Opinion Poll by Simple Lógica, 3–14 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 23.2% | 21.7–24.8% | 21.2–25.3% | 20.9–25.7% | 20.2–26.4% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 20.4% | 19.0–22.0% | 18.6–22.4% | 18.2–22.8% | 17.6–23.6% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 18.8% | 17.4–20.3% | 17.0–20.7% | 16.7–21.1% | 16.0–21.8% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 17.7% | 16.3–19.2% | 16.0–19.6% | 15.6–20.0% | 15.0–20.7% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 8.7% | 7.8–9.9% | 7.5–10.2% | 7.3–10.5% | 6.8–11.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 96 | 88–105 | 86–109 | 84–111 | 81–115 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 72 | 66–79 | 63–81 | 63–84 | 61–91 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 76 | 66–85 | 63–87 | 62–89 | 58–92 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 62 | 49–69 | 46–71 | 45–73 | 44–76 |
| Vox | 0 | 18 | 13–24 | 12–26 | 12–27 | 11–28 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 86 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 87 | 3% | 94% | |
| 88 | 4% | 91% | |
| 89 | 8% | 87% | |
| 90 | 5% | 79% | |
| 91 | 5% | 74% | |
| 92 | 5% | 69% | |
| 93 | 4% | 64% | |
| 94 | 4% | 60% | |
| 95 | 4% | 56% | |
| 96 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 97 | 7% | 44% | |
| 98 | 6% | 37% | |
| 99 | 5% | 31% | |
| 100 | 4% | 26% | |
| 101 | 3% | 22% | |
| 102 | 3% | 19% | |
| 103 | 3% | 16% | |
| 104 | 2% | 13% | |
| 105 | 2% | 11% | |
| 106 | 2% | 9% | |
| 107 | 2% | 8% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 94% | |
| 65 | 2% | 93% | |
| 66 | 4% | 90% | |
| 67 | 7% | 86% | |
| 68 | 7% | 79% | |
| 69 | 6% | 72% | |
| 70 | 6% | 65% | |
| 71 | 7% | 60% | |
| 72 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 73 | 6% | 46% | |
| 74 | 6% | 40% | |
| 75 | 6% | 34% | |
| 76 | 8% | 28% | |
| 77 | 4% | 21% | |
| 78 | 4% | 16% | |
| 79 | 3% | 12% | |
| 80 | 3% | 10% | |
| 81 | 2% | 7% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 64 | 2% | 95% | |
| 65 | 2% | 93% | |
| 66 | 2% | 92% | |
| 67 | 2% | 90% | |
| 68 | 3% | 88% | |
| 69 | 4% | 86% | |
| 70 | 4% | 82% | |
| 71 | 4% | 78% | |
| 72 | 4% | 74% | |
| 73 | 5% | 70% | |
| 74 | 2% | 65% | |
| 75 | 10% | 63% | |
| 76 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 77 | 5% | 46% | |
| 78 | 4% | 40% | |
| 79 | 4% | 36% | |
| 80 | 5% | 32% | |
| 81 | 5% | 27% | |
| 82 | 3% | 22% | |
| 83 | 2% | 19% | |
| 84 | 3% | 16% | |
| 85 | 4% | 13% | |
| 86 | 2% | 9% | |
| 87 | 2% | 7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 47 | 2% | 94% | |
| 48 | 2% | 92% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 51 | 3% | 88% | |
| 52 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 53 | 4% | 83% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 79% | |
| 55 | 6% | 77% | |
| 56 | 3% | 72% | |
| 57 | 3% | 69% | |
| 58 | 2% | 66% | |
| 59 | 3% | 64% | |
| 60 | 4% | 61% | |
| 61 | 4% | 57% | |
| 62 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 63 | 10% | 46% | |
| 64 | 6% | 36% | |
| 65 | 5% | 30% | |
| 66 | 5% | 25% | |
| 67 | 4% | 20% | |
| 68 | 4% | 16% | |
| 69 | 3% | 12% | |
| 70 | 2% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 72 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 13 | 11% | 93% | |
| 14 | 9% | 82% | |
| 15 | 4% | 73% | |
| 16 | 5% | 69% | |
| 17 | 6% | 63% | |
| 18 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 19 | 13% | 49% | |
| 20 | 7% | 35% | |
| 21 | 5% | 28% | |
| 22 | 5% | 23% | |
| 23 | 3% | 18% | |
| 24 | 5% | 14% | |
| 25 | 3% | 9% | |
| 26 | 4% | 7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular | 254 | 247 | 100% | 232–255 | 230–257 | 229–258 | 227–260 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 228 | 100% | 219–237 | 216–240 | 214–242 | 210–246 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 172 | 38% | 159–184 | 156–186 | 154–188 | 150–191 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 167 | 16% | 159–178 | 157–182 | 154–183 | 150–187 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox | 169 | 166 | 11% | 158–176 | 155–179 | 153–181 | 149–185 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 157 | 0.2% | 146–165 | 143–168 | 141–170 | 137–174 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular | 169 | 148 | 0% | 137–159 | 134–161 | 133–163 | 129–166 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 96 | 0% | 88–105 | 86–109 | 84–111 | 81–115 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 94 | 0% | 86–103 | 84–105 | 82–108 | 78–112 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 76 | 0% | 66–85 | 63–87 | 62–89 | 58–92 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 226 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 227 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 228 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 229 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 230 | 3% | 97% | |
| 231 | 3% | 94% | |
| 232 | 5% | 91% | |
| 233 | 5% | 86% | |
| 234 | 7% | 81% | |
| 235 | 4% | 74% | |
| 236 | 3% | 70% | |
| 237 | 2% | 67% | |
| 238 | 1.3% | 65% | |
| 239 | 0.9% | 63% | |
| 240 | 0.2% | 62% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 62% | |
| 242 | 0.3% | 62% | |
| 243 | 0.8% | 62% | |
| 244 | 1.1% | 61% | Median |
| 245 | 3% | 60% | |
| 246 | 5% | 57% | |
| 247 | 8% | 52% | |
| 248 | 7% | 44% | |
| 249 | 6% | 38% | |
| 250 | 6% | 32% | |
| 251 | 4% | 26% | |
| 252 | 4% | 22% | |
| 253 | 2% | 18% | |
| 254 | 3% | 16% | Last Result |
| 255 | 3% | 13% | |
| 256 | 4% | 10% | |
| 257 | 2% | 6% | |
| 258 | 3% | 4% | |
| 259 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 260 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 100% | |
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 100% | |
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 100% | |
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0% | 100% | |
| 206 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 214 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 215 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 216 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 217 | 2% | 95% | |
| 218 | 2% | 93% | |
| 219 | 3% | 91% | |
| 220 | 3% | 88% | |
| 221 | 3% | 85% | |
| 222 | 3% | 82% | |
| 223 | 4% | 79% | |
| 224 | 3% | 74% | |
| 225 | 5% | 71% | |
| 226 | 6% | 66% | |
| 227 | 5% | 59% | |
| 228 | 5% | 55% | |
| 229 | 5% | 49% | |
| 230 | 6% | 44% | Median |
| 231 | 5% | 38% | |
| 232 | 5% | 34% | |
| 233 | 4% | 29% | |
| 234 | 5% | 24% | |
| 235 | 4% | 19% | |
| 236 | 3% | 15% | |
| 237 | 2% | 12% | |
| 238 | 2% | 9% | |
| 239 | 2% | 7% | |
| 240 | 2% | 5% | |
| 241 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 242 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 243 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 250 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 157 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 158 | 3% | 93% | |
| 159 | 2% | 91% | |
| 160 | 3% | 89% | |
| 161 | 2% | 86% | |
| 162 | 3% | 84% | |
| 163 | 3% | 81% | |
| 164 | 3% | 79% | |
| 165 | 2% | 76% | |
| 166 | 3% | 73% | |
| 167 | 4% | 70% | |
| 168 | 2% | 66% | |
| 169 | 3% | 64% | |
| 170 | 3% | 60% | |
| 171 | 5% | 58% | |
| 172 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 173 | 3% | 49% | |
| 174 | 4% | 46% | |
| 175 | 4% | 42% | |
| 176 | 6% | 38% | Majority |
| 177 | 3% | 32% | |
| 178 | 4% | 29% | |
| 179 | 3% | 24% | |
| 180 | 3% | 22% | |
| 181 | 2% | 18% | |
| 182 | 3% | 16% | |
| 183 | 3% | 13% | |
| 184 | 2% | 10% | |
| 185 | 2% | 8% | |
| 186 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 187 | 2% | 5% | |
| 188 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 191 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 157 | 2% | 95% | |
| 158 | 2% | 93% | |
| 159 | 3% | 91% | |
| 160 | 3% | 88% | |
| 161 | 4% | 85% | |
| 162 | 4% | 80% | |
| 163 | 4% | 76% | |
| 164 | 5% | 72% | |
| 165 | 7% | 67% | |
| 166 | 6% | 60% | |
| 167 | 5% | 54% | |
| 168 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 169 | 5% | 44% | |
| 170 | 4% | 39% | |
| 171 | 4% | 35% | |
| 172 | 4% | 31% | |
| 173 | 4% | 27% | |
| 174 | 3% | 23% | |
| 175 | 4% | 20% | |
| 176 | 2% | 16% | Majority |
| 177 | 2% | 14% | |
| 178 | 2% | 12% | |
| 179 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 180 | 2% | 8% | |
| 181 | 2% | 7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 5% | |
| 183 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 154 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 155 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 156 | 2% | 94% | |
| 157 | 2% | 93% | |
| 158 | 3% | 91% | |
| 159 | 3% | 87% | |
| 160 | 4% | 84% | |
| 161 | 5% | 80% | |
| 162 | 6% | 75% | |
| 163 | 6% | 69% | |
| 164 | 7% | 63% | |
| 165 | 5% | 56% | |
| 166 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 167 | 5% | 47% | |
| 168 | 5% | 42% | |
| 169 | 4% | 37% | Last Result |
| 170 | 4% | 32% | |
| 171 | 3% | 28% | |
| 172 | 5% | 25% | |
| 173 | 3% | 20% | |
| 174 | 3% | 17% | |
| 175 | 3% | 14% | |
| 176 | 2% | 11% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 178 | 2% | 8% | |
| 179 | 2% | 6% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 139 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 143 | 2% | 96% | |
| 144 | 2% | 94% | |
| 145 | 2% | 92% | |
| 146 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 147 | 2% | 90% | |
| 148 | 3% | 87% | |
| 149 | 4% | 84% | |
| 150 | 4% | 80% | |
| 151 | 4% | 76% | |
| 152 | 4% | 72% | |
| 153 | 4% | 68% | |
| 154 | 6% | 64% | |
| 155 | 4% | 58% | |
| 156 | 4% | 55% | Last Result |
| 157 | 6% | 51% | |
| 158 | 5% | 45% | Median |
| 159 | 6% | 40% | |
| 160 | 5% | 34% | |
| 161 | 5% | 28% | |
| 162 | 5% | 23% | |
| 163 | 4% | 18% | |
| 164 | 3% | 14% | |
| 165 | 3% | 11% | |
| 166 | 2% | 9% | |
| 167 | 2% | 7% | |
| 168 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 169 | 2% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 134 | 2% | 96% | |
| 135 | 2% | 95% | |
| 136 | 2% | 92% | |
| 137 | 2% | 90% | |
| 138 | 3% | 88% | |
| 139 | 2% | 85% | |
| 140 | 3% | 83% | |
| 141 | 4% | 80% | |
| 142 | 3% | 76% | |
| 143 | 2% | 73% | |
| 144 | 3% | 71% | |
| 145 | 4% | 68% | |
| 146 | 5% | 64% | |
| 147 | 5% | 59% | |
| 148 | 5% | 54% | Median |
| 149 | 5% | 49% | |
| 150 | 3% | 44% | |
| 151 | 3% | 41% | |
| 152 | 4% | 37% | |
| 153 | 5% | 33% | |
| 154 | 4% | 28% | |
| 155 | 2% | 24% | |
| 156 | 4% | 22% | |
| 157 | 3% | 17% | |
| 158 | 2% | 14% | |
| 159 | 2% | 12% | |
| 160 | 3% | 10% | |
| 161 | 2% | 7% | |
| 162 | 2% | 4% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 86 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 87 | 3% | 94% | |
| 88 | 4% | 91% | |
| 89 | 8% | 87% | |
| 90 | 5% | 79% | |
| 91 | 5% | 74% | |
| 92 | 5% | 69% | |
| 93 | 4% | 64% | |
| 94 | 4% | 60% | |
| 95 | 4% | 56% | |
| 96 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 97 | 7% | 44% | |
| 98 | 6% | 37% | |
| 99 | 5% | 31% | |
| 100 | 4% | 26% | |
| 101 | 3% | 22% | |
| 102 | 3% | 19% | |
| 103 | 3% | 16% | |
| 104 | 2% | 13% | |
| 105 | 2% | 11% | |
| 106 | 2% | 9% | |
| 107 | 2% | 8% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 109 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 111 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 84 | 2% | 96% | |
| 85 | 3% | 94% | |
| 86 | 2% | 91% | |
| 87 | 3% | 89% | |
| 88 | 6% | 86% | |
| 89 | 5% | 80% | |
| 90 | 6% | 74% | |
| 91 | 5% | 68% | |
| 92 | 5% | 64% | |
| 93 | 7% | 59% | |
| 94 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 95 | 6% | 47% | |
| 96 | 7% | 41% | |
| 97 | 6% | 34% | |
| 98 | 3% | 28% | |
| 99 | 3% | 25% | |
| 100 | 4% | 21% | |
| 101 | 3% | 18% | |
| 102 | 2% | 15% | |
| 103 | 3% | 13% | |
| 104 | 3% | 10% | |
| 105 | 2% | 6% | |
| 106 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 107 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 108 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 64 | 2% | 95% | |
| 65 | 2% | 93% | |
| 66 | 2% | 92% | |
| 67 | 2% | 90% | |
| 68 | 3% | 88% | |
| 69 | 4% | 86% | |
| 70 | 4% | 82% | |
| 71 | 4% | 78% | |
| 72 | 4% | 74% | |
| 73 | 5% | 70% | |
| 74 | 2% | 65% | |
| 75 | 10% | 63% | |
| 76 | 7% | 52% | Median |
| 77 | 5% | 46% | |
| 78 | 4% | 40% | |
| 79 | 4% | 36% | |
| 80 | 5% | 32% | |
| 81 | 5% | 27% | |
| 82 | 3% | 22% | |
| 83 | 2% | 19% | |
| 84 | 3% | 16% | |
| 85 | 4% | 13% | |
| 86 | 2% | 9% | |
| 87 | 2% | 7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Simple Lógica
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–14 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1204
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.04%