.1% | 26% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 26% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 26% | |
| 108 | 2% | 25% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 110 | 4% | 23% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 113 | 14% | 18% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 115 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 117 | 0% | 3% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 4% | 98% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 90 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 91 | 49% | 93% | Median |
| 92 | 5% | 44% | |
| 93 | 2% | 39% | |
| 94 | 2% | 37% | |
| 95 | 4% | 35% | |
| 96 | 11% | 31% | |
| 97 | 4% | 20% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 16% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 104 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 105 | 5% | 13% | |
| 106 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 110 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 111 | 2% | 5% | |
| 112 | 2% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 5–14 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.08%