Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es, 2–8 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 22.6% | 24.1% | 22.5–25.8% | 22.0–26.3% | 21.6–26.7% | 20.9–27.6% |
| Partido Popular | 33.0% | 23.8% | 22.2–25.5% | 21.8–26.0% | 21.4–26.4% | 20.6–27.3% |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 13.1% | 19.6% | 18.2–21.2% | 17.7–21.7% | 17.4–22.1% | 16.7–22.9% |
| Unidos Podemos | 21.2% | 16.1% | 14.7–17.6% | 14.4–18.0% | 14.0–18.4% | 13.4–19.1% |
| Vox | 0.2% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.2–10.4% |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.8–4.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.7% |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 93 | 89–102 | 88–105 | 86–108 | 83–113 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 98 | 91–107 | 88–112 | 84–112 | 81–117 |
| Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 32 | 65 | 61–71 | 59–74 | 59–77 | 55–79 |
| Unidos Podemos | 71 | 49 | 42–58 | 39–58 | 38–60 | 34–66 |
| Vox | 0 | 13 | 11–19 | 10–22 | 10–22 | 8–24 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 9 | 13 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 8–15 | 7–17 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 8 | 5 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 1–10 |
| Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 5 | 5 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 1–9 |
| Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Euskal Herria Bildu | 2 | 2 | 1–5 | 1–6 | 1–7 | 0–8 |
| Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista Obrero Español page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 88 | 5% | 96% | |
| 89 | 5% | 90% | |
| 90 | 2% | 85% | |
| 91 | 24% | 83% | |
| 92 | 6% | 59% | |
| 93 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 94 | 9% | 50% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 40% | |
| 96 | 18% | 39% | |
| 97 | 2% | 21% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 99 | 3% | 18% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 102 | 5% | 13% | |
| 103 | 2% | 8% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 90 | 2% | 93% | |
| 91 | 8% | 92% | |
| 92 | 3% | 84% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 95 | 7% | 80% | |
| 96 | 2% | 73% | |
| 97 | 6% | 72% | |
| 98 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 99 | 4% | 49% | |
| 100 | 3% | 44% | |
| 101 | 3% | 41% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 38% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 38% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 37% | |
| 105 | 26% | 36% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 107 | 2% | 10% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 112 | 5% | 7% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 59 | 6% | 98% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 61 | 4% | 90% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 63 | 23% | 85% | |
| 64 | 6% | 62% | |
| 65 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 66 | 8% | 38% | |
| 67 | 4% | 30% | |
| 68 | 4% | 26% | |
| 69 | 6% | 23% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 16% | |
| 71 | 6% | 15% | |
| 72 | 3% | 10% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 6% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 79 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Unidos Podemos
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Unidos Podemos page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 2% | 96% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 41 | 2% | 93% | |
| 42 | 2% | 91% | |
| 43 | 6% | 89% | |
| 44 | 2% | 83% | |
| 45 | 7% | 81% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 74% | |
| 47 | 4% | 73% | |
| 48 | 2% | 68% | |
| 49 | 17% | 67% | Median |
| 50 | 4% | 49% | |
| 51 | 2% | 45% | |
| 52 | 2% | 43% | |
| 53 | 2% | 41% | |
| 54 | 23% | 39% | |
| 55 | 3% | 16% | |
| 56 | 2% | 14% | |
| 57 | 2% | 12% | |
| 58 | 6% | 10% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 10 | 3% | 98% | |
| 11 | 30% | 95% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 65% | |
| 13 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 14 | 5% | 43% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 39% | |
| 16 | 3% | 37% | |
| 17 | 15% | 34% | |
| 18 | 6% | 20% | |
| 19 | 4% | 14% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 21 | 3% | 8% | |
| 22 | 4% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 9 | 15% | 96% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 11 | 5% | 81% | |
| 12 | 14% | 75% | |
| 13 | 32% | 61% | Median |
| 14 | 5% | 29% | |
| 15 | 22% | 24% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 6% | 98% | |
| 4 | 14% | 93% | |
| 5 | 30% | 79% | Median |
| 6 | 31% | 49% | |
| 7 | 2% | 18% | |
| 8 | 10% | 15% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 30% | 94% | |
| 4 | 4% | 64% | |
| 5 | 10% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 21% | 50% | |
| 7 | 27% | 29% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Euskal Herria Bildu
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Euskal Herria Bildu page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 31% | 98% | |
| 2 | 20% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 23% | 48% | |
| 4 | 10% | 25% | |
| 5 | 7% | 15% | |
| 6 | 5% | 9% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | |
| 1 | 27% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 22% | 24% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 254 | 259 | 100% | 252–265 | 251–269 | 249–271 | 240–276 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos | 188 | 208 | 100% | 199–221 | 197–221 | 194–226 | 190–230 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular | 222 | 194 | 99.5% | 186–200 | 182–204 | 178–206 | 175–211 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 169 | 179 | 77% | 172–190 | 169–191 | 167–192 | 163–197 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 180 | 171 | 12% | 159–176 | 159–180 | 157–182 | 152–187 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 174 | 170 | 8% | 162–175 | 160–178 | 155–181 | 150–189 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario | 170 | 166 | 5% | 159–173 | 156–174 | 151–179 | 147–183 |
| Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 169 | 165 | 4% | 158–171 | 155–173 | 151–177 | 147–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 117 | 160 | 3% | 153–173 | 149–173 | 149–176 | 146–183 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 173 | 163 | 2% | 152–167 | 150–171 | 148–175 | 142–181 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu | 167 | 159 | 2% | 150–166 | 147–169 | 146–172 | 140–181 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu | 163 | 153 | 0% | 143–160 | 141–163 | 139–165 | 134–170 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco | 161 | 150 | 0% | 140–158 | 136–159 | 135–163 | 130–166 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos | 156 | 145 | 0% | 136–152 | 133–154 | 129–157 | 124–164 |
| Partido Popular – Vox | 137 | 114 | 0% | 106–124 | 102–128 | 100–130 | 96–131 |
| Partido Popular | 137 | 98 | 0% | 91–107 | 88–112 | 84–112 | 81–117 |
| Partido Socialista Obrero Español | 85 | 93 | 0% | 89–102 | 88–105 | 86–108 | 83–113 |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 240 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 245 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 246 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 247 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 248 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 249 | 2% | 98% | |
| 250 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 251 | 3% | 95% | |
| 252 | 4% | 92% | |
| 253 | 2% | 88% | |
| 254 | 1.0% | 86% | Last Result |
| 255 | 2% | 85% | |
| 256 | 2% | 83% | Median |
| 257 | 4% | 81% | |
| 258 | 8% | 77% | |
| 259 | 37% | 69% | |
| 260 | 2% | 31% | |
| 261 | 5% | 30% | |
| 262 | 2% | 25% | |
| 263 | 5% | 23% | |
| 264 | 6% | 18% | |
| 265 | 3% | 12% | |
| 266 | 2% | 10% | |
| 267 | 2% | 8% | |
| 268 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 270 | 2% | 5% | |
| 271 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 272 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 275 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 276 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 186 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 189 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 195 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 196 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 199 | 4% | 94% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 201 | 5% | 90% | |
| 202 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 203 | 2% | 84% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 205 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 206 | 4% | 81% | |
| 207 | 3% | 77% | Median |
| 208 | 26% | 74% | |
| 209 | 2% | 48% | |
| 210 | 17% | 47% | |
| 211 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 212 | 0.8% | 29% | |
| 213 | 2% | 29% | |
| 214 | 1.5% | 27% | |
| 215 | 4% | 25% | |
| 216 | 2% | 21% | |
| 217 | 1.1% | 19% | |
| 218 | 6% | 18% | |
| 219 | 2% | 12% | |
| 220 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 221 | 5% | 10% | |
| 222 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 223 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 226 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 228 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 230 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 232 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 178 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 179 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 183 | 2% | 95% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 186 | 5% | 92% | |
| 187 | 0.8% | 86% | |
| 188 | 1.0% | 86% | |
| 189 | 8% | 85% | |
| 190 | 1.3% | 77% | |
| 191 | 3% | 76% | Median |
| 192 | 5% | 73% | |
| 193 | 8% | 68% | |
| 194 | 17% | 61% | |
| 195 | 0.9% | 44% | |
| 196 | 22% | 43% | |
| 197 | 1.3% | 21% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 199 | 6% | 19% | |
| 200 | 4% | 13% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 204 | 3% | 7% | |
| 205 | 2% | 4% | |
| 206 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 211 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 169 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 170 | 2% | 95% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 172 | 3% | 93% | |
| 173 | 2% | 90% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 175 | 10% | 87% | |
| 176 | 17% | 77% | Median, Majority |
| 177 | 1.5% | 60% | |
| 178 | 3% | 59% | |
| 179 | 28% | 56% | |
| 180 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 181 | 2% | 27% | |
| 182 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 183 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 184 | 0.9% | 24% | |
| 185 | 2% | 23% | |
| 186 | 5% | 21% | |
| 187 | 2% | 16% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 189 | 3% | 14% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 191 | 7% | 10% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 196 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 158 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 159 | 6% | 96% | |
| 160 | 3% | 90% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 87% | |
| 162 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 163 | 3% | 85% | |
| 164 | 5% | 82% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 77% | |
| 166 | 0.6% | 76% | |
| 167 | 1.0% | 75% | Median |
| 168 | 0.8% | 74% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 74% | |
| 170 | 3% | 72% | |
| 171 | 28% | 70% | |
| 172 | 18% | 42% | |
| 173 | 1.4% | 24% | |
| 174 | 6% | 23% | |
| 175 | 4% | 17% | |
| 176 | 4% | 12% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 178 | 2% | 8% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 180 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 160 | 1.5% | 95% | |
| 161 | 2% | 94% | |
| 162 | 2% | 92% | |
| 163 | 3% | 90% | |
| 164 | 4% | 87% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 166 | 19% | 82% | |
| 167 | 5% | 63% | |
| 168 | 2% | 58% | Median |
| 169 | 2% | 56% | |
| 170 | 8% | 54% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 46% | |
| 172 | 2% | 46% | |
| 173 | 2% | 44% | |
| 174 | 2% | 42% | Last Result |
| 175 | 32% | 40% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 8% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 178 | 2% | 6% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 180 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Coalición Canaria–Partido Nacionalista Canario
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 156 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 157 | 2% | 94% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 159 | 5% | 91% | |
| 160 | 4% | 86% | |
| 161 | 2% | 83% | |
| 162 | 6% | 81% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 74% | |
| 164 | 5% | 73% | Median |
| 165 | 16% | 68% | |
| 166 | 3% | 52% | |
| 167 | 3% | 49% | |
| 168 | 23% | 46% | |
| 169 | 7% | 23% | |
| 170 | 2% | 16% | Last Result |
| 171 | 3% | 14% | |
| 172 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 173 | 5% | 10% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 5% | Majority |
| 177 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 151 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 154 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 156 | 3% | 94% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 158 | 4% | 91% | |
| 159 | 4% | 87% | |
| 160 | 2% | 83% | |
| 161 | 3% | 82% | |
| 162 | 5% | 79% | |
| 163 | 17% | 73% | Median |
| 164 | 6% | 56% | |
| 165 | 2% | 51% | |
| 166 | 3% | 49% | |
| 167 | 2% | 46% | |
| 168 | 21% | 43% | |
| 169 | 8% | 22% | Last Result |
| 170 | 2% | 14% | |
| 171 | 3% | 12% | |
| 172 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 173 | 4% | 8% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 4% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Ciudadanos–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 148 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 4% | 98% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 152 | 2% | 93% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 154 | 22% | 89% | |
| 155 | 3% | 67% | |
| 156 | 3% | 64% | |
| 157 | 2% | 62% | |
| 158 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 159 | 1.3% | 52% | |
| 160 | 3% | 50% | |
| 161 | 20% | 48% | |
| 162 | 2% | 28% | |
| 163 | 4% | 26% | |
| 164 | 0.8% | 22% | |
| 165 | 3% | 21% | |
| 166 | 1.4% | 18% | |
| 167 | 2% | 17% | |
| 168 | 1.5% | 15% | |
| 169 | 2% | 13% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 173 | 5% | 10% | |
| 174 | 2% | 5% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 3% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 149 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 150 | 2% | 96% | |
| 151 | 4% | 94% | |
| 152 | 2% | 91% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 154 | 4% | 87% | |
| 155 | 2% | 84% | |
| 156 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 157 | 5% | 81% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 76% | |
| 159 | 0.9% | 75% | |
| 160 | 3% | 74% | Median |
| 161 | 0.6% | 71% | |
| 162 | 2% | 71% | |
| 163 | 23% | 69% | |
| 164 | 5% | 46% | |
| 165 | 2% | 40% | |
| 166 | 22% | 39% | |
| 167 | 8% | 17% | |
| 168 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 170 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 171 | 3% | 6% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 4% | Last Result |
| 174 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 145 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 147 | 3% | 97% | |
| 148 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 149 | 3% | 93% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 151 | 2% | 90% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 153 | 8% | 87% | |
| 154 | 3% | 79% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 76% | |
| 156 | 2% | 75% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 73% | Median |
| 158 | 3% | 72% | |
| 159 | 23% | 70% | |
| 160 | 2% | 47% | |
| 161 | 4% | 45% | |
| 162 | 5% | 41% | |
| 163 | 17% | 35% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 165 | 5% | 18% | |
| 166 | 5% | 13% | |
| 167 | 2% | 8% | Last Result |
| 168 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 2% | Majority |
| 177 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco – Euskal Herria Bildu
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 139 | 2% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 143 | 4% | 94% | |
| 144 | 8% | 90% | |
| 145 | 2% | 82% | |
| 146 | 2% | 80% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 148 | 2% | 78% | |
| 149 | 1.2% | 76% | Median |
| 150 | 3% | 75% | |
| 151 | 16% | 72% | |
| 152 | 3% | 56% | |
| 153 | 21% | 52% | |
| 154 | 8% | 31% | |
| 155 | 4% | 24% | |
| 156 | 1.5% | 20% | |
| 157 | 3% | 18% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 159 | 3% | 15% | |
| 160 | 6% | 12% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 163 | 1.5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 164 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0% | 2% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos – Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 135 | 2% | 98% | |
| 136 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 139 | 2% | 94% | |
| 140 | 4% | 92% | |
| 141 | 1.0% | 88% | |
| 142 | 4% | 87% | |
| 143 | 6% | 83% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 145 | 3% | 77% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 74% | |
| 147 | 1.4% | 74% | Median |
| 148 | 18% | 72% | |
| 149 | 2% | 54% | |
| 150 | 2% | 51% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 49% | |
| 152 | 28% | 48% | |
| 153 | 3% | 20% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 155 | 3% | 16% | |
| 156 | 2% | 13% | |
| 157 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 158 | 5% | 11% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 162 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 166 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español – Unidos Podemos
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 135 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 136 | 4% | 92% | |
| 137 | 5% | 88% | |
| 138 | 5% | 83% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 79% | |
| 140 | 2% | 78% | |
| 141 | 2% | 76% | |
| 142 | 2% | 73% | Median |
| 143 | 0.8% | 71% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 70% | |
| 145 | 37% | 69% | |
| 146 | 3% | 32% | |
| 147 | 11% | 28% | |
| 148 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 149 | 3% | 17% | |
| 150 | 2% | 14% | |
| 151 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 152 | 5% | 12% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 154 | 2% | 6% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 4% | Last Result |
| 157 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 101 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 102 | 2% | 96% | |
| 103 | 2% | 95% | |
| 104 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 105 | 2% | 93% | |
| 106 | 7% | 91% | |
| 107 | 2% | 84% | |
| 108 | 6% | 82% | |
| 109 | 2% | 76% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 73% | |
| 111 | 17% | 72% | Median |
| 112 | 3% | 55% | |
| 113 | 2% | 53% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 50% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 116 | 24% | 49% | |
| 117 | 2% | 25% | |
| 118 | 2% | 22% | |
| 119 | 3% | 20% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 17% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 122 | 5% | 15% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 126 | 2% | 8% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 128 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 130 | 4% | 5% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 89 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 90 | 2% | 93% | |
| 91 | 8% | 92% | |
| 92 | 3% | 84% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 95 | 7% | 80% | |
| 96 | 2% | 73% | |
| 97 | 6% | 72% | |
| 98 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 99 | 4% | 49% | |
| 100 | 3% | 44% | |
| 101 | 3% | 41% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 38% | |
| 103 | 1.1% | 38% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 37% | |
| 105 | 26% | 36% | |
| 106 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 107 | 2% | 10% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 112 | 5% | 7% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partido Socialista Obrero Español
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 88 | 5% | 96% | |
| 89 | 5% | 90% | |
| 90 | 2% | 85% | |
| 91 | 24% | 83% | |
| 92 | 6% | 59% | |
| 93 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 94 | 9% | 50% | |
| 95 | 1.4% | 40% | |
| 96 | 18% | 39% | |
| 97 | 2% | 21% | |
| 98 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 99 | 3% | 18% | |
| 100 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 102 | 5% | 13% | |
| 103 | 2% | 8% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 108 | 2% | 4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 110 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Celeste-Tel
- Commissioner(s): eldiario.es
- Fieldwork period: 2–8 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.30%